World Series Prediction (Part 4 - Astros)

When I originally wrote my "World Series Prediction" articles, I left the Houston Astros out of that analysis but said that if they got to within one half game of the NL wild card, I would perform the necessary analysis on them. Well here it is, September 29, and the Astros are one half game behind the Cubs for the Wild Card.

So as promised, here is their analysis comparing them to the Average World Series Champion of the past three years (AWSC).

****Please read the previous installments of "World Series Predictions", if you haven't already, to find out what I am analyzing, and comparing. And to find out what numbers I used in the comparison. Basically... one must at least glance through the previous articles to find out the "who, what, where, when, why, and how" of this article.****

Category (AWSC)-Team/Stat(Number)/Points/

Career Year Players (8)--Hou/3/-1
Career Year Pitchers (5)-Hou/1/-1
Career Year Hitters (3)--Hou/2/-1

Breakout Year Players (6)--Hou/1/-1
Breakout Year Pitchers (4)--Hou/1/-1
Breakout Year Hitters (2)--Hou/0/-1

Players +70 VORP (1)--Hou/2/+1
Players +60 VORP (1)--Hou/3/+1
Players +50 VORP (2)--Hou/3/+1
Players +40 VORP (5)--Hou/5/0
Players +35 VORP (7)--Hou/7/0

Pitchers +70 VORP (1)--Hou/0/-1
Pitchers +60 VORP (1)--Hou/1/0
Pitchers +50 VORP (1)--Hou/1/0
Pitchers +40 VORP (2)--Hou/2/0
Pitchers +35 VORP (3)--Hou/3/0

Hitters +70 VORP (0)--Hou/2/+1
Hitters +60 VORP (0)--Hou/2/+1
Hitters +50 VORP (1)--Hou/2/+1
Hitters +40 VORP (3)--Hou/3/0
Hitters +35 VORP (4)--Hou/4/0

Offensive Team Stats

AVG (.272)---Hou/.266/0
OBP (.338)---Hou/.342/0
SLG (.432)---Hou/.434/0
HITS (1519)--Hou/1451/-1/
HR (172)---Hou/181/0
K (945)----Hou/997/-1/
BB (521)---Hou/588/+1
XBH (512)--Hou/512/0
ISOP (.160)--Hou/.167/0
SECA (.264)--Hou/.285/+1
BB/K (0.55)--Hou/0.59/0
RUNS (807)---Hou/794/-1

Pitching Teams Stats

ERA (3.87)--Hou/4.08/-1/
BAA (.251)--Hou/.258/0
K/9 (7.07)--Hou/7.93/+1
K/BB (2.29)--Hou/2.40/+1
WHIP (1.29)--Hou/1.35/0
OBP (.315)---Hou/.325/0
SLG (.397)---Hou/.417/-1
K (1143)---Hou/1264/+1
BB (500)--Hou/526/-1
HR (192)--Hou/174/+1

Career Year Players for Houston(2004 prorated VORP 13 or more runs above career average VORP)

--------Breakout Year indicated in bold (Career Year with less than 3 QY)----------

Team- Player/2004 prorated VORP-Career Average VORP

Houston- Berkman/81.3-62.45, Beltran/71.0-43.54, Lidge/37.8-17.0


Players over 35 VORP for Houston(VORP is prorated)

Houston- Bagwell-36.0, Berkman-81.3, Kent-46.8, Beltran-71.0, Lidge-37.8, Clemens-63.1, Oswalt-49.7

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total Similarity Points for Houston- (-1)

Here is Houston's total similarity points stacked against the other National League Playoff contenders similarity points (as figured out in earlier articles).

------Point totals closest to zero indicates more similarity to AWSC. Negative point totals indicate that team is worse than AWSC. Positive point totals indicate team is better than AWSC.-------------

St. Louis- 4
Los Angeles- (-6)
Atlanta- (-7)
Chicago- 9
San Francisco- (-5)
Houston- (-1)

As we can see, Houston is now the closest to the AWSC, they are a little worse than the AWSC, but they are closer. Because of this, I change my prediction to the Houston Astros as the team to represent the National League in the World Series.

Obviously, this prediction can only become true if Houston does make the playoffs. If they do not, my prediction will return to St. Louis as of the beginning of the playoffs (based on similarity points closest to zero).

For the current moment in time (September, 29 2004 @ 6:53 PM EST) though, I am predicting an Astros vs. Yankees World Series.

As for my prediction of the winner of the World Series, that goes to the Yankees.

The Yankees Total Similarity points = 1.

I know that both the Astros and Yankees are equal distances from zero, but since the Yankees are one point away from zero on the positive side, as opposed to the Astros being only one point away on the negative side of zero, I have to go with the Yankees as the winner, because they are a better team according to this comparison.

Now the analysis is complete.

Final Predictions

National League Champion= Houston Astros (if they make playoffs, if not, my prediction is St. Louis)

American League Champion= New York Yankees

World Series Champion= New York Yankees (I predict the Yankees will beat either Houston, or St. Louis.)

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

Did the O's get what they paid For???

We all know that last year, Javy Lopez of the Atlanta Braves had a career year. The numbers he put up in 2003 were .328/.378/.687, 90/33 (2.72) K/BB, 3.56 Pitches/PA, and 43 HR. No doubt these were amazing numbers, which earned him a huge contract from Peter Angelos and the Orioles which had him switch leagues, and play catcher in Baltimore.

Now since I am not a GM (but would love to be one), I cannot possibly fathom what Angelos, and the Orioles' GM's Mike Flanagan, and Jim Beattie were expecting out of Lopez this year. Although I can sleep well at night knowing that they definitely DID NOT expect a repeat of Lopez's 2003. I believe they would expect Lopez to "split the difference" of his 2003, and his career averages. So after doing the math, and comparing Lopez's career averages, including 2003, to his 2003 campaign with Atlanta, I came up with what I believe the Baltimore organization would expect from Lopez in 2004.

First here are Javy Lopez's career averages after 2003 (before 2004 season began):

.287 AVG/.337 OBP/.502 SLG,
728/271 (2.69) K/BB,
3.39 Pitches/PA
18 HR

Now, taking his career totals in all the necessary statistical categories, figuring out the difference between those numbers and his 2003 season, then dividing the difference by two; I came up with a season that "split the difference" between his 2003, and his career average year. This would be Lopez's "expected year" in 2004:

.311 AVG/ .360 OBP/ .596 SLG
76/28 (2.71) K/BB
3.49 Pitches/PA
31 HR

Here is the year that Lopez put up in 2004 (prorated for the last week of the season):

.314 AVG/ .369 OBP/ .490 SLG
98/49 (2.00) K/BB
3.45 Pitches/PA
21 HR

We can see that Lopez definitely met his expected levels of AVG, and Pitches/PA, but he came up short on HR and SLG, but significantly improved his K/BB, and improved his OBP.

So now back to the question at hand, "Did the O's get what they paid for?" I believe the answer is no. While it is nice to have a better K/BB, and OBP than expected, I do not believe that this made up for the drop in Lopez's expected HR and SLG.


----This answer CAN change over the course of the next few years, obviously--

I'm sure that Baltimore would trade Lopez's 2.00 K/BB (which is the reason for his higher OBP), for a 2.71 K/BB if he were to get .106 more points of SLG (.596-.490), and 10 more HR (31-21) out of Lopez.

Basically what I am saying is that Lopez was expected to put up a .956 OPS, but put up a .859 OPS, which is much closer to his career average of .839 OPS. While this is a great OPS, Lopez always kept that high OPS by having that .502 career SLG in his back pocket-- not by having a .369 OBP (2004).

The way in which Lopez put up that .859 OPS, is not what I believe Baltimore wanted. Although, the OPS is there, and I guess that is all that matters.

Lopez is putting up this OPS more like a number 2 hitter would, rather than the way a number 3-4-or 5 hitter would.

This is not to say that Javy Lopez is not having a great year, just a year that is less than what was expected.

Next year could be a great year for Lopez though, because this is the first year that he has displayed great plate discipline, as seen by his K/BB ratio, and that kind of discipline usually leads to great years.

Like I said earlier, I'm sure Peter Angelos and the rest of Baltimore would have taken a free-swinging Javy Lopez who put up a number closer to his career .502 SLG, than this ever-patient Javy Lopez who hit 12 points below his career SLG and 109 points lower than his expected SLG.

Remember, the value of Lopez as an Oriole cannot be fully measured until the end of his contract there.

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comment, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me @ frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

World Series Prediction (Part 3)

Welcome Back!! Thank you to those who waited patiently while I conducted research on the National League Playoff contenders.

As of the moment I am writing this article, the legitimate playoff contenders in the NL are Atlanta, Los Angeles, St. Louis, San Francisco, Chicago, and Houston. Of these six contenders, I have decided to analyze the first five in an effort to keep the analysis focused on the teams with the best chance; and right now with Houston being 1 1/2 games behind San Francisco and Chicago for the Wildcard, I have decided to leave them out--FOR NOW. If Houston gets within a half game, I will conduct the necessary research and include them in the analysis.

So let's quickly catch up. I am comparing each playoff contender in each league to the Average World Series Champion (AWSC) of the past three years (2001 Arizona Diamondbacks, 2002 Anaheim Angels, and the 2003 Florida Marlins).

The complete details of the analysis are in part one of the article, while the American League portion of this analysis is in part two. Please read these articles, if you haven't already--or this article and analysis will make not make any sense!!.

As seen in part two, I have predicted the New York Yankees to represent the American League in the World Series in 2004 because of how much more they are similar to the AWSC than any of the other AL playoff contenders.

Now to the National League.

Here are the numbers presented as they were for the AL teams:

Category (AWSC)-Team/Stat(Number)/Points/

Career Year Players (8)--StL/6/-1/---LA/9/+1/---Atl/5/-1/---Chc/6/-1/---SF/5/-1/
Career Year Pitchers (5)-StL/2/-1/---LA/5/0/---Atl/3/-1/---Chc/2/-1/---SF/1/-1/
Career Year Hitters (3)--StL/4/+1/---LA/4/+1/---Atl/2/-1/---Chc/4/+1/---SF/4/+1/

Breakout Year Players (6)--StL/2/-1/--LA/4/-1/--Atl/2/-1/--Chc/4/-1/---SF/1/-1/
Breakout Year Pitchers (4)--StL/1/-1/--LA/1/-1/--Atl/1/-1/--Chc/1/-1/--SF/0/-1/
Breakout Year Hitters (2)--StL/1/-1/---LA/3/+1/---Atl/1/-1/---Chc/3/+1/---SF/1/-1/

Players +70 VORP (1)--StL/3/+1/---LA/1/0/---Atl/1/0/---Chc/0/-1/---SF/1/0/
Players +60 VORP (1)--StL/3/+1/---LA/1/0/---Atl/1/0/---Chc/1/0/---SF/2/+1/
Players +50 VORP (2)--StL/3/+1/---LA/2/0/---Atl/1/-1/---Chc/4/+1/---SF/3/+1/
Players +40 VORP (5)--StL/5/0/---LA/5/0/---Atl/4/-1/---Chc/7/+1/---SF/3/-1/
Players +35 VORP (7)--StL/5/-1/---LA/6/-1/---Atl/7/0/---Chc/9/+1/---SF/3/-1/

Pitchers +70 VORP (1)--StL/0/-1/---LA/0/-1/---Atl/0/-1/---Chc/0/-1/---SF/0/-1/
Pitchers +60 VORP (1)--StL/0/-1/---LA/0/-1/---Atl/0/-1/---Chc/1/0/---SF/1/0/
Pitchers +50 VORP (1)--StL/0/-1/---LA/1/0/---Atl/0/-1/---Chc/1/0/---SF/1/0/
Pitchers +40 VORP (2)--StL/2/0/---LA/3/+1/---Atl/0/-1/---Chc/3/+1/---SF/1/-1/
Pitchers +35 VORP (3)--StL/2/-1/---LA/3/0/---Atl/2/-1/---Chc/3/0/---SF/1/-1/

Hitters +70 VORP (0)--StL/3/+1/---LA/1/+1/---Atl/1/+1/---Chc/0/0/---SF/1/+1/
Hitters +60 VORP (0)--StL/3/+1/---LA/1/+1/---Atl/1/+1/---Chc/0/0/---SF/1/+1/
Hitters +50 VORP (1)--StL/3/+1/---LA/1/0/---Atl/1/0/---Chc/3/+1/---SF/2/+1/
Hitters +40 VORP (3)--StL/3/0/---LA/2/-1/---Atl/4/+1/---Chc/4/+1/---SF/2/-1/
Hitters +35 VORP (4)--StL/3/-1/---LA/3/-1/---Atl/5/+1/---Chc/6/+1/---SF/2/-1/

Offensive Team Stats

AVG (.272)---StL/.277/0/---LA/.266/0/---Atl/.273/0/---Chc/.271/0/---SF/.269/0/
OBP (.338)---StL/.344/0/---LA/.335/0/---Atl/.345/0/---Chc/.328/0/---SF/.357/+1/
SLG (.432)---StL/.464/+1/---LA/.428/0/---Atl/.438/0/---Chc/.464/+1/---SF/.438/0/
HITS (1519)--StL/1543/+1/--LA/1480/-1/--Atl/1561/+1/--Chc/1534/+1/--SF/1561/+1/
HR (172)---StL/187/+1/---LA/204/+1/---Atl/184/+1/---Chc/240/+1/---SF/194/+1/
K (945)----StL/1065/-1/---LA/1072/-1/---Atl/1192/-1/---Chc/1083/-1/---SF/895/+1/
BB (521)---StL/550/+1/---LA/522/0/---Atl/597/+1/---Chc/465/-1/---SF/745/+1/
XBH (512)--StL/573/+1/---LA/459/-1/---Atl/543/+1/---Chc/582/+1/---SF/557/+1/
ISOP (.160)--StL/.186/+1/---LA/.162/0/---Atl/.165/0/---Chc/.193/+1/---SF/.169/0/
SECA (.264)--StL/.297/+1/---LA/.268/0/---Atl/.277/+1/---Chc/.282/+1/---SF/.301/+1/
BB/K (0.55)---StL/0.52/0/---LA/0.49/0/---Atl/0.50/0/---Chc/0.43/-1/---SF/0.83/+1/
RUNS (807)---StL/870/+1/---LA/770/-1/---Atl/825/+1/---Chc/812/+1/---SF/812/+1/

Pitching Teams Stats

ERA (3.87)--StL/3.74/+1/---LA/3.85/0/---Atl/3.73/+1/---Chc/3.81/0/---SF/4.38/-1/
BAA (.251)--StL/.251/0/---LA/.249/0/---Atl/.265/-1/---Chc/.250/0/---SF/.268/-1/
K/9 (7.07)--StL/6.34/-1/---LA/6.62/-1/---Atl/6.35/-1/---Chc/8.10/+1/---SF/6.29/-1/
K/BB (2.29)--StL/2.36/0/---LA/2.19/-1/---Atl/1.93/-1/---Chc/2.37/0/---SF/1.86/-1/
WHIP (1.29)--StL/1.24/0/---LA/1.27/0/---Atl/1.38/0/---Chc/1.32/0/---SF/1.41/-1/
OBP (.315)---StL/.308/0/---LA/.312/0/---Atl/.325/0/---Chc/.320/0/---SF/.331/-1/
SLG (.397)---StL/.403/0/---LA/.399/0/---Atl/.398/0/---Chc/.398/0/---SF/.426/-1/
K (1143)---StL/1029/-1/---LA/1072/-1/---Atl/1048/-1/---Chc/1326/+1/---SF/1062/-1/
BB (500)--StL/435/+1/---LA/495/0/---Atl/543/-1/---Chc/559/-1/---SF/559/-1/
HR (192)--StL/177/+1/---LA/171/+1/---Atl/158/+1/---Chc/168/+1/---SF/163/+1/

Career Year Players by Team (2004 prorated VORP 13 or more runs above career average VORP)
--------Breakout Year indicated in bold (Career Year with less than 3 QY)----------

Team- Player/2004 prorated VORP-Career Average VORP

St. Louis- Pujols/103.2-88.47, Womack/29.8-16.47, Rolen/83.8-55.9, Edmonds, 100.2-61.94, Carpenter, 49.1-15.33, Marquis/48.2-12.95

Los Angeles- Izturis/29.7-(-7.35), Beltre/93.9-25.98, Cora/17.6-0.03, Choi/26.6-NQY, Penny-45.1-21.55, Perez/50.4-21.22, D. Sanchez/19.1-NQY, Weaver/45.1-28.06, Lima/29.5-10.47

Atlanta- Drew/85.4-31.35, Estrada/44.8-NQY, Cruz/23.8-(-1.45), Wright/39.7-7.65, Thomson/25.9-6.6

Chicago- Patterson/44.1-10.8, Lee/58.3-34.38, Ramirez/55.5-32.73, Barrett 37.4-15.73, Zambrano/60.0-15.35, Clement/47.4-21.48

San Francisco- Feliz/19.3-NQY, Tucker/23.0-9.48, Bonds/152.5-82.59, Snow/50.3/20.42, Schmidt/62.9-26.0

Players over 35 VORP by Team (VORP is prorated)

St. Louis- Pujols-103.2, Rolen-83.8, Edmonds-100.2, Carpenter-49.1, Marquis-48.2

Los Angeles- Beltre-93.9, Green-35.9, Finley-43.0, Penny-45.1, Perez-50.4, Weaver-45.1

Atlanta- A. Jones-45.8, Furcal-46.7, Drew-85.4, Estrada-44.8, C. Jones-39.5, Wright-39.7, Ortiz-38.1

Chicago- Patterson-44.1, Lee-58.3, Alou-52.3, Ramirez-55.5, Sosa-35.1, Barret-37.4, Zambrano-60.0, Maddux-46.4, Clement-47.4

San Francisco- Bonds-152.5, Snow-50.3, Schmidt-62.9

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total Similarity Points By Team

------------Point totals closest to zero indicates more similarity to AWSC. Negative point totals indicate that team is worse than AWSC. Positive point totals indicate team is better than AWSC.------------------

St. Louis- 4
Los Angeles- (-6)
Atlanta- (-7)
Chicago- 9
San Francisco- (-5)

The most similar team to the AWSC is obviously St. Louis. But again, the problem that arose in part 2 of this article with the Boston Redsox, and the Oakland A's, has risen again in the National League portion of the article.

The Cubs are much better compared the the AWSC than the Cardinals, but again--like with the Yankees, the Cardinals are the most similar team to the the AWSC, so I predict them to win the National League.

The Cardinals get picked for the same reason the Yankees did in the American League--the best team going in to the playoffs, doesn't always win the playoffs. This has been shown very clearly the past three years by the Diamondbacks, Angels, and Marlins.

So the best team in the AL was Boston, and in the NL it was Chicago. But they WERE NOT the most similar to the AWSC so my prediction for the World Series is the New York Yankees vs. St. Louis Cardinals.

And based on the points awarded in this system I predict the winner of the World Series to be the New York Yankees. The Yankees total 1 similarity point (remember, closest to zero means more similarity to AWSC), while the Cardinals totaled 4 points.

So that's it, there's my prediction. I know everyone that is reading this is thinking, "It doesn't take a genius to predict that the team that currently has the best records both leagues, will make the World Series." And everyone is right. But the difference between my prediction of the Cards vs Yanks is that mine is based on a completely different basis. Which is NOT their respective Win-Loss records. My prediction is based on how similar each of these teams are to the Average World Series Champion of the past three years.

Again, thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

World Series Prediction (Part 2)

Welcome back. I've just completed my comparablitly analysis of the American League 2004 playoff contenders (Boston Redsox, New York Yankees, Oakland A's, Anaheim Angels, and the Minnesota Twins); to see how they stack up against the average World Series Champions of the last 3 years (2001 Arizona Diamondbacks, 2002 Anaheim Angels, and the 2003 Florida Marlins).

Let's get right into it. There were 43 categories of comparability. These categories were as follows:

Team Pitching Stats-- ERA, BAA, K/9, K/BB, WHIP, OBP, SLG, K, BB, and HR (10 categories)

Team Offensive Stats-- AVG, OBP, SLG, Hits, HR, K, BB, XBH, ISOP, SECA, BB/K, Runs (12 categories)

Other comparabiltiy categories-- Career Year Players (players putting up career years: a player is defined as putting up a career year when his VORP is+13 over his career average - 1 category)

Career Year Pitchers (1 category)
Career Year Offensive Players (1 category)

Breakout Year Players-- (players putting up career years but with less than 3 QY as experience: a player is defined a putting up a career year when his VORP is+13 over his career average - 1 category))

Breakout Year Pitchers (1 category)
Breakout Year Offensive Players (1 category)

# of Players with +70, +60, +50, +40, +35 VORP (5 categories)
# of Pithcers with +70, +60, +50, +40, +35 VORP (5 categories)
# of Offensive Players with +70, +60, +50, +40, +35 VORP (5 categories)

43 Total Comparability Categories

Each teams numbers in each category were given either -1 point, 0 points, or +1 points based on how similar they were to the Average World Series Championship (AWSC) team in each category.

For example: AWSC-------------2004 Oakland A's
Batting Average: .272--------------------------.274

The A's were given 0 points in this Batting Average category because they were within 10 points on either side of the AWSC average. If the A's were more than 10 points less than the AWSC average, they would have been given -1 points, then subsequently, if they were more than ten points above the AWSC average, they would have been given +1 points.

I used this +10/-10 way of scoring for all the team statistics. If a team was within 10 points of the AWSC statistic (whether it be K, BB, HR, Avg, etc...) they were graded as similar to the AWSC and given 0 points. If they were 10 points or more below, they were awarded -1 points, and if they were 10 points or more above they were awarded +1 point.

For the career year, breakout year, and levels of VORP comparabiliy categories, I would round to the nearest whole number for the decimal points that were given as averages in the AWSC analysis.

For Example : The AWSC had an average of 1.33 Offensive Players post a +50 VORP. This was rounded to 1. So in the comparison, the AWCS had 1 player post a +50 VORP.

Obviously, for these career year, breakout year, and VORP level comparisons, the -10/+10 scoring system was not used. A current team had to post the exact equal number in these categories to be awarded 0 points. If the team had more than the AWCS in these categories, they were awared +1 point, and if they had less than the AWSC in these categories, they were awarded -1 point.

Here is the comparison:

Category (AWSC)-Team/Stat(Number)/Points/

Career Year Players (8)--Bos/4/-1/---NY/3/-1/---Oak/11/+1/---Min/6/-1/---Ana/4/-1/
Career Year Pitchers (5)-Bos/1/-1/---NY/2/-1/---Oak/3/-1/---Min/5/0/---Ana/2/-1/
Career Year Hitters (3)--Bos/3/0/---NY/1/-1/---Oak/8/+1/---Min/1/-1/---Ana/2/-1/

Breakout Year Players (6)--Bos/2/-1/---NY/1/-1/---Oak/7/+1/---Min/4/-1/---Ana/3/-1/
Breakout Year Pitchers (4)--Bos/1/-1/---NY/0/-1/---Oak/2/-1/---Min/3/-1/---Ana/1/-1/
Breakout Year Hitters (2)---Bos/1/-1/---NY/1/-1/---Oak/5/+1/---Min/1/-1/---Ana/2/0/

# of Players +70 VORP (1)--Bos/2/+1---NY/1/0/---Oak/0/-1/---Min/1/0/---Ana/1/0/
# of Players +60 VORP (1)--Bos/4/+1/---NY/2/+1/---Oak/2/+1/---Min/1/0/---Ana/2/0/
# of Players +50 VORP (2)--Bos/6/+1/---NY/4/+1/---Oak/4/+1/---Min/3/+1/---Ana/1/-1/
# of Players +40 VORP (5)--Bos/8/+1---NY/6/+1/---Oak/8/+1/---Min/3/-1/---Ana/3/-1/
# of Players +35 VORP (7)--Bos/8/+1/---NY/8/+1/---Oak/8/+1/---Min/5/-1/---Ana/5/-1/

# of Pitchers +70 VORP (1)--Bos/0/-1/---NY/0/-1/---Oak/0/-1/---Min/1/0/---Ana/0/-1/
# of Pitchers +60 VORP (1)--Bos/2/+1/---NY/0/-1/---Oak/1/0/---Min/1/0/---Ana/0/-1/
# of Pitchers +50 VORP (1)--Bos/2/+1/---NY/0/-1/---Oak/2/+1/---Min/2/+1/---Ana/0/-1/ # of Pitchers +40 VORP (2)--Bos/3/+1/---NY/1/-1/---Oak/3/+1/---Min/2/0/---Ana/1/-1/
# of Pitchers +35 VORP (3)--Bos/3/0/---NY/3/0/---Oak/3/0/---Min/3/0/---Ana/2/-1/

# of Hitters +70 VORP (0)--Bos/2/+1/---NY/1/+1/---Oak/0/0/---Min/0/0/---Ana/1/+1/
# of Hitters +60 VORP (0)--Bos/2/+1/---NY/2/+1/---Oak/1/+1/---Min/0/0/---Ana/1/+1/
# of Hitters +50 VORP (1)--Bos/4/+1/---NY/4/+1/---Oak/2/+1/---Min/1/0/---Ana/1/0/
# of Hitters +40 VORP (3)--Bos/5/+1/---NY/5/+1/---Oak/5/+1/---Min/1/-1/---Ana/2/-1/
# of Hitters +35 VORP (4)--Bos/5/+1/---NY/5/+1/---Oak/5/+1/---Min/2/-1/---Ana/3/-1/

Offensive Team Stats
AVG (.272)---Bos/.285/+1/---NY/.266/0/---Oak/.274/0/---Min/.263/0/---Ana/.288/+1/
OBP (.338)---Bos/.362/+1/---NY/.352/+1/---Oak/.348/0/---Min/.329/0/---Ana/.345/0/
SLG (.432)---Bos/.476/+1/---NY/.457/+1/---Oak/.442/0/---Min/.429/0/---Ana/.434/0/
HITS (1519)--Bos/1628/+1/--NY/1480/-1/--Oak/1595/+1/--Min/1502/-1/--Ana/1673/+1/
HR (172)---Bos/222/+1/---NY/250/+1/---Oak/203/+1/---Min/192/+1/---Ana/162/0/
K (945)----Bos/1178/-1/---NY/996/-1/---Oak/1063/-1/---Min/997/-1/---Ana/943/0/
BB (521)---Bos/665/+1/---NY/685/+1/---Oak/617/+1/---Min/514/0/---Ana/444/-1/
XBH (512)--Bos/622/+1/---NY/552/+1/---Oak/550/+1/---Min/534/+1/---Ana/487/-1/
ISOP (.160)--Bos/.191/+1/---NY/.192/+1/---Oak/.167/0/---Min/.166/0/---Ana/.146/-1/
SECA (.264)--Bos/.312/+1/---NY/.324+1/---Oak/.277/+1/---Min/.269/0/---Ana/.239/-1/
BB/K (0.55)---Bos/0.56/0/---NY/0.69/+1/---Oak/0.58/0/---Min/0.52/0/---Ana/0.47/0/
RUNS (807)---Bos/935/+1/---NY/889/+1/---Oak/839/+1/---Min/774/-1/---Ana/860/+1/

Pitching Teams Stats
ERA (3.87)--Bos/4.09/-1/---NY/4.67/-1/---Oak/4.00/-1/---Min/4.04/-1/---Ana/4.39/-1/
BAA (.251)--Bos/.257/0/---NY/.272/-1/---Oak/.259/0/---Min/.268/-1/---Ana/.265/-1/
K/9 (7.07)--Bos/7.09/0/---NY/6.42/-1/---Oak/6.28/-1/---Min/6.85/-1/---Ana/7.21/+1/
K/BB (2.29)--Bos/2.60/+1/---NY/2.38/0/---Oak/1.92/-1/---Min/2.68/+1/---Ana/2.29/0/
WHIP (1.29)--Bos/1.29/0/---NY/1.36/0/---Oak/1.34/0/---Min/1.32/0/---Ana/1.38/0/
OBP (.315)---Bos/.317/0/---NY/.326/-1/---Oak/.326/-1/---Min/.320/0/---Ana/.327/-1/
SLG (.397)---Bos/.407/0/---NY/.436/-1/---Oak/.402/0/---Min/.408/-1/---Ana/.428/-1/
K (1143)---Bos/1144/0/---NY/1040/-1/---Oak/1037/-1/---Min/1145/0/---Ana/1183/+1/
BB (500)--Bos/440/+1/---NY/437/+1/---Oak/540/-1/---Min/427/+1/---Ana/517/-1/
HR (192)--Bos/151/+1/---NY/190/0/---Oak/162/+1/---Min/172/+1/---Ana/191/0/

Career Year Players by Team (2004 prorated VORP 13 or more runs above career average VORP)
---------Breakout Year indicated in bold (Career Year with less than 3 QY----------

Team- Player/2004 prorated VORP-Career Average VORP

Boston- Damon/55.4-31.25, Ortiz/70.2-31.87, Varitek/53.4-25.55, *****Schilling/NO*****, Arroyo/15.2-(-7.75)

****Schilling is having a career year because his prorated VORP this season is 13 runs higher than his career average, but only because his first two years in the league, where his VORP was considerably less. If his first 2 years are taken out, he is still having a great year, just not a "career year"-and therefore was not awarded "career year" status. This case also applies to Gary Sheffield of the New York Yankees.****

New York- Matsui/56.3-30.9, Rivera/45.0-30.1, Gordon/36.8-22.08

Oakland- Duchsherer/31.7-NQY, Mulder/60.0-45.125, Harden/47.5-12.6, Hatteberg/49.4-22.7, Kotsay/43.9-21.68, Byrnes/41.0-25.1, Crosby/30.0-NQY, Durazo/62.0-36.1, Chavez/56.6-43.44, Scutaro/14.4-NQY, Miller/26.8-12.95

Minnesota- Ford/50.5-NQY, Nathan/36.8-14.23, Romero/30.4-7.5, Santana/81.2-27.67, Radke/58.4-40.24, Silva/31.9-13.85

Anaheim- Guillen/48.4-33, Figgins/29.2-NQY, Gregg/22.1-NQY, Escobar/47.6-19.86

Players over 35 VORP by Team (VORP is prorated)

Boston- Damon-55.44, Ortiz-70.2, Ramirez-73.68, Bellhorn-42.6, Varitek-53.4, Foulke-40.7, Schilling-68.8, Martinez-61.9

New York- Jeter-46.3, Rodriguez-64.0, Matsui-56.3, Sheffield-73.2, Posada-53.2, Rivera-45.0, Gordon-36.8, O. Hernandez-35.0

Oakland- Hudson-58.0, Mulder-60.0, Harden-47.5, Hatteberg-49.4, Kotsay-43.9, Byrnes-41.0, Durazo-62.0, Chavez-56.6

Minnesota- Ford-50.5, Stewart-35.7, Nathan-36.8, Radke-58.4, Santana-81.2

Anaheim- Guerrero-79.8, Guillen-48.4, Erstad-38.5, F. Rodriguez-38.9, Escobar-47.6

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total Similarity Points By Team
------------Point totals closest to zero indicates more similarity to AWSC. Negative point totals indicate that team is worse than AWSC. Positive point totals indicate team is better than AWSC.------------------

Boston- 18
New York- 1
Oakland- 10
Minnesota- (-9)
Anaheim- (-17)

According to this system, the team most similar to the AWSC is the New York Yankees. And because of this, the Yankees are my prediction to represent the American League in the World Series.

This prediction brought up a dilemma that I had not thought about before I had embarked on this project. The Boston Redsox and Oakland A's were the teams that really brought this dilemma to the forefront.

As you can see, Boston and Oakland are BETTER than the AWSC. So why don't I predict Boston, when they are clearly the best team? The answer to that question lied within the analysis itself.

If you look at the past 3 World Series Champions, you will see that all three of them (2001 Diamondbacks, 2002 Angels, and 2003 Marlins) were not the best team going into the playoffs, but they ended up the best team coming out.

So even though there are better teams than the Yankees (Redsox and A's), the Yankees are most similar to those "not-the-best-team-going-into-the-playoffs-but-won-the-World-Series-anyway" teams of the past three years.

So the decision is final, the New York Yankees are my prediction to represent the American League in the World Series.

As a final note. Please realize that this analysis is not perfect by any means (no analysis by anybody of anything ever is).

There are factors in every analysis that are not accounted for-but do effect the outcome. For this paticular analysis, I did not consider ballpark factors, or the fact that 2 of the last 3 World Series Champions came out of the National League, and I am sure there are many more. But the factors that I did use were plentiful, and meaningful, and I believe did help me make my best possible prediction.

So while debate will arise from this analyis, I am 100% sure that my prediction is backed in many ways by a number of solid factors.

And just think, this is only part 1. Part 2 (National League Analysis and Prediction) is upcoming.

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

World Series Prediction (Part 1)

It's about that time when people start choosing their World Series favorites, and start making predictions. Analyists and fans will be doing this throughout the world, and I am no different.

I am going to make my World Series Champion prediction in this article. I will also predict the two teams that will be playing in the World Series.

The way I am going to make my predictions are by comparing each team in the playoff hunt today, to the World Series Champions of the past three years (2001 Arizona Diamondbacks, 2002 Anaheim Angels, and the 2003 Florida Marlins).

Alot of research, and mathematics went into analyzing the past three champions. And through this analysis I figured out elements were present, on average, on each of those teams.

The first and second part of my analysis used VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) as their main comparitive statistic.

For the first part of my analysis I looked at each player, on each teams VORP, in the year in which their team won the World Series.

In order to qualify for the analysis a player had to post a positive VORP.

Then as a hitter, he would have to have +350 AB.

As a pitcher, he would have to had started at least 10 games, or appeared in 29 games.

These qualifications were strictly for qualifying for the analysis during the World Series year, but when I looked at these player's previous years, it did not matter whether they had posted a positive or negative VORP; but they still had to fulfill the AB, games started, or appearance qualifications.

When a player fulfilled those requirement, I called that year a "Qualifying Year" (QY), and when they didn't it was called a "Non-Qualifying Year (NQY).

Each players VORP is compared to their career average VORP in that players QY's.

Example: In 2003, Derrek Lee of the Florida Marlins posted a 51.7 VORP.

In his previous QY looked like this (year:VORP)-- 2002:49.4/2001: 33.4/ 2000:31.5/ 1999: (NQY)/1998: 5.9..... making his career average, before the World Series Championship year of 2003, 30.05.

So, the difference between Derrek Lee's World Serie's Year VORP (51.7), and his career average VORP (30.05), was 21.65. For my analysis, I considered 13 runs over a player's career average VORP, to be a "career year."

So, for this analyis, Derrek Lee had what I called a "career year." (Please note that the career years in this article are based on averages, so what I call a "career year" may not actually be a player's career year. For example, Randy Johnson of the 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks qualify's for a career year in this analysis with a 88.3 VORP--because it is 13 runs higher than his career average. But this is clearly not his career year, that was 1999....100.6 VORP)

Doing this "career year" analyis with each player, on each team, helped me figure out how many players had career years on the past three championship teams, on average.

But I encountered a problem--players with less than 3 QY. Can I really consider them having a career year, with not that much of a career to measure up against?

So for players with 3 or less QY, I just used the averages of previous years, albeit 1, 2, 3 or no years experience, and compared them just as I did for players with more than 3 QY. When a player had 13 or more runs than his previous career average VORP, I called this a "breakout year"--essentially the same as a "career year"--but with less statistics for comparison. So a rookie posting a 13 or higher VORP, qualified as having a "breakout year."

For the final count, a "breakout year" also qualifies as a "career year." But a "career year" wouldn't qualify as a "breakout year."

Here is each teams list of players with "career years," and "breakout years."

2003 Florida Marlins Career Years (difference between 2003 VORP and Career Average greater than, or equal to, 13 runs)
Juan Pierre - 38.5 VORP minus 23.33 Career Average
Derrek Lee - 51. VORP minus 30.05
Alex Gonzalez - 27.7 VORP minus 8.4
Mike Lowell - 52.0 VORP minus 38.17
Miguel Cabrera - 13.9 VORP minus NQY
Carl Pavano - 28.1 VORP minus 11.38
Dontrelle Willis - 40.6 VORP minus NQY
Mark Redman - 38.6 VORP minus 20.88
Josh Beckett - 35.8 VORP minus 9.8

------9 total career years, 5 offensive players, 4 pitchers.-------

2002 Anaheim Angels Career Years
Garrett Anderson - 50.1 VORP minus 25.96 Career Average
Adam Kennedy - 40.2 VORP minus 11.3
Brad Fullmer - 40.9 VORP minus 25.7
Scott Spiezio - 28.8 VORP minus 12.7
Ramon Ortiz - 47.5 VORP minus 19.9
Jarred Washburn - 61.9 VORP minus 21.65
John Lackey - 20.0 VORP minus NQY
Ben Weber - 26.8 VORP minus NQY
Brendan Donnelly - 20.0 minus NQY
Scot Shields - 19.5 minus NQY

-----10 total career years, 4 offensive players, 6 pitchers------

2001 Arizona Diamondbacks Career Years
Luis Gonzalez - 104.5 VORP minus 29.53 Career Average
Curt Schilling - 80.9 minus 42.85
Randy Johnson - 88.3 minus 51.0
Miguel Batista - 33.4 minus 11.65
Byung-Yun Kim - 31.3 minus 7.4
Brett Prinz - 13.5 minus NQY

-----6 total career years, 1 offensive players, 5 pitchers------

On average, the World Series championship team in the past three years had 8.33 players put up career years, 3.33 of those players being an offensive player, and 5 of those players being pitchers.

Now the list of "breakout years."

2003 Florida Marlins "Breakout Years" (difference between 2003 VORP and Career Average greater than, or equal to, 13 runs, but with less than 3 QY)
Juan Pierre - 38.5 VORP minus 23.33 Career Average
Alex Gonzalez - 27.7 VORP minus 8.4
Mike Lowell - 52.0 VORP minus 38.17
Miguel Cabrera - 13.9 VORP minus NQY
Dontrelle Willis - 40.6 VORP minus NQY
Mark Redman - 38.6 VORP minus 20.88
Josh Beckett - 35.8 VORP minus 9.8

------7 total breakout years, 4 offensive players, 3 pitchers.-------

2002 Anaheim Angels Breakout Years
Adam Kennedy - 40.2 VORP minus 11.3career average
Brad Fullmer - 40.9 VORP minus 25.7
Scott Spiezio - 28.8 VORP minus 12.7
Ramon Ortiz - 47.5 VORP minus 19.9
Jarred Washburn - 61.9 VORP minus 21.65
John Lackey - 20.0 VORP minus NQY
Ben Weber - 26.8 VORP minus NQY
Brendan Donnelly - 20.0 minus NQY
Scot Shields - 19.5 minus NQY

-----9 total breakout years, 3 offensive players, 6 pitchers------

2001 Arizona Diamondbacks Breakout Years
Miguel Batista - 33.4 minus 11.65 career average
Byung-Yun Kim - 31.3 minus 7.4
Brett Prinz - 13.5 minus NQY

-----3 total breakout years, 0 offensive players, 3 pitchers------

On average, the World Series championship team in the past three years had 6.33 players have breakout years, 2.33 of those players being an offensive player, and4 of those players being pitchers.

Looking at the "breakout", and "career years" on these teams, and figuring out the averages per team, completed the first step in the analysis.

The next step was seeing how many players on each team posted a +70, +60, +50, +40 and +35 VORP; to see how many of these players, on average,were on the typical World Series championship team the past three years.

***Note...Later in this article, when I will be using current statistics for current teams, like VORP, K, BB, HR, Hits, I will prorate these to make the comparisons more equal.***

Players over 35 VORP

Team Name (Number of Players over specified VORP)
2001 Diamondbacks (3)
Luis Gonzalez - 104.5
Curt Schilling - 80.9
Randy Johnson - 88.3

2002 Anaheim Angels (9)
Jarred Washburn - 61.9
Garrett Anderson - 50.1
Troy Glaus - 42.2
Tim Salmon - 41.4
Adam Kennedy - 40.2
Ramon Ortiz -47.5
Brad Fullmer - 40.9
David Eckstein - 37.8
Kevin Appier - 36.2

2003 Florida Marlins (8)
Derrek Lee - 51.7
Mike Lowell - 52.0
Ivan Rodriguez - 49.1
Dontrelle Willis - 40.6
Juan Pierre - 38.5
Luis Castillo - 39.0
Mark Redman - 38.6
Josh Beckett - 35.8

Players over 40 VORP
2001 Diamondbacks (3)
Luis Gonzalez - 104.5
Curt Schilling - 80.9
Randy Johnson - 88.3

2002 Anaheim Angels (7)
Jarred Washburn - 61.9
Garrett Anderson - 50.1
Troy Glaus - 42.2
Tim Salmon - 41.4
Adam Kennedy - 40.2
Ramon Ortiz -47.5
Brad Fullmer - 40.9

2003 Florida Marlins (4)
Derrek Lee - 51.7
Mike Lowell - 52.0
Ivan Rodriguez - 49.1
Dontrelle Willis - 40.6

Players Over 50 VORP
2001 Diamondbacks (3)
Luis Gonzalez - 104.5
Curt Schilling - 80.9
Randy Johnson - 88.3

2002 Anaheim Angels (2)
Jarred Washburn - 61.9
Garrett Anderson - 50.1

2003 Florida Marlins (2)
Derrek Lee - 51.7
Mike Lowell - 52.0

Players Over 60 VORP
2001 Diamondbacks (3)
Luis Gonzalez - 104.5
Curt Schilling - 80.9
Randy Johnson - 88.3

2002 Anaheim Angels (1)
Jarred Washburn - 61.9

2003 Florida Marlins (0)

Players Over 70 VORP
2001 Diamondbacks (3)
Luis Gonzalez - 104.5
Curt Schilling - 80.9
Randy Johnson - 88.3

2002 Anaheim Angels (0)

2003 Florida Marlins (0)

Based on those lists, I broke down how many of these players were on the average World Series Championship team in the past three years. This list breaks down as follows:

(Example, " +70 VORP : 1", means an average of 1 player, per team, on those 3 teams had a VORP over 70, so "+35 : 6.67" would mean an average of 6.67 players on those three teams, per team, posted a VORP over 35.)

Players per team by VORP

VORP : #of Players per team
+70 : 1
+60 : 1.33
+50 : 2.33
+40 : 4.67
+35 : 6.67

Broken down by pitchers and offensive players:

Pitcher per team by VORP
+70 : 0.67
+60 : 1
+50 : 1
+40 : 1.67
+35 : 2.67

Offensive players per team by VORP
+70 : 0.33
+60 : 0.33
+50 : 1.33
+40 : 3.00
+35 : 4.00

So now after these first two steps, I have determind that the average World Series Championship team, in the past three years, looked like so:

8.33 players posted a "career year"
3.33 Offensive players posted a "career year"
5 Pitchers posted a "career year"

6.33 players posted a "breakout year"
2.33 offensive players posted a "break out year"
4 Pitchers posted a "career year"

1 player posted a +70 VORP
1.33 players posted a +60 VORP
2.33 players posted a +50 VORP
4.67 players posted a +40 VORP
6.67 players posted a +35 VORP

0.67 pitchers posted a +70 VORP
1 pitcher posted a +60 VORP
1 pitcher posted a +50 VORP
1.67 pitchers posted a +40 VORP
2.67 pitchers posted a +35 VORP

0.33 offensive player posted a +70 VORP
0.33 offensive players posted a +60 VORP
1.33 offensive players posted a +50 VORP
3 offensive players posted a +40 VORP
4 offensive players posted a +35 VORP

Now, the last step of the analysis, "Team Stats." I looked at each of the three teams statistics, and averaged them out to see what the typical World Series Championship team in the past three years looked like.

The statistics I used were:

For offense - AVG, OBP, SLG, Hits, HR, K, BB, Extra Base Hits(XBH), Isolated Power (ISOP), Secondary Average (SECA), BB/K, and Runs.

For pitching - ERA, Batting Average Against (BAA), K/9, K/BB, Walks plus Hits per inning Pithced(WHIP), OBP, SLG, K, BB, and HR.

Average World Series Championship Team

Offensive Team Statistics

Batting Average - .272
OBP - .338
SLG - .432
Hits - 1519
HR - 172
K - 945
BB - 521
XBH - 512
ISOP - .160
SECA - .264
BB/K - .55
Runs - 807

Pitching Statistics

ERA - 3.87
BAA - .251
K/9 - 7.08
K/BB - 2.25
WHIP - 1.29
OBP - .315
SLG - .397
K - 1143
BB - 500
HR - 492

So that is what a World Series team looked like in the past three years.

In the next part of my analysis I will be looking at the current teams in the hunt for the playoffs in the American League. The teams I will be using are the New York Yankees, Boston Redsox, Minnesota Twins, Oakland A's, and Anaheim Angels.

(I'm sorry Rangers, Whitesox, and Indian Fans--I do not believe your teams have a legitimate shot to make the playoffs, but if they make a run to contention, I WILL DO ANOTHER SEGMENT OF THIS ARTICLE TO ACCOMODATE THEM.)

I will do a direct comparison of these playoff-chasing teams, to the average World Series teams of the past three years. That is what I will base my prediction on for the American League representative in the World Series.

Until Part 2,

Frank Bundy III

If you have questions, comments, concersn, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

Upcoming Article

To anybody who has looked to this website for new articles in the last week, and subsequently have not found any, I apologize. I am working on my upcoming article "World Series Prediction." I have been busy doing a statistical analysis of the past 3 World Series winners (2001 Arizona Diamondbacks, 2002 Anaheim Angels, and the 2003 Florida Marlins), and that is taking alot of time.

When I am done with the analysis, I am going to do more analysis of the current Major League teams in the hunt to make the playoffs in 2004, and see who is most comparable to the past 3 World Series winners. Then I will use these results to make a prediction on an eventual champion.

This article will have 2 to 3 parts. The first part may come later tonight.

I apologize for the wait.

Thank You

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me a frnkbndy@yahoo.com.