Sheets or Schmidt??

It seems like all I hear about is how great Jason Schmidt is pitching for the San Francisco Giants; and how he is the leader in the Cy Young race. Well, while there is no doubt that he is pitching fantastic, there is another pitcher putting up similar, if not better, statistics. He plays for the Milwaukee Brewers and goes by the name of Ben Sheets.

Before we get started lets just look at the numbers of each pitcher:

Ben Sheets: 44.2 VORP, 171/21 K:BB, 16 HR, 130 Hits, 156.0 IP, and 2.56 ERA

Jason Schmidt: 49.3 VORP, 175/57 K/BB, 13 HR, 110 Hits, 157.2 IP, and 2.74 ERA

You can see right off the bat that these numbers are very similar, except the Sheets gives up a little more hits, while Schmidt walks more batters.

But for arguments sake, let consider these numbers equal, since they're pretty darn close.

So, to actually find out who is pitching better this season, we have to see who is facing better competition. And, as you knew I would, I've already figured out the hitting statistics of all the teams these pitchers faced.

The final numbers on these two pitchers competition look like this:

Sheets Competition: .265 AVG/.329 OBP/.426 SLG

Schmidt Competition: .266 AVG/.335 OBP/.429 SLB

***You can see the offensive statistics of each team Sheets and Schmidt faced at www.mlb.com. ***

It is not hard to see that both pitchers have faced very similar competition. Except, that Schmidt's competition has a slightly better OBP. But again, for arguments sake, we will consider the competition equal.

So after looking at those numbers, we have no definitive answer as to who is pitching better, but we can look even deeper. Read on...

Of Sheet's 23 starts, 14 have been at his home ballpark- Miller Park, while out of Schmidt's 22 starts, he also has 14 home starts at SBC Park.

These number are significant because according to Baseball Prospectus's 2004 park ratings, Miller Park is a nuetral park--fair to both hitters and pitchers,--while SBC Park is rated as a severe pitchers park-a favorable advantage to pitchers.

Not only is Sheets putting up equivlant numbers to Schmidt's against equal competition; he is doing it in a park where hitters are at equal advantage to him. While Schmidt is pitching in a park where the advantage is shifted in his favor.

So, now because of the home ballpark factor, which IS a big factor-and let nobody tell you different-we have Sheets being the better pitcher, but just slightly.

So now the question stands, Should Schmidt beat out Sheets in the Cy Young race because his team has a better record(subsequently giving him a better record).

Well, the answer to this question is no, IT SHOULDN'T help Schmidt out, but the fact is, that it does. For some reason, the statistic wins is looked upon as having a significant value.

This is not a new argument folks, it is one that has gone on for years. And the truth is, if both Sheets and Schmidt continued to pitch like they have for the rest of the year, with Sheets pitching better because of ballpark factor, Schmidt would win the Cy Young race.

Why???? Because he could have 20 wins by season's end, and Sheets would at most have 14 or 15.

Is this fair to Sheets, no. But IT IS the way it works out.

This article is only to show that, by the numbers, Sheets is pitching slightly better than Schmidt this year. I do not intend to downplay anything Schmidt has done this year. There is no doubt that Schmidt is pitching phenomenal, and is very deserving of the Cy Young thus far, just not as much as Sheets.

Frank E. Bundy III