The Needs of the Many....Part II

Continuing in my coverage of the swamp that is the game of musical chairs being played out this off-season amongst the 201 remaining free agents, today we’ll look at ten second tier free agents and my best educated guess about their final destinations. We’ll begin with a man who prior to last season’s injury would surely have been considered an elite free agent.

RF – Magglio Ordonez (Mets)

Ordonez will surely have a number of possible suitors…teams ranging from his hometown White Sox to the generally active Mariners to the Arizona Diamondbacks. In the end however, it’s going to come down to the Dodgers, the Mets, and the Astros in the opinion of this observer. Being that this is another Scott Boras special…I gotta go with the team most likely to have a lot of resources to commit. That’s New York.

SP – Carl Pavano (Yankees)

A young and previously unspectacular starter with the Marlins, Pavano had an apparent career year in 2004. In reality, his defense-independent pitching statistics didn’t change. He never has been, and never will be an elite starting pitcher. The only problem with that assessment is that it isn’t shared by baseball’s GMs. They’re convinced they’re getting a solid #2 starter and at least a dozen teams have already had conversations with his agent Adam Shapiro. With a likely bidding frenzy for his services, all of the rumors about Pavano ending up in small ports like Baltimore, Seattle, and St. Louis...not bloody likely. No, I suspect that when Steinbrenner falls short for Pedro, he’s coming after Pavano.

3B – Troy Glaus (Mariners)

If it weren’t for four injuries in three seasons…some minor, and some major…last year’s devastating shoulder problems that limited him to 57 games, Glaus would have been one of the top 2 or 3 free agents available in 2004. And he’d have probably been re-signed by the Angels. Instead they decided to get younger and go with prospect Dallas McPherson. Glaus is homeless, and not in high demand. The same five teams bidding for Adrian Beltre will be bidding for Glaus as a consolation prize. This time I believe the Mariners will be his final resting place. With the Dodgers the only other team on the west coast already satisfied with Beltre…and Glaus wanting to stay west of the Rockies…the Mariners have the upper hand and the money to get it done.

SS – Orlando Cabrera (Red Sox)

This could be quite the dogfight. The Cards, having probably lost out on Renteria, are going to come out looking for a shortstop…and most of the lesser ones will have already signed deals like those of Omar Vizquel and Christian Guzman. However, the Red Sox will be working hard to keep their ball club together, and Cabrera is an important part of that effort. In the end…Cabrera stays put.

RP - Armando Benitez (Cubs)

Go through the various teams in baseball one by one, like I did. Count off the number of them that are looking for a closer, AND have enough money lying around to sign the elite closer on the market. There’s only two that fit that bill…San Francisco and Chicago. I think the Cubbies will be the lucky winners of the effective but streaky Benitez; and his tendency to choke in big games…that just fits very well in a city that loves to choke when the pressure is on.

RF – JD Drew (Braves)

Drew’s agent may be Boras, but I get the distinct impression that he is committed to staying in Atlanta, and that even if he weren’t, his reputation for injuries, more injuries, and his salary demands…would hold down his options for right field assignments. The Braves also seem committed to resigning their right fielder, so I think it gets done…and it doesn’t take too long to get it done.

SP – Odalis Perez (Cardinals)

It is becoming abundantly clear that the Cards are unhappy with Matt Morris anchoring their pitching staff. Since Morris is likely to find a home elsewhere, they’ll need a solid #2 starter to eat innings and garner some wins. I believe Perez will come at a low enough price to make him the best fit in St. Louis. They will have some competition for his services; just about every major league team could use a starting pitcher and will set some money aside to sign one. For now though, this is where I think he’ll wind up.

C – Jason Varitek (Red Sox)

Continuing in their efforts to hold their nucleus together from the first successful group since 1918, the Red Sox will throw way more money at Varitek than he deserves. He has a well deserved reputation as a good game-caller, and team leader, but it’s hard to make a case for him being worth $11 million a year, which is what he’s currently asking for-and will probably get from the Sox. His high asking price almost guarantees that Boston is his home for another 3-5 years.

SP – Brad Radke (Mariners)

Radke continues to fly under the radar as teams focus on flashier commodities like Pavano and Clement. He will certainly have some bidders, and it’s doubtful he will make less money than he did in 2004 ($9 Million) after his great 2004 season. The "king" of control, and master of the K/BB ratio, will find a home at Safeco Field where his tendency to give up the long ball will be partially neutralized. He’s still got at least 5 more good years with his assortment of junk, making him the ideal successor to Jamie Moyer.

SP - Derek Lowe (Red Sox)

I know it’s not terribly original to predict that a Red Sox player will stay in Boston…but I firmly believe that Boston will hang onto what it has until better options present themselves, and right now, there aren’t better options that the Sox can afford than Derek Lowe. After his flashy performance in the post-season, Lowe will likely have potential buyers totally forgetting his two straight seasons of inconsistentcy, and overall below-average pitching; much like the White Sox forgot about Freddy Garcia’s control problems when they traded their entire farm system to the Mariners for him in July. The Sox will overpay to keep him and hope he can settle down and fulfill his promise for the first time since 2002.

Matthew Souders

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, suggestions specific to this article, please do not hesitate to email Matthew Souders at m_souders@yahoo.com.

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