Free-agent Right-Handed Starting Pitchers (#11-20)

Now a look at free-agent right-handed starting pitchers (RHSP), numbers 11 through 20 (according to my ranking).

As always, each free-agent is ranked according to whom I believe is the best available.

11. Jon Lieber (35): Signed with Phillies, 3 years ($21 million) 2004 Statistics- 4.33 ERA, 176.7 IP, 216 Hits, 20 HR, 18 BB, 102 K, 27.3 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 4.28 ERA, 10.3 H/9--.9 HR/9--.5 BB/9--4.9 K/9--////Career Statistics- 4.20 ERA, 1687.0 IP, 1819 Hits, 208 HR, 329 BB, 1223 K////Translated career statistics- 4.33 ERA, 9.4 H/9--1.0 HR/9--1.2 BB/9--5.8 K/9--////Career K/BB of 3.72/1--////Since Lieber was out of baseball in 2003 (Tommy John Surgery), there are no recent trends of his to identify////Was injured for part of 2004 season////Excluding 1995 season (only 72.7 IP), 2004 represented a career-worse for Lieber in translated H/9 (10.3), and tied a career-worst for translated K/9 (4.9)////2004 represented a career-best in BB (18), for seasons in which has had pitcher 150+ innings////Spent last four seasons in Chicago Cubs (slight pitcher’s park), and New York Yankees (slight pitcher’s park)////

12. Kevin Millwood (30): Signed with Indians, 1yr/$7 million 2004 Statistics- 4.85 ERA, 140.0 IP, 155 Hits, 14 HR, 51 BB, 125 K, 9.3 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 4.99 ERA, 9.9 H/9--.8 HR/9--2.9 BB/9--7.2 K/9--////Career Statistics- 3.89 ERA, 1367.3 IP, 1283 Hits, 138 HR, 422 BB, 1134 K////Translated career statistics- 4.15 ERA, 8.6 H/9--.9 HR/9--2.3 BB/9--6.4 K/9--////Career K/BB of 2.69/1--////Like Lieber, Millwood was also injured for part of the 2004 season////Excluding Millwood’s rookie season of 1997 (only 51.3 IP), 2004 represented a career-worst ERA (4.85), translated ERA (4.99), translated H/9 (9.9), and translated BB/9 (2.9)////Recent EqERA trend is getting worst (02-3.64, 03-4.32, 04-4.99), as well as his recent trends in translated BB/9 (02-2.2, 03-2.5, 04-2.9), translated H/9 (02-8.2, 03-8.6, 04-9.9), un-translated ERA (02-3.24, 03-4.01, 04-4.85)////Spent last four seasons in Philadelphia (moderate hitter's park), and Atlanta (slight pitcher’s park)////

13. Russ Ortiz (31): Signed with Arizona, 4 years ($33 million) 2004 Statistics- 4.13 ERA, 204.7 IP, 197 Hits, 23 HR, 112 BB, 143 K, 33.1 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 4.35 ERA, 8.6 H/9--1.0 HR/9--4.8 BB/9--5.3 K/9--////Career Statistics- 4.00 ERA, 1341.7 IP, 1223 Hits, 131 HR, 682 BB, 1004 K////Translated career statistics- 4.44 ERA, 8.2 H/9--.9 HR/9--4.4 BB/9--5.6 K/9--////Career K/BB of 1.47/1--//// Recent trend in ERA is getting worse (02-3.61, 03-3.81, 04-4.13), as well as Ortiz’s trends in HR allowed (02-15, 03-17, 04-23), BB (02-94, 03-102, 04-112), translated HR/9 (02-0.7, 03-0.8, 04-1.0), and translated BB/9 (02-3.6, 03-4.0, 04-4.8)////Has pitched 200+ innings each of the last four seasons////Spent last four seasons in San Francisco (severe pitcher’s park), and Atlanta (slight pitcher’s park)////

14. Woody Williams (38): Signed with Padres, 1 year($3.5 million) 2004 Statistics- 4.18 ERA, 189.7 IP, 193 Hits, 20 HR, 58 BB, 131 K, 28.5 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 4.52 ERA, 9.5 H/9--.9 HR/9--2.4 BB/9--5.6 K/9--////Career Statistics- 4.05 ERA, 1723.3 IP, 1675 Hits, 229 HR, 572 BB, 1201 K////Translated career statistics- 3.99 ERA, 8.7 H/9--1.1 HR/9--2.4 BB/9--5.8 K/9--////Career K/BB of 2.10/1--//// Even though Williams only pitched 103.3 inning in 2002, it is note-worthy that his recent trends in ERA (02-2.53, 03-3.87, 04-4.18), EqERA (02-2.78, 03-4.18, 04-4.52), translated H/9 (02-7.8, 03-9.1, 04-9.5), translated BB/9 (02-1.7, 03-1.8, 04-2.4), and translated K/9 (02-5.9, 03-5.7, 04-5.6) are all getting worse each year////Has spent last four seasons in St. Louis (moderate pitcher’s park), and San Diego (severe pitcher’s park)////

15. Corey Lidle (33): Signed with Philadelphia (2 years-$6.3 million) 2004 Statistics- 4.90 ERA, 211.1 IP, 224 Hits, 27 HR, 61 BB, 126 K, 12.3 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 4.95 ERA, 9.3 H/9--1.0 HR/9--2.2 BB/9--4.8 K/9--////Career Statistics- 4.52 ERA, 967.3 IP, 1009 Hits, 111 HR, 258 BB, 587 K////Translated career statistics- 4.58 ERA, 9.1 H/9--.9 HR/9--2.0 BB/9--5.0 K/9--////Career K/BB of 2.27/1--////2004 represented a career-worst for Lilly in Hits allowed (224), HR allowed (27), BB (61), and a tie for his career-worst K/9 (4.8-2002)////Lilly’s recent trends in Hits allowed (02-191, 03-216, 04-224), BB (02-39, 03-60, 04-61), and HR allowed (02-17, 03-24, 04-27) have all gotten worse each year////Lilly’s recent trend in total K’s (02-111, 03-112, 04-126) has gotten better each year—although, his IP has risen each year in the same period (02-192, 03-192.7, 04-211.1)////Has spent last four season’s in Philadelphia (moderate hitter's park), Cincinnati (neutral), Toronto moderate hitter's park) and Oakland (neutral park)////

16. Derek Lowe (32): Signed with Dodgers, 4 yrs/$36 million 2004 Statistics- 5.42 ERA, 182.7 IP, 224 Hits, 15 HR, 71 BB, 105 K, (-11.5) VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 5.74 ERA, 10.1 H/9--.6 HR/9--3.2 BB/9--4.8 K/9--////Career Statistics- 3.88 ERA, 1090.0 IP, 1083 Hits, 80 HR, 332 BB, 712 K////Translated career statistics- 3.85 ERA, 8.5 H/9--.6 HR/9--2.3 BB/9--5.6 K/9--////Career K/BB of 2.14/1--////Lowe’s EqERA (translated ERA) has gotten worse each of the last three seasons (02’-2.57, 03’-4.48, 04’-5.74), at the same time, Lowe’s translated H/9 (02’-6.9, 03’-8.9, 04’-10.1), translated BB/9 (02’-1.6, 03’-3.1, 04’-3.2), un-translated ERA (02’-2.58, 03’-4.47, 04’-5.42), total hits allowed (02’-166, 03’-216, 04’-224), and K’s (02’127, 03’-110, 04’-105) have also gotten worse////Lowe has pitched less innings in each of the last three seasons (02’-219.7, 03’-203.3, 04’-182.7)////2004 represented a career-worst ERA (5.42) for Lowe in seasons in which he has pitched 100+ innings////2004 also represented a career-worst for Lowe in Hits allowed (224), translated ERA (EqERA- 5.74), translated H/9 (10.1) and translated BB/9 (3.2)////Spent last four seasons in Boston (slight hitter’s park)////

17. Aaron Sele (35): Signed minor league contract with Mariners 2004 Statistics- 5.05 ERA, 132.0 IP, 163 Hits, 16 HR, 51 BB, 51 K, 7.4 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 4.99 ERA, 10.5 H/9--.9 HR/9--3.0 BB/9--3.5 K/9--////Career Statistics- 4.52 ERA, 1880.0 IP, 2068 Hits, 191 HR, 706 BB, 1268 K////Translated career statistics- 4.30 ERA, 9.6 H/9--.8 HR/9--2.7 BB/9--6.2 K/9--////Career K/BB of 1.80/1--////2004 represented a career-low for K’s (51) in any season in which Sele has pitched 100+ innings////2004 also represented a career-low translated K/9 (3.5) for Sele)////Each of the last three seasons, Sele’s translated K/9 (02’-4.4, 03’-3.9, 04’-3.5), and total K’s (02’-82, 03’-53, 04’-51) have dropped////Spent last four seasons in Anaheim (slight pitcher’s park), and Seattle (severe pitcher’s park)////

18. Paul Byrd (34): Signed with Angels, 1 year ($5 million) 2004 Statistics- 3.94 ERA, 114.3 IP, 123 Hits, 18 HR, 19 BB, 79 K, 16.2 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 4.50 ERA, 9.7 H/9--1.4 HR/9--1.1 BB/9--5.2 K/9--////Career Statistics- 4.33 ERA, 907.3 IP, 919 Hits, 137 HR, 262 BB, 552 K////Translated career statistics- 4.51 ERA, 8.8 H/9--1.3 HR/9--2.2 BB/9--4.7 K/9--////Career K/BB of 2.11/1--////Since Byrd was out of baseball in 2003 (Tommy John surgery), there are no trends of his to identify////Byrd has pitched 200+ innings only once in his career (228.3-2002), and the following season needed Tommy John surgery to repair his pitching arm////Spent last four seasons in Atlanta (slight pitcher’s park), KC (a severe hitter’s park when he pitched there), and Philadelphia (moderate hitter’s park)////

19. Brett Tomko (32): Option picked-up by San Francisco 2004 Statistics- 4.04 ERA, 194.0 IP, 196 Hits, 19 HR, 64 BB, 108 K, 26.2 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 4.43 ERA, 8.8 H/9--.8 HR/9--2.7 BB/9--4.2 K/9--////Career Statistics- 4.53 ERA, 1236.7 IP, 1273 Hits, 173 HR, 407 BB, 818 K////Translated career statistics- 4.75 ERA, 9.2 H/9--1.2 HR/9--2.6 BB/9--5.1 K/9--////Career K/BB of 2.01/1--////2004 represented a career-best total Hits allowed (196) for Tomko in seasons which he has pitched at least 150 innings; under those same circumstances though, 2004 also represented a career-low for K’s (108)//// 2004 represented a career-best in translated HR/9 (.8) for Tomko; while also representing a career-low translated K/9 (4.2)////Tomko’s total in K’s (02’-126, 03’-114, 04’-108), and ratios in translated K/9 (02’-4.6, 03’-4.3, 04’-4.2) have gotten worse each of the past three seasons////Also, in each of the last three seasons, Tomko has pitched less innings (02’-204.3, 03’-202.7, 04’-194.0) ////Has spent last four seasons in four different cities: San Francisco (severe pitcher’s park), Seattle (severe pitcher’s park), SD (severe pitcher’s park), and St. Louis (moderate pitcher’s park)—Man, did he choose the right cities to pitching in, all 3 out of 4 are severe pitcher’s parks, and the other is a moderate pitcher’s park////

20. Esteban Loaiza (33): Signed with Nationals, 1 yr/$2.9 million 2004 Statistics- 5.70 ERA, 183.0 IP, 217 Hits, 32 HR, 71 BB, 117 K, 2.8 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 5.24 ERA, 10.1 H/9--1.3 HR/9--3.0 BB/9--5.5 K/9--////Career Statistics- 4.70 ERA, 1663.0 IP, 1883 Hits, 210 HR, 484 BB, 1082 K////Translated career statistics- 4.49 ERA, 9.7 H/9--1.0 HR/9--2.1 BB/9--5.6 K/9--////Career K/BB of 3.72/1--////In each of the last three seasons Loaiza’s BB totals (02’-38, 03’-56, 04’-71), Hits allowed totals (02’-192, 03’-196, 04’-217), and translated BB/9 (02’-1.9, 03’-2.0, 04’-3.0) have all gotten worse////2004 represented a career-worst for Loaiza in HR allowed (32), and translated BB/9 (3.0)////Spent last four seasons in New York Yankees (slight pitcher’s park), Chicago White Sox (slight hitter’s park), and Toronto (moderate hitter’s park)////

Next, I finish the scouting reports for RHSP, with numbers 21-32.

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

A's/Pirates Trade

On November 27, 2004 a trade between the Oakland A's and the Pittsburgh Pirates was announced. In the trade the Oakland A's sent SP Mark Redman, and RP Arthur Rhodes, to Pittsburgh for C Jason Kendall. The trade actually took place on Wednesday, November 24, 2004, but wasn't announced until today so all the involved players could pass a physical.

In Kendall the A's receive a catcher whose translated career, and 2004 statistics look like so:

2004- .321/.400/.394, .280 EqA (Untranslated totals= 3 HR, 41/60 K/BB)

Career- .303/.383/.417, .281 EqA (Untranslated K/BB= 454/403 (1.13/1))

The A's are without a doubt getting an elite catcher (How can you argue with a career translated OBP of .383--for a catcher!!!!), who has remained pretty steady throughout his career--he's only had one year with a sub-.280 AVG, and one year with a sub-.350 OBP.

On the other end of the trade the Pirates are receiving SP Mark Redman, and RP Arthur Rhodes.

Rhode's and Redman's translated career and 2004 statistics:

Redman: 2004-4.62 ERA, 10.0 H/9, 1.1 HR/9, 2.8 BB/9, 4.7 K/9

Career- 4.20 ERA, 9.2 H/9, .9 HR/9, 2.3 BB/9, 5.7 K/9

Rhodes: 2004-4.85 ERA, 10.1 H/9, 1.9 HR/9, 4.9 BB/9, 7.0 K/9

Career- 4.16 ERA, 7.9 H/9, 1.0 HR/9, 3.5 BB/9, 8.7 K/9

The Pirates are getting two pitchers who are better than average in their career (using a 4.50 EqERA as "average"), but are coming off below-average seasons.

Throughout their careers both Rhodes and Redman have been very inconsitent; and at Rhode's age (35 in 2005), I wouldn't expect any repeat performances of his 2001 (1.72 ERA in 68.0 IP) or 2002 (2.33 ERA in 69.7 IP) seasons.

As for Redman, he is still young enough (31 in 2005) to possibly have a repeat of his 2003 season (3.59 ERA in 190.7 IP); but looking at the inconsistency throughout his career, it is not a safe bet.

So, in the end, one must ask, "Why did the Pirates trade away an elite catcher for two inconsitent pitchers?"

The answer to that question is the same every time, when it comes to trades: "Saving Money."

Here are the financial numbers:

Kendall will make $9.5 million in 2005.

Redman will make $4.25 in 2005, and Rhodes will make $3.07 million. The two will combine to make $7.32 million in 2005.

There is a differnce of $2.18 million in contracts, of which I've read nothing about Pittsburgh paying in 2005. But what I have read is:

"According to several reports, the A's will send Pittsburgh $1 million in each of the next two seasons, and the Pirates will send Oakland $5 million in 2007, when Kendall is scheduled to make $13 million."

-Mychael Urban at MLB.com

According to my figures (which are slightly different from Urban's) Redman and Rhodes are scheduled to make a combined $15.34 million in 2005 and 2006, and Kendall is due to make $20 million in that same period.

Subtract the $15.34 million from $20 million, and the difference is $4.66 million added to Oaklands payroll. Next, add the $1 million that the A's are going to send Pittsburgh in 05', and 06' ($2 million total), and the sum is $6.66 million dollars added to Oakland's payroll in 05' and 06'.

In 2005 and 06' Oakland will end up paying $3.33 million dollars per year for Kendall's services.

Then, finally, since the Pirates will send Oakland $5 million in 2007, you must subtract that from the $6.66 million to come up with a $1.66 million dollars added to Oakland's payroll through 05', 06', and 07'.

In 2007 though, Oakland will be due to pay the difference in Kendall's $12.5 million dollar salary, minus the $5 million Pittsburgh will send them, of $7.5 million, if they want to keep him. My guess is that he will be traded by then.

I see this trade as a way for Pittsburgh to save a massive amount of money. In 2007 (the year after Rhode's and Redman's contracts run out) the $17 million they would owe Kendall in 07', and 08' will be off their hands. They can use that money to sign, or resign, better, younger players.

After crunching all of these numbers, I believe Oakland will get the best of this deal. For the next two seasons, Oakland will only have to pay $3.33 million a year for Kendall, and in the end they will only be adding $1.66 dollars to their payroll. That is a great deal in the end--only adding $1.66 million to your payroll for two years of Jason Kendall.

After 2006 though, the Pirates will have alot of free money ($17 million) because of this trade; something coveted by every team in Major League Baseball.

I give the edge to Oakland though because of how good Kendall is, and the price they are paying for him. For the next two years, Oakland has a legitimate star behind the plate--one of the hardest position to find stars in.

Please note that my prediction does not include any references to how farmhands on Oakland, such as Joe Blanton and Huston Street, will perform when called up to replace Redman and Rhodes.

Not using farm systems, or predicting future performances of farmhands, this trade will favor Oakland.

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concersn, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

Free-Agent Right-Handed Starting Pitchers (#1-10)

*****Edit (11/27/2004-10:11 AM)--I've tweaked the system I use to rank these free-agents a little bit, resulting in some minor changes in the rankings. The top ten remained the same, the order is just a little different throughout the bottom five. The list that appears in this artilce is edited, and is the proper order, according to my rankings.****

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Now, a look at the top ten free-agent right-handed starting pitchers (RHSP).

Pitcher's scouting reports are read the same way as the positions player's were, there are just different statistics.

Just like the translated statistics for the position players, the translated statistics for pitchers are presented in the scouting reports.

All translations are courtesy of Baseball Prospectus, and are done by Clay Davenport.

Again, translated statistics are player's numbers adjusted for ballpark factors, quality of competition (hitting), and league pitching level.

Remember, these are only the first ten RHSP according to my rankings as to whom I believe is the best available.

There are twenty-two more free-agents RHSP. Numbers 11-20 will be presented in my next article, and 21-32 will be in the third and final article on right-handers.

1. Pedro Martinez (33): Signed With Mets, 4 years (53 million) 2004 Statistics- 3.90 ERA, 217 IP, 193 Hits, 26 HR, 61 BB, 217 K, 51.2 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 3.69 ERA, 7.7 H/9--.9 HR/9--2.1 BB/9--8.7 K/9--////Career Statistics- 2.71 ERA, 2296 IP, 1746 Hits, 175 HR, 615 BB, 2653 K--////Translated Career Statistics- 2.80 ERA, 6.8 H/9--.7 HR/9--2 BB/9--9.8 K/9--////Career K/BB of 4.31/1--////2004 represented a career-worse ERA (3.90) and translated ERA (3.69) for Martinez, as well as a tie for a career-worst in HR allowed (26), and a career-worst Hits allowed (193)////2004 was the first season since 2000 with 200+ IP for Martinez////Each of the last three seasons, Martinez's BB totals have gone up (02'-40, 03'-47, 04'-61), as have his number of Hits allowed (02'-144, 03'-147, 04'-193) ////Has spent last four seasons in Boston (slight hitter's park)////

2. Roger Clemens (42): Signed with Astros, 1 year/$18 million 2004 Statistics- 2.98 ERA, 214.3 IP, 169 Hits, 15 HR, 79 BB, 218 K, 61.3 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 3.04 ERA, 6.9 H/9--.6 HR/9--2.9 BB/9--8.2 K/9--////Career Statistics- 3.18 ERA, 4493 IP, 3846 Hits, 336 HR, 1458 BB, 4317 K--////Translated Career Statistics- 3.04 ERA, 6.9 H/9--.6 HR/9--2.9 BB/9--8.2 K/9--////Career K/BB of 2.96/1--////Recent EqERA trend is getting better (02'-4.39, 03'-3.88, 04'-3.04)////Clemen's translated H/9 have gotten better each of the last three seasons (02'-8.4, 03'-8.1, 04'-6.9), while his IP have gone up each of the last 3 seasons (02'-180.0, 03'-211.7, 04'-214.3)////Has spent last four seasons in Houston (moderate hitter's park), and New York Yankees (slight pitcher's park)////

3. Carl Pavano (29): Signed with Yankees, 4 years (38 million) 2004 Statistics- 3.00 ERA, 222.3 IP, 212 Hits, 13 HR, 49 BB, 139 K, 62.4 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 3.19 ERA, 8.7 H/9--.6 HR/9--1.6 BB/9--5.2 K/9--////Career Statistics- 4.21 ERA, 937.7 IP, 985 Hits, 95 HR, 271 BB, 617 K--////Translated Career Statistics- 4.27 ERA, 9.3 H/9--.8 HR/9--2.1 BB/9--5.3 K/9--////Career K/BB of 2.28/1--////Only in 2004 and 2003 has Pavano amassed more than 200 IP in a season////2004 represents a career-best ERA (3.00), translated ERA (3.19), translated BB/9 (1.6), and K's (139)////2004 also represented a career-worst IP (222.3), Hits allowed (212-because of more innings pitched), and a tie for his career-worst BB (49)////Recent EqERA trend is getting better (02'-6.09, 03'-4.31, 04'-3.19)////Has spent last four seasons in Florida (severe pitcher's park), and Montreal (severe hitter's park)////

4. Brad Radke (32): Signed with Twins, 2 years ($18 million) 2004 Statistics- 3.48 ERA, 219.7 IP, 229 Hits, 23 HR, 26 BB, 143 K, 60.1 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 3.35 ERA, 8.9 H/9--.8 HR/9--.6 BB/9--5.5 K/9--////Career Statistics- 4.23 ERA, 2088.0 IP, 2232 Hits, 269 HR, 390 BB, 1267 K--////Translated Career Statistics- 3.84 ERA, 9.2 H/9--1.0 HR/9--1.0 BB/9--5.4 K/9--////Career K/BB of 3.25/1--////Recent EqERA trend is getting better (02'-4.56, 03'-4.32, 04'-3.35)////Excluding Radke's injury-shortened 2002 season, 2004 represented a tie for his career-best BB (26), and a career best HR allowed (23)////2004 also represented a career-best ERA (3.48) for Radke////Has spent entire 10-year career in Minnesota (neutral park)////

5. Jaret Wright (29): Signed with Yankees, 3 years ($21 million) 2004 Statistics- 3.28 ERA, 186.3 IP, 168 Hits, 11 HR, 70 BB, 159 K, 40.3 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 3.84 ERA, 8.3 H/9--.5 HR/9--3.0 BB/9--6.8 K/9--////Career Statistics- 5.09 ERA, 758.3 IP, 796 Hits, 80 HR, 369 BB, 569 K--////Translated Career Statistics- 4.76 ERA, 9.0 H/9--.8 HR/9--3.8 BB/9--6.5 K/9--////Career K/BB of 1.54/1--//// 2004 represented a career-best ERA (3.28), a career-high K total (159), and a career-best translated HR/9 (.5) for Wright////Spent parts of the last 6 seasons, before 2004, rehabilitating from injury, or in the minors////Spent last four seasons in Atlanta (slight pitcher's park), San Diego (severe pitcher's park), and Cleveland (neutral park)////

6. Orlando Hernandez (35): Signed with White Sox, 2 years ($8 million) 2004 Statistics- 3.30 ERA, 84.7 IP, 73 Hits, 9 HR, 36 BB, 84 K, 27.6 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 3.07 ERA, 7.4 H/9--.9 HR/9--3.6 BB/9--8.0 K/9--////Career Statistics- 3.96 ERA, 876.3 IP, 781 Hits, 114 HR, 304 BB, 703 K--////Translated Career Statistics- 3.78 ERA, 7.7 H/9--1.0 HR/9--2.6 BB/9--6.8 K/9--////Career K/BB of 2.31/1--////Since Hernandez didn't start pitching (because of injury) until after the All-Star break, naturally 2004 represented career-bests for Hernandez in Hits allowed (73), HR allowed (9), and tied a career-best for BB allowed (36), translated H/9 (7.4), translated HR/9 (.9), and K/9 (8.0)////A tired arm kept Hernandez sidelined for much of the last month of the season in 2004////Has only pitched 200+ innings once in his career (214.3, 1999-NY Yankees)////Since Hernandez was out of baseball in 2003 (arm injury) there are no identifiable trends to notice of his////Spent entire six-year career in New York Yankees (slight pitcher's park)////


7. Matt Morris (30): Signed with Cardinals, 1 year ($2.5 million) 2004 Statistics- 4.72 ERA, 202.0 IP, 205 Hits, 35 HR, 56 BB, 131 K, 13.4 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 5.24 ERA, 9.3 H/9--1.4 HR/9--2.2 BB/9--5.0 K/9--////Career Statistics- 3.53 ERA, 1184.7 IP, 1159 Hits, 107 HR, 341 BB, 869 K--////Translated Career Statistics- 3.92 ERA, 9.0 H/9--.8 HR/9--2.2 BB/9--5.7 K/9--////Career K/BB of 2.55/1--////2004 represented a career-worst for Morris in ERA (4.72), HR allowed (35), translated ERA (5.24), translated HR/9 (1.4), and, excluding 2000 (only 54.0 IP), a career-worst K/9 (5.0)////Recent EqERA trend is getting worse (02'-3.87, 03'-4.07, 04'-5.24)////Other recent downward trends (last 3 seasons) for Morris include: translated K/9 (02'-6.4, 03'-5.5, 04'-5.0), translated HR/9 (02'-0.7, 03'-1.0, 04'-1.4), total HR allowed (02'-16, 03'-20, 04'-35), and untranslated ERA (02'-3.42, 03'-3.76, 04'-4.72)////Has spent entire seven-year career in St. Louis (moderate pitcher's park)////

8. Kris Benson (30): Signed with NY Mets (3 years, $22.5 million)2004 Statistics- 4.31 ERA, 200.1 IP, 202 Hits, 15 HR, 61 BB, 134 K, 22.4 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 4.46 ERA, 8.9 H/9--.6 HR/9--2.3 BB/9--5.3 K/9--////Career Statistics- 4.28 ERA, 850.0 IP, 871 Hits, 87 HR, 316 BB, 604 K--////Translated Career Statistics- 4.47 ERA, 9.0 H/9--.8 HR/9--2.8 BB/9--5.7 K/9--////Career K/BB of 1.91/1--////2004 represented a career best translated BB/9 (2.3) for Benson////2004 was one of only two seasons in which Benson has amassed 200+ IP (217.7, 1999-Pittsburgh)////Spent last four seasons in New York Mets (severe pitcher's park), and Pittsburgh (neutral park)

9. Chris Carpenter (30): Option picked up by Cardinals 2004 Statistics- 3.46 ERA, 182.0 IP, 169 Hits, 24 HR, 38 BB, 152 K, 41.6 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 3.77 ERA, 8.8 H/9--1.1 HR/9--1.4 BB/9--6.9 K/9--////Career Statistics- 4.59 ERA, 1052.7 IP, 1153 Hits, 135 HR, 369 BB, 764 K--////Translated Career Statistics- 4.41 ERA, 9.4 H/9--1.0 HR/9--2.6 BB/9--6.3 K/9--////Career K/BB of 2.07/1--////Excluding season's in which Carpenter did not throw 150+ innings, 2004 represented a career-best ERA (3.46), Hits allowed (169), BB (38), translated ERA (3.77), translated BB/9 (1.4), and tied a career-best with 6.9 translated K/9--////Like Hernandez, since Carpenter was out of baseball in 2003 (arm injury), there are no trends to indentify////Spent last four seasons in Toronto (moderate hitter's park), and St. Louis (moderate pitcher's park)////

10. Matt Clement (30): Signed with Red Sox, 3 years (25 million) 2004 Statistics- 3.68 ERA, 181.0 IP, 155 Hits, 23 HR, 77 BB, 190 K, 36.9 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 3.85 ERA, 7.4 H/9—1.1 HR/9—3.7 BB/9—7.7 K/9--////Career Statistics- 4.34 ERA, 1156.3 IP, 1057 Hits, 118 HR, 544 BB, 1028 K--////Translated Career Statistics- 4.63 ERA, 8.0 H/9--.9 HR/9—4.0 BB/9—6.6 K/9--////Career K/BB of 1.82/1--////Excluding his rookie season of 1998 (only 13.7 IP), 2004 represented a career-best total in Hits Allowed (155), and BB (77) for Clement////2004 also represented a career-worst for Clement in HR allowed (23),and translated HR/9 (1.1)//// Spent last four seasons in Chicago Cubs (slight pitcher's park), and Florida (severe pitcher’s park)////

Next up, #11-20 free-agent RHSP.

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

Free-Agent Right Fielders

Welcome back.

Now we take a look at the 2004 free-agent right fielders, which is a great list of players.

The one thing you will notice while looking through the scouting reports, is that an above-average amount of the players on the list have been injured recently, or have been "injury cases" for much of their careers.

Those injuries were factored in my ranking of whom I believe is the best available.

Each player's rank is next to thier name.

1. J.D. Drew (29): Signed with Dodgers, 5 years ($55 million) 2004 Statistics: .287/.391/.513, 31 HR, 116/118 K/BB, 12/3 SB/CS, 78.7 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics: .306/.436/.574, .335 EqA////Career batting line of .287/.391/.513--////Translated career batting line of .287/.388/.514, .304 EqA////Very good career K/BB of1.36/1--////Due to many injuries throughout his seven-year career, 2004 was Drew's first season with 500+ AB's////Excluding Drew's rookie year in 1998, where he had only 36 AB, 2004 represented a career high for him in HR, OBP, Translated OBP, and EqA////Recent EqA trend going up (02'-.277, 03'-.300, 04'-.335)////Decent base-stealer, his career SB/CS is 71/22 (76.3 %)////Spent last four seasons in St. Louis (moderate pitcher's park), and Atlanta (slight pitcher's park)////

2. Magglio Ordonez (31): Signed with Tigers, 5 years/$75 million 2004 Statistics (202 AB)- .292/.351/.485, 9 HR, 22/16 K/BB, 11.8 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics: .292/.354/.490, .282 EqA////Career batting line of .307/.364/.525--////Translated career batting line of .307/.365/.537, .299 EqA////Excellent career K/BB of 1.29/1--////2003 Statistics (Last full season): .317/.380/.546, 29 HR, 73/57 K/BB, 63.2 VORP////Translated 2003 Statistics: .317/.385/.558, .309 EqA////Knee Injury in July ended Ordonez's 2004 season early////Has spent his entire eight-year career in Chicago White Sox (slight hitter's park)////

3. Ben Grieve (29): Signed minor league contract with Pirates 2004 Statistics (250 AB): .260/.361/.424, 8 HR, 70/39 K/BB, 12.5 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics: .260/.357/.417, .272 EqA////Career batting line of .269/.367/.443--////Translated career batting line of .272/.372/.457, .287 EqA////Good career K/BB of1.68/1--////2002 Statistics (Last season with 450+ AB): .251/.353/.432, 19 HR, 121/69 K/BB, 19.5 VORP////Translated 2002 Statistics: .256/.363/.447, .281 EqA////Injuries limited Grieve to 250 AB's last year////Spent last 4 season in Milwaukee (neutral park), Chicago Cub's (slight pitcher's park), and Tampa Bay (neutral park)////

4. Richard Hidalgo (29): Signed with Texas, 1 year ($5 million) 2004 Statistics: .239/.301/.444, 25 HR, 129/44 K/BB, 10.0 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics: .240/.302/.444, .252 EqA////Career batting line of .273/.350/.497--////Translated career batting line of .269/.345/.489, .280 EqA////Career K/BB of2.00/1--////Seemed to regain his power after midseason trade to New York Mets, 21 HR in NY as opposed to 4 in HOU, .463 SLG in NY, vs. a .412 SLG in HOU////Spent last four seasons in NY Mets (severe pitcher's park), and Houston (severe hitter's park)////

5. Jermaine Dye (31): Signed with White Sox, 2 years ($10.5 million) 2004 Statistics: .265/.329/.464, 23 HR, 128/49 K/BB, 23.3 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics: .267/.336/.476, .275 EqA////Career batting line of .272/.334/.463--////Translated career batting line of .269/.335/.466, .272 EqA////Career K/BB of2.23/1--////Career has been limited to to many, many injuries////In all seasons of Dye's career when he had 450+ AB's, he has hit no less than 23 HR////Has spent last four seasons in KC (severe hitter's park at the time), and Oakland (neutral park)////

6. Todd Hollandsworth (32): Signed with Cubs, 1 yr/$900,000 2004 Statistics (148 AB): .318/.392/.547, 8 HR, 26/17 K/BB, 16.8 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics: .315/.387/.538, .307 EqA////Career batting line of .279/.336/.447--////Translated career batting line of .276/.332/.448, .266 EqA////Bad career K/BB of2.55/1--//// An injury to Hollandsworth shin limited his AB's last year (148)////Only once in Hollandsworth's 12-year career has he exceeded 300 AB's in one season (1996-Los Angeles)--a career backup////Each of the last three seasons, Hollandsworth's SLG % (02'-.417, 03'-.421, 04'-.547), and translated AVG (02'-.250, 03'-.258, 04'-.305), have gone up////Has spent last four seasons in Colorado (severe hitter's park), Texas (severe hitter's park), Chicago Cubs (slight pitcher's park), and Florida (severe pitcher's park)////

7. Juan Gonzalez (35): Signed minor league contract with Indians 2004 Statistics (127 AB): .276/.326/.441, 5 HR, 19/9 K/BB, 4.4 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics: .273/.328/.438, .260 EqA////Career batting line of .295/.343/.561--////Translated career batting line of .299/.349/.584, .302 EqA////Bad career K/BB of2.79/1--////2003 Statistics (Last season with 300+ AB): .294/.329/.572, 24 HR, 73/14 K/BB, 24.3 VORP////Translated 2003 Statistics: .285/.322/.570, .289 EqA////Due to injuries, Gonzalez has not had a season with 350+ AB since 2001 (Cleveland)////Spent last four seasons in KC (severe pitcher's park in 2004), Texas (severe hitter's park), and Cleveland (neutral park)////

8. Mark Sweeney (35): Signed with Padres, 1 year ($575,000) 2004 Statistics (177 AB): .266/.377/.508, 9 HR, 51/32 K/BB, 14.8 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics: .243/.363/.462, .284 EqA////Career batting line of .256/.349/.392--////Translated career batting line of .253/.347/.388, .259 EqA////Good career K/BB of 1.60/1--////Has been a backup entire 10-year career, has never had more than 180 AB's in any season////Recent EqA trend going up (02'-.164, 03'-.237, 02'-.284)////2004 represented a career-high for Sweeney in HR (9), Strikeouts (51), BB (32), and doubles (12)////Spent last four seasons in Colorado (severe hitter's park), San Diego (severe pitcher's park), and Milwaukee (neutral park)////

9. B.J. Surhoff (40): Signed with Orioles, 1 year ($1.1 million) 2004 Statistics (343 AB): .309/.365/.420, 8 HR, 29/29 K/BB, 16.7 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics: .309/.369/.429, .278 EqA////Career batting line of .283/.334/.416--////Translated career batting line of .292/.346/.443, .271 EqA////Very good career K/BB of 1.28/1--////Excluding injury-shortened season of 2002 (75 AB), Surhoff's AVG (01'-.271, 03'-.295, 04'-.309), OBP (01'-.321, 03'-.353, 04'-.365), and EqA (01'-.254, 03'-.271, 04'-.278) have all gone up in last three years////Primarily used as a backup since 2001////Spent last 4 seasons in Baltimore (severe pitcher's park, until 2004 when it bacame a severe hitter's park), and Atlanta (slight pitcher's park)////

10. Gabe Kapler (29): Signed in Japan, 2004 Statistics (280 AB): .272/.311/.390, 6 HR, 49/15 K/BB, 1.2 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics: .268/.310/.391, .243 EqA////Career batting line of .272/.332/.424--////Translated career batting line of .265/.328/.421, .261 EqA////Career K/BB of 1.93/1--////Has been a backup since 2002 (no season with 300+ AB's)////Spent last four seasons in Boston (slight hitter's park), Colorado (severe hitter's park), and Texas (severe hitter's park)////

11. Danny Bautista (33): Signed with Devil Rays, 1 yr/$1.9 million 2004 Statistics: .286/.332/.401, 11 HR, 66/35 K/BB, 14.4 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics: .275/.321/.385, .247 EqA////Career batting line of .272/.315/.409--////Translated career batting line of .265/.305/.403, .245 EqA////Bad career K/BB of2.74/1--////2004 represented a career high in HR (11) for Bautista////Spent last four seasons in Arizona (severe hitter's park)////In each of the last three seasons, Bautista's translated OBP had dropped (02'-.360, 03'-.325, 04'-.321)////

12. Brian Jordan (38): Signed with Braves, 1 yr/$600,000 2004 Statistics (212 AB): .222/.275/.363, 5 HR, 35/16 K/BB, (-7.0) VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics: .208/.269/.356, .218 EqA////Career batting line of .284/.336/.462--////Translated career batting line of .283/.335/.470, .273 EqA////Not a very good career K/BB of2.33/1--////2002 Statistics (Last season with 450+ AB): .285/.338/.469, 18 HR, 86/34 K/BB, 27.0 VORP////Translated 2002 Statistics: .297/.348/.499, .283 EqA////Injuries in both 2003 and 2004 have limited Jordan to under 250 AB's each season////Spent last four seasons in Texas (severe hitter's park), Los Angeles (severe pitcher's park), and Atlanta (slight pitcher' park)////

13. Darren Bragg (35): 2004 Statistics (101 AB): .188/.261/.356, 4 HR, 31/10 K/BB, (-2.5) VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics: .186/.262/.361, .219 EqA////Career batting line of .255/.340/.381--////Translated career batting line of .251/.338/.384, .256 EqA////Career K/BB of1.87/1--////Has not had a season with 275+ AB's, since 1998 (Boston)////Bragg's AVG (02'-.269, 03'-.241, 04'-.188), translated OBP (02'-.350, 03'-.303, 04'-.262), and translated AVG (02'-.275, 03'-.242, 04'-.186) have all dropped in each of the last three seasons////Has spent last four seasons in five different cities: New York Yankees (slight pitcher's park), New York Mets (severe pitcher's park), Atlanta (slight pitcher's park), Cincinatti (moderate hitter's park), and San Diego (severe pitcher's park)////

14. Orlando Palmeiro (36): Signed with Astros, 1 year ($800,000) 2004 Statistics (133 AB): .241/.344/.346, 3 HR, 19/18 K/BB, 1.9 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics: .233/.334/.341, .244 EqA////Career batting line of .277/.356/.348--////Translated career batting line of .279/.360/.355, .256 EqA////Unbelievable career K/BB of .798/1--////2003 Statistics (Last season with 300+ AB): .271/.330/.347, 3 HR, 31/32 K/BB, 00.0 VORP////Translated 2003 Statistics: .278/.346/.353, .249 EqA////Has never had a season of 318+ AB's in his entire 10-year career--a career backup////In each of the last three seasons, Palmeiro's AVG (02'-.300, 03'-.274, 04'-.241), SLG(02'-.354, 03'-.347, 04'-.346), and EqA(02'-.271, 03'-.249, 04'-.244) have dropped////Spent last four seasons in Anaheim (slight pitcher's park), St. Louis (moderate pitcher's park), and Houston (severe hitter's park)////

Next up, free-agent right-handed starting pitchers (RHSP).

Since there are so many free-agent RHSP, the scouting reports will be done in groups of ten (1-10, 11-20 etc...) according to my ranking of whom I believe is the best available.

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concersn, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

The Needs of the Many....Part II

Continuing in my coverage of the swamp that is the game of musical chairs being played out this off-season amongst the 201 remaining free agents, today we’ll look at ten second tier free agents and my best educated guess about their final destinations. We’ll begin with a man who prior to last season’s injury would surely have been considered an elite free agent.

RF – Magglio Ordonez (Mets)

Ordonez will surely have a number of possible suitors…teams ranging from his hometown White Sox to the generally active Mariners to the Arizona Diamondbacks. In the end however, it’s going to come down to the Dodgers, the Mets, and the Astros in the opinion of this observer. Being that this is another Scott Boras special…I gotta go with the team most likely to have a lot of resources to commit. That’s New York.

SP – Carl Pavano (Yankees)

A young and previously unspectacular starter with the Marlins, Pavano had an apparent career year in 2004. In reality, his defense-independent pitching statistics didn’t change. He never has been, and never will be an elite starting pitcher. The only problem with that assessment is that it isn’t shared by baseball’s GMs. They’re convinced they’re getting a solid #2 starter and at least a dozen teams have already had conversations with his agent Adam Shapiro. With a likely bidding frenzy for his services, all of the rumors about Pavano ending up in small ports like Baltimore, Seattle, and St. Louis...not bloody likely. No, I suspect that when Steinbrenner falls short for Pedro, he’s coming after Pavano.

3B – Troy Glaus (Mariners)

If it weren’t for four injuries in three seasons…some minor, and some major…last year’s devastating shoulder problems that limited him to 57 games, Glaus would have been one of the top 2 or 3 free agents available in 2004. And he’d have probably been re-signed by the Angels. Instead they decided to get younger and go with prospect Dallas McPherson. Glaus is homeless, and not in high demand. The same five teams bidding for Adrian Beltre will be bidding for Glaus as a consolation prize. This time I believe the Mariners will be his final resting place. With the Dodgers the only other team on the west coast already satisfied with Beltre…and Glaus wanting to stay west of the Rockies…the Mariners have the upper hand and the money to get it done.

SS – Orlando Cabrera (Red Sox)

This could be quite the dogfight. The Cards, having probably lost out on Renteria, are going to come out looking for a shortstop…and most of the lesser ones will have already signed deals like those of Omar Vizquel and Christian Guzman. However, the Red Sox will be working hard to keep their ball club together, and Cabrera is an important part of that effort. In the end…Cabrera stays put.

RP - Armando Benitez (Cubs)

Go through the various teams in baseball one by one, like I did. Count off the number of them that are looking for a closer, AND have enough money lying around to sign the elite closer on the market. There’s only two that fit that bill…San Francisco and Chicago. I think the Cubbies will be the lucky winners of the effective but streaky Benitez; and his tendency to choke in big games…that just fits very well in a city that loves to choke when the pressure is on.

RF – JD Drew (Braves)

Drew’s agent may be Boras, but I get the distinct impression that he is committed to staying in Atlanta, and that even if he weren’t, his reputation for injuries, more injuries, and his salary demands…would hold down his options for right field assignments. The Braves also seem committed to resigning their right fielder, so I think it gets done…and it doesn’t take too long to get it done.

SP – Odalis Perez (Cardinals)

It is becoming abundantly clear that the Cards are unhappy with Matt Morris anchoring their pitching staff. Since Morris is likely to find a home elsewhere, they’ll need a solid #2 starter to eat innings and garner some wins. I believe Perez will come at a low enough price to make him the best fit in St. Louis. They will have some competition for his services; just about every major league team could use a starting pitcher and will set some money aside to sign one. For now though, this is where I think he’ll wind up.

C – Jason Varitek (Red Sox)

Continuing in their efforts to hold their nucleus together from the first successful group since 1918, the Red Sox will throw way more money at Varitek than he deserves. He has a well deserved reputation as a good game-caller, and team leader, but it’s hard to make a case for him being worth $11 million a year, which is what he’s currently asking for-and will probably get from the Sox. His high asking price almost guarantees that Boston is his home for another 3-5 years.

SP – Brad Radke (Mariners)

Radke continues to fly under the radar as teams focus on flashier commodities like Pavano and Clement. He will certainly have some bidders, and it’s doubtful he will make less money than he did in 2004 ($9 Million) after his great 2004 season. The "king" of control, and master of the K/BB ratio, will find a home at Safeco Field where his tendency to give up the long ball will be partially neutralized. He’s still got at least 5 more good years with his assortment of junk, making him the ideal successor to Jamie Moyer.

SP - Derek Lowe (Red Sox)

I know it’s not terribly original to predict that a Red Sox player will stay in Boston…but I firmly believe that Boston will hang onto what it has until better options present themselves, and right now, there aren’t better options that the Sox can afford than Derek Lowe. After his flashy performance in the post-season, Lowe will likely have potential buyers totally forgetting his two straight seasons of inconsistentcy, and overall below-average pitching; much like the White Sox forgot about Freddy Garcia’s control problems when they traded their entire farm system to the Mariners for him in July. The Sox will overpay to keep him and hope he can settle down and fulfill his promise for the first time since 2002.

Matthew Souders

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, suggestions specific to this article, please do not hesitate to email Matthew Souders at m_souders@yahoo.com.

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, suggestions, please do not hesitate to email Frank Bundy III at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

Angels-Expos (Nationals, Grays, or Senators) Trade

On November 17, 2004 the Anaheim Angels completed a trade with the new franchise in Washington D.C. (formerly the Montreal Expos). In the trade, the Angels gave Washington it's beleaguered right fielder Jose Guillen (28), in exchange for minor- leaguer Macier Izturis (24)--brother of Los Angeles Dodger Shortstop, Cesar--, and OF Juan Rivera (25).

Before delving into the obvious questions, such as "Which team does this trade benefit more?" and "Why was this trade made?" Here is a look at each player's 2004 statistics:

Macier Izturis (AAA- Edmonton Trappers)- .338/.428/.423, .238 MjEqA, 57/30 K/BB, 3 HR, 19 2B, 2 3B, 14/12 SB/CS

Macier Izturis (MLB-Montreal Expos)- 32 Games, 107 AB's, .206/.286/.318, 20/10 K/BB, 1 HR, 5 2B, 2 3B, 4/0 SB/CS
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Juan Rivera (MLB-Montreal Expos)- 134 Games, 391 AB, .307/.364/.465, 12 HR, 45/34 K/BB, 6/2 SB/CS

Translated batting line- .301/.357/.454-.279 EqA
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Jose Guillen (MLB- Anaheim Angels)- 148 Games, 565 AB, .294/.352/.497, 27 HR, 92/37 K/BB, 5/4 SB/CS

Translated batting line- .303/.361/.521-.293 EqA
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As one can clearly see, Izturis is a great prospect. A .238 Major League Equivlant EqA, at age 24 is excellent.

It is also clear that Rivera is coming off of a great season in Montreal, as is Guillen in Anaheim.

Now, to begin answering the question of "Which team benefitted the most from this trade?" the first point that must be clarified is that Guillen is the best player involved in this deal.

Since Guillen is the best player in the deal, and Washington is the team that ended up with him, does that mean Washington got the best of this deal? The answer to that question is "No."

Rivera is a young player that has responded to an increase in AB's every year, by increasing many of his offensive statistics, while showing no decline in any category. Starting in 2002, and going through 2004, Rivera has raised his HR total (1-7-12) each and every year, as well as his 2B totals (5-14-24), AVG (.265-.266-.307), and EqA (.244-.268-.279).

While Rivera is a young player clearly on the rise, so is Izturis. Just look at his numbers last year in the AAA league. While it is true, he did not do well in his 107 AB in the major leagues last year, that is completely to be expected of by a rookie, and should not be held against him. It is more important to look at what Izturis accomplished throughout his many more AB in the minors leagues, and to see that his MjEqA of .238, which as stated earlier, is good for any 24 year old not named Albert Pujols.

So while it is true that Washington did not benefit the most from this trade, they also did not lose out on this trade either. With Guillen being only 28 (29 next baseball season), and factoring in the tremendous numbers that he put up last year, Washington is receiving a great player.

So as much as I hate to do this, I'd have to say that there are two answers to this question:

1. For the next 2-4 years this trade benefits the new Washington franchise, because Guillen has already proven that he is a great offensive player. Also, with Guillen being only 28, he should have some very good years still ahead.

2. For the next 5-8 years, this trade benefits the Angels. By securing Rivera and Izturis, they've assured themselves that they will have solid, if not very good players, in both the OF and SS positions, for years down the road.

To sum this trade up, the Angels traded for the future, while the Expos traded to win now.

Now the question, "Why was this trade made?"

This question has an easy answer.

Since Washington is a "new" franchise, they believe it is important to show it's new fan-base that they are serious about winning, and winning now. By completing this trade, and receiving established-star Guillen, Washington has proven that it wants to win now.

By giving up two players under the age of 27, on the rise, they have shown winning now is the priority, not the future.

And for Anaheim, this trade was made for the future; and to rid of it's egotistical, temper-tantrum-throwing, right fielder.

Both teams got what they wanted out of this trade.

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

Serious Baseball American League "Great Gloves"

After looking at the 2004 recipients of the American League Gold Glove awards, and disagreeing with many of them, I decided to award "Great Gloves."

"Great Gloves" are essentially the same as the Gold Gloves, except that the winners are picked by me. Winners were chosen based on their fielding statistics.

I will list the AL Gold Glove winner, and his fielding statistics, directly above the Serious Baseball "Great Glove" winner and his statistics, by position, so you can compare the two recipients.

In some cases, the AL Gold Glove winner will be the same as the SB (Serious Baseball) "Great Glove" winner.

Here are the winners:
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Statistic Glossary:

Fielding Percentage: Total number of errors, divided by Total Chances (TC)

TC: Total Chances

E: Errors

SB: Stolen Bases against Catchers

CS: Runners caught stealing against catchers

TC/E: How many chances, on average, went by before that player made an error (formula is same as title-TC/E).......Very useful in prorating a players error total when comparing players with closes TC totals. Will be written as, ie:1/264, which would mean that player made one error every 264 chances.
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Catcher:
AL Gold Glove Winnner: Ivan Rodriguez (DET)- .987 Fldg %, 833 TC, 11 E, 40 SB, 19 CS, 3 PB

SB "Great Glove" Winner: Ivan Rodriguez (DET)- SAME AS ABOVE

First Base:
AL Gold Glove Winner: Darin Erstad (ANA)- .996 Fldg %, 1056 TC, 4 E, 1/264 TC/E

SB "Great Glove" Winner: John Olerud (SEA/NYY)- .998 Fldg %, 994 TC, 2 E, 1/497 TC/E

Second Base:
AL Gold Glove Winner: Bret Boone (SEA)- .978 Fldg %, 644 TC, 14 E, 1/46 TC/E

SB "Great Glove" Winner: Brian Roberts (BAL)- .988 Fldg %, 669 TC, 8 E, 1/83.62 TC/E

Third Base:
AL Gold Glove Winner: Eric Chavez (OAK)- .968 Fldg %, 402 TC, 13 E, 1/30.92 TC/E

SB "Great Glove" Winner: Eric Hinske (TOR)- .978 Fldg %, 357 TC, 8 E, 1/44.62 TC/E

Shortstop
AL Gold Glove Winner: Derek Jeter (NYY)- .981 Fldg %, 678 TC, 13 E, 1/52.15 TC/E

SB "Great Glove" Winner: Cristian Guzman (MIN)- .983 Fldg %, 683 TC, 12 E, 1/56.91 TC/E

Outfield
AL Gold Glove Winner: Ichiro Suzuki (SEA)- .992 Fldg %, 387 TC, 3 E, 1/129 TC/E
AL Gold Glove Winner: Torii Hunter(MIN)- .988 Fldg %, 320 TC, 4 E, 1/80 TC/E
AL Gold Glove Winner: Vernon Wells (TOR)- .997 Fldg %, 333 TC, 1 E, 1/333 TC/E

SB "Great Glove" Winner: Carl Crawford (TB)- .994 Fldg %, 357 TC, 2 E, 1/178.5 TC/E
SB "Great Glove" Winner: Carlos Lee(CHA)- 1.000 Fldg %, 293 TC, 0 E, 0/293 TC/E
SB "Great Glove" Winner: Vernon Wells (TOR)- SAME AS ABOVE

Pitcher
AL Gold Glove Winner: Kenny Rogers (TEX)- .985 Fldg %, 65 TC, 1 E, 1/65 TC/E

SB "Great Glove" Winner: Kenny Rogers (TEX)- SAME AS ABOVE

Congratulations to all of the winners.

Even though there is a great chance the winners will never know that they have won a Serious Baseball "Great Glove" award, it is an honor to give them this award.

I believe the Serious Baseball "Great Glove" award winners are the players who should have won the AL Gold Glove awards; and I believe the listed statistics prove that point.

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

Free-Agent Center Fielders

Now we look at the 2004 free-agent Center Fielders.

There isn't alot of them, but there are some good ones. Obviously, Carlos Beltran is the best available.

You may be surprised to see Marquis Grissom, and Steve Finley not on the top half of the list. The reason they are ranked so low is simply because they are 38 and 40 years of age respectively. I just couldn't rank them ahead of Ricky Ledee and Doug Glanville (31 and 34 years of age).

Glanville over Grissom is a coin-flip, and can be interchanged anyway you would like, but I had to go with the age factor on that one.

Again, as always, each free-agent is ranked as to whom I believe is the best available.

1. Carlos Beltran(28): Signed with Mets, 7 yrs/$119 million 2004 Statistics- .267/.367/.548, 38 HR, 101/92 K/BB, 42/3 SB/CS, 68.5 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .259/.360/.536, .305 EqA////Career batting line of .284/.353/.490--////Translated career batting line of .273/.348/.481, .287 EqA////Good career K/BB of 1.73/1--////Career SB/CS of 192/23 (89.3%)////2004 represented a career high in HR (38), SB (42), and BB (92) for Beltran////Spent last 4 seasons in Kansas City (severe pitcher's park until 2004 when it became a severe hitter's park), and Houston (moderate hitter's park)////

2. Jeromy Burnitz (36): Signed by Cubs, 1 year/$5 million 2004 Statistics-.283/.356/.559, 37 HR, 124/58 K/BB, 43.5 VORP ////Translated 2004 Statistics- .263/.338/.523, .282 EqA////Career batting line of .254/.351/.491--////Translated career batting line of .252/.347/.490, .280 EqA////Good career K/BB of 1.81/1--////2004 represented a career-high in HR for Burnitz (37)////In Burnitz's last 3 seasons his AVG (02'-.215, 03'-.239 ,04'-.283), SLG (02'-.365,03'-.487 ,04'-.559), HR totals (02'-19, 03'-31 ,04'-37), and 2B totals (02'-15, 03'-22 ,04'-30) have all steadily gone up////Spent last 4 seasons in Milwaukee (neutral park), New York Mets (severe pitcher's park), Los Angeles (severe pitcher's park), and Colorado (severe hitter's park)

3. Ricky Ledee (31): Signed with Dodgers, 2 years ($2.5 million) 2004 Statistics- .233/.337/.403, 7 HR, 47/27 K/BB, 6.7 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .229/.333/.400, .246 EqA////Career batting line of .242/.328/.413--////Translated career batting line of .243/.329/.419, .259 EqA////Good career K/BB of 1.94/1--////A career backup, hasn't had more than 255 AB's during any season in his career////Translated OBP has gone down in each of last 3 seasons (02'-.348, 03'-.343 ,04'-.333)////Spent last four seasons in Texas (severe hitter's park), Philadelphia (moderate pitcher's park), and San Francisco (severe pitcher's park)////

4. Steve Finley (40): Signed with Anaheim, 2 years ($14 million) 2004 Statistics- .271/.333/.490, 36 HR, 82/61 K/BB, 9/7 SB/CS, 35.8 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .266/.326/.483, .271 EqA////Career batting line of .276/.337/.450--////Translated career batting line of .280/.342/.467, .275 EqA////Very good career K/BB of 1.53/1--////Not a good career SB/CS of 305/114 (72.8%) ////In each of last three seasons, Finley's OBP has declined (02'-.370, 03'-.363 ,04'-.333)////Spent last 4 seasons in Arizona (severe hitter's park), and Los Angeles (severe pitcher's park)////

5. Doug Glanville (34): Signed minor league contract with Yankees 2004 Statistics (162 AB)- .210/.244/.265, 2 HR, 21/8 K/BB, 8/0 SB/CS, (-8.2) VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .204/.238/.255, .191 EqA////Career batting line of .277/.315/.380--////Translated career batting line of .274/.309/.375, .245 EqA////Last healthy season was 2002, statistics that year: .249/.292/.344, 6 HR, 57/25 K/BB, 19/2 SB/CS, 4.8 VORP////Translated 2002 Statistics- .259/.300/.357/, .240 EqA////Career K/BB of 2.41/1--////Last seaons with 400+ AB's was 2002 (Philadelphia)////OBP has declined in the last 3 years (02'-.292, 03'-.286, 04'-.244)////Although not the stolen base threat he once was earlier in his career, he still maintains an very good career SB/CS of 168/36 (82.3%)////Spent last 4 seasons in Philadelphia (moderate pitcher's park), Chicago Cubs (slight pitcher's park), and Texas (severe hitter's park)////

6. Marquis Grissom (38): Option picked up by Giants 2004 Statistics- .279/.323/.450, 22 HR, 83/37 K/BB, 3/1 SB/CS, 25.3 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .276/.319/.443, .260 EqA////Career batting line of .273/.319/.417--////Translated career batting line of .274/.321/.431, .262 EqA////Career K/BB of 2.24/1--////Career SB/CS of 428/115 (78.8%)////In each of the last 3 seasons, Grissom's SLG % has dropped (02'-.510,03'-.468 ,04'-.450)////Recent EqA trend is going downward (02'-.288,03'-.271 ,04'-.260)///Like Glanville, no longer the SB threat he once was, but still maintains a good SB/CS of 428/115 (78.8 %)/////Spent last four seasons in Los Angeles (severe pitcher's park), and San Francisco (severe pitcher's park)////

7. Tom Goodwin (36): 2004 Statistics (105 AB)- .200/.254/.276, 0 HR, 22/8 K/BB, 5/0 SB/CS, (-4.2) VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .196/.248/.265, .196 EqA////Career batting line of .268/.332/.339--////Translated career batting line of .263/.326/.336, .247 EqA////Good career K/BB of 1.97/1--////Career SB/CS of 369/118 (75.8%)////Hasn't had a season of 400+ AB's since 1999 (Texas)////Last season (2004) was the first since 1994 that Goodwin has stolen less than 16 bases////Recent EqA trend is going downward (02'-.258,03'-.255 ,04'-.196)////Spent last 4 seasons in Chicago Cubs (slight pitcher's park), San Francisco (severe pitcher's park), and Los Angeles (severe pitcher's park)////

Next up, free-agent right fielders.

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

New Writer at Serious Baseball

Again, for the second time in two days, there is a new writer at Serious Baseball.

His name is Matthew Souders, and if any of you visit the forums at MLB Center.com, you know him as SABR Matt.

Again, I would like to be the first to welcome him to Serious Baseball.

Like Steven Hanson before him, Matt will add a whole new perspective to the site.

Matthew's first article, "The Needs of the Many," is posted below this introduction.

Enjoy the article, I know I did.

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

The Needs of the Many

Free agency brings with it the hope for every team that their problems and weaknesses from the previous season will be addressed. Hope springs eternal from Seattle to St. Louis, from Boston to LA. As is customary around this time of year, the informed and the casual alike begin speculating on who will sign where. I’ll take a crack at it today as well. Below is a listing of the ten most important free agents on the market and some raw unadulterated speculation about where they might just end up.

CF – Carlos Beltran (Yankees)

Yeah I know…it’s a bit obvious. He’s tops on everyone’s list…but a select few teams can actually afford him. Possible players include the Yankees, whose payroll just isn’t quite high enough for Steinbrenner unless it exceeds the GNP of at least fifty countries, the Phillies, desperately in need of an actual outfielder now that they’ve finally realized Abreu is a pathetic defensive outfielder and Pat Burrell may be the worst defender in the national league, the Astros, who will look rather bad if they can’t hang onto Beltran while they’re losing Jeff Kent as well, and the Angels now that they’ve dealt with Jose Guillen. I hate to do it…but I gotta go with the odds on this one. Yankee Stadium needs a new legend in Center.

3B – Adrian Beltre (Dodgers)

It seems to be a common conceit that the Dodgers will eventually win the bidding war for the services of Adrian Beltre, fresh off his 48 HR, 332 BA campaign in 2004. The one-time 25 year old phenom, and current all star will cost too much for 18 of the 30 teams, and only five stand out as even remote possibilities. The Red Sox have Kevin Youkilis and Billy Mueller, but neither are long-term solutions at third base and they Sox know it. If they can’t lock up Orlando Cabrera or Jason Varitek they may suddenly divert their attention to Beltre and make a deal for the other positions they can’t fill. The Phillies will get one big name. If they fall short on Beltran, third base is a hole for them as well, so Beltre is an option. The Astros are rumored to be frustrated with Morgan Ensberg…possibly enough to move him if they can’t resign Beltran, although I find that hard to believe. The Dodgers have the money, the hometown connection, and a gaping hole at third if they can’t convince Beltre to stay put. And finally, the Mariners, complete with twenty five million dollars to spend on free agents and a hole at third base that has never been filled through the entire history of the franchise. I almost picked the Mariners here…but I believe Seattle will commit its financial resources more evenly and can therefore probably not afford to sign any player who’ll be demanding 15 million a year.

Richie Sexson – 1B (Orioles)

This basically comes down to three questions…who needs a first baseman, who has money, and who is willing to take the risk that Sexson’s injured back won’t flare back up again? The teams that fit this bill: the Mariners, the Orioles, the Angels, and the Braves. Everyone else has a first baseman under contract or can’t afford Sexson. Although Sexson has expressed a desire to play for Seattle and Mariner management favors players with ties to the Pacific Northwest, the Mariners are favoring another first baseman. The nod therefore goes to Baltimore.

SS – Nomar Garciaparra (Angels)

Here’s where there are far more choices for destinations. There are a dozen teams with holes on their middle infield and money to spend to get one. Possibilities range from the Cardinals and Cubs to the Angels and Dodgers and several others. However, the most pressing need lies in Anaheim where the Angels are without Adam Kennedy for at least three months in 2005. It seems likely that David Eckstein will slide over to second base and the Angels will acquire an elite shortstop. Nomar fits the bill.

SP – Matt Clement (Blue Jays)

I expect many of you are surprised by this selection. We’ve heard almost nothing from the press about the likely destination of the only elite power pitcher on the market, but we do know that the Blue Jays have been looking for someone to serve as Halladay’s wingman for two years now. I’m going out on a limb and putting Clement in an unusual locale…call it a gut feeling.

SP – Pedro Martinez (Red Sox)

For all the talk about Pedro and Steinbrenner having contact and Boston looking elsewhere for their starting pitching…now is not the time for Boston to make major changes. Epstein will be working as hard as he can to hold his team together, and I believe that in the end, Pedro will stay put.

1B – Carlos Delgado (Mariners)

While the Mariners aren’t the only team who might have interest in the big bat of the aging Carlos Delgado, they are the only team who’ve been reported to have made Delgado their primary target. His left handed swing will fit in quite nicely at Safeco Field for at least a few more years before he begins his inevitable decline.

2B – Jeff Kent (Padres)

With a new stadium and a bourgeoning population of good young pitching prospects and outfielders, the Padres are looking to unload Ryan Klesko’s contract. If they succeed, which I feel is likely eventually, they’re going to come out in search of a middle infielder, some relievers, and maybe a corner infielder. I believe San Diego will get someone. And Kent prefers national league baseball, so it’s either here or Houston.

SP – Roger Clemens (Astros)

Refusing to let the sun set, Clemens had a banner year and notched a Cy Young award. Now he’s 99% certain he’s going to play for another season, and he feels no compelling reason to move. Houston will lock him up quickly and turn their attention to filling their vacant outfield positions and finding a second baseman to replace Kent.

SS – Edgar Renteria (Cubs)

It looks like a two team battle for Renteria’s services, the Cubs or the Cards. Although St. Louis has the “home field advantage” I fully expect the Cubs will have more resources than St. Louis, and this off-season, more than many others, will be about raising the bar on contracts as agents struggle to generate a market correction to halt the decline in the salaries of top end free agents. Home field will mean nothing in 2005.


Matthew Souders

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, specific to this article, please do not hesitate to email Matthew Souders at m_souders@yahoo.com.

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions about anything concerning the website, please do not hestitate to email Frank Bundy III at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

Edgar Martinez in the Hall of Fame?

A decent argument could be made about Edgar Martinez, who spent his entire 18-year career playing for the Seattle Mariners, and whether he deserves a spot in the Hall of Fame. You can say that he didn't play enough in the field to be considered, even though he was the best player to play his position.

But too bad his position happened to be designated hitter, huh? My problem with people who say he's not worthy of that spot in the hall, is that they just assume that he couldn't field. To remind those who don't know, he started his career playing third base for the same team he's been with up until now, but his legs weren't strong enough to continue playing field positions. You can consider him a designated hitter all you want, where he played 1,412 games, but he also played 563 at third. Not too bad of a comparison when you look at it, is it? You have to remember, when a manager assigns you to a position for the game, that's where you play. It just so happens that Edgar Martinez was instructed to sit on the bench while his team was on the field; don't hold that against him.

Career Statistics (18 seasons): .312/.418/.515, 309 HR, 1202/1283 (0.937/1) K/BB
Translated Career Statistics (18 seasons): .320/.430/.552, .328 EqA

Baseball Prospectus: Edgar Martinez Stat Profile
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/martied01.shtml

Putting the stats aside for a moment, Martinez wasn't only a great player that meant the world to the Seattle Mariner organization, he was known league-wide as a class act. Martinez did things for the community some players will never get the chance to do, and that's something to acknowledge. On the second-to-last game of last season, Martinez was recognized by the Mariners, by having a street named in his honor, his name added to the Seattle Mariners Hall of Fame, and Bud Selig officially named the designated hitter award in his name.

For me, the bottom line is that Martinez was the best at his position, despite what it happened to be. Given the opportunity, Martinez will be a great candidate for MLB's Hall of Fame.

Thank you for reading.

Steven Hanson

If you have any questions, comments, concerns or suggestions, specific to this article, please do not hesitate to email Steven Hanson at bravest2@yahoo.com

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

New Writer at Serious Baseball

I would like to be the first to welcome Steven Hanson to Serious Baseball as a new writer to the site.

Steven will write articles on all topics of baseball, just as I have, and will continue to do.

Steven will add a new, interesting perspective to the website.

Steven's first article is posted above this introduction.

Enjoy the article.

If you have any questions for Steve, his email address is bravest2@yahoo.com.

If you have any questions for me, my email address is frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

Frank Bundy III

Free-Agent Left Fielders

Now we take a look at the 2004 crop of 2004 free-agent left-fielders.

Hopefully, your team doesn't need a left-fielder this year. First of all, there aren't many available, second of all, there is only one everyday starter (Alou) on the list--and he is going to be 38 next year.

The list even includes a player who didn't even play in Major League Baseball in 2004 (Cordova).

There really isn't alot to look at here, but as always, I have these few players ranked according to whom I believe is the best available.

1. Moises Alou (38): Signed with Giants, 2 yrs/$13.25 million 2004 Statistics- .293/.361/.557, 39 HR, 80/68 K/BB, 51.5 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- .287/.358/.548, .299 EqA////Career Batting Line of .300/.367/.520--////Translated Career batting line of .298/.367/.520, .296 EqA////Very good career K/BB of 1.26/1--////Alou's recent EqA trend is going up (02'-.270, 03'-.282, 04'-.299)////Spent last 4 seasons of career in Chicago Cubs (slight pitcher's park), and Houston (moderate hitter's park)////In the last three years, every statistic in Alou's batting line has gone up. Here are his statistics in 2002, 2003, and 2004:

2002: .275/.337/.419, 15 HR, 61/47 K/BB, 18.9 VORP
2003: .280/.357/.462, 22 HR, 67/63 K/BB, 30.5 VORP
2004: .293/.361/.557, 39 HR, 80/68 K/BB, 51.5 VORP

2. Dave Dellucci (31): Signed with Rangers, 2 years ($1.8 million) 2004 Statistics (331 AB)- .242/.342/.441, 17 HR, 88/47 K/BB, 8.6 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- .232/.339/.429, .266 EqA////Career Batting Line of .261/.339/.418--////Translated Career batting line of .254/.333/.411, .259 EqA////Career K/BB of 2.30/1--////Only one season with 350+ AB's in his career (1998 in Arizona)--a career backup////Hit 17 HR in only 331 AB's last year, which represented a career high for Dellucci////Was injured at various points in 2004////Spent last four seaons in Texas (severe hitter's park), New York Yankees (slight pitcher's park), and Arizona (severe hitter's park)////

3. John Mabry (34): Signed with Cardinals, 1 year ($750,000) 2004 Statistics(240 AB)- .296/.363/.504, 13 HR, 63/26 K/BB, 18.1 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- .299/.367/.506, .292 EqA////Career Batting Line of .271/.328/.413--////Translated Career batting line of .271/.328/.418, .257 EqA////Not a very good career K/BB of 2.49/1--////Mabry's 240 AB's in 2004 represented his highest total since 1999 (Seattle)////A backup since 1996 (last season with 400+ AB's--543 AB with StL.)////2004 represented a career high in OBP, and EqA for Mabry////Spent last four seasons in five different cities: Florida (severe pitcher's park), Philadelphia (slight hitter's park), Oakland (neutral park), St. Louis (moderate pitcher's park), and Seattle (severe pitcher's park)////

4. Ray Lankford (38): 2004 Statistics(200 AB)- .259/.349/.425, 6 HR, 55/29 K/BB, 6.2 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- .255/.355/.427, .270 EqA////Career Batting Line of .272/.364/.477--////Translated Career batting line of .274/.368/.494, .290 EqA////Career K/BB of 1.87/1--////Has been a backup since 1999 (his last season with 400+ AB's)////Has not had over 265 AB's since 2000////Lankford's wrist was injured for part of 2004, and that kept him out of many games during the season////Spent last four seasons in San Diego (severe pitcher's park), and St. Louis (moderate pitcher's park)////

5. Quentin McCracken (35): Signed minor league contract with Diamondbacks 2004 Statistics-.273/.328/.381, 2 HR, 27/15 K/BB, 1.3 VORP ////2004 Translated Statistics-.269/.323/.368, .235 EqA ////Career Batting Line of .279/.340/.382--////Translated Career batting line of .267/.330/.369, .248 EqA////Career K/BB of 1.98/1--////Hasn't had 350+ AB's since 1998 (Tampa Bay)////Has, for the most part, been a backup since 1998////McCracken injured his knee in 2004 and did not play the last month of the season////Spent last four seasons in Minnesota (neutral park), Arizona (severe hitter's park), and Seattle (severe pitcher's park)////

6. Marty Cordova (34) --(Only 30 AB in 2003, Out of baseball in 2004)- Signed minor league contract with Devil Rays 2002 Statistics- .253/.325/.434, 18 HR, 111/47 K/BB, 12.2 VORP////2002 Translated Statistics--.265/.340/.455, .267 EqA////Career batting line of .274/.344/.448--////Translated career batting line of .275/.346/.459, .274 EqA////Career batting line of 2.22/1--////Every season in which Cordova has gotten 350+ AB's, he has hit 10 or more HR's////Before undergoing ligament reconstruction ("Tommy John") surgery on his right elbow Cordova spent his last four seasons in Baltimore (severe pitcher's park), Cleveland (neutral park), and Toronto (moderate hitter's park)////

7. Dave Berg (34): Signed minor league contract with Red Sox 2004 Statistics (154 AB)- .253/.278/.338, 3 HR, 27/4 K/BB, (-5.5) VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- .252/.280/.333, .212 EqA////Career Batting Line of .269/.328/.373--////Translated Career batting line of .269/.328/.373, .247 EqA////Career K/BB of 2.32/1--////Has not had a season with 350+ AB's in his entire 7-year career////Recent EqA trend is going down (02'-.249, 03'-.234, 04'-.212)////Spent last four seasons in Toronto (moderate hitter's park), and Florida (severe pitcher's park)////

Not that long of a list, huh?

Next up, free-agent center fielders.

I heard a rumor that there is a pretty good player on the free-agent center fielder list. His name is Belt....something. I'll find out about him.

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

Free-Agent Third Basemen

Now it's time to look at the 2004 crop of free-agent third basemen. There are not many, but there are some very good ones.

As always, free-agent's are ranked as to whom I believe is the best available.

Player's age for the 2005 season are in parenthesees next to their name.

1. Adrian Beltre (27): Signed with Mariners, 5 years ($64 million) 2004 Statistics- .334/.388/.629, 48 HR, 87/53 K/BB, 90.3 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics-.339/.393/.635, .330 EqA////Career batting line of .274/.332/.463--////Translated Career batting line of .286/.323/.449, .263 EqA////Terrible career K/BB of 3.20/1--////2004 represented career highs for Beltre in AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS, HR, VORP, and EqA////Spent entire 7-year career in Los Angeles (severe pitcher's park)////

2. Troy Glaus(28): Injured for much of 2003 and 2004, last full season was 2002; Signed with Diamondbacks, 4 years ($45 million) 2002 Statistics- .250/.352/.453, 30 HR, 144/88 K/BB, 42.2 VORP////2002 Translated Statistics-.256/.365/.474, .287 EqA////Injury-ridden 2004 statistics (207 AB)- .251/.355/.575, 18 HR, 52/31 K/BB, 21.1 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics (207 AB)- .258/.367/.598, .307 EqA//// Career batting line of .253/.357/.497--////Translated Career batting line of .254/.362/.511, .292 EqA////Very good career K/BB of 1.67/1--////Besides an AVG of .284 in 2000, Glaus's AVG in 2004 (.251) represented his career-high////In three of the four seasons in which Glaus has had more than 500 AB's (1999, 2000,'01, and 02'), he stole more than 10 bases (14 in 2000, and 10 in 01' and 02')////Spent entire 7-year career in Anaheim (slight pitcher's park)////

3. Corey Koskie (32): Signed with Bluejays, 3 years ($17 million) 2004 Statistics- .251/.342/.495, 25 HR, 49/12 K/BB, 25.7 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics-.251/.348/.506, .286 EqA////Career batting line of .280/.373/.463--////Translated Career batting line of .279/.377/.469, .289 EqA////Good career K/BB of 1.68/1--////Injured for part of 2004////In every season in which Koskie has accumulated 300+ AB's (99'-04'), his EqA has always been above .285////Recent trend in SLG% is going upward (02'-.447, 03'-.452, 04'-.495 )////Has only one season with 550+ AB's (2001), and in that season Koskie stole 27 bases and was only caught 6 times (82%)////Has stolen more than 9 bases in every season since 2001////Bad career SB/CS of 66/33 (67%)////Spent entire 7-year career in Minnesota (neutral park)////

4. Tony Batista(31): Signed in Japan, 2 years/$15 million 2004 Statistics- .241/.272/.455, 32 HR, 78/26 K/BB, (0.0) VORP////2004 Translated Statistics-.235/.269/.448, .243 EqA////Career batting line of .251/.298/.458--////Translated Career batting line of .251/.299/.465, .258 EqA////Bad career K/BB of 2.88/1--////As one can see by Batista's career numbers, he is terrible at getting on base (OBP), but very good at hitting for extra bases(SLG)////Stole 14 bases last year, which doubled his previous career high (7 in 1996), but was caught 6 times (20%)////Bad career SB/CS of 47/25 (65%)////Spent last four seasons of his career in Montreal (severe hitter's park), Baltimore (severe pitcher's park), and Toronto (moderate hitter's park)////

5. Joe Randa (35): Signed with Reds, 1 year ($2.15 million) 2004 Statistics- .287/.343/.408, 8 HR, 77/40 K/BB, 13.1 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics-.282/.346/.408, .263 EqA////Career batting line of .286/.341/.424--////Translated Career batting line of .279/.338/.420, .263 EqA////Good career K/BB of 1.71/1--////Homerun total in 2004 was half of total in 2003 (16)////Spent last six seasons of 10-year career in Kansas City (a severe hitter's park, until 2004 when fences were moved in and out, and it became a severe pitcher's park)////

6. Vinny Castilla (37): Signed with Washington (2 years-$6.2 million) 2004 Statistics- .271/.332/.535, 35 HR, 113/51 K/BB, 35.4 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics-.251/.315/.496, .271 EqA////Career batting line of .280/.324/.489--////Translated Career batting line of .257/.303/.455, .255 EqA////Not a very good career K/BB of 2.53/1--////Recent EqA trend going upward (02'-.220, 03'-.263, 04'-.271)////2004 represented a career high in K's for Castilla////The 2004 BB total for Castilla was only 2 BB's away from tying his career high in that category (53 in 99')////The 35 HR's Castilla hit in 2004 were the most he hit in his career since 1998 (46, also in Colorado)////Spent last four seasons of his career in four differents cities: Colorado (severe hitter's park), Atlanta (slight pitcher's park), Tampa Bay (neutral park), and Houston (moderate hitter's park)////Castilla's numbers outside of Coor's Field in Colorado = .250/.287/.404,--Castilla's numbers inside Coor's Field in Colorado = .295/.341/.529--////

7. Herbert Perry (35): 2002 was last season with 135+ AB, 2002 Statistics- .276/.333/.480, 22 HR, 66/34 K/BB, 26.9 VORP////2002 Translated Statistics-.271/.333/.487, .274 EqA////2004 Statistics (134 AB)- .224/.307/.366, 5 HR, 19/4 K/BB, (-1.2) VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .211/.302/.359, .234 EqA////Career batting line of .272/.335/.436--////Translated Career batting line of .269/.334/.440, .265 EqA////Bad career K/BB of 2.27/1--////Has had only 158 total AB's in the last two seasons////Beside 450 AB's in 2002, never has had more than 400 AB's during any season in career////Spent last four seasons in Texas (severe hitter's park), and Chicago Whitesox (slight hitter's park)////

8. Shane Halter (35): Only 46 games in 2004, Signed minor league contract with Devil Rays 2003 Statistics- .217/.269/.342, 12 HR, 77/27 K/BB, (-6.4) VORP////2003 Translated Statistics-.219/.278/.348, .219 EqA////Injury-ridden 2004 Statistics (114 AB's)- .202/.248/.351, 4 HR, 30/7 K/BB, (-4.1) VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- .206/.354/.355, .209 EqA////Career batting line of .246/.303/.385--////Translated Career batting line of .250/.311/.396, .245 EqA////Bad career K/BB of 2.84/1--////Recent EqA trend going down (02'-.252, 03'-.219, 04'-.209)////Spent last four seaons in Anaheim (slight pitcher's park), and Detroit (moderate pitcher's park)////

Notice that in this group, the two best-ranked free agents (Adrian Beltre, and Troy Glaus) are under 30 years of age--that does not happen very often.

Look for teams this winter to be bidding high on these two players, (especially Beltre, since he has no significant injury history like that of Troy Glaus).

Next up, free-agent left fielders.

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

Pitcher A vs. Pitcher B

The two following pitchers have pitched a full season, and these are their final statistics. Which pitcher had the better year?

Pitcher A vs. Pitcher B:

W/L Record
Pitcher A: 18-4 (33 Games Started, 214.3 Innings Pitched)
Pitcher B: 16-14 (35 Games Started, 245.7 Innings Pitched)

ERA
Pitcher A: 2.98
Pitcher B: 2.60

Hits Allowed
Pitcher A: 169 (7.1 H/9)
Pitcher B: 177 (6.5 H/9)

Strikeouts
Pitcher A: 281 (9.2 K/9)
Pitcher B: 290 (10.6 K/9)

Base on Balls Allowed
Pitcher A: 79 (3.3 BB/9)
Pitcher B: 44 (1.6 BB/9)

K/BB
Pitcher A: 281/79 (3.56/9)
Pitcher B: 290/44 (6.59/1)

Homeruns Allowed
Pitcher A: 15 (.6 HR/9)
Pitcher B: 18 (.7 HR/9)

Opponents Batting Average
Pitcher A: .217
Pitcher B: .197

WHIP (Walks + Hits per Inning Pitched)
Pitcher A: 1.16
Pitcher B: 0.90


Unless one believes that W-L record means alot, it is 100%, completely obvious that pitcher B had the better season.

But, that one person(s) that does believe that a pitchers W-L record does mean alot is the committee that decides who wins the Cy Young award.

Since they believe that this statistic--which is a statistic that is not completely under the control of the pitcher himself, and therefore it is NOT fair indicator of a pitchers performance--is more important than the other presented statistics--which the pitcher DOES HAVE COMPLETE CONTROL OF--this committee gave the Cy Young award to Pitcher A, which happens to be the 2004 version of Houston Astros pitcher Roger Clemens.

Pitcher B is the 2004 version of Arizona Diamondback pitcher Randy Johnson, who clearly deserved the award, but was snubbed because his team could not score enough runs to prevent him from losing so many games. It is kind of surprising that he managed to win 16 games, on such a horrible team--Arizona's record in 2004 was 51-111.

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, concerns, comments, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

Free-Agent Shortstops

Now for the 2004 free-agent crop of Shortstops.

I believe this is a very good crop. It includes one of the best shortstops in recent memory in Garciaparra, as well as a 40 year old whose career is on the upswing (according to EqA)--Barry Larkin.

As always, players are ranked by whom I believe is the best available.

Players age for 2005 season in parthesees.

1. Nomar Garciaparra (31): Signed with Cubs, 1 year ($8 million) 2004 Statistics- .301/.365/.477, 9 HR, 30/24 K/BB, 29.7 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .305/.361/.479, .287 EqA////Career batting line of .322/.370/.549--////Translated Career batting line of .322/.374/.563, .308 EqA////Great career K/BB of 1.42/1--////In his last full healthy season(2003), Garciaparra stole 19 bases, and was caught 5 times////Spent entire career in Boston (Slight hitter's park), before midseason trade last season sent him to the Cub's Wrigley Field (slight pitcher's park)////

2. Edgar Renteria (29): Signed with Red Sox, 4 years ($40 million) 2004 Statistics- .287/.327/.401, 10 HR, 78/39 K/BB, 26.5 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .291/.335/.409, .255 EqA////Career batting line of .289/.346/.400--////Translated career batting line of.292/.348/.403, .265 EqA////Very good career K/BB of 1.55/1--////Last four seasons of career spent in St. Louis (moderate pitcher's park)////Has stolen 17-41 bases every year of his 9 year career////Career SB/CS of 237/89 (72.7%)////2004 was Renteria's worst season according to EqA since 2001 (.245)////

3. Rich Aurilia (33): Signed minor league contract with Reds 2004 Statistics- .246/.314/.353, 6 HR, 71/37 K/BB, 5.8 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .250/.320/.370, .248 EqA////Career batting line of .275/.329/.435--////Translated career batting line of .280/.333/.446, .266 EqA////Career K/BB of 1.94/1--////Spent last 4 seasons in San Francisco (severe pitchers park), San Diego for half of 2004 (severe pitcher's park), and Seattle for half of 2004 (severe pitcher's park)////Aurilia has only put up an EqA higher than .280 once in his career (2001 - .314)////

4. Jose Hernandez (35): Signed with Indians, 1year ($1.8 million) 2004 Statistics- .289/.370/.540, 13 HR, 61/26 K/BB, 24.7 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .292/.372/.550, .305 EqA////Was a backup in Los Angeles in 2004////Career batting line of ..253/.313/.424--////Translated Career batting line of .250/.308/.421, .250 EqA////Horrible career K/BB of 3.61/1--////Spent last four seasons in five different cities: Los Angeles (severe pitcher's park), Pittsburgh (neutral park), Colorado (severe hitter's park), Milwaukee (neutral park), and Chicago Cubs (slight pitcher's park)////2004 was best of Hernandez's career according to EqA, his previous best was .284 in 2002 with Milwaukee////

5. Barry Larkin (41): 2004 Statistics- .289/.352/.419, 8 HR, 39/34 K/BB, 23.1 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .292/.356/.422, .271 EqA////Career batting line of .295/.371/.444--////Translated Career batting line of .295/.373/.462, .289 EqA////Amazing career K/BB of .870/1--////Has spent entire 19 year career in Cincinatti (moderate pitcher's park through 2003, a slight hitter's park last year in new stadium)////Believe it or not, even at his age, Larkin's recent EqA trend is going upward, (02'-.238, 03'-.260, 04'-.271)////Four of last five years, Larkin has had an injury(s) keep him out of at least part of every season (except 2002)////

6. Cristian Guzman (27): Signed with Washington (4 years-$16.8 million) 2004 Statistics- .274/.309/.384, 8 HR, 64/30 K/BB, 14.8 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .273/.312/.386, .245 EqA////Career batting line of .266/.303/.382--////Translated Career batting line of .263/.302/.383, .240 EqA////Very bad career K/BB of 2.96/1--////Has spent entire career in Minnesota (neutral park)////Can steal bases, but has a bad career SB/CS of 102/52 (66.2%)////Guzman's recent EqA trend is going upward (02'-.237, 03'-.242, 04'-.245)////

7. Orlando Cabrera (30): Signed with Angels, 4 years ($32 million) 2004 Statistics- .264/.306/.383, 10 HR, 54/39 K/BB, 13.7 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .257/.299/.378, .247 EqA////Career batting line of .268/.316/.409--////Translated Career batting line of .262/.310/.402, .249 EqA////Very good career K/BB of 1.32/1--////Can steal a base (12 in '04, career high of 25 in '02)////Career SB/CS of 97/30 (76.4%)////Spent last four seasons in Montreal (severe hitter's park), and Boston (slight hitter's park)////

8. Jose Valentin (35): Signed with Dodgers, 1 yr/$3.5 million 2004 Statistics- .216/.287/.473, 30 HR, 139/43 K/BB, 17.0 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .211/.287/.478, .255 EqA////Career batting line of .243/.321/.452--////Translated Career batting line of .240/.320/.456, .265 EqA////Career K/BB of 2.11/1--////As can be seen very clearly in his career numbers, Valentin supplies a lot of power, with very little potential to get on base////Homerun totals have gone up in last three years (02'-25, 03'-28, 04'-30)////Spent last four years in Chicago Whitesox (slight hitter's park)////AVG has gone down in each of last three years (02'-.249, 03'-.237, 04'-.216)////

9. Omar Vizquel (38): Signed with San Francisco (3 years-$12.25 million) 2004 Statistics- .291/.353/.388, 7 HR, 62/57 K/BB, 35.5 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .296/.365/.400, .271 EqA////Career batting line of .275/.341/.358--////Translated Career batting line of .281/.349/.371, .258 EqA////Spectacular career K/BB of 1.01/1--////Spent last 4 seasons, and most of career, in Cleveland (neutral park) ////Throughout career has shown ability to steal bases (19 in 2004, career high of 43 in 1997)////Career SB/CS of 318/129 (71.1%)////Besides career high of 14 HR in 2002, has never hit more than 9 HR in any season during his career////

10. Alex Gonzalez (28): Signed with Devil Rays, 1 year deal 2004 Statistics- .232/.270/ .419, 23 HR, 126/27 K/BB, 10.9 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .236/.273/.426, .238 EqA////Career batting line of .242/.287/.395--////Translated Career batting line of .244/.287/.400, .236 EqA////Riduculous career K/BB of 4.22/1--////Throughout career has shown very little ability to get on base, while showing a decent amount of power////Every year Gonzalez has had more than 500 AB, he has struck out more than 100 times////Has spent entire career in Florida (severe pitcher's park)////HR totals in last 3 healthy seasons is going up (01'-9, 03'-18, 04'-23)////

11. Ramon Martinez (32): Signed with Tigers, 1 year/$1.025 million 2004 Statistics- .246/.313/.387, 3 HR, 40/26 K/BB, 2.8 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .242/.310/.341, .234 EqA////Was a backup with the Chicago Cubs in 2004////Career batting line of .268/.330/.387--////Translated Career batting line of .272/.335/.391, .255 EqA////Very good career K/BB of 1.55/1--////Always has been a backup throughout career////Recent EqA trend is going downward (02'-.270, 03'-.253, 04'-.234)////Spent last four seasons in Chicago Cubs (slight pitcher's park), and San Francisco (severe pitcher's park)////

12. Craig Counsell (34): Signed with Diamondbacks, 2 yrs/$3.1 million 2004 Statistics- .241/.330/.315, 2 HR, 88/59 K/BB, 5.8 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .238/.325/.312, .237 EqA////Career batting line of .262/.345/.344--////Translated Career batting line of .258/.341/.340, .346 EqA////Great career K/BB of 1.14/1--////Went against his previous career numbers and stole 17 bases in 2004, and was only caught 4 times (80.1%)////Career SB/CS of 49/25 (66.2%)////Spent last four seasons in Arizona (severe hitter's park), and Milawaukee (neutral park)////

13. Desi Relaford (31): Signed with Rockies, 1 year/$950,000 2004 Statistics- .221/.296/.305, 6 HR, 56/34 K/BB, (-14.7) VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .216/.296/.299, .215 EqA////Career batting line of .246/.322/.351--////Translated Career batting line of .244/.321/.349, .242 EqA////Career K/BB of 1.67/1--////Stole 5 bases in 2004 after stealing 20 in 2003////Career SB/CS of 78/24(76.5%)////Each of last four seasons Relaford has hit either 6 or 8 HR////Recent EqA trend going downward (02'-.270, 03'-.244, 04'-.215)////Spent last four seasons in Kansas City (severe hitter's park), Seattle (severe pitcher's park), and New York Yankees (slight pitcher's park)////

14. Jose Vizcaino (37): Signed with Houston (1 year)2004 Statistics- .274/.311/.374, 3 HR, 39/20 K/BB, 6.5 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .268/.304/.369, .235 EqA////Career batting line of .272/.319/.347--////Translated Career batting line of .275/.322/.353, .238 EqA////Career K/BB of 1.95/1--////Spent last four seasons in Houston (moderate hitter's park)////Not a full time player since 1997 (568 AB)////

15. Rey Sanchez (37): Signed by Yankees, 1 year/$600,000 2004 Statistics- .246/.281/.337, 2 HR, 28/12 K/BB, (-3.5) VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .249/.288/.342, .220 EqA////Career batting line of .271/.308/.334////Translated Career batting line of .271/.310/.336, .229 EqA////Career K/BB of 2.22/1--////Career high of 6 HR (1999, KC)////Spent last 4 seasons in six different cities: Tampa Bay (neutral park), Boston (slight hitter's park), Seattle (severe pitcher's park), New York Mets (severe pitcher's park), Kansas City (severe hitter's park), and Atlanta (slight pitcher's park)////


Other notable free agents who have already signed with their former teams: Deivi Cruz (1 yr. deal with San Francisco), Neifi Perez (1 yr. deal with Chicago Cubs), and Tomas Perez (2 yr. deal with Philadelphia).

Next up, free-agent third basemen.

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

Free-Agent Second Basemen

Now for the scouting reports on Free-Agent Second Basemen.

I believe this year's crop of second basemen is pretty good.

Again, free-agents are ranked ranked by whom I believe is the best available based on age, recent performance, career numbers, translated numbers, and injuries.

***This is an article in a series of articles reviewing 2004 free agents. Any questions you may have can most likely be answered in the first article of the series: "Free-Agent Catchers"***

1. Mark Bellhorn(30): Signed with Red Sox 2004 Statistics- .264/.373/.444, 17 HR, 177/88 K/BB, 39.1 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .258/.373/.446, .285 EqA////Career batting line of .242/.354/.412--////Translated career batting line of .242/.356/.420, .272 EqA////Career K/BB of exactly 2/1--////Last 4 seasons spent in Boston (slight hitter's park), Colorado (severe hitter's park), and Chicago Cubs (slight pitcher's park)////Only has played two full seaons, and in those two seasons (2002, and 2004) his EqA's were .300 and .285////2004 represent career highs in AVG, K's, and BB's for Bellhorn////

2. Jeff Kent(37): Signed with Dodgers, 2 years (estimated $17 million) 2004 Statistics - .289/.348/.531, 27 HR, 96/49 K/BB, 52.1 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .283/.347/.524, .288 EqA////Career batting line of .289/.352/.505--////Translated career batting line of .292/.356/.517, .290 EqA////Career K/BB of 2.12/1--////Last 4 seasons spent in Houston(moderate hitter's park), and SF(severe pitcher's park)////2004 represented worst showing in AVG, OBP, and EqA for Kent since 1997////

3. Miguel Cairo(31): Signed with Mets, 1 yr/$900,000 2004 Statistics- .292/.346/.417, 6 HR, 49/18 K/BB, 22.4 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .301/.358//.434, .276 EqA////Career batting line of .273/.322/.370--////Translated career batting line of .273/.323/.395, .250 EqA////Career K/BB of 1.92/1--////Last 4 seasons spent in New York Yankees (slight pitcher's park), and St. Louis(moderate pitcher's park)////Cairo is the only second basemen whose EqA trend in the last three year is going upwards (02'-.240, 03'-241, 04'-.288)////No longer a SB threat like he was in 1998 - 2000 (98'-19, 99'-22, 00'-28), but did steal 11 bases for New York this year////2004 represented best year in Cairo's career according to EqA////

4. Placido Polanco(29): Accepted Arbitration with Phillies, 2004 Statistics - .298/.345/.441, 17 HR, 39/27 K/BB, 30.0 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .296/.342/.439, .268 EqA////Career batting line of .296/.339/.410--////Translated career batting line of .296/.338/.412, .261 EqA////Great career K/BB of 1.41/1--////Last 4 seasons spent in Philadelphia (moderate pitchers park in 01', 02', 03 ', and a slight hitter's park in 2004)////Huge surge in HR last 2 years (15 in 03', 19 in 04;), every other season in the Major Leagues, Polanco hit no more than 6 HR////Has shown an ability to steal bases (14 SB in 2003)////

5. Todd Walker(32): Signed with Cubs, 1 year ($2.5 million) 2004 Statistics- .274/.352/.468, 15 HR, 52/43 K/BB, 27.0 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .269/.350/.458, .274 EqA////Career batting line of .289/.347/.437--////Translated career batting line of .282/.393/.429, .266 EqA////Very Good Career K/BB of 1.47/1--////Spent last 4 seasons in four different cities: Boston (slight hitter's park), Colorado (severe hitter's park), Cincinatti (Neutral park), and Chicago Cubs (slight pitcher's park)////2004 represent Walker's second best season of career according to EqA (2000, Colorado = .276 EqA)////Has hit 12-15 HR every year since 2001////

6. Tony Womack(35): Signed with Yankees, 2 years ($4 million) 2004 Statistics- .307/.349/.385, 5 HR, 60/36 K/BB, 33.3 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .309/.353/.386, .266 EqA////Career batting line of .274/.319/.362--////Translated career batting line of .267/.311/.352, .244 EqA////Career K/BB of 2.06/1--////Spent last four seaons in 4 cities: St. Louis (moderate pitcher's park), Chicago Cubs (slight pitcher's park), Arizona (severe hitter's park), and Colorado (severe hitter's park)////Can steal bases--every year when healthy, Womack has stolen between 26-72 bases////2004 represented Womack's career best season according to EqA in season with 100+ AB////

7. Carlos Baerga(36): --only 85 AB's in 2004-- 2003 Statistics- .343/.396/.464, 4 HR, 20/18 K/BB, 18.8 VORP////2003 Translated Statistics- .332/.350/.458, .289 EqA////Career batting line of .292/.332/.425--////Translated career batting line of .300/.345/.459, .273 EqA////Career K/BB of 1.98/1--////Didn't play much last year due to injury////2004 EqA = .215--////Has been a backup since return to baseball in 2002////Spent last three seasons in Arizona (severe pitcher's park) and Boston (slight hitter's park)////

8. Eric Young(38): Signed with Milwaukee, 1 year ($1 million) 2004 Statistics- .288/.377/.381, 1 HR, 28/43 K/BB, 12.8 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .277/.373/.375, .266 EqA////Career batting line of .285/.361/.392--////Translated career batting line of .272/.350/.379, .262 EqA////Career K/BB of .689/1 (I haven't done the research, but that ratio has to be one of the best ever)--////Last 4 seasons spent in Texas (severe hitter's park), SF (severe pitcher's park), and Milwaukee (neutral park)////When healthy, Young has stolen between 28-74 bases every year////Career SB/CS of 450/160-(2.81/1)////

9. Roberto Alomar(37): Signed by Devil Rays, 1 year/$600,000 2004 Statistics- .263/.321/.392, 4 HR, 31/14 K/BB, 3.0 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .254/.311/.382, 211 EqA//// Career batting line of .300/.371/.443--////Translated career batting line of .308/.382/.472, .295 EqA////Spent last season in both Chicago (Whitesox), and Arizona////Spectacular career K/BB of 1.10/1--////Spent last 4 season in 4 different cities: NY Mets (severe pitcher's park), Chicago (slight hitter's park), Arizona (severe hitter's park), and Cleveland (neutral park)////No longer a SB threat////

10. Mark Grudzielanek(35): Signed with Cardinals, 1 year/$1 million 2004 Statistics - .307/.347/.432, 6 HR, 32/15 K/BB, 16.0 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .301/.341/.426, .264 EqA////Career batting line of .287/.330/.389--////Translated career batting line of .288/.330/.394, .254 EqA////Not a very good career K/BB of 2.67/1--////Injured for part of 2004////Last four seasons spent in Los Angeles(severe pitcher's park) and Chicago Cubs(slight pitcher's park)////Battled Todd Walker for playing time last year in Chicago////2004 represented second best season in career in SLG% for Grudzielanek (.436 in Los Angeles in 1999)////

11. Enrique Wilson(31): Signed minor league contract with Orioles 2004 Statistics - .213/.254/.325, 6 HR, 20/15 K/BB, (-7.9) VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .217/.266/.332, .209 EqA////Career batting line of .246/.288/.352--////Translated career batting line of .243/.290/.351, .223 EqA////Career K/BB of 1.95/1--////Last four seasons spent in New York Yankees (slight pitcher's park) and Pittsburgh (neutral park)////

12. Juan Castro(33): Signed with Minnesota (2 years-$2.05 million) 2004 Statistics- .244/.277/.378, 5 HR, 51/14 K/BB, (-1.2) VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .247/.280/.380, .228 EqA////Career batting line of .226/.269/.331--////Translated career batting line of .226/.269/.332, .210 EqA////Terrible career K/BB of 2.99/1--////Spent last four seaons in Cincinatti (neutral park)////Castro has never broken .300 in OBP in his entire career////

13. Pokey Reese(32): Signed with Mariners, 1 year/$1.2 million 2004 Statistics - .221/.271/.303, 3 HR, 60/17 K/BB, (-6.9) VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .211/.265/.297, .205 EqA////Career batting line of .248/.307/.352--////Translated career batting line of .241/.299/.342, .235 EqA////Not-so-good career K/BB of 2.35/1--////Spent last four injury-ridden seasons in Boston (slight hitter's park), Pittsburgh (neutral park), and San Diego (severe pitcher's park)////Every full healthy season (400+ AB), except 2002, Reese has hit 9 or more HR, and stolen 25 or more bases////

Next up, free-agent shortstops.

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com