Did the O's get what they paid For???

We all know that last year, Javy Lopez of the Atlanta Braves had a career year. The numbers he put up in 2003 were .328/.378/.687, 90/33 (2.72) K/BB, 3.56 Pitches/PA, and 43 HR. No doubt these were amazing numbers, which earned him a huge contract from Peter Angelos and the Orioles which had him switch leagues, and play catcher in Baltimore.

Now since I am not a GM (but would love to be one), I cannot possibly fathom what Angelos, and the Orioles' GM's Mike Flanagan, and Jim Beattie were expecting out of Lopez this year. Although I can sleep well at night knowing that they definitely DID NOT expect a repeat of Lopez's 2003. I believe they would expect Lopez to "split the difference" of his 2003, and his career averages. So after doing the math, and comparing Lopez's career averages, including 2003, to his 2003 campaign with Atlanta, I came up with what I believe the Baltimore organization would expect from Lopez in 2004.

First here are Javy Lopez's career averages after 2003 (before 2004 season began):

.287 AVG/.337 OBP/.502 SLG,
728/271 (2.69) K/BB,
3.39 Pitches/PA
18 HR

Now, taking his career totals in all the necessary statistical categories, figuring out the difference between those numbers and his 2003 season, then dividing the difference by two; I came up with a season that "split the difference" between his 2003, and his career average year. This would be Lopez's "expected year" in 2004:

.311 AVG/ .360 OBP/ .596 SLG
76/28 (2.71) K/BB
3.49 Pitches/PA
31 HR

Here is the year that Lopez put up in 2004 (prorated for the last week of the season):

.314 AVG/ .369 OBP/ .490 SLG
98/49 (2.00) K/BB
3.45 Pitches/PA
21 HR

We can see that Lopez definitely met his expected levels of AVG, and Pitches/PA, but he came up short on HR and SLG, but significantly improved his K/BB, and improved his OBP.

So now back to the question at hand, "Did the O's get what they paid for?" I believe the answer is no. While it is nice to have a better K/BB, and OBP than expected, I do not believe that this made up for the drop in Lopez's expected HR and SLG.


----This answer CAN change over the course of the next few years, obviously--

I'm sure that Baltimore would trade Lopez's 2.00 K/BB (which is the reason for his higher OBP), for a 2.71 K/BB if he were to get .106 more points of SLG (.596-.490), and 10 more HR (31-21) out of Lopez.

Basically what I am saying is that Lopez was expected to put up a .956 OPS, but put up a .859 OPS, which is much closer to his career average of .839 OPS. While this is a great OPS, Lopez always kept that high OPS by having that .502 career SLG in his back pocket-- not by having a .369 OBP (2004).

The way in which Lopez put up that .859 OPS, is not what I believe Baltimore wanted. Although, the OPS is there, and I guess that is all that matters.

Lopez is putting up this OPS more like a number 2 hitter would, rather than the way a number 3-4-or 5 hitter would.

This is not to say that Javy Lopez is not having a great year, just a year that is less than what was expected.

Next year could be a great year for Lopez though, because this is the first year that he has displayed great plate discipline, as seen by his K/BB ratio, and that kind of discipline usually leads to great years.

Like I said earlier, I'm sure Peter Angelos and the rest of Baltimore would have taken a free-swinging Javy Lopez who put up a number closer to his career .502 SLG, than this ever-patient Javy Lopez who hit 12 points below his career SLG and 109 points lower than his expected SLG.

Remember, the value of Lopez as an Oriole cannot be fully measured until the end of his contract there.

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comment, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me @ frnkbndy@yahoo.com.