All the Fuss Over Carlos Beltran

Throughout this topsy-turvy off-season in 2004 there have been many trades and free agent signings. All of these though, will be paltry compared the signing of Carlos Beltran, the most sought-after free agent in 2004.

When this signing will happen, nobody knows. There are guesses that it will happen somewhere around January 8, 2004 because that is the last day that the Houston Astros (Beltran's former team) can resign him. Those are just guesses though.

There is no doubt though, that it will be a huge deal, worth a huge amount of money, when Beltran finally does sign.

Why is Carlos Beltran the most sought-after free agent? Why will he make the most money of all the free agents in 2004? Because teams project Beltran to have nothing but monster years in the future, and many of them. After all, he is only 27 years old--the age when most players, if capable, start their runs of dominance--and their statistics get better.

If this age theory does work out, and Beltran only gets better in the years to come, he would indeed be worth a very high salary.

Here are Beltran's statistics in every year of his career in which he accumulated 300+ AB's:

Stats presented as so: AB, AVG/OBP/SLG-OPS, (AVG/HR/RBI), SB/CS, K/BB

1999 KC- 663 AB--.297/.337/.454-.791--(.293/22/108)--27/8 SB/CS--123/46 K/BB

2000 KC- 372 AB--.247/.309/.366-.675--(.247/7/44)--10/0 SB/CS--69/35 K/BB

2001 KC- 617 AB--.306/.362/.514-.876--(.306/24/101)--31/1 SB/CS--120/52 K/BB

2002 KC- 637 AB--.273/.346/.501-.847--(.273/29/105)--35/7 SB/CS--135/71 K/BB

2003 KC- 521 AB--.307/.389/.522-.911--(.307/26/100)--46/4 SB/CS--81/72 K/BB

2004 KC/HOU- 599 AB--.267/.367/.548-.915--(.267/38/104)--42/3 SB/CS--101/92 K/BB

Career- 3467 AB, .284/.350/.490-.843--(.284/146/569)--192/23 (89.3%) SB/CS--641/371 (1.73/1) K/BB

As you can see, in terms of OPS, in the last three years Beltran is doing nothing but getting better.

The big question though, is "How will Beltran perform in 2005?" Well, obviously that question has no answer, all we can do is make projections as to what he'd do--and that is what I am here to do.

I will project Beltran's 2005 season using his statistics last season (his career-best according to OPS), and comparing them to his averages each of his past three seasons and "splitting the differences."

I will not bore anybody with the math involved in coming up with this "split the difference" season. I will just present the results.

Carlos Beltran (Split the difference)

2005: 606 AB--.260/.368/.559-.927 OPS--(.260/42/105)--43/2 (93.3%) SB/CS--99/99 (1.00/1) K/BB

That is a pretty awesome season, and shows that Beltran will, in fact, to continue to improve (according to OPS). If Beltran had that season for any team in 2005, I am sure the team would be more than happy to pay his enormous salary that year.

Since Beltran is only 27 though, it is entirely possible, as is for any player--but more so for a 27 year old--that he will not just have a "split the difference" season; he could have an ever better season than that.

With this possibility being ever so relevant for Beltran, I will project a 2005 season, not using the 50% difference I used in his "split the difference" season, but I will use a 120% difference (actually not a "difference" since it would be adding on to his stats) to project a "best-possible" season for Beltran in 2005.

Carlos Beltran (Best-possible)

2005: 615 AB--.251/.369/.576-.944 OPS--(.251/46/105)--43/1 (97.7%) SB/CS--95/108 (.880/1) K/BB

This season is even better than his "split the difference" season.

While this "best-possible" season is entirely possible, it is not probable. It is very probable though that Beltran WILL improve though. Since this is very probable I will now "split the difference" between Beltran's "split the difference" season, and his "best possible" season to come up with Beltran's "probable season."

Carlos Beltran (Probable)

2005: 610 AB, .256/.368/.568-.936 OPS--(.256/44/105)--43/2 (93.3%) SB/CS--97/104 (.933/1) K/BB

That, by the numbers, is a probable season for Carlos Beltran in 2005.

Is he worth the amount of money he potentially will make throughout his new contract ($200 million over 10 years)? No. The only reason he is not worth that amount of money though, is because, nobody, no matter how good they are, is worth $20 million a year.

Is he worth being paid the highest salary in baseball? That is debatable. He IS worth a salary that ranks among the highest in the league though--just look at the numbers.

All the fuss over Carlos Beltran is absolutely worth it. He is a young, talented player that has shown nothing but a great ability to play, and dominate, the game; and whose upside is still plentiful.

Thank you for reading,

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.