All the Fuss Over Carlos Beltran--Ballpark Adjusted (Edit)

You may have noticed that one of my previous articles, “All the Fuss Over Carlos Beltran-Ballpark Adjusted,” was pulled off the site yesterday. This was due to some errors I made in calculating the projected seasons for Beltran. It was pulled because I did not want an article containing false information on the site for any longer that it was. I apologize for the error, and have corrected it. The article you are reading is actually the correct version of “All the Fuss Over Carlos Beltran. Ballpark-Adjusted”

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If you recall, in my prior article “All the Fuss Over Carlos Beltran,” I used a “split-the-difference” method to project a “probable, split-the-difference, and best-possible” 2005 season for Carlos Beltran.

At the time of the article, Beltran was yet to be signed, and was still looking for a home. The Houston Astros, New York Yankees, and New York Mets were all reportedly close to signing the free agent.

Shortly after the publishing of the article Beltran signed a seven-year, $119 million contract with the New York Mets.

With this signing, Beltran’s new home ballpark becomes the very pitcher-friendly Shea Stadium in New York City. With this information, I can now project Beltran’s 2005 season, adjusted for Shea Stadium—something I was unable to do before.

If you recall, I had Beltran continuing his current upward trend into 2005.

As I did in the original article, I will not bore you with a step-by-step detailed explanation of how I calculated Beltran’s projected numbers, I will just present them.

***To read more about the seasons I project, and why I project them, please read earlier article “All the Fuss Over Carlos Beltran.”***

The first thing I must do before projecting ballpark-adjusted seasons though, is to ballpark-adjust Beltran’s previous three seasons (because those are the seasons used to determine the projections).

Here are Beltran’s previous three seasons, ballpark-adjusted:

Stats presented as so: AB, AVG/OBP/SLG-OPS, (AVG/HR/RBI), SB/CS, K/BB

2002 (Kansas City Royals—Kauffman Stadium): 617 AB--.253/.331/.446-.777 OPS--(.253/22/97)—35/7 (83.3%) SB/CS—135/71 (1.90/1) K/BB

2003 (Kansas City Royals—Kauffman Stadium): 514 AB--.295/.380/.506-.886 OPS--(.295/25/93)—41/4 (91.1%) SB/CS—81/72 (1.13/1) K/BB

2004 (Kansas City Royals—Kauffman Stadium, Houston Astros—Minute Maid Park): 602 AB--.268/.368/.511-.878 OPS--(.268/32/105)—42/3 (93.3%) SB/CS—101/92 (1.10/1) K/BB

If you recall, without park adjustments, 2004 was Beltran’s best season in the previous three seasons (according to OPS); and was the season used to project 2005 by splitting the differences between that season and his previous three year averages. When park factors are included though, 2003 becomes his best season in that span (according to OPS).

This being the case, Beltran’s projected 2005 season would normally be determined by the differences between that season (2003) and his previous three-year averages; but since he only had 521 AB’s in 03’, due to injury, I will still use 2004 as his best season in that span. I do this because 2004 is a better representation of a “best season,” because Beltran wasn’t injured, and had an AB total closer to his career average.

Here is the “probable, split-the-difference, and best-possible” seasons that I projected in the original article. Underneath each of them will be Beltran’s ballpark adjusted season of the same name.

Stats presented as so: AB, AVG/OBP/SLG-OPS, (AVG/HR/RBI), SB/CS, K/BB

Split the difference

2005: 606 AB--.260/.368/.559-.927 OPS--(.260/42/105)--43/2 (93.3%) SB/CS--99/99 (1.00/1) K/BB

2005 (Park Adjusted): 603 AB--.262/.361/.508--.869 OPS—(.262/33/104)—43/2 (95.5%) SB/CS—97/97 (1.00/1) K/BB


Best Possible

2005: 615 AB--.251/.369/.576-.944 OPS--(.251/46/105)--43/1 (97.7%) SB/CS--95/108 (.880/1) K/BB

2005 (Park Adjusted): 605 AB--.259/.365/.525--.890 OPS--(.259/36/105)—43/1 (97.7%) SB/CS—91/105 (.867/1) K/BB


Probable

2005: 610 AB--.256/.368/.568-.936 OPS--(.256/44/105)--43/2 (93.3%) SB/CS--97/104 (.933/1) K/BB

2005 (Park adjusted): 604 AB--.261/.363/.517--.880 OPS—(.261/34/105), 43/2 (93.3%) SB/CS, 94/101 (.931/1) K/BB


As you can see, in each season, Shea Stadium lowered Beltran’s statistics.

Large differentials between statistics in ballpark-neutral seasons, and ballpark-adjusted seasons are due to the fact that Beltran’s three previous seasons (02’, 03’, and 04’) were played in parks that favor hitters. Because of this, his actual statistics become lower when adjusted. Factor that in with his move to a ballpark (Shea Stadium) that heavily favors pitchers, and the difference between the “too-large” numbers he put up in the hitter’s parks, and the “too-small” numbers he would put up in a pitcher’s park becomes noticeably large—like in the cases above.

That being said, and hoping it wasn’t too confusing, the numbers put up by Beltran in 2005, should be expected to be along the lines of his ballpark-adjusted “probable” projected 2005 (as shown above).

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.