The Needs of the Many

Free agency brings with it the hope for every team that their problems and weaknesses from the previous season will be addressed. Hope springs eternal from Seattle to St. Louis, from Boston to LA. As is customary around this time of year, the informed and the casual alike begin speculating on who will sign where. I’ll take a crack at it today as well. Below is a listing of the ten most important free agents on the market and some raw unadulterated speculation about where they might just end up.

CF – Carlos Beltran (Yankees)

Yeah I know…it’s a bit obvious. He’s tops on everyone’s list…but a select few teams can actually afford him. Possible players include the Yankees, whose payroll just isn’t quite high enough for Steinbrenner unless it exceeds the GNP of at least fifty countries, the Phillies, desperately in need of an actual outfielder now that they’ve finally realized Abreu is a pathetic defensive outfielder and Pat Burrell may be the worst defender in the national league, the Astros, who will look rather bad if they can’t hang onto Beltran while they’re losing Jeff Kent as well, and the Angels now that they’ve dealt with Jose Guillen. I hate to do it…but I gotta go with the odds on this one. Yankee Stadium needs a new legend in Center.

3B – Adrian Beltre (Dodgers)

It seems to be a common conceit that the Dodgers will eventually win the bidding war for the services of Adrian Beltre, fresh off his 48 HR, 332 BA campaign in 2004. The one-time 25 year old phenom, and current all star will cost too much for 18 of the 30 teams, and only five stand out as even remote possibilities. The Red Sox have Kevin Youkilis and Billy Mueller, but neither are long-term solutions at third base and they Sox know it. If they can’t lock up Orlando Cabrera or Jason Varitek they may suddenly divert their attention to Beltre and make a deal for the other positions they can’t fill. The Phillies will get one big name. If they fall short on Beltran, third base is a hole for them as well, so Beltre is an option. The Astros are rumored to be frustrated with Morgan Ensberg…possibly enough to move him if they can’t resign Beltran, although I find that hard to believe. The Dodgers have the money, the hometown connection, and a gaping hole at third if they can’t convince Beltre to stay put. And finally, the Mariners, complete with twenty five million dollars to spend on free agents and a hole at third base that has never been filled through the entire history of the franchise. I almost picked the Mariners here…but I believe Seattle will commit its financial resources more evenly and can therefore probably not afford to sign any player who’ll be demanding 15 million a year.

Richie Sexson – 1B (Orioles)

This basically comes down to three questions…who needs a first baseman, who has money, and who is willing to take the risk that Sexson’s injured back won’t flare back up again? The teams that fit this bill: the Mariners, the Orioles, the Angels, and the Braves. Everyone else has a first baseman under contract or can’t afford Sexson. Although Sexson has expressed a desire to play for Seattle and Mariner management favors players with ties to the Pacific Northwest, the Mariners are favoring another first baseman. The nod therefore goes to Baltimore.

SS – Nomar Garciaparra (Angels)

Here’s where there are far more choices for destinations. There are a dozen teams with holes on their middle infield and money to spend to get one. Possibilities range from the Cardinals and Cubs to the Angels and Dodgers and several others. However, the most pressing need lies in Anaheim where the Angels are without Adam Kennedy for at least three months in 2005. It seems likely that David Eckstein will slide over to second base and the Angels will acquire an elite shortstop. Nomar fits the bill.

SP – Matt Clement (Blue Jays)

I expect many of you are surprised by this selection. We’ve heard almost nothing from the press about the likely destination of the only elite power pitcher on the market, but we do know that the Blue Jays have been looking for someone to serve as Halladay’s wingman for two years now. I’m going out on a limb and putting Clement in an unusual locale…call it a gut feeling.

SP – Pedro Martinez (Red Sox)

For all the talk about Pedro and Steinbrenner having contact and Boston looking elsewhere for their starting pitching…now is not the time for Boston to make major changes. Epstein will be working as hard as he can to hold his team together, and I believe that in the end, Pedro will stay put.

1B – Carlos Delgado (Mariners)

While the Mariners aren’t the only team who might have interest in the big bat of the aging Carlos Delgado, they are the only team who’ve been reported to have made Delgado their primary target. His left handed swing will fit in quite nicely at Safeco Field for at least a few more years before he begins his inevitable decline.

2B – Jeff Kent (Padres)

With a new stadium and a bourgeoning population of good young pitching prospects and outfielders, the Padres are looking to unload Ryan Klesko’s contract. If they succeed, which I feel is likely eventually, they’re going to come out in search of a middle infielder, some relievers, and maybe a corner infielder. I believe San Diego will get someone. And Kent prefers national league baseball, so it’s either here or Houston.

SP – Roger Clemens (Astros)

Refusing to let the sun set, Clemens had a banner year and notched a Cy Young award. Now he’s 99% certain he’s going to play for another season, and he feels no compelling reason to move. Houston will lock him up quickly and turn their attention to filling their vacant outfield positions and finding a second baseman to replace Kent.

SS – Edgar Renteria (Cubs)

It looks like a two team battle for Renteria’s services, the Cubs or the Cards. Although St. Louis has the “home field advantage” I fully expect the Cubs will have more resources than St. Louis, and this off-season, more than many others, will be about raising the bar on contracts as agents struggle to generate a market correction to halt the decline in the salaries of top end free agents. Home field will mean nothing in 2005.


Matthew Souders

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