Brewers/White Sox Trade

On December 12, 2004 the Chicago White Sox agreed to send 29 year-old* OF Carlos Lee to the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for 29 year-old* OF Scott Podsednik, 30 year-old* RP Luis Vizcaino, and a player to be named later.

*Age is presented as player's age in 2005.

As always, when trades happen throughout baseball, I like to write an article with a complete breakdown of all the involved players, and money aspect. And of course, I give my opinion as to whom got the better end of the deal. With this deal though, I cannot prepare a full breakdown, or give a completely informed opinion because of the "player to be named later."

Without knowing this "player to be named later" I cannot fully assess what each team is giving and receiving.

So while not being able to give a completely informed breakdown and opinion of this trade, I can give a breakdown and opinion of the deal only using the known players (Lee, Podsednik, Vizcaino).

To start my breakdown of this trade, here is a look at the 2004 and career translated statistics of each player involved:

Brewers receive:

Carlos Lee-

2004: .303/.370/.331, .299 EqA{(Un-translated statistics: 31 HR, 86/54 (1.59) K/BB, 11/3 (79%) SB/CS}

Career: .285/.341/.494, .281 EqA {Un-translated statistics: 301/255 (1.18/1) K/BB, 64/26 (71%) SB/CS}


White Sox receive:

Scott Podsednik-

2004: .233/.301/.352, .249 EqA {Un-translated statistics: 12 HR, 105/58 (1.81/1), 70/13 (84%) SB/CS}

Career: .269/.337/.394, .268 EqA {203/118 (1.72/1) K/BB, 113/23 (83%) SB/CS}

Luis Vizcaino-

2004: 3.38 ERA, 6.1 H/9--1.1 HR/9--2.6 BB/9--6.9 K/9

Career: 3.75 ERA, 6.6 H/9--1.1 HR/9--3.1 BB/9--7.4 K/9

Saying Lee is better than Podsednik at this point in each players respective careers is a fact.

If it weren't for stolen bases, Podsednik would have very little value.

Obviously in replacing Lee with Podsednik the White Sox are hoping to get the 2003 version of Podsednik, who looked like so:(translated statistics) .314/.378/.441, .290 EqA--un-translated stats of 9 HR, 43/10 (81%) SB/CS.

If Podsednik does put up those numbers, the White Sox still fall short in replacing Lee with Podsednik. When Vizcaino is added though, combined with a 2003 version of Podsednik, then this trade doesn't end up so bad.

Vizcaino is not a great reliever by any means. He is a reliever who has a tendency to give up HR's, and walk batters, but strikes out a good amount of them also. Combine Vizcaino with a 2003 version of Podsednik, then, this would be a good trade for the White Sox.

But the fact is, one shouldn't count on a return to form by Podsednik. He should be expected to probably "split the difference" between 2004 and 2003. After crunching the numbers, this "split the difference" season for Podsednik would look like so:

.270/.336/.394, .250 EqA (57/12 SB/CS)

It is not that hard to see that this predicted "split the difference" season by Podesednik wouldn't even match Lee's worst season of 1999 (.289/.308/.470, .262 EqA).

Combining a predicted "split the difference" season by Podsednik, with Luis Vizcaino to replace Lee is a horrible deal for the White Sox, while being a great deal for the Brewers.


Taking a look at the money aspect of this trade will tell us why the White Sox made this deal.

Carlos Lee is signed through 2006, and is due to make $8 million in 2005, while being guaranteed $500,000 in 2006 with an $8.5 million option.

Podsednik is due to make, and this is not a joke, $550,000 in 2005, and $1.9 million in 2006.

Vizcaino is arbitration-eligible in 2005. To make an estimate on Vizcaino's arbitration-based salary, I will take Vizcaino's 2004 salary of $550,000 into account, and factor in a raise based on the current state of the market, and his 2004 performance. The figure I will use for Vizcaino's 2005 salary is $700,000.

Now, in the next two years, assuming the White Sox would pick-up Lee's 2006 option, the White Sox would have had to pay Lee $17 million. With Lee gone now, and Podsednik and Vizcaino on the team, the White Sox only have to pay those two players a combined $3.15 million through 2006 (Vizcaino through 2005, Podesednik through 2006).

In the next two years, again assuming the White Sox would have picked up Lee's 2006 option, the White Sox saved $13.85 million ($17 million minus $3.15 million).

If the White Sox declined Lee's 2006 option, they would only have to pay him $500,000 in 2006, ending up paying him a total of $8.5 million after 2006. In this scenario the White Sox would save only $5.35 ($8.5 million minus $3.15 million). Still great savings.

On the other end, with the Brewers picking up Lee and his hefty contract, they add, assuming they do pick-up Lee's 2006 option, $13.85 million ($17 million minus $3.15 million) to their payroll for the next two seasons.

The Brewers do not have to pick up that option though, and if they don't, they will only be due to pay Lee $8 million in 2005 and only $550,000 in 06.

Using this scenario, the Brewers would only be adding $5.35 million ($8.5 million minus $3.15 million) to their payroll for the next two seasons. This would be only a $2.2 million ($5.35 million minus $3.15 million) increase from what they would have owed Podsednik and Vizcaino in 05' and 06'.

After looking at both the talent of the players, and the money aspects of this trade, I believe the Brewers get the better end of this deal.

While the White Sox save a huge amount of money, they are losing a great player in Lee who is only going to be 29 next season. Even though they are getting another 28 year-old OF in Podsednik, he is clearly not on the same level as Lee.

Even with the possibility of Podsednik repeating his 2003 performance, and combining that with the addition of Luis Vizcaino--in my opinion "evening" up the deal--losing Carlos Lee to take this chance was not a chance worth taking for the White Sox.

As for the Brewers, they are adding a great player in the prime of his career, to their lineup in 2004, for only $2.2 million. This is a great deal.

As for all the extra money saved by the White Sox, they may use that money to make a great signing of a top free-agent, and therefore, giving this trade some credibility. If they do not make a great signing though, then it is clear that the White Sox dropped the ball in this deal.

As a baseball fan, and a human being, I have to believe that White Sox GM Ken Williams does, indeed, have a plan for the money his team saved in this deal. We are yet to see what he plans to do with it.


Remember, there is a player to be named left in this deal, and for all I and anybody else knows, this player could be the next Barry Bonds.

So, as I said in the beginning of this article, this is an incomplete analysis of this trade. The analysis in this article is strictly based on the exchange of Carlos Lee for Scott Podsednik and Luis Vizcaino.

I ask that you take this analysis for what it is worth; incomplete.

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.