No Randy...No Problem

I'm sure Paul DePodesta, General Manager of the LA Dodgers, planned on trading newly acquired pitcher Brad Penny, and 1B Hee Seop Choi (both from the Florida Marlins), to Arizona for Steve Finley and The Big Unit-Randy Johnson. But things didn't quite work out that way; they only got Steve Finley for 3 Minor Leaguers.

So on the surface, it appears the Dodgers were losers in this two day trading flurry between them, Arizona and Florida. But once you take a closer look at the numbers, you see that the Dodgers turned out to be the winners.

First off lets review the trade and what players were exchanged. First the Dodgers gave the Florida Marlins 32 year old catcher Paul LoDuca, 28 year old OF Juan Encarnacion, and 30 year old RP Guillermo Mota, in exchange for 26 year old SP Brad Penny, 25 year old 1B Hee Seop Choi, and minor league pitcher Billy Murphy.

Then the next day the Dodgers traded Murphy, along with 25 year old minor league catcher Koyie Hill, and 23 year old minor league OF Reggie Abercrombie, to the Diamondbacks for 39 year old OF Steve Finley, and 36 year old catcher Brent Mayne.

The deals Breakdown as follows:

Dodgers Receive
P- B. Penny
1B- H. Choi
OF- S. Finley
C - B. Mayne

Marlins Receive
OF-J. Encarnacion
RP-G. Mota
C- P. LoDuca

Diamondbacks Receive
OF-R. Abercrombie
P-B. Murphy
C- K. Hill

So now we must analyze the numbers of the players exchanged, and the numbers of the players whom they are replacing, to see who came out ahead and by how much. The primary statistic I will be using to compare players is VORP-Value Over Replacement Player.

VORP is defined as: The number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-lever player would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances, at that players position.

A Replacement Player is defined as: A player who hits as far below the league positional average as the league backups do relative to the league average, who plays average defense for the position, and is a breakeven base-stealer and baserunner.


*****Stat lines next to hitters name are as follows: VORP, Avg/OBP/Slg, K/BB
Example Steve Finley (23.6, 275/333/490, 52/40) means Finley has a 23.6 VORP, a .275 Batting Average, a .333 On-Base Percentage, a .490 Slugging Percentage, and has struck out 52 time against 40 base on balls.*****

*****Stat lines next to a pitchers name are as follows: VORP, ERA, K:BB, IP.
Example Brad Penny (33.2, 3.15 ERA, 105 /39 K:BB, 131.3 IP) means Penny has a 33.2 VORP, a 3.15 ERA, has struck out 105 batters against walking 39, in 131.3 Innings pitched.*****


So lets begin. We'll start by looking at Finley replacing Encarnacion in the OF for the Dodgers. The Dodgers get Finley's numbers (23.6, 275/333/490, 52/40) to replace Encarnacion's absolutely horrible numbers of (-0.5, 235/289/417. 53/21). Finley is a huge upgrade. The Dodger gain 24.1 runs on this deal.

Next lets look at Encarnacion replacing Jeff Conine in Florida's OF. Actually, Conine will be moving to 1B to replace Choi, but anyway, we look at Encarnacion replacing Conine in the outfield. Encarnacion's numbers(-0.5, 235/289/417. 53/21), are replacing Conine's number of ( 8.7, 273/332/419, 50/31). Encarnacion is an outrageous downgrade. On this deal the Marlins lost 9.2 runs.

Now, since we just looked at Jeff Conine's numbers, let's have look at him replacing Hee Seop Choi at 1B for the Marlins. Choi's unbelievable numbers (27.9, 270/385/495, 79/53), are being replaced with Conine's ( 8.7, 273/332/419, 50/31). Losing Choi was a clear downgrade. Again the Marlins lose runs on this deal. This time the amount is 19.2 runs.

Next, let's stay with Choi, he should be replacing Shawn Green in LA at 1B. Subsequently moving Green back to his natural position of OF. Again we look at Choi's awesome numbers (27.9, 270/385/495, 79/53), and use that to replace Green's numbers (19.9, 264/343/435, 73/49), to get more runs added to the Dodger's lineup. Choi is a clear improvement. This time the Dodgers gained 8.0 runs.

Now we look at Shawn Green being able to move back to his natural position, OF. Here he replaces Jason Werth, as much as it hurts, and the Dodgers get another improvement. They replace Werth's numbers (10.1, 279/355/525, 39/14), with Green's (19.9, 264/343/435, 73/49), and they gain 9.8 runs on the deal. Another clear improvement.

Next, we go to Paul LoDuca, who was having a fabulous season for LA; and we discuss him replacing Mike Redmond out in Florida. This one isn't even close. LoDuca's numbers of (22.5, 301/349/444, 27/22) replace Redmond's riduculous numbers of (0.6, 245/302/332, 24/12). The Marlins finally gain runs. On this deal the Marlins gain 21.9 runs.

And since were discussing Paul LoDuca, lets look at who will be replacing him in LA. The new catcher in LA will be Brent Mayne (1.1, 255/333/340, 18/13). This is obviously a downgrade from LoDuca's numbers (22.5, 301/349/444, 27/22). On this deal, the Dodgers lose 21.4 runs.

Now let's get to the pitching. We'll first look at the Dodgers acquiring Brad Penny. With Penny now in town, the 34 year old Wilson Alvarez moves into the bullpen (subsequently to replace Mota). But anyways, Penny's phenomenal numbers (33.2 VORP, 3.15 ERA, 105/39 K:BB, 131.3 IP), replace Alvarez's impressive numbers(20.8 VORP, 3.38 ERA, 71/22 K:BB 85.3 IP) for another improvement going the Dodgers way. This replacement results in 12.4 runs for the Dodgers.

Now lets look at Alvarez replacing Guillermo Mota. This one is fairly close. Alvarez (20.8 VORP, 3.38 ERA, 71/22 K:BB 85.3 IP) replaces Mota's numbers of (24.4 VORP, 2.14 ERA, 52/27 K:BB, 63 IP) in the LA bullpen. This change only results in a loss of 3.6 runs for the Dodgers.

Now we have to wonder who will replace Brad Penny in the Florida rotation. Well, that question was answered by the Marlins, by acquiring 30 year old SP Ismail Valdez from the Padres. Let's look at Valdez's numbers (-2.8 VORP, 5.53 ERA, 37/31 K:BB, 114 IP), and use them to replace Penny's numbers (33.2 VORP, 3.15 ERA, 105/39 K:BB, 131.3 IP). This isn't even close folks, the Marlins lose 36 runs on this tremendous downgrade.

Now, the last piece of the puzzle, whom does Guillermo Mota replace in Florida. Well the answer to that--since he is a relief pitcher--is nobody. His numbers (24.4 VORP, 2.14 ERA, 52/27 K:BB, 63 IP) are just simply added to Florida's total. So, it doesn't take a genius to figure out that the Marlins gained 24.4 runs on the deal. A great improvement to the Marlins bullpen.

All right, now we've looked at every player and his replacement, or who he is replacing. We can finally figure out who the winners were on this trade. Let's break it all down.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Replace J.Encarnacion With S. Finley = +24.1

Replace S. Green With H. Choi = +8.0

Replace J. Werth with S. Green = +9.8

Replace P. LoDuca with B. Mayne = -21.4

Replace W. Alvarez with B. Penny = +12.4

Replace G. Mota with W. Alvarez = -3.6

Total Runs Gained by Dodgers =29.3 runs

Florida Marlins

Replace J. Conine with J. Encarnacion = -9.2

Replace H. Choi with J. Conine = -19.2

Replace M. Redmond with P. LoDuca = +21.9

Replace B. Penny with I. Valdez = -36.0

Add G. Mota = +24.4

Total Runs gained by Marlins = -18.1 runs

There you have it. The Dodgers gained 29.3 runs, while the Marlins lost 18.1 runs.

So, now we can clearly see who made out on this trade. But we should also see that the Dodgers added a 26 year old pitcher, and a 25 year old 1B in this deal. Not only did Paul DePodesta improve his team in the short run, he improved the Dodgers for many years in the future. What a deal!!!

DePodesta did all this while the youngest player the Marlins received was Encarnacion(28). The Marlins not only worsened their team, they sacrificed their future by trading Penny(26) and Choi(25).

And by the way, I would bet my life savings that Mr. Depodesta had already thought of this scenario(not getting Randy Johnson). And that is why he made these trades.

I'm sorry to repeat myself, but what a deal.

Lastly, let's not forget the all important minor leaguers in this deal. P- Billy Murphy, now on the Diamondbacks is a good pitcher in the minors with a 113/59 K:BB, and a 4.08 ERA. Also C Koyie Hill, who I believe is going to get playing time with the Diamondbacks, has a minor league VORP of 13.1, and a .286 batting average. These are two good players that the Diamondbacks received. But OF Reggie Abercrombie on the other hand is not so good. He has posted a -9.8 minor league VORP, with a 173 batting average.

Now, as a final thought, I'd like to point out that the Marlins must know the same things I know, and must have had a reason to make this trade--although I can't see it. But I do not believe that general managers can lack this much education, even common sense. So maybe Penny and Choi were un-signable in the future, or something. At the moment I do not know the details of their contracts.

But unless that is the reason, sacrificing future talent, that is already performing prominently at the big league level, for upgrades in the bullpen and at catcher-whose upgrade isn't even as great as the loss of the young players current level of performance-boggles my mind, and it should yours.

Frank E. Bundy III