World Series Prediction (Part 4 - Astros)

When I originally wrote my "World Series Prediction" articles, I left the Houston Astros out of that analysis but said that if they got to within one half game of the NL wild card, I would perform the necessary analysis on them. Well here it is, September 29, and the Astros are one half game behind the Cubs for the Wild Card.

So as promised, here is their analysis comparing them to the Average World Series Champion of the past three years (AWSC).

****Please read the previous installments of "World Series Predictions", if you haven't already, to find out what I am analyzing, and comparing. And to find out what numbers I used in the comparison. Basically... one must at least glance through the previous articles to find out the "who, what, where, when, why, and how" of this article.****

Category (AWSC)-Team/Stat(Number)/Points/

Career Year Players (8)--Hou/3/-1
Career Year Pitchers (5)-Hou/1/-1
Career Year Hitters (3)--Hou/2/-1

Breakout Year Players (6)--Hou/1/-1
Breakout Year Pitchers (4)--Hou/1/-1
Breakout Year Hitters (2)--Hou/0/-1

Players +70 VORP (1)--Hou/2/+1
Players +60 VORP (1)--Hou/3/+1
Players +50 VORP (2)--Hou/3/+1
Players +40 VORP (5)--Hou/5/0
Players +35 VORP (7)--Hou/7/0

Pitchers +70 VORP (1)--Hou/0/-1
Pitchers +60 VORP (1)--Hou/1/0
Pitchers +50 VORP (1)--Hou/1/0
Pitchers +40 VORP (2)--Hou/2/0
Pitchers +35 VORP (3)--Hou/3/0

Hitters +70 VORP (0)--Hou/2/+1
Hitters +60 VORP (0)--Hou/2/+1
Hitters +50 VORP (1)--Hou/2/+1
Hitters +40 VORP (3)--Hou/3/0
Hitters +35 VORP (4)--Hou/4/0

Offensive Team Stats

AVG (.272)---Hou/.266/0
OBP (.338)---Hou/.342/0
SLG (.432)---Hou/.434/0
HITS (1519)--Hou/1451/-1/
HR (172)---Hou/181/0
K (945)----Hou/997/-1/
BB (521)---Hou/588/+1
XBH (512)--Hou/512/0
ISOP (.160)--Hou/.167/0
SECA (.264)--Hou/.285/+1
BB/K (0.55)--Hou/0.59/0
RUNS (807)---Hou/794/-1

Pitching Teams Stats

ERA (3.87)--Hou/4.08/-1/
BAA (.251)--Hou/.258/0
K/9 (7.07)--Hou/7.93/+1
K/BB (2.29)--Hou/2.40/+1
WHIP (1.29)--Hou/1.35/0
OBP (.315)---Hou/.325/0
SLG (.397)---Hou/.417/-1
K (1143)---Hou/1264/+1
BB (500)--Hou/526/-1
HR (192)--Hou/174/+1

Career Year Players for Houston(2004 prorated VORP 13 or more runs above career average VORP)

--------Breakout Year indicated in bold (Career Year with less than 3 QY)----------

Team- Player/2004 prorated VORP-Career Average VORP

Houston- Berkman/81.3-62.45, Beltran/71.0-43.54, Lidge/37.8-17.0


Players over 35 VORP for Houston(VORP is prorated)

Houston- Bagwell-36.0, Berkman-81.3, Kent-46.8, Beltran-71.0, Lidge-37.8, Clemens-63.1, Oswalt-49.7

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total Similarity Points for Houston- (-1)

Here is Houston's total similarity points stacked against the other National League Playoff contenders similarity points (as figured out in earlier articles).

------Point totals closest to zero indicates more similarity to AWSC. Negative point totals indicate that team is worse than AWSC. Positive point totals indicate team is better than AWSC.-------------

St. Louis- 4
Los Angeles- (-6)
Atlanta- (-7)
Chicago- 9
San Francisco- (-5)
Houston- (-1)

As we can see, Houston is now the closest to the AWSC, they are a little worse than the AWSC, but they are closer. Because of this, I change my prediction to the Houston Astros as the team to represent the National League in the World Series.

Obviously, this prediction can only become true if Houston does make the playoffs. If they do not, my prediction will return to St. Louis as of the beginning of the playoffs (based on similarity points closest to zero).

For the current moment in time (September, 29 2004 @ 6:53 PM EST) though, I am predicting an Astros vs. Yankees World Series.

As for my prediction of the winner of the World Series, that goes to the Yankees.

The Yankees Total Similarity points = 1.

I know that both the Astros and Yankees are equal distances from zero, but since the Yankees are one point away from zero on the positive side, as opposed to the Astros being only one point away on the negative side of zero, I have to go with the Yankees as the winner, because they are a better team according to this comparison.

Now the analysis is complete.

Final Predictions

National League Champion= Houston Astros (if they make playoffs, if not, my prediction is St. Louis)

American League Champion= New York Yankees

World Series Champion= New York Yankees (I predict the Yankees will beat either Houston, or St. Louis.)

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.