More Reasons why Cleveland isn't in First

As I was looking through my own website, after seeing Cleveland dismantle the Twins tonight 8-2, I took a second look at my article "Why isn't Cleveland in First?" After re-reading the article, where I decided to only use offensive production and starting pitching for comparison, I decided I would continue this article with a bullpen comparison.

I'm sorry Cleveland fans, I know that you already know that this is where Minnesota will just rocket past you, but I have to do this analysis.

I compared the numbers (VORP, K/BB ratio, ERA, IP) of each teams top three relievers by innings pitched, and then each of their respective "closers."

***Since Cleveland used 3 or 4 closers in the first half, I just used the top four relievers by innings for them. I did not use Bob Wickman since he just came back of the disabled list. But the good thing for Cleveland fans, Jose Jiminez will not be in this comparison, due to lack of innings.***

Here are each teams top 4 relievers and their numbers(ranked by VORP):

Cleveland:
1. David Riske- 11.6 VORP, 58/30 K:BB, 4.34 ERA, 58.0 IP
2. Rick White- 9.8 VORP, 33/21 K:BB, 3.77 ERA, 59.7 IP
3. Rafael Betancourt- 7.7 VORP, 52/12 K:BB, 4.20 ERA, 49.3 IP
4. Kazuhito Tadano- 1.8 VORP, 36/16 K:BB, 4.95 ERA, 43.7 IP

Minnesota:
1. Joe Nathan- 31.0 VORP, 64/18 K:BB, 0.85 ERA, 52.7 IP
2. Juan Rincon- 20.5 VORP, 74/21 K:BB, 2.58 ERA, 59.3 IP
3. Joe Roa- 12.1 VORP, 34/14 K:BB, 3.64 ERA, 34.3 IP
4. Terry Mulholland- 4.7 VORP, 34/19 K:BB, 5.14 ERA, 70.0 IP

One can see who has the better bullpen.

And since K:BB was the deciding factor in our first comparison of Cleveland and Minnesota, we will look at those ratios in this comparison also.

The total K:BB and K:IP ratios for each team are as follows:

Cleveland: 179/79 K:BB, 179/213.4 K:IP

Minnesota: 206/72 K:BB, 206/236.3 K:IP

Minnesota definitely strikes out more and walks less-AGAIN.

What one must remember though, is that since a bullpen, in general, will pitch less than a starting staff, the difference in numbers between two bullpens will be smaller, but will actually mean just as much in showing differences as the large gaps produced by the more quantitative starting pitching numbers.

So, even though the differences between the two bullpens do not look so bad, they clearly show a distinct difference in the two.

Even though this does give validation to the fact that Minnesota's bullpen is superior, I will give more numbers to prove the fact.
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I am doing this because, to the naked eye, they above stats could actually look similar.(**READ: "What one must remember...." paragraph)
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To delve a little bit deeper, I decided to display how many Hits and Home Runs each bullpen has allowed.

Using the 4 pitchers named above, here are those numbers:

Cleveland:221 Hits, 28 HR allowed in 213.4 IP (1.0356 H/IP, 0.131 HR/IP)

Minnesota: 226 Hits, 22 HR allowed in 236.3 IP (0.9564 H/IP, 0.093 HR/IP)

Minnesota allows less that a hit an inning, while Cleveland allows more than one. And on top of that, Cleveland has allowed 6 more HR. And in the late innings folks, that just doesn't cut it.

But again, these numbers DO look kind of close, so remember that a bullpen pitches less total innings than a starting staff, therefore creating smaller (but just as relevant!!) gaps between two bullpen's numbers.

So, even though it has already been made clear why Minnesota is in first place in my previous article "Why isn't Cleveland in First?", this bullpen analysis just widens the gap between the two teams a little more.

But, like I stated at the beginning of the article, Cleveland beat Minnesota 8-2 tonight, decreasing the gap between the two to 2 games. And there are two games left in that series.

Cleveland might overcome those bad first half numbers, and Minnesota's lack of offense might just catch up to them. Who knows?
&%Good luck Cleveland&%

But for now, my advice to Cleveland fans involved in an argument, "Compare your offense to other teams, you'll usually win that one."

Frank E. Bundy III