World Series Prediction (Part 1)

It's about that time when people start choosing their World Series favorites, and start making predictions. Analyists and fans will be doing this throughout the world, and I am no different.

I am going to make my World Series Champion prediction in this article. I will also predict the two teams that will be playing in the World Series.

The way I am going to make my predictions are by comparing each team in the playoff hunt today, to the World Series Champions of the past three years (2001 Arizona Diamondbacks, 2002 Anaheim Angels, and the 2003 Florida Marlins).

Alot of research, and mathematics went into analyzing the past three champions. And through this analysis I figured out elements were present, on average, on each of those teams.

The first and second part of my analysis used VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) as their main comparitive statistic.

For the first part of my analysis I looked at each player, on each teams VORP, in the year in which their team won the World Series.

In order to qualify for the analysis a player had to post a positive VORP.

Then as a hitter, he would have to have +350 AB.

As a pitcher, he would have to had started at least 10 games, or appeared in 29 games.

These qualifications were strictly for qualifying for the analysis during the World Series year, but when I looked at these player's previous years, it did not matter whether they had posted a positive or negative VORP; but they still had to fulfill the AB, games started, or appearance qualifications.

When a player fulfilled those requirement, I called that year a "Qualifying Year" (QY), and when they didn't it was called a "Non-Qualifying Year (NQY).

Each players VORP is compared to their career average VORP in that players QY's.

Example: In 2003, Derrek Lee of the Florida Marlins posted a 51.7 VORP.

In his previous QY looked like this (year:VORP)-- 2002:49.4/2001: 33.4/ 2000:31.5/ 1999: (NQY)/1998: 5.9..... making his career average, before the World Series Championship year of 2003, 30.05.

So, the difference between Derrek Lee's World Serie's Year VORP (51.7), and his career average VORP (30.05), was 21.65. For my analysis, I considered 13 runs over a player's career average VORP, to be a "career year."

So, for this analyis, Derrek Lee had what I called a "career year." (Please note that the career years in this article are based on averages, so what I call a "career year" may not actually be a player's career year. For example, Randy Johnson of the 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks qualify's for a career year in this analysis with a 88.3 VORP--because it is 13 runs higher than his career average. But this is clearly not his career year, that was 1999....100.6 VORP)

Doing this "career year" analyis with each player, on each team, helped me figure out how many players had career years on the past three championship teams, on average.

But I encountered a problem--players with less than 3 QY. Can I really consider them having a career year, with not that much of a career to measure up against?

So for players with 3 or less QY, I just used the averages of previous years, albeit 1, 2, 3 or no years experience, and compared them just as I did for players with more than 3 QY. When a player had 13 or more runs than his previous career average VORP, I called this a "breakout year"--essentially the same as a "career year"--but with less statistics for comparison. So a rookie posting a 13 or higher VORP, qualified as having a "breakout year."

For the final count, a "breakout year" also qualifies as a "career year." But a "career year" wouldn't qualify as a "breakout year."

Here is each teams list of players with "career years," and "breakout years."

2003 Florida Marlins Career Years (difference between 2003 VORP and Career Average greater than, or equal to, 13 runs)
Juan Pierre - 38.5 VORP minus 23.33 Career Average
Derrek Lee - 51. VORP minus 30.05
Alex Gonzalez - 27.7 VORP minus 8.4
Mike Lowell - 52.0 VORP minus 38.17
Miguel Cabrera - 13.9 VORP minus NQY
Carl Pavano - 28.1 VORP minus 11.38
Dontrelle Willis - 40.6 VORP minus NQY
Mark Redman - 38.6 VORP minus 20.88
Josh Beckett - 35.8 VORP minus 9.8

------9 total career years, 5 offensive players, 4 pitchers.-------

2002 Anaheim Angels Career Years
Garrett Anderson - 50.1 VORP minus 25.96 Career Average
Adam Kennedy - 40.2 VORP minus 11.3
Brad Fullmer - 40.9 VORP minus 25.7
Scott Spiezio - 28.8 VORP minus 12.7
Ramon Ortiz - 47.5 VORP minus 19.9
Jarred Washburn - 61.9 VORP minus 21.65
John Lackey - 20.0 VORP minus NQY
Ben Weber - 26.8 VORP minus NQY
Brendan Donnelly - 20.0 minus NQY
Scot Shields - 19.5 minus NQY

-----10 total career years, 4 offensive players, 6 pitchers------

2001 Arizona Diamondbacks Career Years
Luis Gonzalez - 104.5 VORP minus 29.53 Career Average
Curt Schilling - 80.9 minus 42.85
Randy Johnson - 88.3 minus 51.0
Miguel Batista - 33.4 minus 11.65
Byung-Yun Kim - 31.3 minus 7.4
Brett Prinz - 13.5 minus NQY

-----6 total career years, 1 offensive players, 5 pitchers------

On average, the World Series championship team in the past three years had 8.33 players put up career years, 3.33 of those players being an offensive player, and 5 of those players being pitchers.

Now the list of "breakout years."

2003 Florida Marlins "Breakout Years" (difference between 2003 VORP and Career Average greater than, or equal to, 13 runs, but with less than 3 QY)
Juan Pierre - 38.5 VORP minus 23.33 Career Average
Alex Gonzalez - 27.7 VORP minus 8.4
Mike Lowell - 52.0 VORP minus 38.17
Miguel Cabrera - 13.9 VORP minus NQY
Dontrelle Willis - 40.6 VORP minus NQY
Mark Redman - 38.6 VORP minus 20.88
Josh Beckett - 35.8 VORP minus 9.8

------7 total breakout years, 4 offensive players, 3 pitchers.-------

2002 Anaheim Angels Breakout Years
Adam Kennedy - 40.2 VORP minus 11.3career average
Brad Fullmer - 40.9 VORP minus 25.7
Scott Spiezio - 28.8 VORP minus 12.7
Ramon Ortiz - 47.5 VORP minus 19.9
Jarred Washburn - 61.9 VORP minus 21.65
John Lackey - 20.0 VORP minus NQY
Ben Weber - 26.8 VORP minus NQY
Brendan Donnelly - 20.0 minus NQY
Scot Shields - 19.5 minus NQY

-----9 total breakout years, 3 offensive players, 6 pitchers------

2001 Arizona Diamondbacks Breakout Years
Miguel Batista - 33.4 minus 11.65 career average
Byung-Yun Kim - 31.3 minus 7.4
Brett Prinz - 13.5 minus NQY

-----3 total breakout years, 0 offensive players, 3 pitchers------

On average, the World Series championship team in the past three years had 6.33 players have breakout years, 2.33 of those players being an offensive player, and4 of those players being pitchers.

Looking at the "breakout", and "career years" on these teams, and figuring out the averages per team, completed the first step in the analysis.

The next step was seeing how many players on each team posted a +70, +60, +50, +40 and +35 VORP; to see how many of these players, on average,were on the typical World Series championship team the past three years.

***Note...Later in this article, when I will be using current statistics for current teams, like VORP, K, BB, HR, Hits, I will prorate these to make the comparisons more equal.***

Players over 35 VORP

Team Name (Number of Players over specified VORP)
2001 Diamondbacks (3)
Luis Gonzalez - 104.5
Curt Schilling - 80.9
Randy Johnson - 88.3

2002 Anaheim Angels (9)
Jarred Washburn - 61.9
Garrett Anderson - 50.1
Troy Glaus - 42.2
Tim Salmon - 41.4
Adam Kennedy - 40.2
Ramon Ortiz -47.5
Brad Fullmer - 40.9
David Eckstein - 37.8
Kevin Appier - 36.2

2003 Florida Marlins (8)
Derrek Lee - 51.7
Mike Lowell - 52.0
Ivan Rodriguez - 49.1
Dontrelle Willis - 40.6
Juan Pierre - 38.5
Luis Castillo - 39.0
Mark Redman - 38.6
Josh Beckett - 35.8

Players over 40 VORP
2001 Diamondbacks (3)
Luis Gonzalez - 104.5
Curt Schilling - 80.9
Randy Johnson - 88.3

2002 Anaheim Angels (7)
Jarred Washburn - 61.9
Garrett Anderson - 50.1
Troy Glaus - 42.2
Tim Salmon - 41.4
Adam Kennedy - 40.2
Ramon Ortiz -47.5
Brad Fullmer - 40.9

2003 Florida Marlins (4)
Derrek Lee - 51.7
Mike Lowell - 52.0
Ivan Rodriguez - 49.1
Dontrelle Willis - 40.6

Players Over 50 VORP
2001 Diamondbacks (3)
Luis Gonzalez - 104.5
Curt Schilling - 80.9
Randy Johnson - 88.3

2002 Anaheim Angels (2)
Jarred Washburn - 61.9
Garrett Anderson - 50.1

2003 Florida Marlins (2)
Derrek Lee - 51.7
Mike Lowell - 52.0

Players Over 60 VORP
2001 Diamondbacks (3)
Luis Gonzalez - 104.5
Curt Schilling - 80.9
Randy Johnson - 88.3

2002 Anaheim Angels (1)
Jarred Washburn - 61.9

2003 Florida Marlins (0)

Players Over 70 VORP
2001 Diamondbacks (3)
Luis Gonzalez - 104.5
Curt Schilling - 80.9
Randy Johnson - 88.3

2002 Anaheim Angels (0)

2003 Florida Marlins (0)

Based on those lists, I broke down how many of these players were on the average World Series Championship team in the past three years. This list breaks down as follows:

(Example, " +70 VORP : 1", means an average of 1 player, per team, on those 3 teams had a VORP over 70, so "+35 : 6.67" would mean an average of 6.67 players on those three teams, per team, posted a VORP over 35.)

Players per team by VORP

VORP : #of Players per team
+70 : 1
+60 : 1.33
+50 : 2.33
+40 : 4.67
+35 : 6.67

Broken down by pitchers and offensive players:

Pitcher per team by VORP
+70 : 0.67
+60 : 1
+50 : 1
+40 : 1.67
+35 : 2.67

Offensive players per team by VORP
+70 : 0.33
+60 : 0.33
+50 : 1.33
+40 : 3.00
+35 : 4.00

So now after these first two steps, I have determind that the average World Series Championship team, in the past three years, looked like so:

8.33 players posted a "career year"
3.33 Offensive players posted a "career year"
5 Pitchers posted a "career year"

6.33 players posted a "breakout year"
2.33 offensive players posted a "break out year"
4 Pitchers posted a "career year"

1 player posted a +70 VORP
1.33 players posted a +60 VORP
2.33 players posted a +50 VORP
4.67 players posted a +40 VORP
6.67 players posted a +35 VORP

0.67 pitchers posted a +70 VORP
1 pitcher posted a +60 VORP
1 pitcher posted a +50 VORP
1.67 pitchers posted a +40 VORP
2.67 pitchers posted a +35 VORP

0.33 offensive player posted a +70 VORP
0.33 offensive players posted a +60 VORP
1.33 offensive players posted a +50 VORP
3 offensive players posted a +40 VORP
4 offensive players posted a +35 VORP

Now, the last step of the analysis, "Team Stats." I looked at each of the three teams statistics, and averaged them out to see what the typical World Series Championship team in the past three years looked like.

The statistics I used were:

For offense - AVG, OBP, SLG, Hits, HR, K, BB, Extra Base Hits(XBH), Isolated Power (ISOP), Secondary Average (SECA), BB/K, and Runs.

For pitching - ERA, Batting Average Against (BAA), K/9, K/BB, Walks plus Hits per inning Pithced(WHIP), OBP, SLG, K, BB, and HR.

Average World Series Championship Team

Offensive Team Statistics

Batting Average - .272
OBP - .338
SLG - .432
Hits - 1519
HR - 172
K - 945
BB - 521
XBH - 512
ISOP - .160
SECA - .264
BB/K - .55
Runs - 807

Pitching Statistics

ERA - 3.87
BAA - .251
K/9 - 7.08
K/BB - 2.25
WHIP - 1.29
OBP - .315
SLG - .397
K - 1143
BB - 500
HR - 492

So that is what a World Series team looked like in the past three years.

In the next part of my analysis I will be looking at the current teams in the hunt for the playoffs in the American League. The teams I will be using are the New York Yankees, Boston Redsox, Minnesota Twins, Oakland A's, and Anaheim Angels.

(I'm sorry Rangers, Whitesox, and Indian Fans--I do not believe your teams have a legitimate shot to make the playoffs, but if they make a run to contention, I WILL DO ANOTHER SEGMENT OF THIS ARTICLE TO ACCOMODATE THEM.)

I will do a direct comparison of these playoff-chasing teams, to the average World Series teams of the past three years. That is what I will base my prediction on for the American League representative in the World Series.

Until Part 2,

Frank Bundy III

If you have questions, comments, concersn, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.