World Series Prediction (Part 2)

Welcome back. I've just completed my comparablitly analysis of the American League 2004 playoff contenders (Boston Redsox, New York Yankees, Oakland A's, Anaheim Angels, and the Minnesota Twins); to see how they stack up against the average World Series Champions of the last 3 years (2001 Arizona Diamondbacks, 2002 Anaheim Angels, and the 2003 Florida Marlins).

Let's get right into it. There were 43 categories of comparability. These categories were as follows:

Team Pitching Stats-- ERA, BAA, K/9, K/BB, WHIP, OBP, SLG, K, BB, and HR (10 categories)

Team Offensive Stats-- AVG, OBP, SLG, Hits, HR, K, BB, XBH, ISOP, SECA, BB/K, Runs (12 categories)

Other comparabiltiy categories-- Career Year Players (players putting up career years: a player is defined as putting up a career year when his VORP is+13 over his career average - 1 category)

Career Year Pitchers (1 category)
Career Year Offensive Players (1 category)

Breakout Year Players-- (players putting up career years but with less than 3 QY as experience: a player is defined a putting up a career year when his VORP is+13 over his career average - 1 category))

Breakout Year Pitchers (1 category)
Breakout Year Offensive Players (1 category)

# of Players with +70, +60, +50, +40, +35 VORP (5 categories)
# of Pithcers with +70, +60, +50, +40, +35 VORP (5 categories)
# of Offensive Players with +70, +60, +50, +40, +35 VORP (5 categories)

43 Total Comparability Categories

Each teams numbers in each category were given either -1 point, 0 points, or +1 points based on how similar they were to the Average World Series Championship (AWSC) team in each category.

For example: AWSC-------------2004 Oakland A's
Batting Average: .272--------------------------.274

The A's were given 0 points in this Batting Average category because they were within 10 points on either side of the AWSC average. If the A's were more than 10 points less than the AWSC average, they would have been given -1 points, then subsequently, if they were more than ten points above the AWSC average, they would have been given +1 points.

I used this +10/-10 way of scoring for all the team statistics. If a team was within 10 points of the AWSC statistic (whether it be K, BB, HR, Avg, etc...) they were graded as similar to the AWSC and given 0 points. If they were 10 points or more below, they were awarded -1 points, and if they were 10 points or more above they were awarded +1 point.

For the career year, breakout year, and levels of VORP comparabiliy categories, I would round to the nearest whole number for the decimal points that were given as averages in the AWSC analysis.

For Example : The AWSC had an average of 1.33 Offensive Players post a +50 VORP. This was rounded to 1. So in the comparison, the AWCS had 1 player post a +50 VORP.

Obviously, for these career year, breakout year, and VORP level comparisons, the -10/+10 scoring system was not used. A current team had to post the exact equal number in these categories to be awarded 0 points. If the team had more than the AWCS in these categories, they were awared +1 point, and if they had less than the AWSC in these categories, they were awarded -1 point.

Here is the comparison:

Category (AWSC)-Team/Stat(Number)/Points/

Career Year Players (8)--Bos/4/-1/---NY/3/-1/---Oak/11/+1/---Min/6/-1/---Ana/4/-1/
Career Year Pitchers (5)-Bos/1/-1/---NY/2/-1/---Oak/3/-1/---Min/5/0/---Ana/2/-1/
Career Year Hitters (3)--Bos/3/0/---NY/1/-1/---Oak/8/+1/---Min/1/-1/---Ana/2/-1/

Breakout Year Players (6)--Bos/2/-1/---NY/1/-1/---Oak/7/+1/---Min/4/-1/---Ana/3/-1/
Breakout Year Pitchers (4)--Bos/1/-1/---NY/0/-1/---Oak/2/-1/---Min/3/-1/---Ana/1/-1/
Breakout Year Hitters (2)---Bos/1/-1/---NY/1/-1/---Oak/5/+1/---Min/1/-1/---Ana/2/0/

# of Players +70 VORP (1)--Bos/2/+1---NY/1/0/---Oak/0/-1/---Min/1/0/---Ana/1/0/
# of Players +60 VORP (1)--Bos/4/+1/---NY/2/+1/---Oak/2/+1/---Min/1/0/---Ana/2/0/
# of Players +50 VORP (2)--Bos/6/+1/---NY/4/+1/---Oak/4/+1/---Min/3/+1/---Ana/1/-1/
# of Players +40 VORP (5)--Bos/8/+1---NY/6/+1/---Oak/8/+1/---Min/3/-1/---Ana/3/-1/
# of Players +35 VORP (7)--Bos/8/+1/---NY/8/+1/---Oak/8/+1/---Min/5/-1/---Ana/5/-1/

# of Pitchers +70 VORP (1)--Bos/0/-1/---NY/0/-1/---Oak/0/-1/---Min/1/0/---Ana/0/-1/
# of Pitchers +60 VORP (1)--Bos/2/+1/---NY/0/-1/---Oak/1/0/---Min/1/0/---Ana/0/-1/
# of Pitchers +50 VORP (1)--Bos/2/+1/---NY/0/-1/---Oak/2/+1/---Min/2/+1/---Ana/0/-1/ # of Pitchers +40 VORP (2)--Bos/3/+1/---NY/1/-1/---Oak/3/+1/---Min/2/0/---Ana/1/-1/
# of Pitchers +35 VORP (3)--Bos/3/0/---NY/3/0/---Oak/3/0/---Min/3/0/---Ana/2/-1/

# of Hitters +70 VORP (0)--Bos/2/+1/---NY/1/+1/---Oak/0/0/---Min/0/0/---Ana/1/+1/
# of Hitters +60 VORP (0)--Bos/2/+1/---NY/2/+1/---Oak/1/+1/---Min/0/0/---Ana/1/+1/
# of Hitters +50 VORP (1)--Bos/4/+1/---NY/4/+1/---Oak/2/+1/---Min/1/0/---Ana/1/0/
# of Hitters +40 VORP (3)--Bos/5/+1/---NY/5/+1/---Oak/5/+1/---Min/1/-1/---Ana/2/-1/
# of Hitters +35 VORP (4)--Bos/5/+1/---NY/5/+1/---Oak/5/+1/---Min/2/-1/---Ana/3/-1/

Offensive Team Stats
AVG (.272)---Bos/.285/+1/---NY/.266/0/---Oak/.274/0/---Min/.263/0/---Ana/.288/+1/
OBP (.338)---Bos/.362/+1/---NY/.352/+1/---Oak/.348/0/---Min/.329/0/---Ana/.345/0/
SLG (.432)---Bos/.476/+1/---NY/.457/+1/---Oak/.442/0/---Min/.429/0/---Ana/.434/0/
HITS (1519)--Bos/1628/+1/--NY/1480/-1/--Oak/1595/+1/--Min/1502/-1/--Ana/1673/+1/
HR (172)---Bos/222/+1/---NY/250/+1/---Oak/203/+1/---Min/192/+1/---Ana/162/0/
K (945)----Bos/1178/-1/---NY/996/-1/---Oak/1063/-1/---Min/997/-1/---Ana/943/0/
BB (521)---Bos/665/+1/---NY/685/+1/---Oak/617/+1/---Min/514/0/---Ana/444/-1/
XBH (512)--Bos/622/+1/---NY/552/+1/---Oak/550/+1/---Min/534/+1/---Ana/487/-1/
ISOP (.160)--Bos/.191/+1/---NY/.192/+1/---Oak/.167/0/---Min/.166/0/---Ana/.146/-1/
SECA (.264)--Bos/.312/+1/---NY/.324+1/---Oak/.277/+1/---Min/.269/0/---Ana/.239/-1/
BB/K (0.55)---Bos/0.56/0/---NY/0.69/+1/---Oak/0.58/0/---Min/0.52/0/---Ana/0.47/0/
RUNS (807)---Bos/935/+1/---NY/889/+1/---Oak/839/+1/---Min/774/-1/---Ana/860/+1/

Pitching Teams Stats
ERA (3.87)--Bos/4.09/-1/---NY/4.67/-1/---Oak/4.00/-1/---Min/4.04/-1/---Ana/4.39/-1/
BAA (.251)--Bos/.257/0/---NY/.272/-1/---Oak/.259/0/---Min/.268/-1/---Ana/.265/-1/
K/9 (7.07)--Bos/7.09/0/---NY/6.42/-1/---Oak/6.28/-1/---Min/6.85/-1/---Ana/7.21/+1/
K/BB (2.29)--Bos/2.60/+1/---NY/2.38/0/---Oak/1.92/-1/---Min/2.68/+1/---Ana/2.29/0/
WHIP (1.29)--Bos/1.29/0/---NY/1.36/0/---Oak/1.34/0/---Min/1.32/0/---Ana/1.38/0/
OBP (.315)---Bos/.317/0/---NY/.326/-1/---Oak/.326/-1/---Min/.320/0/---Ana/.327/-1/
SLG (.397)---Bos/.407/0/---NY/.436/-1/---Oak/.402/0/---Min/.408/-1/---Ana/.428/-1/
K (1143)---Bos/1144/0/---NY/1040/-1/---Oak/1037/-1/---Min/1145/0/---Ana/1183/+1/
BB (500)--Bos/440/+1/---NY/437/+1/---Oak/540/-1/---Min/427/+1/---Ana/517/-1/
HR (192)--Bos/151/+1/---NY/190/0/---Oak/162/+1/---Min/172/+1/---Ana/191/0/

Career Year Players by Team (2004 prorated VORP 13 or more runs above career average VORP)
---------Breakout Year indicated in bold (Career Year with less than 3 QY----------

Team- Player/2004 prorated VORP-Career Average VORP

Boston- Damon/55.4-31.25, Ortiz/70.2-31.87, Varitek/53.4-25.55, *****Schilling/NO*****, Arroyo/15.2-(-7.75)

****Schilling is having a career year because his prorated VORP this season is 13 runs higher than his career average, but only because his first two years in the league, where his VORP was considerably less. If his first 2 years are taken out, he is still having a great year, just not a "career year"-and therefore was not awarded "career year" status. This case also applies to Gary Sheffield of the New York Yankees.****

New York- Matsui/56.3-30.9, Rivera/45.0-30.1, Gordon/36.8-22.08

Oakland- Duchsherer/31.7-NQY, Mulder/60.0-45.125, Harden/47.5-12.6, Hatteberg/49.4-22.7, Kotsay/43.9-21.68, Byrnes/41.0-25.1, Crosby/30.0-NQY, Durazo/62.0-36.1, Chavez/56.6-43.44, Scutaro/14.4-NQY, Miller/26.8-12.95

Minnesota- Ford/50.5-NQY, Nathan/36.8-14.23, Romero/30.4-7.5, Santana/81.2-27.67, Radke/58.4-40.24, Silva/31.9-13.85

Anaheim- Guillen/48.4-33, Figgins/29.2-NQY, Gregg/22.1-NQY, Escobar/47.6-19.86

Players over 35 VORP by Team (VORP is prorated)

Boston- Damon-55.44, Ortiz-70.2, Ramirez-73.68, Bellhorn-42.6, Varitek-53.4, Foulke-40.7, Schilling-68.8, Martinez-61.9

New York- Jeter-46.3, Rodriguez-64.0, Matsui-56.3, Sheffield-73.2, Posada-53.2, Rivera-45.0, Gordon-36.8, O. Hernandez-35.0

Oakland- Hudson-58.0, Mulder-60.0, Harden-47.5, Hatteberg-49.4, Kotsay-43.9, Byrnes-41.0, Durazo-62.0, Chavez-56.6

Minnesota- Ford-50.5, Stewart-35.7, Nathan-36.8, Radke-58.4, Santana-81.2

Anaheim- Guerrero-79.8, Guillen-48.4, Erstad-38.5, F. Rodriguez-38.9, Escobar-47.6

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total Similarity Points By Team
------------Point totals closest to zero indicates more similarity to AWSC. Negative point totals indicate that team is worse than AWSC. Positive point totals indicate team is better than AWSC.------------------

Boston- 18
New York- 1
Oakland- 10
Minnesota- (-9)
Anaheim- (-17)

According to this system, the team most similar to the AWSC is the New York Yankees. And because of this, the Yankees are my prediction to represent the American League in the World Series.

This prediction brought up a dilemma that I had not thought about before I had embarked on this project. The Boston Redsox and Oakland A's were the teams that really brought this dilemma to the forefront.

As you can see, Boston and Oakland are BETTER than the AWSC. So why don't I predict Boston, when they are clearly the best team? The answer to that question lied within the analysis itself.

If you look at the past 3 World Series Champions, you will see that all three of them (2001 Diamondbacks, 2002 Angels, and 2003 Marlins) were not the best team going into the playoffs, but they ended up the best team coming out.

So even though there are better teams than the Yankees (Redsox and A's), the Yankees are most similar to those "not-the-best-team-going-into-the-playoffs-but-won-the-World-Series-anyway" teams of the past three years.

So the decision is final, the New York Yankees are my prediction to represent the American League in the World Series.

As a final note. Please realize that this analysis is not perfect by any means (no analysis by anybody of anything ever is).

There are factors in every analysis that are not accounted for-but do effect the outcome. For this paticular analysis, I did not consider ballpark factors, or the fact that 2 of the last 3 World Series Champions came out of the National League, and I am sure there are many more. But the factors that I did use were plentiful, and meaningful, and I believe did help me make my best possible prediction.

So while debate will arise from this analyis, I am 100% sure that my prediction is backed in many ways by a number of solid factors.

And just think, this is only part 1. Part 2 (National League Analysis and Prediction) is upcoming.

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.