Serious Baseball

10/23/2004

Free Agent Catchers

Now it is the end of the baseball season, and all that is left is the World Series. After that is decided we enter the off-season. The season where free-agents must be resigned by their former teams, or must sign with new teams.

Everybody knows there are alot of high-value free-agents out there, and many teams will covet their services. For this article I want to take a look at the ones that I believe can have a positive impact on any team next year.

This will be the first article of many in a series reviewing free-agents by position.

What these articles will be, is basically a small scouting report on each free-agent, that you can refer to in the future, to know how valuable each player is.

This article, as can be seen in the title, will look at this years crop of free-agent catchers.

Before I get started I would like to point out that this year's crop of free-agent catchers is very sub-par. There are only a few catchers available that have the capability to make a noticeable difference for any team.

The free-agent list consisted of 31 catchers. I cut this list down to ten, based on which catchers I believe can possibly make an immediate positive impact on whatever team they sign with.

The ten catchers on my new list were Jason Varitek, Doug Mirabelli, Todd Greene, Gregg Zaun, Damian Miller, Mike Redmond, Mike Matheny, John Flaherty, Todd Pratt, and Javier Valentin.

My opinions on these catchers were based on their age, recent performance, ballpark factors, career numbers, and translated statistics.

Translated statistics are player's numbers adjusted for ballpark factors, quality of competition (pitching), and league offensive level.

In the scouting reports, these translated statistics will be followed by Equivlent Average (EqA). Equivalent Average is a measure of total offensive value per out, with corrections for league offensive level, home park, and team pitching. EqA considers batting as well as baserunning, but not the value of a position player's defense. The scale is deliberately set to approximate that of batting average. Average is .260.

--Definition of EqA provided by Baseball Prospectus.

Here is a small scouting report on each of those free-agents. Each player will be listed by ranking of which catcher I believe is the best available. Players age for 2005 season in parenthesees.

Actual statistics and translated statistics are present in scouting reports. Translations are performed by Clay Davenport at Baseball Prospectucs.

1. Jason Varitek (33)- Signed with Red Sox, 4 years ($40 million) 2004 #'s- .296/.390/.482, .872 OPS, 18 HR, 126/62 K/BB, 47.3 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .292/.390/.485, .300 EqA////Coming of his career-best season according to OPS///Has spent his whole career in Fenway Park--a slight hitter's park///Career batting line of .271/.347/.451--///Translated career batting line of .269/.349/.456, .275 EqA////Career K/BB ratio is less than 2/1--///


2. Doug Mirabelli (34)- Signed with Boston (2 years-$3 million) 2004 #'s- .281/.331/.525, .856 OPS, 9 HR, 46/19 K/BB, 15.8 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .276/.366/.533, .299 EqA////Never has been a full time catcher////2004 represented his career highs in AVG/OBP/SLG and HR (tied-9 in 2001)///2.14/1 career K/BB////Career batting line of .242/.331/.426--good power///Translated career batting line of .243/.333/.431, .264 EqA////spent 4 of last 5 years in Fenway Park--a slight hitter's park///

3. Damian Miller (35)- Signed with Milwaukee (3 years-$8.5 million) 2004 #'s- .272/.339/.403, .742 OPS, 9 HR, 87/39 K/BB, 20.1 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .275/.344/.413, .263 EqA////Has hit between 9-13 HR every year since '99////Career 2.52/1 K/BB ratio/// Career batting line of .264/.331/.419--////Translated career batting line of .259/.325/.416, .256 EqA////'04 in Oakland in a neutral park, '03 in Wrigley Field--a slight pitcher's park, and '99-'02 in Arizona's Bank One Ballpark--a severe hitters park, and his SLG% in those years show it (.446,.446,.441,.424,.434)////

4. Gregg Zaun (34)- Signed with Bluejays, 1 year/$1.5 million 2004 #'s- .269/.367/.393, .760 OPS, 6 HR, 61/47 K/BB, 17.6 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .263/.368/.389, .267 EqA////Mostly a backup throughout career////Great career K/BB of 1.1/1, which surprisingly doesn't lead to high career OBP///Career batting line of .250/.331/.375--///Translated career batting line of .246/.336/.377, .252 EqA////Not alot of power, career high in HR is 7 (2000)////Spent 2000-2004 in moderate (Hou, Tor) to severe (KC, Col) hitter's parks////

5. Mike Redmond (34)- Signed with Minnesota (2 years-$1.8 million) 2004 #'s- .256/.315/.341, .656 OPS, 2 HR, 28/41 K/BB, 3.8 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .258/.316/.352, .237 EqA////Biggest question mark of all free agent catchers, look at translated career batting lines by year:

1998- .336/.374/.460, .286 EqA (118 AB)
1999- .299/.371/.351, .260 EqA (242 AB)
2000- .249/.308/.299, .218 EqA (210 AB)
2001- .314/.376/.438, .283 EqA (141 AB)
2002- .319/.386/.395, .274 EqA (256 AB)
2003- .242/.307/.325, .227 EqA (125 AB)
2004- ..238/.316/.352, .237 EqA (246 AB)

Ranked #5 because of possiblility of repeating either 2001 or 2002 as a backup////Very little HR power (Career High 4 HR (2001)///Great career K/BB of 1.61/1--////Possibly too old to even consider a repeat of "glory years"////Translated career batting line of .237/.287/.368, .254 EqA////Has spent entire career in severe pitchers park (FLA)///

6. Javier Valentin (29)- Signed with Reds, 1 yr/$450,000 2004 #'s- .233/.293/.381, .674 OPS, 6 HR, 36/17 K/BB, 1.9 VORP///2004 Translated Statistics- .237/.298/.381, .237 EqA////Ranked #6 simply because he is youngest of group and has improved in all categories over his 2003 campaign (.222/.254/.356, .610 OPS, 31/15 K/BB, 3 HR)////Career K/BB of 2.52/1--///Career batting line of .229/.283/.360--///Translated Career batting line of .237/.284/.361, .226 EqA////Out of Major League Baseball in 2000 and 2001///Since his return in 2002 has spent all his time in neutral parks (Cin, TB, and Min)

7. Todd Greene (34)- Signed with Rockies, 1 years ($750,000) 2004 #'s- .282/.325/.508, .833 OPS, 10 HR, 38/13 K/BB, 12.5 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .262/.305/.476, .263 EqA//// Strictly power as a backup his entire career (except '99 in Anaheim)////Horrible K/BB of more than 5.0/1 for his career (main reason for such low ranking)////Career batting line of .248/.279/.445--all power///Translated Career Batting line of .241/.273/.440, .240 EqA////spent last three seasons in hitter-friendly Texas and Colorado///

8. Todd Pratt (38)- Signed with Phillies, 1 year ($750,000) 2004 #'s- .258/.351/.367, .718 OPS, 3 HR, 38/18 K/BB, 4.9 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .258/.352/.355, .254 EqA////Has very little HR power (Career High 8 HR in 2000)////Career Backup//// Good Career K/BB of 2.03/1 which leads to high career OBP of .352--////Career batting line of .255/.352/.404--///Translated career batting line of .256/.351/.409, .267 EqA////going to be 38 next year///Last year was spent in new Philadelphia park, which turned out to be a slight hitters park///

9. John Flaherty (37)- Signed with NY Yankees (1 year) 2004 #'s- .252/.286/.465, .751 OPS, 6 HR, 25/5 K/BB, 3.8 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .258/.293/.475, .253 EqA////Decent power (career high 14 HR in '99)////Career K/BB of 2.89/1////As a backup the last two years had great SLG% (.457 in '03, and .465 in '04) in slight pitchers park (NYY)////Career Batting line of .255/.293/.382--////Translated Career batting line of .256/.294/.390, .236 EqA////Going to be 37 next year////

10. Mike Matheny (34)- Signed with Giants, 3 years ($10.5 million) 2004 #'s- .247/.282/.348, .630 OPS, 5 HR, 83/28 K/BB, (-0.8) VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .249/.294/.351, .225 EqA////Absolutely Horrible career batting line of .239/.293/.336--////Translated career batting line of .238/.292/.335, .222 EqA////Career high is 8 HR ('96 and '03)////Career K/BB of 2.42/1--////Great defensive catcher (only thing that must keep him around)////Since 2000 has played in moderate pitcher's park (StL)

After Varitek, there is a tremendous drop-off in the quality of catchers.

Another point to notice is that no catcher on this list, besides Valentin are on the good side of 30. They are all older, and can have a significant drop-off any time now. Another reason that this is a sub-par crop of free agent catchers.

Any of the free-agent catchers I left off this list can obviously have an impact on a team as well, but based on their age, career numbers, recent numbers, and translated numbers, they have a much smaller chance, and therefore weren't included in my scouting report.

For reference though, here is the complete list of catchers that are free-agents in 2004:

Einar Diaz
Robert Machado
Mike DiFelice
A.J. Hinch
Bobby Estaella
Gary Bennett
Pat Borders
Tim Laker
Ramon Castro
Jason Varitek
Sandy Alomar Jr.
Doug Mirabelli
Todd Greene
Gregg Zaun
Kelly Stinett
Mike Redmond
John Flaherty
Damian Miller
Dan Wilson
Brook Fordyce
Greg Myers
Brent Mayne
Todd Hundley
Todd Pratt
Mike Matheny
Chris Widger
Alberto Castillo
Keith Osik
Ken Huckaby
Paul Bako
Javier Valentin

If there are any catchers on this list that you think I should have prepared a scouting report for, please let me know by writing me an email at frnkbndy@yahoo.com. I will prepare a scouting report for any of these catchers if the complaint is reasonable.

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

1 Comments:

  • Technically, Benjie Molina of the Angels could become a free agent if the team buys out his contract ($100k option). It's unlikely, given the distance between them and prospect Jeff Mathis.

    By Blogger Rob, at 6:08 PM  

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