I Hope Ben Sheets Doesn't Know Where I Live

I think I may have cursed Ben Sheets. Since the day I wrote my article about Sheets being better than Jason Schmidt of the San Francisco Giants (which I later found out was not true, BUT BARELY), Sheets has had three below average starts.

The article "Sheets or Schmidt?" was written and posted on August 11, 2004, since then Sheets has started on August 12 against Atlanta, then August 18, and 23rd against the Cubs. Here are his pitching lines in those three starts:

August 12(Braves): 8.0 IP, 7 Hits, 4 ER, 3 HR, 2 BB, 13 K
August 18(Cubs): 7.0 IP, 9 Hits, 5 ER, 1 HR, 0 BB, 8 K
August 23(Cubs): 6.0 IP, 10 Hits, 6 ER, 0 HR, 1 BB, 5 K

TOTAL: 21.0 IP, 26 Hits, 15 ER, 4 HR, 3 BB, 26 K (ERA = 6.42)

At the time of my article Ben Sheets numbers were as follows:

156.0 IP, 130 Hits, 16 HR, 171/21 K/BB, 2.56 ERA, 44.2 VORP

His numbers now stand at:

177.0 IP, 156 Hits, 20 HR, 197/24 K/BB, 3.10 ERA, 43.9 VORP
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Although these have been three bad starts, the good sign is that Sheets is still having no trouble striking batters out, and is also not walking them. He is just giving up to0 many hits(Hits/IP = 1.24). Which is not good....but not nearly as bad as for instance, walking a batter an inning with the same amount of strikeouts as he has.

Take a look at his K/BB in those three starts, they are a mind-boggling 26/3(8.67 K's for every BB).

So while his ERA, HR's allowed and Hits per inning(26/21) have risen badly in these last three starts. I do not see this as a late season collapse by Sheets.

Please note how Sheet's VORP has only dropped 0.3 runs. This is a clear example of why VORP is the best statistic for measuring a player's performance.

This rise in ERA, Hits allowed, and HR allowed show a big drop-off in performance; but when you look at the K/BB ratio, it is clear that he is just running in to some bad luck(possibly caused by me).

Looking at his VORP, which put all statistics into account, you can easily see that, in reality, he has not had that bad of a drop-off.

The amount of hits he has given up in those starts do not in any way coincide with his strikeout numbers.

A pitcher striking out almost nine times as many hitters as he walks, and also striking out more than a batter an inning(26 K's in 21 IP), is doing just fine, and good numbers will follow.

So even though I have cursed Sheets with apparent bad luck, I believe he will bounce back and finish strong.

Frank Bundy III

Please email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com, with any comments, concerns, questions, or suggestions.