Sosa For Soriano??

During my latest viewing of many baseball websites, blogs, and forums I happened to see some articles and comments about the Chicago Cubs trading their beloved hero, Sammy Sosa to the Texas Rangers for free-swinging Alfonso Soriano.

Now I am not sure of any other players in the deal. I've heard names like Chan-Ho Park, and Mark Grudzielanek, but for now I am just going to look at Soriano and Sosa.

I want to see if this trade would be a good or bad trade for the Rangers. At first glimpse I thought, a young Alfonso Soriano for the aging Sosa would be a bad trade for the Rangers. Let's see if my initial reaction was correct.

First I checked Sosa's numbers the last three years to see how bad his recent decline really is.

Here are his numbers the previous three years:

2004: .253/.332/.517, .849 OPS, 133/56 (2.37) K/BB, 0 SB, 0 CS, 35 HR, 30.0 VORP

2003: .279/.358/.553, .911 OPS, 143/62 K/BB (2.31), 0 SB, 1 CS, 40 HR, 44.5 VORP

2002: .288/.399/.594, .993 OPS, 144/103 K/BB (1.40), 2 SB, 0 CS, 49 HR, 70.5 VORP

Every single category on the previous lines, beside SB's and CS's--which aren't relevant for Sosa anymore--, are in a steady decline.

Let's look at the drop in each category (beside SB):

Difference in 2003 compared to 2002 (2002 #'s minus 2003 #'s)

AVG: (-.009)
OBP: (-.041)
SLG: (-.036)
OPS: (-.082)
K/BB: (+0.91) Positive numbers are, obviously, bad in this case.
HR: (-9)
VORP: (-26.0)

Now, a look at the drop from 2003 to 2004 (2003 #'s minus 2004 #'s)

AVG: (-.026)
OBP: (-.026)
SLG: (-.041)
OPS: (-.062)
K/BB: (+0.06) Positive numbers are, obviously, bad in this case.
HR: (-5)
VORP: (-14.5)

Now that we know the numbers, lets project Sosa's 2005 season using the average drop in his last two seasons, and prorating them for 2005.

The upcoming prorated season most likely WILL NOT happen, but I do this just to show a "Worst-Case Scenario" for 2005.

Sammy Sosa 2005 prorated Worst-Case Scenario Season:

2005: .232/.287/.469, 756 OPS, 128/33 (3.88) K/BB, 28 HR, ***Cannot figure out VORP for next year***

Now that we see the Sammy Sosa's Worst-case Scenario 2005 Season, lets have a look at his Best Case Scenario season.

To figure out a "Best-case Scenario Season" I used 3/4 of the difference between Sosa's best season (2001), and his last season (2004), and then added that difference onto his 2004 numbers.

Sammy Sosa 2005 Best-Case Scenario Season:

**Again, since Sammy Sosa does not steal bases anymore, his stolen base statistics will not be used**

2005: .312/.416/.690, 1.106 OPS, 148/101 (1.46) K/BB, 57 HR

Again, this season will probably not happen for Sosa in 2005.

So now the last step to figuring out a probable 2005 season for Sammy Sosa is to "split the difference" between his Best, and Worst-Case Scenario 2005 Seasons.

Sammy Sosa 2005 "split difference" season:

.276/.362/.593, .955 OPS, 138/67 (2.06) K/BB, 43 HR

Thats a very good season. Now let's compare this 2005 version of Slammin' Sammy to a "split the difference" 2005 season by Alfonso Soriano.

First, let's look at Alfonso Soriano's last 3 Seasons:

2002: .300/.332/.547, .879 OPS, 157/23 (6.83) K/BB, 41 SB, 12 CS, 77 SB%, 28 HR, 77.6 VORP
2003: .290/.338/.525, .863 OPS, 130/38 (3.42) K/BB, 35 SB, 8 CS, 81 SB%, 38 HR, 69.9 VORP
2004: .280/.324/.484, .808 OPS, 121/33 (3.67) K/BB, 18 SB, 5 CS, 78 SB%, 39 HR, 40.5 VORP

Now, using the same method I used to project Sammy Sosa's Worst-Case Scenario season, here is Soriano's Worst-Cast scenario season:

**Please note that even though Soriano's numbers have declined every year, he has actually improved his K/BB from his ridiculous 2002 season. Since his other numbers continue to decline in spite of the improvement in the K/BB, I will continue to project his K's and BB's on the same curve as his other numbers. Basically, what I am saying is that, in Soriano's Worst-Case Scenario season, his K/BB ratio will actually improve, while his other numbers will worsen--much like he has done throughout his brief career.***

Alfonso Soriano's 2005 prorated Worst-Case Scenario Season:

2005: .266/.318/.443, .761 OPS, 104/38 (2.74) K/BB, 7 SB, 2 CS, 78 SB%, 22 HR

Now, using Soriano's 2002 Season as his best year, I am going to use 3/4 of the difference between that season and this latest season (2004), to figure out Soriano's Best-Case scenario season; just as I figured out Sosa's.

Alfonso Soriano's 2005 prorated Best-Case Scenario Season:

2005: .295/.344/.533, 877 OPS, 148/41 (3.60) K/BB, 35 SB, 10 CS, 78 SB%, 36 HR

Now, let's "split the difference" between Soriano's Worst and Best-Case scenario 2005 seasons to find out his probable 2005 season.

Alfonso Soriano 2005 "split difference" season:

2005: .283/.334/.493, .827 OPS, 126/40 (3.15) K/BB, 21 SB, 6 CS, 78 SB%, 29 HR

Now let's look at Sammy Sosa's, and Alfonso Soriano's "split differences" seasons.

Alfonso Soriano
2005: .283/.334/.493, .827 OPS, 126/40 (3.15) K/BB, 21 SB, 6 CS, 78 SB%, 29 HR

Sammy Sosa
2005: .276/.362/.593, .955 OPS, 138/67 (2.06) K/BB, 43 HR

Sammy Sosa, according to this system, will have a much better year at the plate than Soriano will. Soriano will steal bases though, while Sosa will steal none.

While SB's are a huge part of baseball, I believe that they are not as meaningful as a player's performance at the plate (AVG/OBP/SLG, OPS, and HR), because "you can't steal first base."

It is clear to see that if the Rangers completed this trade, they would be looking to Sosa to pay dividends immediately, which might be a stretch because of his age. The problem is that they couldn't count on Sosa for too much longer after that.

If one were to take into accordance the fact that Sosa is going to be 36 years old next year, with Soriano only being 29 years old, then it is reasonable to believe that Sosa's 2005 season will be closer to his Worst-Case scenario season, while Soriano's season will be closer to his Best-Case Scenario Season.

One could also look at the fact that if the trade were to happen, Sosa would be moving into The Ballpark at Arlington, a "severe hitter's park"-according to Baseball Prospectus, and Soriano would be moving into Wrigley Field, a "slight pitchers park."

Now, I cannot make a projection on how each players season will be affected by their age, except for the fact that it is widely known--and common sense for that matter--that players abilities decline with age.

So, as stated earlier, Soriano's numbers have a better chance of ending up on the "better side" of his "split difference"season, while Sosa's numbers have a better chance of ending up on the "worse side" of his split difference season. As a matter of fact, since Soriano is only 29 next year, he actually has a chance to surpass his best-case scenario season; Sosa also has a chance to do the same--but a much smaller chance because of his age. For the sake of argument though, I will keep both player's best-case scenario season as is.

I can, however, project Sosa's and Soriano's numbers in their new ballparks if the trade were to happen by using the ballpark factors provided by Baseball Prospectus.

Here are Sammy Sosa's, and Alfonso Soriano's "split difference" season, park-adjusted:

***Note, only hitting numbers (AVG/OBP/SLG, OPS, and HR will be affected***

Alfonso Soriano
2005 (in Wrigley Field): .276/.327/.481, .808 OPS, 28 HR

Sammy Sosa
2005 (in Arlington): .290/.379/.625, 1.004 OPS, 45 HR

Wow, The Ballpark in Arlington really is a "severe hitter's park." Soriano's number did slightly dip in Wrigley field.

So now the question is, "Even though Sosa may decline because of age, will a 2005 in decline by Sosa, in Arlington, be as good as a better-than-average 2005 by Soriano, in Arlington?"

The answer to that question is that a declined season by Sosa, if only a slight decline, in Arlington, against a improved season by Soriano in Arlington, would still favor Sosa, except for Stolen Bases.

So my initial reaction wasn't wrong or right. If the Rangers are looking for a short-term answer, Sosa could be that answer--especially in Arlington. If they are looking toward the future, Soriano is the answer.

So now I must ask, "Are the Rangers willing to lose Soriano, when he is only 29 years old next year, in exchange for a possible great one season by 36 year old Sammy Sosa?"

Now I cannot answer that question, but I believe with the core of young players that Texas has on it's Major League Club now (Young, Tiexara, Blalock, Soriano, Nix, Mench, Drese...), they definitely have a close eye on the future, and look like they want to keep Soriano.

Then again, who's to say that maybe the Rangers wouldn't be willing to trade away one of their youngsters, since they have so many, for a veteran, proven leader.

It is also important to remember that by not trading Soriano, the Rangers would keep him in the the bandbox that they call home, The Ballpark in Arlington. So Soriano would stay the benefactor of the ballpark's small dimensions.

It is my belief that if the Rangers were to go through with this trade, all they would be doing is reducing their odds of having multiple above-average years turned-in by one of their players (either Sosa or Soriano) in the next three to five years.

Now that my initial question, "Is this a good or bad trade for the Rangers?" has no definitive answer, I will give my opinion on what I would do.

I think it would be a good trade for the Rangers organization because they have so many young players that they can afford to get rid of one of them and bring in a proven veteran whose numbers will only get better in Arlington. I would do the trade straight up, without looking at the money aspect. If I do look at the money aspect though, this is what I see:

"If Sosa were to stay with the Cubs next season, they would owe him $17 million for the year and face either an $18 million option in 2006 or a $4.5 million buyout.

If he's traded, however, the 2006 option is guaranteed and 2007 becomes a $19 million option year with a $4.5 million buyout."

-Courtesy of T.J. Quinn, writer for the New York Daily News.

So after looking at the money, of course I would not complete the trade. Even though I believe it is a good trade for Texas.

If other players are involved in this deal though, everything changes.

Also, it is important to remember that these numbers are just projections, and nowhere near fact. I do believe they are a good base though, for comparing these players.

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.