World Series Prediction (Part 3)

Welcome Back!! Thank you to those who waited patiently while I conducted research on the National League Playoff contenders.

As of the moment I am writing this article, the legitimate playoff contenders in the NL are Atlanta, Los Angeles, St. Louis, San Francisco, Chicago, and Houston. Of these six contenders, I have decided to analyze the first five in an effort to keep the analysis focused on the teams with the best chance; and right now with Houston being 1 1/2 games behind San Francisco and Chicago for the Wildcard, I have decided to leave them out--FOR NOW. If Houston gets within a half game, I will conduct the necessary research and include them in the analysis.

So let's quickly catch up. I am comparing each playoff contender in each league to the Average World Series Champion (AWSC) of the past three years (2001 Arizona Diamondbacks, 2002 Anaheim Angels, and the 2003 Florida Marlins).

The complete details of the analysis are in part one of the article, while the American League portion of this analysis is in part two. Please read these articles, if you haven't already--or this article and analysis will make not make any sense!!.

As seen in part two, I have predicted the New York Yankees to represent the American League in the World Series in 2004 because of how much more they are similar to the AWSC than any of the other AL playoff contenders.

Now to the National League.

Here are the numbers presented as they were for the AL teams:

Category (AWSC)-Team/Stat(Number)/Points/

Career Year Players (8)--StL/6/-1/---LA/9/+1/---Atl/5/-1/---Chc/6/-1/---SF/5/-1/
Career Year Pitchers (5)-StL/2/-1/---LA/5/0/---Atl/3/-1/---Chc/2/-1/---SF/1/-1/
Career Year Hitters (3)--StL/4/+1/---LA/4/+1/---Atl/2/-1/---Chc/4/+1/---SF/4/+1/

Breakout Year Players (6)--StL/2/-1/--LA/4/-1/--Atl/2/-1/--Chc/4/-1/---SF/1/-1/
Breakout Year Pitchers (4)--StL/1/-1/--LA/1/-1/--Atl/1/-1/--Chc/1/-1/--SF/0/-1/
Breakout Year Hitters (2)--StL/1/-1/---LA/3/+1/---Atl/1/-1/---Chc/3/+1/---SF/1/-1/

Players +70 VORP (1)--StL/3/+1/---LA/1/0/---Atl/1/0/---Chc/0/-1/---SF/1/0/
Players +60 VORP (1)--StL/3/+1/---LA/1/0/---Atl/1/0/---Chc/1/0/---SF/2/+1/
Players +50 VORP (2)--StL/3/+1/---LA/2/0/---Atl/1/-1/---Chc/4/+1/---SF/3/+1/
Players +40 VORP (5)--StL/5/0/---LA/5/0/---Atl/4/-1/---Chc/7/+1/---SF/3/-1/
Players +35 VORP (7)--StL/5/-1/---LA/6/-1/---Atl/7/0/---Chc/9/+1/---SF/3/-1/

Pitchers +70 VORP (1)--StL/0/-1/---LA/0/-1/---Atl/0/-1/---Chc/0/-1/---SF/0/-1/
Pitchers +60 VORP (1)--StL/0/-1/---LA/0/-1/---Atl/0/-1/---Chc/1/0/---SF/1/0/
Pitchers +50 VORP (1)--StL/0/-1/---LA/1/0/---Atl/0/-1/---Chc/1/0/---SF/1/0/
Pitchers +40 VORP (2)--StL/2/0/---LA/3/+1/---Atl/0/-1/---Chc/3/+1/---SF/1/-1/
Pitchers +35 VORP (3)--StL/2/-1/---LA/3/0/---Atl/2/-1/---Chc/3/0/---SF/1/-1/

Hitters +70 VORP (0)--StL/3/+1/---LA/1/+1/---Atl/1/+1/---Chc/0/0/---SF/1/+1/
Hitters +60 VORP (0)--StL/3/+1/---LA/1/+1/---Atl/1/+1/---Chc/0/0/---SF/1/+1/
Hitters +50 VORP (1)--StL/3/+1/---LA/1/0/---Atl/1/0/---Chc/3/+1/---SF/2/+1/
Hitters +40 VORP (3)--StL/3/0/---LA/2/-1/---Atl/4/+1/---Chc/4/+1/---SF/2/-1/
Hitters +35 VORP (4)--StL/3/-1/---LA/3/-1/---Atl/5/+1/---Chc/6/+1/---SF/2/-1/

Offensive Team Stats

AVG (.272)---StL/.277/0/---LA/.266/0/---Atl/.273/0/---Chc/.271/0/---SF/.269/0/
OBP (.338)---StL/.344/0/---LA/.335/0/---Atl/.345/0/---Chc/.328/0/---SF/.357/+1/
SLG (.432)---StL/.464/+1/---LA/.428/0/---Atl/.438/0/---Chc/.464/+1/---SF/.438/0/
HITS (1519)--StL/1543/+1/--LA/1480/-1/--Atl/1561/+1/--Chc/1534/+1/--SF/1561/+1/
HR (172)---StL/187/+1/---LA/204/+1/---Atl/184/+1/---Chc/240/+1/---SF/194/+1/
K (945)----StL/1065/-1/---LA/1072/-1/---Atl/1192/-1/---Chc/1083/-1/---SF/895/+1/
BB (521)---StL/550/+1/---LA/522/0/---Atl/597/+1/---Chc/465/-1/---SF/745/+1/
XBH (512)--StL/573/+1/---LA/459/-1/---Atl/543/+1/---Chc/582/+1/---SF/557/+1/
ISOP (.160)--StL/.186/+1/---LA/.162/0/---Atl/.165/0/---Chc/.193/+1/---SF/.169/0/
SECA (.264)--StL/.297/+1/---LA/.268/0/---Atl/.277/+1/---Chc/.282/+1/---SF/.301/+1/
BB/K (0.55)---StL/0.52/0/---LA/0.49/0/---Atl/0.50/0/---Chc/0.43/-1/---SF/0.83/+1/
RUNS (807)---StL/870/+1/---LA/770/-1/---Atl/825/+1/---Chc/812/+1/---SF/812/+1/

Pitching Teams Stats

ERA (3.87)--StL/3.74/+1/---LA/3.85/0/---Atl/3.73/+1/---Chc/3.81/0/---SF/4.38/-1/
BAA (.251)--StL/.251/0/---LA/.249/0/---Atl/.265/-1/---Chc/.250/0/---SF/.268/-1/
K/9 (7.07)--StL/6.34/-1/---LA/6.62/-1/---Atl/6.35/-1/---Chc/8.10/+1/---SF/6.29/-1/
K/BB (2.29)--StL/2.36/0/---LA/2.19/-1/---Atl/1.93/-1/---Chc/2.37/0/---SF/1.86/-1/
WHIP (1.29)--StL/1.24/0/---LA/1.27/0/---Atl/1.38/0/---Chc/1.32/0/---SF/1.41/-1/
OBP (.315)---StL/.308/0/---LA/.312/0/---Atl/.325/0/---Chc/.320/0/---SF/.331/-1/
SLG (.397)---StL/.403/0/---LA/.399/0/---Atl/.398/0/---Chc/.398/0/---SF/.426/-1/
K (1143)---StL/1029/-1/---LA/1072/-1/---Atl/1048/-1/---Chc/1326/+1/---SF/1062/-1/
BB (500)--StL/435/+1/---LA/495/0/---Atl/543/-1/---Chc/559/-1/---SF/559/-1/
HR (192)--StL/177/+1/---LA/171/+1/---Atl/158/+1/---Chc/168/+1/---SF/163/+1/

Career Year Players by Team (2004 prorated VORP 13 or more runs above career average VORP)
--------Breakout Year indicated in bold (Career Year with less than 3 QY)----------

Team- Player/2004 prorated VORP-Career Average VORP

St. Louis- Pujols/103.2-88.47, Womack/29.8-16.47, Rolen/83.8-55.9, Edmonds, 100.2-61.94, Carpenter, 49.1-15.33, Marquis/48.2-12.95

Los Angeles- Izturis/29.7-(-7.35), Beltre/93.9-25.98, Cora/17.6-0.03, Choi/26.6-NQY, Penny-45.1-21.55, Perez/50.4-21.22, D. Sanchez/19.1-NQY, Weaver/45.1-28.06, Lima/29.5-10.47

Atlanta- Drew/85.4-31.35, Estrada/44.8-NQY, Cruz/23.8-(-1.45), Wright/39.7-7.65, Thomson/25.9-6.6

Chicago- Patterson/44.1-10.8, Lee/58.3-34.38, Ramirez/55.5-32.73, Barrett 37.4-15.73, Zambrano/60.0-15.35, Clement/47.4-21.48

San Francisco- Feliz/19.3-NQY, Tucker/23.0-9.48, Bonds/152.5-82.59, Snow/50.3/20.42, Schmidt/62.9-26.0

Players over 35 VORP by Team (VORP is prorated)

St. Louis- Pujols-103.2, Rolen-83.8, Edmonds-100.2, Carpenter-49.1, Marquis-48.2

Los Angeles- Beltre-93.9, Green-35.9, Finley-43.0, Penny-45.1, Perez-50.4, Weaver-45.1

Atlanta- A. Jones-45.8, Furcal-46.7, Drew-85.4, Estrada-44.8, C. Jones-39.5, Wright-39.7, Ortiz-38.1

Chicago- Patterson-44.1, Lee-58.3, Alou-52.3, Ramirez-55.5, Sosa-35.1, Barret-37.4, Zambrano-60.0, Maddux-46.4, Clement-47.4

San Francisco- Bonds-152.5, Snow-50.3, Schmidt-62.9

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total Similarity Points By Team

------------Point totals closest to zero indicates more similarity to AWSC. Negative point totals indicate that team is worse than AWSC. Positive point totals indicate team is better than AWSC.------------------

St. Louis- 4
Los Angeles- (-6)
Atlanta- (-7)
Chicago- 9
San Francisco- (-5)

The most similar team to the AWSC is obviously St. Louis. But again, the problem that arose in part 2 of this article with the Boston Redsox, and the Oakland A's, has risen again in the National League portion of the article.

The Cubs are much better compared the the AWSC than the Cardinals, but again--like with the Yankees, the Cardinals are the most similar team to the the AWSC, so I predict them to win the National League.

The Cardinals get picked for the same reason the Yankees did in the American League--the best team going in to the playoffs, doesn't always win the playoffs. This has been shown very clearly the past three years by the Diamondbacks, Angels, and Marlins.

So the best team in the AL was Boston, and in the NL it was Chicago. But they WERE NOT the most similar to the AWSC so my prediction for the World Series is the New York Yankees vs. St. Louis Cardinals.

And based on the points awarded in this system I predict the winner of the World Series to be the New York Yankees. The Yankees total 1 similarity point (remember, closest to zero means more similarity to AWSC), while the Cardinals totaled 4 points.

So that's it, there's my prediction. I know everyone that is reading this is thinking, "It doesn't take a genius to predict that the team that currently has the best records both leagues, will make the World Series." And everyone is right. But the difference between my prediction of the Cards vs Yanks is that mine is based on a completely different basis. Which is NOT their respective Win-Loss records. My prediction is based on how similar each of these teams are to the Average World Series Champion of the past three years.

Again, thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.