Serious Baseball

11/14/2004

Free-Agent Third Basemen

Now it's time to look at the 2004 crop of free-agent third basemen. There are not many, but there are some very good ones.

As always, free-agent's are ranked as to whom I believe is the best available.

Player's age for the 2005 season are in parenthesees next to their name.

1. Adrian Beltre (27): Signed with Mariners, 5 years ($64 million) 2004 Statistics- .334/.388/.629, 48 HR, 87/53 K/BB, 90.3 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics-.339/.393/.635, .330 EqA////Career batting line of .274/.332/.463--////Translated Career batting line of .286/.323/.449, .263 EqA////Terrible career K/BB of 3.20/1--////2004 represented career highs for Beltre in AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS, HR, VORP, and EqA////Spent entire 7-year career in Los Angeles (severe pitcher's park)////

2. Troy Glaus(28): Injured for much of 2003 and 2004, last full season was 2002; Signed with Diamondbacks, 4 years ($45 million) 2002 Statistics- .250/.352/.453, 30 HR, 144/88 K/BB, 42.2 VORP////2002 Translated Statistics-.256/.365/.474, .287 EqA////Injury-ridden 2004 statistics (207 AB)- .251/.355/.575, 18 HR, 52/31 K/BB, 21.1 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics (207 AB)- .258/.367/.598, .307 EqA//// Career batting line of .253/.357/.497--////Translated Career batting line of .254/.362/.511, .292 EqA////Very good career K/BB of 1.67/1--////Besides an AVG of .284 in 2000, Glaus's AVG in 2004 (.251) represented his career-high////In three of the four seasons in which Glaus has had more than 500 AB's (1999, 2000,'01, and 02'), he stole more than 10 bases (14 in 2000, and 10 in 01' and 02')////Spent entire 7-year career in Anaheim (slight pitcher's park)////

3. Corey Koskie (32): Signed with Bluejays, 3 years ($17 million) 2004 Statistics- .251/.342/.495, 25 HR, 49/12 K/BB, 25.7 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics-.251/.348/.506, .286 EqA////Career batting line of .280/.373/.463--////Translated Career batting line of .279/.377/.469, .289 EqA////Good career K/BB of 1.68/1--////Injured for part of 2004////In every season in which Koskie has accumulated 300+ AB's (99'-04'), his EqA has always been above .285////Recent trend in SLG% is going upward (02'-.447, 03'-.452, 04'-.495 )////Has only one season with 550+ AB's (2001), and in that season Koskie stole 27 bases and was only caught 6 times (82%)////Has stolen more than 9 bases in every season since 2001////Bad career SB/CS of 66/33 (67%)////Spent entire 7-year career in Minnesota (neutral park)////

4. Tony Batista(31): Signed in Japan, 2 years/$15 million 2004 Statistics- .241/.272/.455, 32 HR, 78/26 K/BB, (0.0) VORP////2004 Translated Statistics-.235/.269/.448, .243 EqA////Career batting line of .251/.298/.458--////Translated Career batting line of .251/.299/.465, .258 EqA////Bad career K/BB of 2.88/1--////As one can see by Batista's career numbers, he is terrible at getting on base (OBP), but very good at hitting for extra bases(SLG)////Stole 14 bases last year, which doubled his previous career high (7 in 1996), but was caught 6 times (20%)////Bad career SB/CS of 47/25 (65%)////Spent last four seasons of his career in Montreal (severe hitter's park), Baltimore (severe pitcher's park), and Toronto (moderate hitter's park)////

5. Joe Randa (35): Signed with Reds, 1 year ($2.15 million) 2004 Statistics- .287/.343/.408, 8 HR, 77/40 K/BB, 13.1 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics-.282/.346/.408, .263 EqA////Career batting line of .286/.341/.424--////Translated Career batting line of .279/.338/.420, .263 EqA////Good career K/BB of 1.71/1--////Homerun total in 2004 was half of total in 2003 (16)////Spent last six seasons of 10-year career in Kansas City (a severe hitter's park, until 2004 when fences were moved in and out, and it became a severe pitcher's park)////

6. Vinny Castilla (37): Signed with Washington (2 years-$6.2 million) 2004 Statistics- .271/.332/.535, 35 HR, 113/51 K/BB, 35.4 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics-.251/.315/.496, .271 EqA////Career batting line of .280/.324/.489--////Translated Career batting line of .257/.303/.455, .255 EqA////Not a very good career K/BB of 2.53/1--////Recent EqA trend going upward (02'-.220, 03'-.263, 04'-.271)////2004 represented a career high in K's for Castilla////The 2004 BB total for Castilla was only 2 BB's away from tying his career high in that category (53 in 99')////The 35 HR's Castilla hit in 2004 were the most he hit in his career since 1998 (46, also in Colorado)////Spent last four seasons of his career in four differents cities: Colorado (severe hitter's park), Atlanta (slight pitcher's park), Tampa Bay (neutral park), and Houston (moderate hitter's park)////Castilla's numbers outside of Coor's Field in Colorado = .250/.287/.404,--Castilla's numbers inside Coor's Field in Colorado = .295/.341/.529--////

7. Herbert Perry (35): 2002 was last season with 135+ AB, 2002 Statistics- .276/.333/.480, 22 HR, 66/34 K/BB, 26.9 VORP////2002 Translated Statistics-.271/.333/.487, .274 EqA////2004 Statistics (134 AB)- .224/.307/.366, 5 HR, 19/4 K/BB, (-1.2) VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .211/.302/.359, .234 EqA////Career batting line of .272/.335/.436--////Translated Career batting line of .269/.334/.440, .265 EqA////Bad career K/BB of 2.27/1--////Has had only 158 total AB's in the last two seasons////Beside 450 AB's in 2002, never has had more than 400 AB's during any season in career////Spent last four seasons in Texas (severe hitter's park), and Chicago Whitesox (slight hitter's park)////

8. Shane Halter (35): Only 46 games in 2004, Signed minor league contract with Devil Rays 2003 Statistics- .217/.269/.342, 12 HR, 77/27 K/BB, (-6.4) VORP////2003 Translated Statistics-.219/.278/.348, .219 EqA////Injury-ridden 2004 Statistics (114 AB's)- .202/.248/.351, 4 HR, 30/7 K/BB, (-4.1) VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- .206/.354/.355, .209 EqA////Career batting line of .246/.303/.385--////Translated Career batting line of .250/.311/.396, .245 EqA////Bad career K/BB of 2.84/1--////Recent EqA trend going down (02'-.252, 03'-.219, 04'-.209)////Spent last four seaons in Anaheim (slight pitcher's park), and Detroit (moderate pitcher's park)////

Notice that in this group, the two best-ranked free agents (Adrian Beltre, and Troy Glaus) are under 30 years of age--that does not happen very often.

Look for teams this winter to be bidding high on these two players, (especially Beltre, since he has no significant injury history like that of Troy Glaus).

Next up, free-agent left fielders.

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.




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