Who are the AL Playoff teams?

Who are the four best teams in the American League in 2004? You know, the ones that should make the playoffs? This is a question that I will not leave unanswered.

So to begin, let's look at the eight teams in the AL vying for four playoff spots: Boston, New York, Texas, Anaheim, Oakland, Cleveland, Minnesota, and Chicago.

To figure out which four of these teams were the best, I performed a statistical analysis on each teams, then ranked them.

I took each offensive and pitching category that I believe have the MOST to do with winning and losing, and ranked each teams output in that statistical categories, against the others.

Those of you who play fantasy sports know this concept very well, it is how most leagues do their standings.

Since each team was ranked 1-8(because of eight teams), they were then given an amount of points equal to that ranking. Which was then added up against all their other "ranking points" in the other statistics, to come up with a final "Ranking Point."

Keep in mind, that since getting ranked first(resulting in one "ranking point") is better than getting ranked eighth(resulting in 8 "ranking points"), the team with the LOWEST amount of "ranking points" would therefore be the best.

Now before I show the hard numbers, let me tell which statistics I used in the analysis.

For offensive statistics, the following was used:

Average(AVG), On-Base Percentage(OBP), Slugging Percentage(SLG), K/BB ratio quotient(K/BB), Home Runs(HR), and Runs(R).

I believe these numbers have the most to do with scoring runs, which IS the ultimate goal in baseball.

***I tried to figure out a way to use Stolen Bases, and Caught Stealing numbers, but every time I tried, the numbers always gave an advantage, and therefore higher ranking to the team that attempting less stolen bases. So these were left out.****


Then, for the pitching statistics, the following were used:

Earned Run Average(ERA), K/BB ratio quotient(K/BB), K/IP ratio quotient(K/IP), Walks + Hits/Innings Pitched(WHIP), Home Runs Allowed(HR), Opponents On-Base Percentage(OBP), and Opponents Slugging Percentage(SLG).

I believe these number have the most to do with keeping men off base, and therefore, the most to do with preventing runs, which IS the ultimatle goal of pitching.

Enough with the explanation, lets see the numbers.

**Note: In the K/BB column you will see a decimal point number (ex. 2.66). This is that teams total number of strikeouts divided by the total number of base on balls that pitching staff has accumulated. So in the end the number you see is how many batters that team strikes out for every one walk they issue. So, obviously, the higher the number the better**

**Note #2: In the K/IP column you will see a decimal point number (ex. .747). This is that pitching staff's total number of strikeouts divided by the total number of innings pitched. So in the end the number you see is how many batters that team strikes out per inning. So, obviously, the higher the number the better**

Pitching Statistics

Team----------ERA----K/BB----K/IP-----WHIP-----HR----OBP------SLG==PTS
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Minnesota---4.04(1)--2.66(1)--.747(4)--1.32(2)--127(3)--.324(3)--.409(3)==17

Oakland-----4.05(2)--1.89(6.5)-.707(5)-1.37(4)--122(2)--.333(5)--.407(1.5)=26

Boston-------4.17(3)--2.49(2)--.776(2)--1.31(1)--111(1)--.321(1)---.407(1.5)=11.5

Anaheim-----4.39(4)--2.23(4)--.788(1)--1.38(5)--137(5)-.330(4)---.425(4)==27

Texas-------4.46(5)--1.70(8)---.647(8)--1.44(7)--133(4)-.343(7)---.429(5)==44

New York---4.50(6)--2.46(3)---.702(6)--1.34(3)--138(6)-.322(2)---.431(6)==32

Chicago-----4.67(7)---1.94(5)---.682(7)--1.39(6)--151(8)-.335(6)---.441(7)==46

Cleveland---4.88(8)---1.89(6.5)-.749(3)-1.48(8)--146(7)-.346(8)--.446(8)=48.5

In these pitching rankings, it is very easy to see that Boston has the best pitching, while Cleveland has the worst.

Now, we take a look at the offensive rankings:

**Note: In the K/BB column you will see a decimal point number (ex. 1.97). This is that teams total number of strikeouts divided by the total number of base on balls their hitter have accumulated. So in the end the number you see is how many times that team strikes out for every one base on balls they draw. So, obviously, the lower the number the better.**

Offensive Statistics

Team----------AVG-------OBP-------SLG--------K/BB-------HR-----R=======PTS

Minnesota--.261(8)----.327(8)----.421(8)-----1.97(6)-----134(7)-----547(8)====45

Oakland----.272(4)----.344(4)----.435(6)-----1.79(3)-----142(5)------599(6)====28

Boston------.281(2.5)--.360(1)----.469(1)-----1.81(4)-----161(4)-------671(1)===13.5

Anaheim----.283(1)----.340(5)---.424(7)------2.17(7)-----110(8)-----595(7)====35

Texas-------.267(6)----.331(7)----.464(2)-----2.23(8)----175(2.5)-----634(4)===29.5

New York---.266(7)---.353(3)----.460(3.5)----1.43(1)-----182(1)-----652(3)===18.5

Chicago-----.268(5)--- .335(6)----.460(3.5)----1.95(5)----175(2.5)--619(5)===27

Cleveland---.281(2.5)--.357(2)----.447(5)------1.61(2)----135(6)---669(2)===19.5

In these offensive rankings, it is very easy to see that Boston has the best hitting, while Minnesota has the worst.

Now, the teams final "ranking points" for both pitching and offense are added together to give us a final "ranking point." This finally will tell us who the top four teams in the AL are.

**Remember...The LOWER the total, the better**

Total Ranking Points

1. Boston----13.5 Offense+11.5 Pitching=25

2. New York---18.5 Offense+32 Pitching=50.5

3. Oakland---28 Offense+26 Pitching=54

4. Minnesota--45 Offense+17 Pitching=62(tie)

4. Anaheim--35 Offense+27 Pitching=62(tie)

6. Cleveland--19.5 Offense+48.5 Pitching=68

7. Chicago--27 Offense+46 Pitching=73

8. Texas--29.5 Offense+44 Pitching=73.5

It is very easy to see who the best team is.

I believe the most remarkable part of this analysis is the definitive proof that the best team in the AL, by far, is Boston. They have half the "ranking points" of the next best team's .....HALF!!!! That means, according to this analysis, they are twice as good.

Does this mean there really is a curse in Beantown? I mean, how can a team be so far, head and shoulders, above the rest of the competition, and only manage to be currently tied for the wild card with the worst team of the eight, Texas? The Curse lives.

Who knows, maybe these numbers will work out in the end of the season, and Boston will win the AL. But for now, they aren't even in the AL East race, they are being beat, badly, by a team that statistically, they are twice as good as.

Another thing to see in this analysis is that Anaheim is tied with Minnesota for fourth place. But because of the division layout in the AL, they have to compete against Oakland, leaving Minnesota a division title, and leaving them as the most unlucky team of the bunch.

In the end, the best four teams according to this analysis(minus Anaheim) are, as of right now, the ones that look like they are going to make the playoffs. And this analysis shows why.

Endnote:

If you looked at my profile, you already know that I am a very big Boston Redsox fan, and you may think that I performed this analysis to show that my team is the best. I want to assure you that this is not true. While I did know that Boston was the best team in the AL, I did not realize by how much they were the best. I did this analysis strictly to see if the four statistically best teams, were the one who had the best shot at making the playoffs.

Frank Bundy III