Serious Baseball

11/02/2004

Free Agent First Basemen

I am sorry it has been so long since my last article was posted.

It's just that the day I was planning on posting this article, I began my four-day long celebration of the Boston Redsox World Series' Victory--which included going to the parade in downtown Boston.

So after the long hiatus, and the long celebration, I continue my series of articles that take a brief look at the 2004 free-agents at each position.

This article will give brief scouting reports on the 2004 crop of free-agent first basemen. The scouting reports are sorted just like those of the catchers' in the previous article ("Free-Agent Catchers").

First basemen are ranked by whom I believe is the best available based on age, recent performance, career numbers, translated numbers, and injuries.


1. Richie Sexson (30): Signed with Mariners, 4 years (50 million) Injured in 2004- 2003 #'s- .272/.379/.548, .927 OPS, 45 HR, 151/98 K/BB, 58.7 VORP////2003 Translated Statistics- .272/.378/.555- .303 EqA////Has hit between 29-45 HR's each year since 2001, except for injury season 2004 where he hit 9 HR's in 23 games before injury////Career batting line of .271/.349/.528--great power////Translated career batting line of .270/.346/.530- .290 EqA////Career K/BB of 2.36/1--////Before Injury, 3 Year trend of EqA going upward (01'-.290, 02'-.295, 03'-.307)////Last three full seasons spent in Miller Park in Milwaukee--a neutral park////

2. Carlos Delgado (33): Coming off injury-plagued 2004 (458 AB)- Signed with Marlins, 4 years/$52 million 2004 #'s- .269/.372/.535, .907 OPS, 32 HR, 115/69 K/BB, 42.8 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .263/.378/.537- .303 EqA////First sub-.400 OBP since '99////Career batting line of .282/.392/.556--great power////Translated Career batting line- .280/.395/.568- .317 EqA////Great career K/BB of 1.5/1--////Spent entire career in Toronto (moderate hitter's park)////

3. Travis Lee (30): Injured in 2004- 2003 #'s- .275/.348/.459, .807 OPS, 19 HR, 97/64 K/BB, 30.1 VORP////2003 Translated Statistics- .277/.358/.471- .283 EqA////Career batting line of .258/.340/.411////Translated batting line of .257/.339/.415- .263 EqA////Great career K/BB of 1.49/1--////Can steal a base, career SB/CS ratio of 47/14////Career high SB- 17 ('99) ////2003 was best season by OPS of his career////Spent career in TB(Neutral park), Phil(moderate pitcher's park), and Az(extreme hitters park)////

4. Brad Fullmer (30): 2004 #'s- .233/.310/.442, .752 OPS, 11 HR, 30/24 K/BB, 4.8 VORP ////2004 Translated Statistics- .220/.303/.431- .250 EqA////Last year was worst of Fullmer's career////Career batting line of .279/.336/.486--Great Power////Translated career batting line of .277/.336/.492- .277 EqA////Very Good Career K/BB of 1.73/1--////Has been a backup the last 2 years///Last four years spent in Texas(severe hitter's park), Anaheim(Slight Pitcher's park), and Toronto(moderate hitters park)////

5. Tino Martinez (37): Signed with Yankees, 1 year/$3 million 2004 #'s- .262/.362/.461, .823 OPS, 23 HR, 72/66 K/BB, 30.7 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .267/.373/.476- .290 EqA////Last year was Martinez's best year since 2001////Career batting line of .272/.345/.472--////Translated career batting line of .278/.352/.498- .285 EqA////Wonderful Career K/BB of 1.37/1////Latest 3 year trend of EqA going up each year(02'-.272, 03'-.276, 04'-.290)////Last three years spent in Tampa Bay (Neutral Park), and St. Louis (Moderate pitcher's park)////

6. J.T. Snow (37): Option picked up by Giants, Coming off injury plagued season, but still put up his career best season, according to OPS in 2004////2004 #'s- .327/.429/.529, .958 OPS, 12 HR, 61/58 K/BB, 46.9 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .322/.427/.519- .322 EqA////Career batting line of .267/.358/.433--////Translated career batting line of .270/.359/.445- .276 EqA////Very good career K/BB of 1.49/1--////Latest 3 year trend of EqA going up every year (02'-.261, 03'-.286, 04'-.322)////Has spent latter half of long career in San Francisco(a severe pitchers park)////

7. Tony Clark (33): Signed by Diamondbacks, 1 year/$750,000 2004 #'s-.221/.297/.458, 755 OPS, 16 HR, 92/26 K/BB, 6.1 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .227/.305/.475- .262 EqA////As you can see by his statistics, he WON'T get on base alot, he WILL strike out alot, he WON'T get alot of basehits, he WON'T walk alot, but he WILL hit some HR's////Career batting line of .264/.340/.481--mostly power////Translated career batting line of .286/.344/.495- .282 EqA////Career K/BB of 2.28/1--////Has been a backup since 2001////Last 4 years of career spent in Yankee Stadium(slight pitcher's park), Fenway Park (slight hitter's park), and Comerica Park(moderate pitchers park)

8. John Olerud (36): 2004 #'s- .259/.359/.374, .733 OPS, 9 HR, 61/61 K/BB, 13.4 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .266/.368/.392- .273 EqA////Last three-year HR trend= 2002-22 HR, 2003-10 HR, 2004- 9 HR////In a steady decline since 2002////Career batting line of .295/.399/.465--////Translated career batting line of .303/.409/.495- .308 EqA////Wonderful career K/BB of 1.26/1--////Latest 3 year trend of EqA going downward (02'-.281, 03'-.278, 04'-.268)////spent last four years in New York Yankees(slight pitchers park) and Seattle(severe pitchers park)////

9. Robert Fick (31): Injured for most of 2004////2003 #'s- .269/.335/.418, .753 OPS, 11 HR, 47/42 K/BB, 14.3 VORP////2003 Translated Statistics-.270/.340/.424- .265 EqA//// Career batting line of .260/.329/.425--////Translated career batting line of .265/.337/.439- .267 EqA////Great career K/BB of 1.59/1--////Latest 3 year trend in EqA going down each year (01'-.283, 02'-.272, 03'-.266)////Spent last four years in Tampa Bay(neutral park), Atlanta(slight pitcher's park), and Detroit(Moderate pitcher's park)////

10. Randall Simon (30)-Didn't play full seasn in 2004 due to being released//// 2004 #'s- .187/.266/.245- .511 OPS, 3 HR, 19/18 K/BB////2004 Translated Statistics- .189/.267/.254- .177 EqA////Played for Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh in 2004 and was released by both////Last full season (+300 AB) in 2003, his numbers that year were .274/.305/.417, .22 OPS, 0 HR, 30/12 K/BB, 6.1 VORP////Career batting line of .283/.320/.424////Translated career batting line of .286/.325/.434, .259 EqA--clearly not as bad as he played last season////Career K/BB of 1.78/1--which surprisingly does not lead to higher OBP////Latest 3 year trend in EqA going down every year (01'-.274, 02'-.271, 03'-.247)////Spent last 4 season in Detroit(moderate pitcher's park), Chicago Cubs (slight pitcher's park), Pittsburgh (neutral park), and Tampa Bay (neutral park)////

11. Rafael Palmeiro (40): Agreed to 1 year deal with Orioles 2004 #'s- .258/.359/.436, .795 OPS, 23 HR, 61/86 K/BB, 31.3 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .258/.368/.445- .282 EqA////According to OPS, Palmeiro had his worst year since 1989////Career batting line of .289/.372/.517--////Translated career batting line of .294/.380/.548- .307 EqA////Unbelievable career K/BB of .996/1--////Latest 3 year trend of EqA going down each year (02'-.317, 03'-.288, 04'-.282)////Recent part of his career spent in Baltimore(severe pitchers park)////

12. Ruben Sierra (39)- Signed with Yankees, 1 yr/$1.5 million 2004 #'s- .244/.296/.456, .752 OPS, 17 HR, 55/25 K/BB, 10.2 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .249/.307/.474- .263 EqA////Career batting line of .269/.317/.452--very good power////Translated career batting line of .277/.329/.494-even better power!!- .276 EqA////Career K/BB of 1.99/1--////Spent last 4 seasons in Yankee Stadium (slight pitcher's park), Texas (severe hitter's park), and Seattle (severe pitcher's park)

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Next up, 2004 free-agent second basemen.

The wait will not be as long as it was between the articles on catchers and first basemen. Even though the celebration will continue throughout the off-seaon.

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.



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