Serious Baseball

Serious Baseball: Win Value Project, Carlos Beltran

2008-04-20T12:49:00.005-04:00

Now that I don’t have to introduce the system again, as I did that in my first two articles in this series, these Win Value write-ups will be much shorter.

Let’s figure the Win Value of Carlos Beltran.

Beltran is the opposite of Lance Berkman (my last subject) in that he adds to his total value by fielding his position, and running the bases well.

If you recall, Berkman, while a very good hitter produced at a level below what his salary called for, and probably will in the future due to this aforementioned lack of agility in the field and on the bases

Beltran is a much better value…

It was in the midst of his 2004 season with the Kansas City Royals when Beltran was traded to the Houston Astros where he went on to star for the them in the post-season and assured himself of a large contract that off-season—his first as a free agent.

The New York Mets ended up being the team to give him that large contract when, in January 2005, Beltran signed a contract with them worth a total of $119 million over 7 years. The total value of the contract includes an $11 million signing bonus, of which $7 million was paid to Beltran in 2005, and $2 million paid in both 2006 and 2007. These signing bonus amounts are included his salary structure presented below:

2005: $17 MM
2006: $14 MM
2007: $14 MM
2008: $18.5 MM
2009: $18.5 MM
2010: $18.5 MM
2011: $18.5 MM

Actually, $8.5 million of Beltran’s salaries in the 2008-2011 seasons are being deferred and paid to him after the contract expires. Even though the Mets aren’t paying him that amount in those seasons, he is being paid that amount for those seasons so we’ll use the full $18.5 million salaries for the analysis.

Here is a chart showing Beltran’s season stats and win value for each season he’s played under the new contract:

Beltran was a disappointment in 2005 only providing 3.56 wins while his salary called for 5.05. He made up for that in 2006, though, by providing a whopping 8.7 wins while his salary called for 3.76.

While he didn’t perform as well in 2007 as he did in 2006 he still provided great value to the Mets providing 4.67 wins while only being paid for 3.41.

For the years remaining on his contract Beltran is being paid for the following:

2008: 4.11 Wins
2009: 3.74 Wins
2010: 3.40 Wins
2011: 3.09 Wins

Can he achieve these win totals?

According to The Book Blog a player in his decline phase should be assumed to deteriorate by .5 wins per year. Beltran, being 31 this season is already in this phase, so subtracting .5 wins in each future season leaves him the following projected win values (amount of wins he’s being paid for in parentheses):

2008: 4.17 (4.11)
2009: 3.67 (3.74)
2010: 3.17 (3.40)
2011: 2.67 (3.09)

It seems Beltran will be right around his perceived value for the next two years, while being slightly overpaid in the last two.

A player with Beltran’s skill set (good fielder, good base runner, good patience at the plate) has a great chance to “beat the age curve” by a tad and I think for the remainder of the contract, Carlos Beltran will be “spot on” if not better than what he’s being paid for.

It’s funny because at the time of this signing many people thought the Mets drastically overpaid for Beltran. Now, it seems he is actually underpaid!

The entire value of the Beltran’s contract calls for him to provide 26.56 total wins to be “worthy” of his salary. Using those projected total win numbers from above (for 2008-2011) and adding them to his actual total win values from 2005-2007 would put Beltran at 30.61 total wins at contact’s end. Meaning he ends up providing about 4 wins more than he was paid for.

Unless something goes drastically wrong in the next four seasons (injury?) the New York Mets definitely deserve a “tip of the hat” for this signing.

I hope those who read this article will email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com, or post a request for me on one of the message boards that I hope this article reaches and request that I figure out another players win value. I will be more than happy to do so.

Win Value Project: Lance Berkman

2008-04-13T11:33:00.003-04:00

Back to the Win Value Project…

I have to admit it, I love this idea, but it’s not mine in its originality. Analysts and writers far smarter than I, such as Tom Tango and Dave Studeman, have done, and are still doing projects just like this. But my study was vastly different than theirs (and inferior) in that it used different statistics, and different monetary figures.

Well, after a reception to my first article that can only be called tepid at best, I decided to get to work on overhauling this puppy.

One of the emails I received in response to that first article “linked” me to Tom Tango’s “The Book” Blog where I learned valuable lessons on how to figure out a player’s yearly W.A.R (Wins above replacement), found each player’s fielding runs as figured by Mitchel Lichtman’s UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) system, and found more accurate dollar figures for my project.

Just as importantly, there were studies done there to show why the stats I was using in the Varitek article (VORP, and FRAR) were wrong.

I’m not going to lie; I delved right into the blog and started using Tom Tango’s numbers “digit-for-digit.” I did, though, have to calculate W.A.R. on my own. I am assuming my products are correct, but if they are not, I beg of any reader to email me and put me in my place.

I have also changed my concept of a team having its “own price” for a marginal victory. This is how I stated this theory in the original article:

“To do this I used a spreadsheet to figure out what each team paid for a marginal win in any given year. By using each teams total payroll, subtracting the league minimum and dividing that by the number of marginal wins they accrued (number of wins over 45) I was able to derive how valuable, in monetary terms, a marginal win was to each team…”

“One advantage any team has when signing a free agent is that the money they agree to pay a free agent in, say 2005, always remains the same. Regardless of inflation, or the rise in price of a marginal win, if a team paid player X $10 million dollars for two years in the off-season of 2005, the only way they had of measuring what they were paying for was their previous seasons “Price per Marginal win.”

This concept is silly in that it ignores the law of inflation, and fails to recognize that all teams, no matter how cheap, buy players in the same market. Just because the Kansas City Royals paid approximately $2.7 million per marginal win in 2004, doesn’t mean that is the number they should use to evaluate a free agent that off-season. They have to value him in a way close to what other teams would.

So what is this value? Based on numbers, again shown in The Book Blog, the price per marginal win after the 2006 season was $4 million. This price goes up 10% in each successive year due to inflation and that is why this past off-season that number had risen to $4.4 million.

This time around I will be using completely different dollar figures, and completely different stats, except for Equivalent Base running Runs (EqBrr) since, to date, there are no other publicly available base running metrics.

After adding each players W.A.R., UZR Fielding Runs, and EqBrr I came up with a number that represented how many marginal wins any player was worth in any given season.

Then I just took that player’s marginal salary, divided it by the price per marginal win, and saw if that player “earned” what he was being paid.

Let’s get to it.

Over on Talk-Baseball.com one of the readers of my first article asked me to figure the win value for Lance Berkman. While it took me quite a bit of time (as I was overhauling the system), here is that breakdown.

In the 2004 off-season Berkman was entering his sixth year of service and would have been a free agent after the season. He had asked for an $11 million annual salary for the 2005 season in arbitration, while the Houston Astros proposed $10 million. They settled on $10.5 million.

Then, in March of 2005 Berkman agreed to a six year $85 million dollar deal. The structure of the contract paid Berkman the already agreed upon $10.5 million in 2005, $14.5 million each season through 2010, and a guaranteed $2 million as part of a team option for 2011. Since his 2005 salary was already settled, the Astros, in all actuality, signed Berkman to a 5 year (2006-2010) $72.5 million deal (number excludes $2 MM guaranteed in 2011 as part of a team option).

It is important to note that Berkman was not a free agent at the time of the deal, so we shouldn’t use the full value of a “Free Agent marginal win” to figure his win value. According to The Book blog—again—estimates of what dollar figures to use for pre-free agency players are as so (based on years of service time):

20% - 2.x to 3 years less a day

40% - 3 to 4 years less a day

60% - 4 to 5 years less a day

80% - 5 to 6 years less a day

This means we would use 20% of the free agent marginal win price if a player signs a contract when he has between 2-3 years of service time, and so on down the line.

Since Berkman wasn’t a free agent at the time of the signing, according to the above chart the Astros are presumed to have paid him 80% of the free agent price per marginal win. This is what we will use for the analysis.

Assuming the rate of inflation is 10%, if I “backtrack” from the 2006 off-season (when the price per marginal win for a free agent was $4 million) I can figure out that the price per marginal win for a free agent rose as follows (figures are rounded to nearest thousandth dollar):

2004 off-season (when Berkman signed): $3.306 MM
2005 off-season (Berkman’s first year under new contract): $3.636 MM

and will continue to rise as so…

2007 off-season (this past off season) $4.4 MM
2008 off-season: $4.84 MM
2009 off-season (last off-season Berkman will be under contract): $5.324 MM

Here is a chart showing Berkman’s marginal win value in each season since (and including) 2006:

***Wins are figured by dividing runs by 10.5 (except for with WAR). This is different from the number I used in the Varitek article; 10. Again, this number comes from The Book Blog. ***

Berkman’s fielding and base running definitely leave a lot to be desired. Overall, though, due to his hitting, he is a net positive to the Astros.

Using the derived price per marginal victory (80% of free agent price) for each season and dividing it by Berkman’s marginal salary shows that Berkman hasn’t completely lived up to his end of the deal, thus far.

In 2006 the Astros paid him for 4.87 marginal wins and he provided 4.86...right on the money. Last season, though, Berkman had one of his worst years as a professional and only posted 3.20 marginal wins while being paid for 4.41.

Going forward the Astros will be paying Berkman to produce 4.01 marginal wins in 2008, 3.64 in 2009, and 3.31 in 2010.

Assuming that 2008 is Berkman’s age-32 season, it’s hard to believe he is going to post those types of numbers in his future seasons.

For what it's worth, I have Berkman as posting only 2.18 marginal wins in 2005. So if you take that into consideration you are looking at a player who has only surpassed the 3.5 marginal win level once in the last three seasons, and is over 30 years of age.

It seems that through 2010 Lance Berkman will be nothing but an all-hit, no-field, overpaid, lumbering first baseman.

I hope those who read this article will email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com, or post a request for me on one of the message boards that I hope this article reaches and request that I figure out another players win value. I will be more than happy to do so.Thank you

Win Value Project

2008-03-19T19:47:00.004-04:00

I am the first to admit that the game of baseball is not played on computers or in a spreadsheet. There are, without question, factors in the game that cannot be measured by statistics. There can be no value assigned to the way a catcher handles a pitching staff, or the way a certain player can lead his team.

But, with all that said, the facets of the game that can be measured have been assigned values by statisticians and fans alike that, I believe, are very accurate. The leader in this field of “assigning value to measurable facets of the game” is Baseball Prospectus.

Their revolutionary stat “VORP,” standing for Value Over Replacement Player, measures how many offensive runs a certain player created more than a “replacement level” player, in any one season, would have that played his same position assuming the same number of plate appearances.

While I believe many agree with the concept and accuracy of VORP, other stats created by Baseball Prospectus to measure non-offensive areas of the game, such as fielding and base running, aren’t so universally agreed upon.

But, while the arguments about the accuracy and validity of these metrics will rage forever, they are more accurate than anything I can come up with, so I will be using Baseball Prospectus’ fielding metric FRAR (Fielding Runs Above Replacement) and their base running statistic EqBRR (Equivalent Base running Runs), combined with VORP to come up with a total amount of runs a player created over a season for this project.

I’ve titled this little endeavor my “Win Value Project.” It’s really not that complicated. The goal was/is to figure how much each team in baseball currently pays its players for a marginal win, and then finding out how productive that player must be to “live up” to the contract/salary his team is paying him.

To do this I used a spreadsheet to figure out what each team paid for a marginal win in any given year. By using each teams total payroll, subtracting the league minimum and dividing that by the number of marginal wins they accrued (number of wins over 45) I was able to derive how valuable, in monetary terms, a marginal win was to each team.

I wasn’t that creative in coming up with a title for that final amount, thus I titled it “Price per Marginal Victory.” I believe no questions are left unanswered with that title.

On a separate page of my geeky spreadsheet I figured out, using VORP, FRAR, and EqBRR, the total amount of runs that a player produced in any given season.

All of the runs measured by the above metrics represent “marginal” runs—runs created beyond what a replacement player would have (except for EqBRR which represents how many base running runs a player created more than an average base runner. I decided to use this because I think defining a “replacement level” base runner is an impossible task, while defining an average base runner, while not easy, is not as hard), and therefore, correlate with each teams marginal wins.

Knowing this I could, theoretically, figure out what any team was expecting from a free agent it signed in an off-season. Using that teams previous season’s “Price per Marginal Win” and applying it to a free agents marginal salary (their yearly salary minus the league minimum), what they were expecting from “free agent X” became evident.

One advantage any team has when signing a free agent is that the money they agree to pay a free agent in, say 2005, always remains the same. Regardless of inflation, or the rise in price of a marginal win, if a team paid player X $10 million dollars for two years in the off-season of 2005, the only way they had of measuring what they were paying for was their previous seasons “Price per Marginal win.”

So, in the end, if team X paid $2 million per Marginal Win in 2004, that player signed in 2005 will be expected to produce about 4.8 wins over those two years—even if the price per marginal win goes up through the duration of his contract ($10 million minus the league minimum divided by the teams previous season Price per marginal win).

Wins are measured by the total number of marginal runs a player created divided by ten as the general concept of “ten runs equal one win” is one that is mostly agreed on.

Let’s plug a player in and see not only if he has, thus far, lived up to his contract, but what he must do in future seasons to live up to the remaining years of his deal.

Jason Varitek will be my example for this article.

Now, as stated in the beginning of the article, there are many things a player does to help his team win games that cannot be measured by statistics, and Varitek does this on a daily basis.

But, it will still be fun to see if a) Varitek has lived up to the first three seasons of the four-year, forty million contract he signed in the off-season of 2005, and b) what he must do in 2008 to “live up” to the last year of the contract.

First, we must know the essentials:

1) For the 2004 season the Red Sox paid $2,175,443.40 for each marginal victory (53). That number is what we will use to determine how many marginal wins they expect from Varitek over the length of his contract.
2) The structure of Varitek’s four year, $40 million contract pays him $9 million each season, plus a $4 million signing bonus in 2005—the first year of his contract. Knowing this we will use $13 million as Varitek’s base salary in 2005, and $9 million in each season thereafter.

Here is a chart showing Varitek’s offensive, defensive, and base running contributions, using the above-mentioned metrics, in each season of his current contract:

It’s just simple division now.

In 2005 Varitek’s marginal salary was $12,684,000.00 ($13 million minus major league minimum of $316,000). This means the Red Sox were paying him for 5.8 wins ($12,684,000.00 divided by $2,175,443.40). As you can see, Varitek was more than worth his salary in 2005.

Using the same method and adjusting for the changing league minimum salary, Varitek was/will be expected to produce 4 wins in each of the remaining three years of his contract.

In 2005 Varitek fell short of expectations due to injury, but in 2007 he rebounded nicely and rewarded the Red Sox by providing more than one full win over what was expected.

Now, the only question left would be, what does Varitek have to do in 2008 to “live up” to his contract? Knowing that he has been worth 13.19 wins thus far, and subtracting that from the 17.7 that the Red Sox are expecting him to produce based on his salary ($38,577,000.00 in marginal salary divided by $2,175,443.40 for the price of a marginal victory) throughout the contract, we know the answer to that question is that he needs to produce 4.5 wins.

It seems that if Varitek is healthy in 2008, he shouldn’t have a problem producing that number.

Based on his contributions in the catching game, his leadership, and steady presence though, I think it’d be fair to say that Varitek has already “lived up” to his contract.

That’s only my opinion though, I’m sure some out there don’t believe there is any inherent value in Varitek’s game-calling skills and truly believe that if he doesn’t post the numbers he is capable of in 2008 his contract will have been a bad one.

But, this is my article, and my place to vent and I believe the Red Sox made a very sound investment after their World Championship in 2004.

Will they give Varitek another contact after his current one expires after this season? And if so, how much will they be willing to pay a catcher in his late-thirties?

I hope this is just the first of a series of articles in my “Win Value Project.” I hope those who read this article will email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com, or post a request for me on one of the message boards that I hope this article reaches and request that I figure out another players win value. I will be more than happy to do so.

Thank you

The Smart Yankees

2008-01-29T19:36:00.000-05:00

What a perfect follow-up to my last article stating discord with the Rockies long-term signing of Troy Tulowitzki!

If you read that article you are aware that I believe the Rockies should have waited to sign Tulowitzki to a six-year contract. He should have had to—at least--show he can be successful at the Major League level again before the Rockies committed so many years.

Now the New York Yankees step in and show the right way to sign players.

Who would have thought that the Yankees would be the team setting the example of how to develop and sign youngsters?!

With rumored negotiations between the Bombers and their 25 year old second baseman Robinson Cano resulting in a possible contract anywhere from a four year/$30 million to six year/$56 million deal, we now have a template of how to “be patient” and use a player’s cheapest (pre-arbitration) years as an evaluation period to help make more-informed decisions.

Cano’s “evaluation period” showed that he, indeed, is worth a commitment.

Called up in 2005 Cano has been the New York Yankees full-time second baseman since then and has accumulated the following statistics (1720 plate appearances):

.314/.347/.490, 4.24 BB%, 12.03 K%

Those are very good numbers overall, but coming from a second baseman, they are great numbers. Combine this with the fact that Cano is a very good fielder and the Yankees have, truly, found a gem.

While some may look at those statistics above and say Cano doesn’t walk enough (2007 AL mean BB% of 8.54) and therefore isn’t a good bet to stay productive, I disagree.

There is no such thing as “not walking enough.” If a player’s strength is making contact, a lower walk rate doesn’t hurt him if he uses that strength and strikes out at a lower rate than average (2007 AL mean K% of 17.31).

Cano’s K% shows that he can put the ball in play, but his batting average shows that he is very good at collecting hits on those balls in play.

One thing that some may worry some critics about Cano is his career BABIP of .337 (compared to league average around .300). This does not worry me, and it obviously doesn’t bother the Yankees. The sample size (1720 plate appearances) that is Cano’s career shows that he does has some, innate, ability to collect more hits than average when he puts the ball in play.

Cano has not been lucky. The career he has posted to this point is legit, and any worry of a severe downturn in his production over the length of his new contract should be minimal.

The Yankees used the advantages given to them by the system—unlike the Rockies. They used Cano’s pre-arb years as a “minimum wage” way of evaluating his true talent and skill level, and then made a decision. And while there are no guarantees of Cano’s continued productivity, this was a better-informed decision and holds a better chance of success than the one the Rockies made just a few days ago.

Did the Rockies unnecessarily rush?

2008-01-25T18:12:00.000-05:00

What’s the hurry?

Why did the Rockies feel the need to sign Troy Tulowitzki to a six year deal now—when he has a pre-arbitration year left? (Structure of contract can be found here.)

Why wouldn’t they just let him play out 2008—at minimum wage—and prove 2007 wasn’t a fluke before committing for the next six years?

Now, I know Tulowitzki was great last year; both offensively and defensively. I also know he had a good season in the minor leagues in 2006, and I do understand that he projects to be a very good player in the future.

Both the scouts and the numbers agree. But scouts, and numbers, are often wrong…especially in baseball.

It was just two short years ago in 2006 that Tulowitzki batted .291/.370/.473 in the Texas League (AA) over 484 plate appearances. Good numbers indeed, but not great. They do get better, though, when you consider his great BB/K numbers from that season. His BB% of 9.5 was a tad better than the average for the Texas League (9.16), but his K% of 14.67 was much better than the mean (18%). ***

The kid definitely showed patience and a good ability to make contact. He also posted a very good ISO (.182) for that level—Texas League average of .150—showing power was part of his game as well.

It seemed Tulowitzki was on the path to stardom. All he would have to do is post great numbers in AAA in 2007 and he’d be ready. Instead, after batting .321/.379/.434 in 53 Spring Training AB’s before the 2007 season, the Rockies decided to have “Tulo” forego a season in AAA and inserted him into their every day lineup.

This was definitely the wrong move, right? After all, “Tulo” would only be 22 in 2007, and as noted before, while he was very good in the minors, it was only one year, and it’s not like he was extraordinary.

Anyhow, the rest is history, and apparently it was the right move. Tulowitzki went onto lead the Rockies to the World Series in 2007 while batting .291/.359/.479, smashing 24 HR’s, and fielding the shortstop position wonderfully.

Should those two seasons (one at the double A level) be enough to make the Rockies commit to him for six seasons—especially when he has a pre-arb year left?

It shouldn’t be.

When you consider that Tulowitzki was aided by an abnormally high BABIP in 2007 (.336 vs. NL average of .301) you’d have to assume he was somewhat lucky. Shouldn’t the Rockies want to see if this high BABIP was a “repeatable” skill?

Also, you’d think the Rockies would want to see if Tulowitzki’s high K% would fall.

By striking out 130 times in 2007--19.2% of his plate appearances--Tulowitzki tied Alfonso Soriano for 11th in the NL in that category. While we know strikeouts aren’t deemed as bad as they was 30 years ago, I’d think it’d be in the Rockies best interest to see if Tulowitzki can lower that number before committing.

Also, even though this deal make Tulowitzki’s home Coors Field for the foreseeable future, wouldn’t you think the Rockies would be a little worried about his horrible road/home splits from 2007:

Home: .326/.392/.568, 15 HR
Road: .256/.327/.393, 9 HR

Shouldn’t the Rockies want “Tulo” to prove he isn’t just another player who, outside of Coors Field, isn’t even average?

These are all things that should have prevented the Rockies from signing Tulowitzki long term when they could have—at least—used 2008 as an extremely cost effective way of deeming his 2007 season as fluke, or a barometer of his true skill.

Now don’t get me wrong. I hope this deal works out. I really do. I hope Tulowitzki becomes the next Derek Jeter, and leads Colorado to the post-season for many years to come.

The Rockies didn’t use the advantages that are granted to them—three pre-arb, “minimum wage” years—by the system; and I’m just scared it may come back and bite them.

***Texas League averages from Minorleaguesplits.com.

Frank Bundy III

Carlos Pena Going Forward

2008-01-21T10:37:00.000-05:00

Draw more walks, hit more home runs.

Sounds like a pretty good formula for success, does it not? After all, that is the exact formula Carlos Pena used in 2007 to win the American League Comeback Player of the Year award.

The funny thing about that formula is that it is so simple. Usually, when looking at a season where a player drastically improved you can point to several things he improved upon that led to his newfound success.

There are usually many factors that come together to produce a players breakout/career year. For example, you might find that a player drew more walks, struck out less, hit more line drives, had a higher batting average on balls in play, and hit more ground balls to contribute to his improvement.

Not with Carlos Pena though. He only did two things significantly better to improve…and what an improvement it was!

In 2007 he set career highs in HR (46), BA (.282), OBP (.411), SLG (.627), OPS (1.038), Hits (138), Doubles (29), RBI (121), and BB (103).

What led to all of this improvement? Go back and read the first line of this article.

Let’s take a look at some stats of Pena’s through 2006, compared with those same stats in the 2007 season:

PA/HR: 22.37 thru 2006, 13.3 in 2007

Here is an obvious, large improvement. Pena hit a HR once every 22 plate appearances through 2006, then exploded to hit one every 13 plate appearances in 2007.

PA/K: 3.83 thru 2006, 4.31 in 2007

Yeah, Pena stuck out a little less in 2007, but not by a significant amount. He pretty much struck out once every four plate appearances through 2006, and in 2007.

PA/BB: 9.21 thru 2006, 5.94 in 2007

Here’s another significant improvement in 2007. After only walking once every 9 plate appearances through 2006, he walked once every six in 2007.

GB%: 38.11 thru 2006, 37.46 in 2007

In 2007 Pena hit a tad less ground balls, but not by much at all.

FB%: 42.66 thru 2006, 44.51 in 2007

Obviously, in 2007 Pena turned his ground balls into fly balls. Again, though, this is not a significant difference from the rest of his career coming into the season.

LD%: 19.23 thru 2006, 18.03 in 2007

He actually did a little worse in this category in 2007. This one is close to being a significant, but not enough to call it an extreme difference.

HR/FB: 17.62 thru 2006, 29.11 in 2007

We can call this an extreme improvement. Even though Pena didn’t hit many more fly balls overall in 2007, many more of them became home runs.

BABIP: .295 thru 2006, .305 in 2007

One of the biggest indicators of luck doesn’t show a high degree of fortune for Pena in 2007. While his BABIP was higher than his career average coming into the season, it wasn’t that much higher, and was exactly the league average in 2007.

Pena only did two things significantly better in 2007 to become the beast he was last year. But is this success something he can maintain long-term? Or even throughout the duration of the new three year, $24 million contract he just signed with the Tampa Bay Rays?

One way too look at this would be to just simply look at his BABIP and say, “Well, last year wasn’t based on luck, so he can stay this productive.”

While it’s a fact that Pena “legitimately” posted the numbers he did last year without the aid of a high BABIP, I think decline is in his future.

Pitchers that make it to the Major League level aren’t stupid. And the employees of the teams they pitch for, that prepare scouting reports on Carlos Pena, aren’t either. They know that the key to Pena’s breakout season was the abnormally high amount of walks he had drawn.

While this is somewhat a “skill” shown by Pena—to draw walks--it depends highly on the pitcher throwing the balls. A batter can be as adept as ever at taking balls, but that won’t mean anything if the pitcher isn’t throwing them.

Put simply, if pitchers throw more strikes to Pena in the future, he’s going to be less productive (when I say strikes I, obviously, don’t mean meatballs down the heart of the plate). Now, I know that sounds ridiculous, but Pena’s career batting average shows he isn’t great at collecting hits.

While he did do a good job hitting strikes last season, as shown by his .282 batting average, his career number coming into 2007 was .243. That .243 accumulated over 1924 plate appearances says more than the .282 he posted in 612 plate appearances last season.

Carlos Pena is not a good hitter for average. He may be better than he was before 2007, but he is still a “high walk, low average” hitter; who strikes out way too much.

While there are some hitters out there who have had a successful career using the “high walk, low average” attack, most of them can at least post a league average batting average (.269 in 2007). Pena is not this kind of hitter.

When pitchers throw him more strikes in the future, Pena will be forced to swing at more pitches, most likely resulting in less contact, which in turn will lead to less walks.

Just by the mere fact of getting more strikes to hit, Pena will not be able to use half of his “formula for success in 2007;” draw more walks, hit more HR’s.

As for the other half of the formula, hitting more HR’s, this is an area Pena will suffer in for the obvious reason that he cannot sustain the type of success he had in 2007, again. I know this isn’t “sabermetric” enough of a reason, but Carlos Pena will hit less home runs going forward simply because he is not Alex Rodriguez, David Ortiz, or Barry Bonds—or even close to those guys.

Does this bring him back down to the .243/.332/.459 hitter he was before 2007? Quite possibly; and it also doesn’t help that next year will be his age-30 season.

Pena will be a better hitter in 2008 because he has shown he can have success in the league, but, I wouldn’t use the numbers he posted in 2007 as a starting point for improvement. I would use his pre-2007 numbers, and post a small improvement from there.

Frank Bundy III

The Playoff Predictor: The NL Wild Card

2005-08-21T11:06:00.000-04:00

Are you up late at night trying to figure out which team is going to win the NL Wild Card race? Are you losing sleep because you just can’t figure out whether the Philadelphia Phillies, Houston Astros, New York Mets, Washington Nationals, or the Florida Marlins will make the post-season?

Well I’m here to stop your sleepless nights. I can tell you exactly who is going to win the NL Wild Card race.

How am I going to do this?

By using my brand new “Playoff Predictor.”

What does the “Playoff Predictor” do?

The “Playoff Predictor” is a machine that runs all playoff-contending teams through a three-layer filter to figure which of the contending teams really is the best team, and which one has the easiest road to victory.

As a note, before I start the “Playoff-Predictor,” even though there is definitely a chance for the Chicago Cubs, and the Milwaukee Brewers to win the Wild Card, for this analysis the only teams I inputted into the machine were ones whose record is currently above .500

This leaves us with the above-mentioned Philadelphia Phillies, Florida Marlins, Houston Astros, Washington Nationals, and the New York Mets.

Before we start, here is a look at the current NL Wild Card Standings as of 8/19/05:

Philadelphia: 65-57; 0 GB
Houston: 64-57; ½ GB
Washington: 64-57; ½ GB
Florida: 63-57; 1 GB
New York: 61-59; 3 GB

The first filter that the “Playoff Predictor” runs is done by looking at each team’s adjusted record in the “Current Adjusted Team Standings” over Baseball Prospectus.

***To read more about Current Adjusted Team Standings see my last article. A team’s adjusted Win/Loss record is a team record based solely upon how my runs a team should score and allow based on theirs and their opponent’s batting line, then adjusted for strength of schedule. The adjusted record is one that is based solely on how good or bad a team has performed…therefore removing luck from the equation. ***

After looking at these adjusted records and rounding each teams win/loss total to the nearest whole number, the new “adjusted” NL Wild Card standings look like so:

New York: 65-55
Houston: 64-57
Florida: 63-57
Philadelphia: 63-59
Washington: 57-64

As you can see, these standings are quite different from the actual standings, and tell who has actually performed the best of the teams in the hunt: the New York Mets, but not by much.

The top four teams are fairly close, but the fifth team, the Washington Nationals, is too far behind to actually be considered.

The “Predictor” has chosen to eliminate them based on the fact that their actual record is 7 games above .500, but their adjusted record is 7 games below .500, which is a sign of turbulent times a coming. Expect the Nationals to drop out of this race quicker than Anna Nicole Smith’s weight.

Now the “Predictor” has narrowed the contenders to Philadelphia, New York, Florida, and Houston.

To run the next filter the “Predictor” looks at contender’s team stats ranked amongst the NL, and then re-ranks them amongst themselves to see who is better and worse at what.

First, here is each team’s NL rank in offense (runs scored), pitching (team ERA), and defense (DIPS%), this season:

Team--------Offense------Pitching------Defense
Philadelphia-------4------------9--------------8
New York---------6------------6--------------6
Florida------------7------------4--------------9
Houston----------12-----------2--------------4

As stated earlier the “Predictor” uses these league rankings to make predictions by re-ranking these teams amongst themselves. The best team in a category will receive a rank of “4,” and the worst receivess a “1.” Then, it adds each team’s rankings together and the team that ends up with the most “ranking points” is declared the best (this is exactly how rotisserie baseball standings are figured).

It is important to note that the “Predictor” favors pitching when forecasting teams’ futures because it adheres by the old adage “pitching wins.”

The way that the “Predictor” weights the pitching category is to multiply each team’s rank in that area by 1.5. This will make it so that having better pitching is more valuable than having a better offense; something that the “Predictor” stands by.

After awarding “rank points” to each team, and completing the calculations, here are the results (the more points, the better the team):

Houston: 11 points
New York: 9 Points
Florida: 7.5 Points
Philadelphia: 7.5 Points

According to the pitching-weighted value system, the best team of the contenders is the Houston Astros. Even though they are the best though, no team had such a bad total value that they was eliminated, as the Nationals were earlier. While all the teams will continue to be analyzed through the next filter, the “Machine” will favor the Astros, and all close calls will go their way.

Breaking down each teams remaining schedule runs the final filter.

A breakdown of how many series each team has left versus sub-.500 teams and above .500 teams; as well as how many home and road series each team has left are used to determine which team has the easiest road to success.

Before the raw numbers are presented though, here is each teams home and road records thus far this season; so you can understand why it would be favorable for a particular team to have more or less home series:

Team------Home Record=====Road Record
Phillies--------38-27=============27-30
Astros---------40-21=============24-36
Mets-----------38-24=============23-35
Florida---------35-27=============28-30

As you can see, each team plays very well at home and struggles on the road. The Marlins, and Phillies though, are almost .500 on the road, while the Mets and Astros struggle badly on the road. With those numbers now fresh in your memory here is the breakdown of each team’s remaining schedule:

Team---Opp. Above-.500---Opp. Sub-.500---Home/Road Series
Phillies-------9---------------------4---------------5/8
Astros--------4---------------------9---------------6/7
Mets---------10--------------------3----------------6/7
Florida-------10--------------------3----------------6/7

You don’t have to be a genius to see that the Houston Astros have a very easy road to conclude the season, while each of the other contenders has a very tough road. This unquestionably gives a very large edge to Houston.

As far as Home/Road Series remaining, even though Houston has more road series left than home series, they shouldn’t suffer badly from this because they don’t have any more road series remaining than the other contending teams; in essence, neutralizing the negative effect that this would cause.

So now that the third and final filter has been run, the “Playoff Predictor” has analyzed enough information to figure out exactly who is going to win the NL Wild Card.

Here is the printout from the “Predictor:”

I don’t even know why you asked this question. This is one of the easiest questions I’ve ever answered. It’s fairly obvious that the team with the best pitching, easiest remaining schedule, and just barely comes in second place after adjusting their record will win the race.

The team that will win the NL Wild Card race is the Houston Astros.

Next time, please come to me with a challenging question.

Thank you for reading,

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@athomeplate.com.

The Magglio Ordonez Show

2005-02-04T22:10:00.000-05:00

As the off season dwindles down towards the beginning of spring training almost all big-name free agents have been signed by one team or another. All except one, Magglio Ordonez.

For those of you unaware of who Magglio Ordonez is, he was the Chicago White Sox starting right fielder for the past 7 seasons (had been with White Sox for 8 seasons total). For those seven years Ordonez was, undoubtedly, baseball’s best kept secret. While getting very little publicity and fanfare, here are Ordonez's statistics through his career up to this point:

3807 AB, 1167 H, 240 2B, 15 3B, 187 HR, 703 RBI, 82 SB, 38 CS, 333 BB, 431 K, 34 HBP, 35 SF

.307 AVG/.364 OBP/.525 SLG--.889 OPS

***See Magglio Ordonez Stat Profile at Baseball Prospectus:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/ordonma01.shtml***

That, my friends, is a superstar.

With Ordonez having just turned 31 years old on January 28, he still has, at least, a few dominant years left in him.

At least those were the beliefs before May 24, 2004 when Ordonez suffered a severe knee and calf injury, which made him miss most of the remainder of the 2004 season.

At first the injury was believed to be one that was so bad that he could also miss some of the 2005 season. Later though, it has since been rumored that Ordonez fully healed some time in the month of December.

As you can tell, those two beliefs are polar opposites of one another, which is the main reason Ordonez isn’t already signed by a team. With the statistics he put up before the injury, he was worth top-dollar--no question.

My, oh my, how things change.

Even though it seems some teams are starting to believe that Ordonez is fully healthy, as shown by the 5 year/$55 million deal reportedly offered to him by the Detroit Tigers; it is obvious that Ordonez is a huge injury-risk for 2005 and beyond.

As much as Ordonez’s agent, Scott Boras, will try to have everybody believe his client is fully healthy and ready-to-go, it cannot be overlooked that a player of Ordonez’s quality is still unsigned in February.

If there were a “mid-level” risk involved with Ordonez’s injury problem, some team out there would have snatched him up quicker than you and say “Home Run by Ordonez.” But there haven’t been any suitors.

Now I don’t know about you, but that tells me something:

Ordonez is "high-level" risk.

With that, I wish the best of luck to whomever signs this superstar with bad timing.

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

Also, check out Serious Baseball at AtHomePlate.com, a baseball column authored by me, and my colleague, Matthew Souders.

Regardless of how it is obtained, Success = Credibility

2005-01-30T22:58:00.000-05:00

I know that I said that this blog was moving to At Home Plate.com, and it still is. But I couldn't just stop writing here; I love it too much. I love the comments and emails I get, and I appreciate everyone that reads my articles.

So, with that being said, there will be much less articles posted at this address than before, but there will still be articles posted here for reading.

So here is my first article here since the “death” of this blog.

It's reincarnation!!!

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If you are looking for statistics, projections, and the like in this article, as I normally write about, well I am sorry. This article will contain none of those.

This article is written because of a segment I listened to on ESPN’s radio show, “The Herd,” hosted by Colin Cowherd. The segment basically was about how success breeds credibility…regardless of how that success is obtained. Cowherd went through examples of people who are deemed “credible” by peers and critics alike, because of the success that they “backed into.”

This got me thinking about a situation like that in baseball. It didn’t take me long to think of the perfect example of a person in baseball being deemed “credible/great” because of the success he has had, even though he “backed into,” that success.

Let’s go back to the 2003 playoff’s to start the story of this “credible” person. In the 2003 playoffs the Boston Red Sox lost the American League Championship Series to the New York Yankees. It is widely believed that the reason that they lost this series was because in Game 7, then-manager Grady Little left starting pitcher Pedro Martinez in the game much too long. Because of this, Martinez wore down, became more hittable, and eventually gave up the tying run to the Yankees after his team was up by 3 runs. Then, in extra innings, long after Martinez was yanked, the Red Sox lost the game, and the series.

Because the responsibility for this loss was placed squarely on the shoulders of Little, he was eventually fired. After that, the Red Sox were left with a great team, with no manager.

So the search for one began.

In the midst of the search, the Red Sox made a trade for a pitcher named Curt Schilling. Curt Schilling was brought in to be the “missing link” from that 2003 team; the piece that was missing from the Red Sox’s World Series Championship puzzle. Since Schilling was such a big commodity, he also carried some weight on the way the team was run. Knowing this, Schilling being the opportunist that he is, decided to recommend one of his former managers that he liked to the Red Sox as a candidate for their managerial opening.

After a few weeks of negotiating, the manager that Schilling had recommended was hired. Now the Red Sox had a new ace for their rotation, and a new manager who they thought wouldn’t make the same mistake as Little did the season before. Every thing was perfect for a World Series Championship in 2004.

It is hard to believe that the manager the Red Sox chose was more than anything but a favor to their new star pitcher because it was only a few years ago that he was fired from his former managerial job with the Philadelphia Phillies because of an inability to lead his team.

While he was in Philadelphia, fans slashed the tires on his car because of how terrible he was. This manager was truly lucky to have had his prior experiences with Schilling in Philadelphia. Little did he know that those experiences would lead him to future “credibility” in the area of managing a baseball team.

Now we all know how the 2004 season played out for the Boston Red Sox. They won the World Series for the first time since 1918. When a team does this, the manager is the person given most credit for his teams success, and rightfully so. So, with that holding true, this newly hired manager was given that credit, and was deemed “credible” because of the Red Sox’s success.

Now, this same manager who was run out of Philadelphia just a few years ago, was being deemed a “great” manager. Is this fair? Isn’t it obvious that he just happened to be available when a great team, one that was already predicted to win 95-100 games before he was hired, had a vacancy? Isn’t it obvious that he was there because of the recommendation of Curt Schilling? Isn’t it obvious that he “backed into” the success he just had, and subsequently, the “credibility” he now holds?

If you haven’t guessed it already, the now “credible” person I am talking about is Boston Red Sox manager Terry Francona.

If you ask anybody—go ahead and try—they will tell you that Terry Francona is a great manager.

Why do they answer this way? Well, just look, he just led a title-deprived team to its first World Series Championship in 86 years, that’s why.

Well folks, it is of utmost importance to look at how success was obtained by a person, before deeming them “great/credible” in their field.

It is clear that Francona is a good manager. But great? Credible? Not in my opinion. This is a guy among the ranks of Ringo Starr and Kevin Federline when it comes to luck.

He was in the right place at the right time.

Now, I don’t want to take anything away from the Red Sox, what they did was phenomenal. But, honestly, how many people out there think that they could have lead the 2004 Red Sox to the World Series Title? I know I do.

This example is just to show that “success” is not an easy thing to accomplish, and the label of success shouldn’t be so easily handed out as it was with Francona.

Let me use this example:

Lets say that tomorrow Sports Illustrated decides to hire a random website baseball writer to write a weekly baseball column in their magazine. They make the call, and the writer they end up hiring is “yours truly.”

After you read my first column, you would assume that I have succeeded in the field of writing because, after all, I am writing for the biggest sports magazine in the world.

Because of this success that you assume I have had, my writing becomes a lot more credible than what it is now, doesn’t it? When, in fact, I am just as credible as I am today.

I would have backed into success, and would have been deemed as a “credible” writer because of it. Clearly, this is not fair to the writers who worked their butts off for the credibility they now hold.

This effortless grant of credibility is not fair to the people who did work hard to achieve success in their field. They are the ones who deserve the credibility. Not the lucky ones who just backed into success.

So next time you are about to label someone a success, and deem them with the credibility that comes with it, take a minute and research how that success was obtained.

Thank you for reading. If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

***I am a die-hard Red Sox fan, and a Francona-lover.***

Serious Baseball now at "At Home Plate.com"

2005-01-23T11:54:00.000-05:00

Serious Baseball will no longer be published here at this address. This web log will slowly but surely be absorbed by At Home Plate.com.

New articles will continue to be written by both Matthew Souders and I under the new Serious Baseball column there.

Please visit Serious Baseball at At Home Plate.com com to view our introduction articles.

Thank you to everybody who did visit the site, and I hope you continue to read "Serious Baseball" at At Home Plate.com.

All the Fuss Over Carlos Beltran--Ballpark Adjusted (Edit)

2005-01-19T19:37:00.000-05:00

You may have noticed that one of my previous articles, “All the Fuss Over Carlos Beltran-Ballpark Adjusted,” was pulled off the site yesterday. This was due to some errors I made in calculating the projected seasons for Beltran. It was pulled because I did not want an article containing false information on the site for any longer that it was. I apologize for the error, and have corrected it. The article you are reading is actually the correct version of “All the Fuss Over Carlos Beltran. Ballpark-Adjusted”

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If you recall, in my prior article “All the Fuss Over Carlos Beltran,” I used a “split-the-difference” method to project a “probable, split-the-difference, and best-possible” 2005 season for Carlos Beltran.

At the time of the article, Beltran was yet to be signed, and was still looking for a home. The Houston Astros, New York Yankees, and New York Mets were all reportedly close to signing the free agent.

Shortly after the publishing of the article Beltran signed a seven-year, $119 million contract with the New York Mets.

With this signing, Beltran’s new home ballpark becomes the very pitcher-friendly Shea Stadium in New York City. With this information, I can now project Beltran’s 2005 season, adjusted for Shea Stadium—something I was unable to do before.

If you recall, I had Beltran continuing his current upward trend into 2005.

As I did in the original article, I will not bore you with a step-by-step detailed explanation of how I calculated Beltran’s projected numbers, I will just present them.

***To read more about the seasons I project, and why I project them, please read earlier article “All the Fuss Over Carlos Beltran.”***

The first thing I must do before projecting ballpark-adjusted seasons though, is to ballpark-adjust Beltran’s previous three seasons (because those are the seasons used to determine the projections).

Here are Beltran’s previous three seasons, ballpark-adjusted:

Stats presented as so: AB, AVG/OBP/SLG-OPS, (AVG/HR/RBI), SB/CS, K/BB

2002 (Kansas City Royals—Kauffman Stadium): 617 AB--.253/.331/.446-.777 OPS--(.253/22/97)—35/7 (83.3%) SB/CS—135/71 (1.90/1) K/BB

2003 (Kansas City Royals—Kauffman Stadium): 514 AB--.295/.380/.506-.886 OPS--(.295/25/93)—41/4 (91.1%) SB/CS—81/72 (1.13/1) K/BB

2004 (Kansas City Royals—Kauffman Stadium, Houston Astros—Minute Maid Park): 602 AB--.268/.368/.511-.878 OPS--(.268/32/105)—42/3 (93.3%) SB/CS—101/92 (1.10/1) K/BB

If you recall, without park adjustments, 2004 was Beltran’s best season in the previous three seasons (according to OPS); and was the season used to project 2005 by splitting the differences between that season and his previous three year averages. When park factors are included though, 2003 becomes his best season in that span (according to OPS).

This being the case, Beltran’s projected 2005 season would normally be determined by the differences between that season (2003) and his previous three-year averages; but since he only had 521 AB’s in 03’, due to injury, I will still use 2004 as his best season in that span. I do this because 2004 is a better representation of a “best season,” because Beltran wasn’t injured, and had an AB total closer to his career average.

Here is the “probable, split-the-difference, and best-possible” seasons that I projected in the original article. Underneath each of them will be Beltran’s ballpark adjusted season of the same name.

Stats presented as so: AB, AVG/OBP/SLG-OPS, (AVG/HR/RBI), SB/CS, K/BB

Split the difference

2005: 606 AB--.260/.368/.559-.927 OPS--(.260/42/105)--43/2 (93.3%) SB/CS--99/99 (1.00/1) K/BB

2005 (Park Adjusted): 603 AB--.262/.361/.508--.869 OPS—(.262/33/104)—43/2 (95.5%) SB/CS—97/97 (1.00/1) K/BB

Best Possible

2005: 615 AB--.251/.369/.576-.944 OPS--(.251/46/105)--43/1 (97.7%) SB/CS--95/108 (.880/1) K/BB

2005 (Park Adjusted): 605 AB--.259/.365/.525--.890 OPS--(.259/36/105)—43/1 (97.7%) SB/CS—91/105 (.867/1) K/BB

Probable

2005: 610 AB--.256/.368/.568-.936 OPS--(.256/44/105)--43/2 (93.3%) SB/CS--97/104 (.933/1) K/BB

2005 (Park adjusted): 604 AB--.261/.363/.517--.880 OPS—(.261/34/105), 43/2 (93.3%) SB/CS, 94/101 (.931/1) K/BB

As you can see, in each season, Shea Stadium lowered Beltran’s statistics.

Large differentials between statistics in ballpark-neutral seasons, and ballpark-adjusted seasons are due to the fact that Beltran’s three previous seasons (02’, 03’, and 04’) were played in parks that favor hitters. Because of this, his actual statistics become lower when adjusted. Factor that in with his move to a ballpark (Shea Stadium) that heavily favors pitchers, and the difference between the “too-large” numbers he put up in the hitter’s parks, and the “too-small” numbers he would put up in a pitcher’s park becomes noticeably large—like in the cases above.

That being said, and hoping it wasn’t too confusing, the numbers put up by Beltran in 2005, should be expected to be along the lines of his ballpark-adjusted “probable” projected 2005 (as shown above).

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

Blue Jays Acquire Hillenbrand

2005-01-17T11:31:00.000-05:00

On January 12, 2005 the Arizona Diamondbacks traded 29-year-old 1B/3B Shea Hillenbrand to the Blue Jays in exchange for 25 year old pitching prospect Adam Peterson.

With the Diamondbacks recent acquisitions of 3B Troy Glaus and RF Shawn Green, the only position left for Hillenbrand to play, if he were to stay in Arizona, was 1B. The Diamondbacks decided to go with a cheaper alternative at that position, and chose the 24-year-old Chad Tracy, making Hillenbrand expendable.

On the other end of the trade, the Blue Jays were in need of a first basemen because their former first basemen, Carlos Delgado, was not offered arbitration, leaving a huge hole at that position.

Since the Blue Jays already have a fulltime third basemen in newly acquired 31-year-old Corey Koskie, Hillenbrand will play either 1B or DH. He will split time between these two positions with Blue Jays former third basemen Eric Hinske, who is also forced to change positions because of the acquisition of Koskie.

Here is a look at the players both teams are receiving in the deal. Translated and actual statistics will be presented.

***For Peterson, only actual statistics will be presented, because translated ones were not available.***

Blue Jays receive:

Shea Hillenbrand

(Stats presented as: AB, AVG/OBP/SLG—OPS, HR, RBI, K/BB)

2004 (Actual Stats): 562 AB, .310/.348/.464--.812 OPS, 15 HR, 80 RBI, 49/24 K/BB

2004 (Translated Stats): .299/.338/.447--.269 EqA

Career (Actual Stats): 2179 AB, .288/.322/.448--.770 OPS, 65 HR, 274 RBI, 275/86 K/BB

Career (Translated Stats): .286/.323/.449--.263 EqA

Diamondbacks receive:

Adam Peterson:

2004 (AA): 28 IP, 2.54 ERA, 6.4 H/9—0.3 HR/9—3.2 BB/9—12.1 K/9

2004 (AAA): 21 IP, 12.86 ERA, 16.3 H/9—2.6 HR/9—6.9 BB/9—8.1 K/9

2004 (MLB): 3 IP, 16.87 ERA, 7 Hits—1 HR—3 BB—2 K

Career (Minor League): 140 IP, 4.23 ERA, 8.4 H/9—0.8 HR/9—3.5 BB/9—8.5 K/9

Is this a joke? The Blue Jays get a very solid player in exchange for a below average minor-leaguer, who has gotten worse every level he has gone up? Did the Blue Jays really rip the Diamondbacks off this bad?

Let’s look at the money side of the deal before answering the preceding questions.

Peterson, as a minor leaguer, will make the league minimum. Hillenbrand, on the other hand, is due for arbitration in 2005. Knowing that he made $2.6 million in 2005, and accounting for the good season he had in 2004, I’m going to guess that arbitration grants him around $4 million in 2005.

After seeing the financial aspect of this deal, the Diamondbacks still got robbed. I do understand that Hillenbrand had to go (see position scenarios above), and that the Diamondbacks save a good amount of money in this deal, but they could have gotten much better player(s) in exchange for him than Peterson.

Peterson (25) is past the age where he is considered a prospect, doesn’t have very good career numbers throughout his minor league career, and has played his worst baseball at the highest levels.

On top of all this, paying only $4 million for Hillenbrand is a pretty good bargain for the Blue Jays.

Blue Jays general manager J.P. Riccardi deserves a huge “pat on the back” for completing this deal. He saw a team that had no room for a good player not making a huge amount of money, and then went and got him for an underachieving, older, minor leaguer.

Way to go Blue Jays.

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any question, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

Diamondbacks acquire Shawn Green

2005-01-11T21:06:00.000-05:00

On January 10, 2005 the Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks completed the long awaited trade sending $10 million, and 32-year-old RF Shawn Green to the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for four minor leaguers.

In order for this trade to occur, Green had to waive the “no-trade” clause in his contract with the Dodgers. Green was only willing to do this if the Diamondbacks came up with a contract extension he would be content with. After about a week of negotiating, and many rumors of the trade not happening, Green and the Diamondbacks did finally agree on an extension.

With the new contract extension included, Green’s salaries for each of the next three years now look like so:

2005- $10.5 million

2006- $8 million

2007- $9.5 million

2008- $10 million option with $2 million dollar buyout clause.

Not including the option year of 2008, Green’s new contract essentially pays him $30 million over the next three seasons.

In exchange for Green and the $10 million that Los Angeles sent with him, Arizona sent the Dodgers 20 year old minor league catcher Dioner Navarro, and minor league RHP’s William Jaurez (23 years old), Danny Muegge (23 years old), and Beltran Perez (23 years old).

Here is a look at each players 2004 and career, translated and actual stats:

***For the minor league players involved, only actual statistics will be presented because translated statistics were unavailable***

Diamondbacks receive:

Shawn Green:

2004:
Actual Statistics: .266/.352/.459, 811 OPS, 28 HR, 86 RBI, 114/72 (1.58/1) K/BB
Translated Statistics: .270/.354/.470, .280 EqA

Career:
Actual Statistics: .282/.357/.508, .865 OPS, 281 HR, 885 RBI, 1076/600 (1.79/1) K/BB
Translated Statistics: .288/.360/.524, .295 EqA

Dodgers receive:

Dioner Navarro:

2004 (AA Trenton, AAA Columbus):
.263 AVG/.341 OBP/.366 SLG-.707 OPS, 4 HR , 45 RBI, 61/47 (1.30/1) K/BB Career (Minor Leagues):
.277 AVG/.350 OBP/.402 SLG--.752 OPS, 21 HR, 168 RBI, 198/138 (1.43/1) K/BB

William Juarez

2004 (A South Bend, AA El Paso):
6-8 W-L, 3.71 ERA, 121.3 IP, 8.8 H/9—0.6 HR/9—2.1 BB/9—8.5 K/9

Career (Minor League):
27-19 W-L, 3.07 ERA, 408.0 IP, 9.1 H/9—0.4 HR/9—2.2 BB/9—7.6 K/9

Beltran Perez

2004 (AA El Paso):
2-6 W-L, 4.41 ERA, 104.0 IP, 8.8 H/9—0.9 HR/9—4.0 BB/9—6.7 K/9

Career (Minor League):
31/22 W-L, 3.98 ERA, 480.0 IP, 9.0 H/9—0.7 HR/9—2.9 BB/9—8.1 K/9

Danny Muegge

2004 (A South Bend):
14-4 W-L, 3.12 ERA, 153.0 IP, 8.8 H/9—0.9 HR/9—2.5 BB/9—6.1 K/9

Career (Minor League):
16-7 W-L, 3.32 ERA, 176.0 IP, 9.2 H/9—0.9 HR/9—2.5 BB/9—6.4 K/9

As discussed in my earlier article “Yankees acquire Big Unit,” Navarro is a very good prospect at catcher.

A look at William Jaurez’s number show that he, himself, is also a very good prospect.

Perez, on the other hand, struggled last season. Although he has put up good numbers throughout his minor league career, it may be a concern that he stuggled at his highest current level of competition, AA El Paso.

Muegge, in essentially one minor league season, has put up very good numbers.

All four of the prospects that the Diamondbacks gave up in this deal, show signs of having success in the future…which is all any team (Dodgers) can ask for out of any minor leaguer.

Since the four minor leaguers essentially do not count against the Dodgers major league payroll, and will be making league-minimum salaries anyways, they are essentially not adding any money to the Dodgers total payroll; but to fully look at the financial aspects of this deal for the Dodgers, Shawn Green’s old contract with them must be looked at.

Under that contract, Green was signed through 2005, and was due to make $16 million that year. After looking at that figure, paying $10 million to the Diamondbacks to complete this deal doesn’t look so bad. The Dodgers actually save $6 million by completing this deal ($16 million owed to Green minus $10 million paid to Arizona).

The financial analysis on the Diamondbacks side show an addition of $30 million (Green’s salry) to their payroll through 2007. Factoring in the $10 million received from the Dodgers to help pay part of Green’s salary though, will show that the Diamondbacks will actually pay less than $30 million to Green throughout his stay there.

Subtracting those figures from eachother will show that the Diamondbacks are only paying $20 million for Green’s serives through 2007 ($30 million minus $10 million). This equals out to $6.66 million a year ($20 million divided by 3 years).

The role the Green will be asked to fill for the Diamondbacks is obvious. He will be asked to do what he has his entire career, be the everyday right fielder.

On the other end of the trade, the Dodgers already have their replacement for Green in RF. The younger, newly signed, 29-year-old J.D. Drew

After looking at the financial aspects, as well as the statistics of each involved player, I will say that the Dodgers got the better end of this deal. I say this though because a deeper look at Green’s statistics in each of the past three seasons will show that he has declined in many major offensive categories:

(AVG/OBP/SLG)

2002: .285/.385/.558

2003: .280/.355/.460

2004: .266/.352/.459

Even though $6.66 million per year for a player with Green’s career statistics is a bargain, it really isnt that great of a bargain when one sees the decline he is in.

As for the Dodgers, on top of saving $6 million, which they can use to help pay newly acquired RF J.D. Drew, they get four good prospects.

The best thing about this deal for the Dodgers though, is that with every team (including the Diamondbacks) knowing that the Dodgers were eager to part with Green because of the acquistion of Drew; you’d think the Dodgers would be so eager to trade him away that they’d get a bad package in return for him, but they didn’t. The Dodgers stayed calm, and negotiated themselves into a very good deal.

Good job Paul Depodesta (GM of the Dodgers)

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

Yankees Acquire Big Unit

2005-01-08T14:57:00.000-05:00

Pending a physical, the New York Yankees and Arizona Diamondbacks recently have completed the biggest trade of the 2004 off-season. In the deal, the Diamondbacks will send the 41 year old, future Hall of Fame left handed pitcher Randy Johnson to the Yankees in exchange for 28 year old right handed pitcher Javier Vazquez, 23 year old left handed pitcher Brad Halsey, 20 year old minor league catcher Dioner Navarro, and $9 million.

Here is a look at each players translated, and actual career and 2004 statistics:

***For Halsey and Navarro only actual Stats will be presented since no translated stats were available***

Yankees receive:

Randy Johnson:

2004:
Actual Stats: 16-14 W-L, 2.60 ERA, 245.7 IP, 177 Hits (6.5 H/9), 18 HR (0.7 HR/9), 44 BB (1.6 BB/9), 290 K (10.6 K/9)

Translated Stats: 2.30 ERA, 5.7 H/9--0.5 HR/9--1.2 BB/9--9.5 K/9

Career:
Actual Stats: 246-128 W-L, 3.07 ERA, 3368.0 IP, 2612 Hits (7.0 H/9), 301 HR (0.8 HR/9), 1302 BB (3.5 BB/9), 4161 K (11.1 K/9)

Translated Stats: 2.79 ERA, 6.3 H/9--0.7 HR/9—2.9 BB/9—10.8 K/9

Diamondbacks receive:

Javier Vazquez:

2004
Actual Stats: 14-10 W-L, 4.91 ERA, 198.0 IP, 195 Hits (8.9 H/9), 33 HR (1.5 HR/9), 60 BB (2.7 BB/9), 150 K (8.8 K/9)

Translated Stats: 4.01 ERA, 7.3 H/9—1.2 HR/9—2.5 BB/9—6.1 K/9

Career:
Actual Stats: 78-78 W-L, 4.26 ERA, 1427.0 IP, 1430 Hits (9.0 H/9), 188 HR (1.2 HR/9), 391 BB (2.5 BB/9), 1226 K (7.7 K/9)

Translated Stats: 3.58 ERA, 7.8 H/9—1.0 HR/9—1.9 BB/9—7.0 K/9

Brad Halsey:

2004: (Yankees)
Actual Stats: 1-3 W-L, 6.47 ERA, 32.0 IP, 41 Hits (11.5 H/9), 4 HR (1.1 HR/9), 14 BB (3.9 BB/9), 25 K (7.0 K/9)

Career: (Minor League)
Actual Stats: 34-14 W-L, 3.26 ERA, 375.0 IP, 386 Hits (9.3 H/9), 15 HR (0.4 HR/9), 90 BB (2.2 BB/9), 296 K (7.1 K/9)

Dioner Navarro:

2004
Actual Stats (AA Trenton, AAA Columbus): .263 AVG/.341 OBP/.366 SLG-.707 OPS, 4 HR (45 RBI), 61/47 (1.30/1) K/BB

Career (Minor Leagues): .277 AVG/.350 OBP/.402 SLG--.752 OPS, 21 HR (168 RBI), 198/138 (1.43/1) K/BB

The Diamondbacks are getting a pitcher in Vazquez, who besides last season, his first in New York, has been nothing short of great throughout his career. They are also getting some very good prospects in Halsey and Navarro. While Halsey did, indeed, struggle in his brief stint with the Yankees last season, he has been great throughout his minor league career. Navarro, while not a power hitter, shows great patience at the plate (see K/BB ratio) and also has shown an above-average ability to get on base (see OBP).

On the other side of the deal, the Yankees are getting the man they have coveted since the trade deadline during the 2004 season, Randy Johnson. There is really nothing I can say to exemplify how great Johnson is, just look at the numbers. The Yankees are without question receiving a first-ballot Hall of Famer, and one of the best pitchers of all time. The only question mark that comes with Johnson would be his age (41).

Although Johnson is 41 and carries an injury risk with him, strictly because of his age, those risks were downgraded substantially last season when Johnson did not show any lasting effects from his injury in 2003 that sidelined him for half of the season. With Johnson being so dominant throughout his injury-free 2004 campaign, he proved to all of his critics—including the Yankees-- that injuries are a very small factor to consider when dealing with the future hall-of-famer.

A look at the money side of the deal will show that money actually means nothing to the Yankees.

To complete this deal the Yankees had to agree on a contract extension with Johnson, which they did; for 2 years at $32 million.

Combining the new extension with the $16 million due to Johnson in 2005 under his contract with the Diamondbacks, a contract the Yankees now own, Johnson is essentially being signed to a 3 year, $48 million deal by the Yankees.

As I clued in on earlier, the Yankees did not save any money in this deal. Here is a look at the contracts and salaries of the players they gave to Arizona.

Javier Vazquez is signed through 2007 and is due to make $10.5 million in 2005, $11.5 million in 2006, and $12.5 million in 2007, for a total salary of $34.5 million owed to Vazquez through 2007.

Both Halsey and Navarro are currently making league-minimum minor league salaries. For the sake of comparing and contrasting the figures, I will not include their minimal salaries when figuring out money saved or lost by both teams.

Subtracting Vazquez’s contract from Johnson’s will show that the Yankees are adding $13.5 million dollars to their payroll ($48 million minus $34.5 million). But, one must not forget that the Yankees also agreed to give the Diamondbacks $9 million in this trade. After adding that figure to the difference between the contracts, the Yankees end up adding a total of $22.5 million dollars to their payroll ($9 million plus $13.5 million). Which, in turn, would also mean that the Diamondbacks are gaining an extra $22.5 million for their team.

The role that Johnson will be asked to fill with they Yankees is pretty clear; pitch them to a World Series championship.

As for the roles that the newly acquired Diamondbacks will be asked to fill, they are not as simple.

Vazquez is already involved in trade rumors that would send him out of Arizona. If he weren’t traded though, he would be expected to pitch every fifth day at the top of the rotation, and return to the greatness that he experienced earlier in his career in the Montreal Expos organization. After all, he gets paid like a superstar and that is exactly what Arizona would expect out of him.

Brad Halsey will be given every chance to win a spot in the back of the rotation for the Diamondbacks in 2005.

As of the moment, Navarro is probably never going to play a game in the Diamondbacks organization. It is expected that he will be dealt to the Los Angeles Dodgers in a deal for RF Shawn Green. The Diamondbacks are able to trade away the young prospect because their depth at catcher runs three deep. For the 2005 season, 25 year old Koyie Hill, 23 year old Chris Snyder, and 34 year old Kelly Stinett will all be vying for the starting catching job in Arizona; meaning Navarro would be stepping into an already-crowded situation.

As for the question, “Who got the better end of the deal?” Normally, when a team saves $22.5 million, gains a pitcher who has been dominant throughout his entire career except one year (Vazquez), and gets two good prospects (Halsey, and Navarro), I would say this team gets the better end of the deal. This is not the case with this deal though, simply because of Randy Johnson.

There are few pitchers in the history of the game who have been, or are as dominant as Randy Johnson. He is one of only a few players who can carry a team to a World Series title, all by his lonesome. Paying $22.5 million for 3 years of Randy Johnson’s services is worth the money because the only thing that matters in baseball, or any sport for that matter, is winning; and Johnson gives the Yankees a better chance to do just that than any other time in recent memory.

Even after reviewing the dominance of Johnson, I call this deal a draw. The package that the Diamondbacks received for Johnson is nothing short of excellent. Plus, the players gained in the deal are all under 30 years of age to boot.

This deal clearly makes the Yankees the favorite to win the World Series again. As for the Diamondbacks, this deal is not only a very large step towards improvement in the future, but also a deal that will help them win now.

This was a great deal by both sides.

Thank you for reading,

Frank Bundy III

All the Fuss Over Carlos Beltran

2005-01-05T18:39:00.000-05:00

Throughout this topsy-turvy off-season in 2004 there have been many trades and free agent signings. All of these though, will be paltry compared the signing of Carlos Beltran, the most sought-after free agent in 2004.

When this signing will happen, nobody knows. There are guesses that it will happen somewhere around January 8, 2004 because that is the last day that the Houston Astros (Beltran's former team) can resign him. Those are just guesses though.

There is no doubt though, that it will be a huge deal, worth a huge amount of money, when Beltran finally does sign.

Why is Carlos Beltran the most sought-after free agent? Why will he make the most money of all the free agents in 2004? Because teams project Beltran to have nothing but monster years in the future, and many of them. After all, he is only 27 years old--the age when most players, if capable, start their runs of dominance--and their statistics get better.

If this age theory does work out, and Beltran only gets better in the years to come, he would indeed be worth a very high salary.

Here are Beltran's statistics in every year of his career in which he accumulated 300+ AB's:

Stats presented as so: AB, AVG/OBP/SLG-OPS, (AVG/HR/RBI), SB/CS, K/BB

1999 KC- 663 AB--.297/.337/.454-.791--(.293/22/108)--27/8 SB/CS--123/46 K/BB

2000 KC- 372 AB--.247/.309/.366-.675--(.247/7/44)--10/0 SB/CS--69/35 K/BB

2001 KC- 617 AB--.306/.362/.514-.876--(.306/24/101)--31/1 SB/CS--120/52 K/BB

2002 KC- 637 AB--.273/.346/.501-.847--(.273/29/105)--35/7 SB/CS--135/71 K/BB

2003 KC- 521 AB--.307/.389/.522-.911--(.307/26/100)--46/4 SB/CS--81/72 K/BB

2004 KC/HOU- 599 AB--.267/.367/.548-.915--(.267/38/104)--42/3 SB/CS--101/92 K/BB

Career- 3467 AB, .284/.350/.490-.843--(.284/146/569)--192/23 (89.3%) SB/CS--641/371 (1.73/1) K/BB

As you can see, in terms of OPS, in the last three years Beltran is doing nothing but getting better.

The big question though, is "How will Beltran perform in 2005?" Well, obviously that question has no answer, all we can do is make projections as to what he'd do--and that is what I am here to do.

I will project Beltran's 2005 season using his statistics last season (his career-best according to OPS), and comparing them to his averages each of his past three seasons and "splitting the differences."

I will not bore anybody with the math involved in coming up with this "split the difference" season. I will just present the results.

Carlos Beltran (Split the difference)

2005: 606 AB--.260/.368/.559-.927 OPS--(.260/42/105)--43/2 (93.3%) SB/CS--99/99 (1.00/1) K/BB

That is a pretty awesome season, and shows that Beltran will, in fact, to continue to improve (according to OPS). If Beltran had that season for any team in 2005, I am sure the team would be more than happy to pay his enormous salary that year.

Since Beltran is only 27 though, it is entirely possible, as is for any player--but more so for a 27 year old--that he will not just have a "split the difference" season; he could have an ever better season than that.

With this possibility being ever so relevant for Beltran, I will project a 2005 season, not using the 50% difference I used in his "split the difference" season, but I will use a 120% difference (actually not a "difference" since it would be adding on to his stats) to project a "best-possible" season for Beltran in 2005.

Carlos Beltran (Best-possible)

2005: 615 AB--.251/.369/.576-.944 OPS--(.251/46/105)--43/1 (97.7%) SB/CS--95/108 (.880/1) K/BB

This season is even better than his "split the difference" season.

While this "best-possible" season is entirely possible, it is not probable. It is very probable though that Beltran WILL improve though. Since this is very probable I will now "split the difference" between Beltran's "split the difference" season, and his "best possible" season to come up with Beltran's "probable season."

Carlos Beltran (Probable)

2005: 610 AB, .256/.368/.568-.936 OPS--(.256/44/105)--43/2 (93.3%) SB/CS--97/104 (.933/1) K/BB

That, by the numbers, is a probable season for Carlos Beltran in 2005.

Is he worth the amount of money he potentially will make throughout his new contract ($200 million over 10 years)? No. The only reason he is not worth that amount of money though, is because, nobody, no matter how good they are, is worth $20 million a year.

Is he worth being paid the highest salary in baseball? That is debatable. He IS worth a salary that ranks among the highest in the league though--just look at the numbers.

All the fuss over Carlos Beltran is absolutely worth it. He is a young, talented player that has shown nothing but a great ability to play, and dominate, the game; and whose upside is still plentiful.

Thank you for reading,

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

Upcoming Article

2005-01-04T21:28:00.000-05:00

There has not been an article posted on "Serious Baseball" for so long (5 days--tomorrow) because I have been working on an article which would present my own personal ballpark factors, and the factors aren't working out.

Since the factors are not working out, there hasn't been an article posted about the factors because it would make no sense.

I will continue to work on these ballpark factors though--and hope to post that article someday.

In the meantime, it will be business as usual here at "Serious Baseball." I will continue to put a new article out every 3-4 days.

If there is ever a delay on an article, leading to an extended period of time between articles, I will post a notice explaining the reason for the delay--as I have here.

I apologize for the delay.

The next article, which will be posted either tomorrow (Jan. 5, 2005) or the next day (Jan. 6, 2005), and will be about free-agent Carlos Beltran. The article will include projections for his 2005 season, and also opinions about the possible amount of money he may or may not sign for.

Thank you for reading,

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

Free Agent Left Handed Relief Pitchers

2004-12-31T19:04:00.000-05:00

Here is the final segment of “Free-Agent Scouting Reports”—“Left Handed Relief Pitchers.”

As always, players are ranked by whom I believe is the best available.

For anybody that reads this list and wonders why Chris Hammond is so low when in his last three seasons his ERA read as follows:

2002-0.95
2003-2.86
2004-2.68;

Well the answer, in short, is that even though he has been great recently, his career numbers do not stack up well against the other free agents on the list, and, his translated ERA is actually, believe it or not, in a downward trend (see numbers below).

Also, the reason Gabe White is ranked so high, after a miserable season in 2004, is because his career number are great when compared to the other free agents.

1. Steve Kline (32): Signed with Orioles, 2 years ($5.5 million) 2004 Statistics: 1.79 ERA, 50.3 IP, 37 Hits, 3 HR, 17 BB, 35 K, 19.9 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics: 2.18 ERA, 7.0 H/9—0.5 HR/9—2.8 BB/9—5.3 K/9--////Career Statistics: 3.30 ERA, 523.7 IP, 479 Hits, 44 HR, 221 BB, 407 K////Translated career statistics: 2.94 ERA, 7.7 H/9—0.7 HR/9—3.4 BB/9—6.1 K/9--////Career K/BB of 1.84/1--////In each of the past three season’s Kline’s translated H/9 (02’-8.7, 03’-7.6, 04’-7.0) has gotten better////Only counting seasons in which Kline has pitched at least 50 innings, 2004 represented a career-best ERA (1.79), Hits allowed (37), BB (17), and a tie for career-best HR allowed (3) for Kline, while representing NO career-worst////Spent last four seasons in St. Louis (moderate pitcher’s park)////

2. Eddie Guardado (34): Option picked-up by Mariners 2004 Statistics: 2.78 ERA, 45.3 IP, 31 Hits, 8 HR, 14 BB, 45 K, 17.6 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics: 2.48 ERA, 5.1 H/9—1.2 HR/9—2.7 BB/9—7.8 K/9--////Career Statistics: 4.40 ERA, 743.0 IP, 693 Hits, 107 HR, 282 BB, 650 K////Translated career statistics: 3.36 ERA, 6.9 H/9—1.0 HR/9—2.8 BB/9—7.8 K/9--////Career K/BB of 2.30/1--////Missed part of 2004 season because of injury////In each of the past three seasons, Gaurdado’s IP (02’-67.7, 03’-65.3, 04’-45.3) has decreased; since the decline between 02’ and 03’ isn’t that great, I will use Gaurdado’s “counting” stats for figuring out any trends his statistics have followed in the last three years////In each of the past three seasons, Guardado’s ERA (02’-2.93, 03’-2.89, 04’-2.78), Hits allowed (02’-53, 03’-50, 04’-31) and translated H/9 (02’-6.4, 03’-6.2, 04’-5.1) have gotten better, while his translated K/9 (02’-9.1, 03’-8.0, 04’-7.8), and K totals (02’-70, 03’-60, 04’-45) have gotten worse////With Gaurdado’s significant decrease in IP due to injury, his “counting” stats in 2004 will not be considered for career-bests and worst, his translated statistics will be used for this though////2004 represented a career-best translated H/9 (5.1) for Gaurdado, while also representing a career-worst translated HR/9 (1.2) for him////Spent last four seasons in Minnesota (neutral park), and Seattle (severe pitcher’s park)/////

3. Wilson Alvarez (35): Signed with Dodgers, 2 years ($4 million) 2004 Statistics: 4.03 ERA, 120.7 IP, 109 Hits, 12 HR, 31 BB, 102 K, 21.0 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics: 3.71 ERA, 7.9 H/9—0.8 HR/9—1.9 BB/9—6.9 K/9--////Career Statistics: 3.94 ERA, 1723.7 IP, 1593 Hits, 183 HR, 798 BB, 1314 K////Translated career statistics: 3.50 ERA, 7.5 H/9—0.8 HR/9—3.5 BB/9—6.9 K/9--////Career K/BB of 1.65/1--////Was out of baseball in 2000, and 2001//// In each of the last three season’s Alvarez’s IP has increased (02’-75.0, 03’-95.0, 04’-120.7). Due to this, any of Alvarez’s “counting” stats that have risen on the same parallel as the IP (as they are supposed to do) will be discounted when figuring out recent trends for Alvarez; translated stats will be used for this though—of which there are none////2004 represented NO career bests, or worst for Alvarez////Spent last three seasons (not 4 since he was out of baseball in 2001) in Los Angeles (severe pitcher’s park), and Tampa Bay (neutral park)////

4. Kent Mercker (37): Signed with Reds, 2 years ($2.6 million) 2004 Statistics: 2.55 ERA, 53.0 IP, 39 Hits, 4 HR, 27 BB, 51 K, 18.6 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics: 2.08 ERA, 6.2 H/9—0.6 HR/9—4.2 BB/9—7.7 K/9--////Career Statistics: 4.19 ERA, 1221.7 IP, 1202 Hits, 139 HR, 569 BB, 849 K////Translated career statistics: 3.94 ERA, 8.0 H/9—0.9 HR/9—3.8 BB/9—6.0 K/9--////Career K/BB of 1.49/1--////In each of the last three seasons, Mercker’s Hits allowed totals (02’-55, 03’-46, 04’-39), HR allowed (02’-12, 03’-6, 04’-4), K totals (02’-37, 03’-48, 04’-51), and translated H/9 (02’-8.3, 03’-6.6, 04’-6.2) have all gotten better////2004 represented a career-best translated H/9 for Mercker (6.2)////Spent last three (not 4 because Mercker was out of baseball in 2000) seasons in Chicago Cubs (slight pitcher’s park), Atlanta (slight pitcher’s park), and Colorado (severe hitter’s park)////

5. Jason Christianson (35): Signed with Giants, 1 yr/$1.15 million 2004 Statistics: 4.50 ERA, 36.0 IP, 34 Hits, 3 HR, 26 BB, 22 K, 2.8 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics: 3.92 ERA, 7.4 H/9—0.7 HR/9—6.1 BB/9—4.8 K/9--////Career Statistics: 4.20 ERA, 388.0 IP, 354 Hits, 33 HR, 200 BB, 363 K////Translated career statistics: 3.71 ERA, 7.6 H/9—0.7 HR/9—4.3 BB/9—7.5 K/9--////Career K/BB of 1.81/1--////Since, in 2002, Christianson essentially did not pitch (only 5.0 IP), there are no recent trends of his to identify////2004 represented a career-worst translated BB/9 (6.1), and translated K/9 (4.8) for Christianson—excluding 2002////Spent last four seasons in St. Louis (moderate pitcher’s park), and San Francisco (severe pitcher’s park)////

6. Gabe White (33): Signed with Braves, 1 yr/$600,000 2004 Statistics: 6.94 ERA, 59.2 IP, 72 Hits, 14 HR, 12 BB, 41 K, (-6.9) VORP////2004 Translated Statistics: 5.45 ERA, 8.7 H/9—1.4 HR/9—1.4 BB/9—5.6 K/9--////Career Statistics: 4.55 ERA, 562.1 IP, 542 Hits, 95 HR, 140 BB, 453 K////Translated career statistics: 3.72 ERA, 7.3 H/9—1.1 HR/9—1.8 BB/9—6.5 K/9--////Career K/BB of 3.24/1--////In each of the past three seasons, White’s translated ERA (02’-2.47, 03’-3.38, 04’-5.45), ERA (02’-2.98, 03’-4.05, 04’-6.94), HR allowed (02’-3, 03’-7, 04’-14), translated HR/9 (02’-0.4, 03’-1.1, 04’-1.4), and translated BB/9 (02’-1.2, 03’-1.3, 04’-1.4) have all gotten worse////2004 represented a career-worst translated ERA (5.45), and ERA (6.94) for White////Spent last four seasons in Cincinnati (moderate hitter’s park), New York Yankees (slight pitcher’s park), and Colorado (severe hitter’s park)

7. Buddy Groom (39): Signed minor league contract with Yankees 2004 Statistics: 4.78 ERA, 52.7 IP, 67 Hits, 6 HR, 16 BB, 32 K, 6.8 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics: 3.98 ERA, 10.2 H/9—0.9 HR/9—2.4 BB/9—5.0 K/9--////Career Statistics: 4.63 ERA, 693.7 IP, 774 Hits, 68 HR, 248 BB, 474 K////Translated career statistics: 3.71 ERA, 8.9 H/9—0.8 HR/9—2.7 BB/9—5.9 K/9--////Career K/BB of 1.91/1--////In each of the past three seasons, Groom’s total Hits allowed (02’-44, 03’-58, 04’-67), BB allowed (02’-12, 03’-14, 04’-16), K totals (02’-48, 03’-34, 04’-32), translated H/9 (02’-6.6, 03’-9.9, 04’-10.2), and translated K/9 (02’-6.5, 03’-6.3, 04’-5.0) have all gotten worse////2004 represented NO career-bests or worst for Groom////Spent last four seasons in Baltimore (severe pitcher’s park until last season when it became a severe hitter’s park)////

8. Chris Hammond (39): Signed with Padres, 1 yr/$750,000 2004 Statistics: 2.68 ERA, 53.7 IP, 56 Hits, 4 HR, 13 BB, 34 K, 16.2 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics: 2.94 ERA, 9.2 H/9—0.6 HR/9—1.8 BB/9—5.2 K/9--////Career Statistics: 4.08 ERA, 1036.3 IP, 1076 Hits, 91 HR, 361 BB, 655 K////Translated career statistics: 4.08 ERA, 8.9 H/9—0.8 HR/9—2.9 BB/9—5.4 K/9--////Career K/BB of 1.81/1--////Was out of baseball in 1999, 2000, and 2001//// In each of the last three season’s Hammond’s IP has decreased (02’-76.0, 03’-63.0, 04’-53.7). Due to this, any of Hammond’s “counting” stats that have dropped on the same parallel as IP IP (as they are supposed to do) will be discounted when figuring out recent trends for Hammond; translated stats will be used for this though////In each of the last three seasons Hammond’s translated K/9 (02’-6.6, 03’-6.0, 04’-5.2), and translated ERA (02’-1.77, 03’-2.51, 04’-2.94) have gotten worse////2004 represented no career-bests or worst for Hammond////Spent last thee seasons (not 4 since he was out of baseball in 2001) in Oakland (neutral park), New York Yankees (slight pitcher’s park), and Atlanta (slight pitcher’s park)////

9. Jeff Fassero (42): Signed minor league contract with Giants 2004 Statistics (1.0 IP with Arizona is not counted): 5.51 ERA, 111.0 IP, 136 Hits, 9 HR, 44 BB, 59 K, (-2.2) VORP////2004 Translated Statistics: 4.17 ERA, 9.5 H/9—0.6 HR/9—3.0 BB/9—4.5 K/9--////Career Statistics: 4.09 ERA, 1927.7 IP, 1968 Hits, 203 HR, 685 BB, 1576 K////Translated career statistics: 3.75 ERA, 8.4 H/9—0.8 HR/9—2.8 BB/9—7.0 K/9--////Career K/BB of 2.30/1--////In each of the last three season’s Fassero’s IP has increased (02’-69.0, 03’-77.2, 04’-111.0). Due to this, any of Fassero’s “counting” stats that have risen on the same parallel as the IP (as they are supposed to do) will be discounted when figuring out recent trends for Fassero; translated stats will be used for this though////In each of the past three seasons, Fassero’s translated K/9 has gotten worse (02’-6.9, 03’-6.0, 04’-4.5)////2004 represented a career-worst translated K/9 (4.5) for Fassero////Spent last four seasons (excluding his 1 IP in Arizona last seasons) in Colorado (severe hitter’s park), St. Louis (moderate pitcher’s park), and Chicago Cubs (slight pitcher’s park)////

10. Rheal Cormier (38): Signed with Phillies, 2 years ($5.25 million) 2004 Statistics: 3.56 ERA, 81.0 IP, 70 Hits, 7 HR, 26 BB, 46 K, 19.3 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics: 3.00 ERA, 7.3 H/9—0.7 HR/9—2.5 BB/9—4.5 K/9--////Career Statistics: 4.01 ERA, 1123.3 IP, 1140 Hits, 106 HR, 283 BB, 706 K////Translated career statistics: 3.94 ERA, 8.7 H/9—0.9 HR/9—1.8 BB/9—5.3 K/9--////Career K/BB of 2.49/1--////In each of the last three seasons Cormier’s translated K/9 (02’-6.6, 03’-6.3, 04’-4.5) has gotten worse////Excluding 1997 (only 1.3 IP), 2004 represented a tie for Cormier’s career worst K/9 (4.5) ////Spent last four seasons in Philadelphia (moderate hitter’s park)////

11. Wayne Franklin (31): Signed with Giants, 1 yr/$380,000 2004 Statistics: 6.39 ERA, 50.7 IP, 55 Hits, 11 HR, 22 BB, 40 K, (-4.9) VORP////2004 Translated Statistics: 5.43 ERA, 7.9 H/9—1.4 HR/9—3.6 BB/9—6.4 K/9--////Career Statistics: 5.47 ERA, 302.7 IP, 313 Hits, 54 HR, 154 BB, 203 K////Translated career statistics: 4.60 ERA, 7.5 H/9—1.1 HR/9—4.1 BB/9—5.4 K/9--////Career K/BB of 1.32/1--////Since Franklin was a starter in 2003 (for the only time in his career), he has no trends involving counting stats but, in each of the past three seasons, Franklin’s ERA (02’-2.62, 03’-5.50, 04’-6.39), translated ERA (02’-2.30, 03’-4.74, 04’-5.43), translated H/9 (02’-5.6, 03’-7.4, 04’-7.9), and translated HR/9 (02’-0.3, 03’-1.2, 04’-1.4) have all gotten worse////2004 represented a career-worst ERA (6.39), translated ERA (5.43), and translated HR/9 (1.4) for Franklin, while also representing a career-best BB/9 (3.6) for him////Spent last four seasons in San Francisco (severe pitcher’s park), Milwaukee (neutral park), and Houston (moderate hitter’s park)////

12. Valerio De Los Santos (33): Was injured for much of 2004, so 2003 statistics are presented: 4.50 ERA, 52.0 IP, 45 Hits, 8 HR, 25 BB, 39 K, 1.4 VORP////2003 Translated Statistics: 4.38 ERA, 6.4 H/9—1.0 HR/9—4.0 BB/9—5.9 K/9--////Career Statistics: 4.38 ERA, 226.0 IP, 194 Hits, 32 HR, 104 BB, 181 K////Translated career statistics: 3.77 ERA, 6.5 H/9—0.9 HR/9—3.6 BB/9—6.4 K/9--////Career K/BB of 1.74/1--////Since De Los Santos only pitched 11.7 innings in 2004 because of injury, there are no recent trends of his to identify////Any of the statistics put up by De Los Santos in 2004 will not count toward a possible career-best or worst////Spent last four seasons in Milwaukee (neutral park), Philadelphia (moderate hitter’s park), and Toronto (moderate hitter's park)////

With this list, I end my two month-long research project on free agents. I learned a lot from making the reports, and I hope you learned a lot from reading them, or using them however you chose too.

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

Red Sox/Padres Trade

2004-12-27T14:19:00.000-05:00

In my efforts to report on as many trades as possible throughout this hectic baseball off season, while at the same time trying to finish my scouting reports on free agents, some reviews of trades are being written late.

When I do have the time to review the trades though, and subsequently give my opinions, I have to try and rank each trade in my mind as to which is the most significant, and review them first.

While this Red Sox/Padres trade is, in fact, a significant trade, I had it ranked below other trades that happened in approximately the same time period; such as all of the Oakland A's trades.

This "lower" ranking led to the review of this trade getting pushed back behind the reviews of trades that I deemed "more significant."

Now though, the Red Sox/Padres trade, which occurred on December 21, 2004, is up for my review.

In the trade the Boston Red Sox acquired 31 year-old RH OF Jay Payton, 27 year-old LH utility IF Ramon Vazquez, 21 year-old minor league RHP Dave Pauley, and $2.65 million from the San Diego Padres in exchange for 32-year-old LH OF Dave Roberts.

Here is a look at each of the involved players 2004, and career translated statistics:

***For minor-leaguer Dave Pauley, un-translated statistics will be presented because translated statistics for him were unavailable***

Red Sox receive:

Jay Payton:

2004: .265/.332/.378, .251 EqA (Un-translated statistics of 8 HR, 56/43 (1.30/1) K/BB)

Career: .282/.331/.439, .262 EqA {Career K/BB of 305/164 (1.86/1)}

Ramon Vazquez:

2004: Only 52 Games .245/.308/.327, .222 EqA (Un-translated Statistics of 1 HR, 24/11 (2.18/1) K/BB)

Career: .276/.347/.359, .254 EqA, {Career K/BB of 194/108 (1.80/1)}

Dave Pauley:

2004 (Single A): 4.17 ERA, 9.1 H/9—0.5 HR/9—3.9 BB/9—7.5 K/9

Minor-League Career: 3.97 ERA, 9.3 H/9—0.5 HR/9—3.0 BB/9—7.7 K/9

Padres receive:

Dave Roberts:

2004: .245/.329/.366, .271 EqA—reason for high EqA is tremendous SB/CS of 38/3 (93%), {Un-translated statistics of 4 HR, 31/28 (1.10/1) K/BB}

Career: .263/.338/.349, .260 EqA—again, reason for league-average EqA is career SB/CS of 135/32 (81%)—{Career K/BB of 158/141 (1.12/1)}

The best player involved in this deal is Payton, by a slim margin over Roberts. Looking at this trade from this perspective, it would be obvious that the Red Sox got the better end of this trade. While receiving the best player in the deal, they are also receiving two other players, and $2.65 million dollars.

If you’re like me, you’re saying to yourself, “the Padres must have done this deal to save money….right?”

To see if this is true, here is a look at the financial side of this deal.

Jay Payton is signed through 2005 with an option for 2006. In 2005 Payton is due to make $3.5 million. In 2006 he is guaranteed $500,000, with a $4 million option to make a total salary of $4.5 million 2006, if his option were picked up.

Now, I must take the $2.65 million that the Padres are giving the Red Sox next season and use that towards the payment of Payton’s 2005 salary. After the subtraction, the Red Sox end up paying Payton $850,000 in 2005 ($3.5 million 2005 salary minus $2.65 million paid by Padres).

As for Ramon Vazquez, he is arbitration-eligible for 2005. With his 2004 salary being $340,000, I don’t see him getting that much of a raise for 2005 with the numbers he put up in 2004.

For the sake of figuring out how each team made out financially in this deal, I’ll say Vazquez will make $500,000 in 2005.

For Pauley, I will not even add him onto the Red Sox payroll since he will stay in the minor leagues, for now. He will be making a minor-league salary anyways, and not count against the Red Sox’s Major League payroll.

On the Padres end, Roberts, like Vazquez, is also arbitration-eligible for 2005. He has recently been signed to a 1 year, $1.35 million deal by the Padres.

Using the numbers specified we see that the Red Sox are paying a total of $1.35 million for the services of Payton and Vazquez in 2005 ($850,000 that the Red Sox will pay Payton, plus estimated figure of $500,000 due to Vazquez in 2005).

Coincidentally, that is the exact amount of money that the Padres are paying Robert’s in 2005.

In the end, the money breaks down as even.

I do not think I have to break this trade down any further to show that the Red Sox ripped the Padres off in this deal.

The Red Sox got the best player in the deal in Payton, and on top of that, received the 27 year-old Vazquez, who carries a good career OBP, and a young pitching prospect in Pauley.

All this, while breaking out even in the money aspect of the trade!

Even if Pauley is a bust, the Red Sox still robbed the Padres in this deal.

I am forced to believe, after the breakdown of this trade, that the Padres were so distraught after Payton’s sub-par 2004 (see numbers above), and wanted a stolen-base threat so bad, that they were willing to get ripped off.

The Padres will begin 2005 with Robert’s as their leadoff man, and their starting CF.

As for the Red Sox, they will use Payton in a “fourth outfielder” role, filling in for any starting outfielder when they need a rest. Vazquez, essentially, will be backup at 2B and SS for the Red Sox, and possibly at the infield corners.

This Red Sox ripped the Padres off in this deal. I think the Padres put too way much emphasis on stolen bases, and took Payton’s sub-par 2004 too seriously. Due to these misjudgments, the Padres got the very, very short end of this deal.

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

Free Agent Right-handed Relief Pitchers #13-24

2004-12-26T20:40:00.000-05:00

After the long wait, here are the scouting reports for free-agent right-handed relief pitchers, numbers 13-24.

As I posted earlier, the reason for the long period of time between scouting reports was the flurry of trading activity that had taken place in Major League Baseball during the past few weeks that I absolutely had to report on.

Anyway, without further ado, here they are:

13. Esteban Yan (30): Signed with Angels, 2 years ($2.25 million) 2004 statistics- 3.83 ERA, 87.0 IP, 92 Hits, 8 HR, 32 BB, 69 K, 17.7 VORP////2004 translated statistics- 3.54 ERA, 8.7 H/9--0.7 HR/9--3.0 BB/9--6.6 K/9--////Career statistics- 5.17 ERA, 591.3 IP, 656 Hits, 89 HR, 220 BB, 484 K////Translated Career statistics- 4.24 ERA, 8.4 H/9--1.0 HR/9--2.8 BB/9--7.0 K/9////Career K/BB of 2.2/1--////In each of the past three seasons, Yan’s Hits allowed totals (02’-70, 03’-84, 04’-92) have gotten worse////2004 represented a career best translated HR/9 (0.7), and ERA (3.83) for Yan, while representing NO career worsts////Spent last four seasons in Tampa Bay (neutral), St. Louis (moderate pitcher’s park), Detroit (moderate pitcher’s park), and Texas (severe hitter’s park)////

14. Cal Eldred (37): Signed with Cardinals, 2 years ($600,000) 2004 statistics- 3.76 ERA, 67.0 IP, 71 Hits, 11 HR, 17 BB, 54 K, 11.4 VORP////2004 translated statistics- 3.76 ERA, 8.8 H/9--1.2 HR/9--1.9 BB/9--6.5 K/9--////Career statistics- 4.48 ERA, 1331.0 IP, 1305 Hits, 170 HR, 558 BB, 910 K////Translated Career statistics- 3.80 ERA, 7.7 H/9--1.0 HR/9--3.1 BB/9--6.1 K/9////Career K/BB of 1.63/1--////Since Eldred was out of baseball in 2002, there are no trends of his to identify////2004 represented a career best BB total (17) for Eldred for years in which he pitched 60+ innings////Spent last four seasons in Chicago White Sox (moderate hitter’s park), and St. Louis (moderate pitchers park)

15. Jose Mesa (39): Option picked up by Pirates 2004 statistics- 3.25 ERA, 69.3 IP, 78 Hits, 6 HR, 20 BB, 37 K, 17.9 VORP////2004 translated statistics- 2.72 ERA, 9.6 H/9--0.7 HR/9--2.3 BB/9--4.1 K/9--////Career statistics- 4.27 ERA, 1369.0 IP, 1442 Hits, 126 HR, 564 BB, 933 K////Translated Career statistics- 3.68 ERA, 8.6 H/9--0.7 HR/9--3.2 BB/9--6.1 K/9////Career K/BB of 1.65/1--////In each of the last three seasons, Mesa’s translated K/9 (02’-6.6, 03’-6.0, 04’-4.1), Hits allowed (02’-65, 03’-71, 04’-78), and K totals (02’-64, 03’-45, 04’-37) have gotten worse, while in the same period, his BB totals have gotten better (02’-39, 03’-31, 04’-20)////2004 represented NO career bests or worsts for Mesa////Spent last four seasons in Pittsburgh (neutral park), and Philadelphia (moderate hitter’s park)////

16. Dave Burba (39): Signed Minor League Contract with Astros 2004 statistics- 4.21 ERA, 77.0 IP, 70 Hits, 7 HR, 26 BB, 50 K, 8.8 VORP////2004 translated statistics- 3.67 ERA, 7.1 H/9--0.7 HR/9--2.7 BB/9--5.0 K/9--////Career statistics- 4.49 ERA, 1777.7 IP, 1777 Hits, 201 HR, 762 BB, 1398 K////Translated Career statistics- 3.97 ERA, 7.8 H/9--0.9 HR/9--3.7 BB/9--6.5 K/9////Career K/BB of 1.83/1--////Missed part of 2004 seasons due to injury////Spent last four seasons in Milwaukee (neutral park), San Francisco (severe pitcher’s park), Texas (severe hitter’s park), and Cleveland (neutral park)////

17. Elmer Dessens (33): Signed with Dodgers, 1 year ($1.3 million) 2004 statistics- 4.46 ERA, 105.0 IP, 123 Hits, 12 HR, 31 BB, 73 K, 5.8 VORP////2004 translated statistics- 3.81 ERA, 8.7 H/9--1.0 HR/9--2.2 BB/9--5.6 K/9--////Career statistics- 4.46 ERA, 914.0 IP, 1031 Hits, 115 HR, 265 BB, 550 K////Translated Career statistics- 3.72 ERA, 9.0 H/9--0.9 HR/9--2.1 BB/9--4.8 K/9////Career K/BB of 2.07/1--////In each of the past three seasons, Dessen’s translated K/9 (02’-4.2, 03’-5.2, 04’-5.6), and HR allowed (02’-24, 03’-22, 04’-15) have gotten better, while his IP has decreased in each of those same seasons (02’-178.0, 03’-175.2, 04’-105.0)////2004 represented a career best for Dessens in translated K/9 (5.6)////Spent last four seasons in Arizona (severe hitter’s park), Los Angeles (severe pitcher’s park), and Cincinnati (moderate hitter’s park)////

18. Dustin Hermanson (32): Signed with White Sox, 2 years ($5.5 million) 2004 statistics- 4.53 ERA, 131.0 IP, 132 Hits, 15 HR, 46 BB, 102 K, 12.7 VORP////2004 translated statistics- 3.89 ERA, 7.9 H/9--0.8 HR/9--2.9 BB/9--5.9 K/9--////Career statistics- 4.31 ERA, 1219.0 IP, 1233 Hits, 154 HR, 442 BB, 836 K////Translated Career statistics- 3.85 ERA, 7.9 H/9--1.0 HR/9--3.0 BB/9--5.1 K/9////Career K/BB of 1.89/1--////Due to a dramatic increase in IP in each of the past three seasons for Hermanson (02’-22.0, 03’-68.2, 04’-131.0), almost all of his “counting” statistics (HR, BB, K, Hits) have improved, those trends will be disregarded….but translated trends will be counted////In each of the past three seasons, Hermanson’s translated H/9 (02’-13.0, 03’-8.5, 04’-7.9) have gotten better////2004 represented NO career-bests or worsts for Hermanson////Spent last four seasons San Francisco (severe pitcher’s park), Boston (slight hitter’s park), and St. Louis (moderate pitcher’s park)////

19. Al Levine (37): 2004 statistics- 4.58 ERA, 70.7 IP, 83 Hits, 10 HR, 24 BB, 32 K, 12.3 VORP////2004 translated statistics- 3.72 ERA, 9.4 H/9—1.0 HR/9—2.6 BB/9—4.0 K/9--////Career statistics- 3.85 ERA, 565.0 IP, 581 Hits, 68 HR, 232 BB, 274 K////Translated Career statistics- 3.43 ERA, 4.5 H/9—0.8 HR/9—3.1 BB/9—4.3 K/9////Career K/BB of 1.18/1--////In each of past three seasons, Levine’s Hits allowed totals (02’-61, 03’-67, 04’-83), and HR allowed totals (02’-8, 03’-9, 04’-10) have gotten worse, while in that same period, his BB totals (02’-34, 03’-29, 04’-24), and translated BB/9 (02’-4.6, 03’-3.5, 04’-2.6) have gotten better////For seasons where Levine has accumulated 50+ IP, 2004 represented a career-worst ERA (4.58), translated H/9 (9.4), and tied a career-worst translated BB/9 (1.0) for Levine////Spent last four seasons in Detroit (moderate pitcher’s park), Tampa Bay (neutral park), Kansas City (severe hitter’s park when he pitched there), and Anaheim (slight hitter’s park)////

20. Terry Adams (32): Signed with Phillies, 1 yr/$500,000 2004 statistics- 4.76 ERA, 70.0 IP, 84 Hits, 10 HR, 28 BB, 56 K, 8.8 VORP////2004 translated statistics- 3.75 ERA, 9.0 H/9—1.1 HR/9—3.4 BB/9—6.2 K/9--////Career statistics- 4.04 ERA, 856.0 IP, 865 Hits, 60 HR, 370 BB, 687 K////Translated Career statistics- 3.75 ERA, 8.7 H/9—0.6 HR/9—3.6 BB/9—6.2 K/9////Career K/BB of 1.87/1--////In each of the past three seasons, Adam’s K/9 (02’-5.3, 03’-5.7, 04’-6.2) has gotten better////Excluding Adam’s rookie season (1995, 18.0 IP), 2004 represented a career-worst (4.76), HR allowed (10), and translated HR/9 (1.1) for Adams, while representing no career-bests////Spent last four seasons in Boston (slight hitter’s park), Toronto (moderate hitter’s park), Philadelphia (moderate hitter’s park), and Los Angeles (severe pitcher’s park)////

21. Roberto Hernandez (40): Signed Minor League contract with Mets 2004 statistics- 4.76 ERA, 56.7 IP, 66 Hits, 9 HR, 29 BB, 44 K, (-3.1) VORP////2004 translated statistics- 5.12 ERA, 9.0 H/9—1.1 HR/9—4.2 BB/9—6.2 K/9--////Career statistics- 3.39 ERA, 891.7 IP, 825 Hits, 81 HR, 377 BB, 805 K////Translated Career statistics- 3.05 ERA, 7.5 H/9—0.7 HR/9—3.2 BB/9—7.9 K/9////Career K/BB of 2.13/1--////In each of the past three seasons, Hernandez’s ERA (02’-4.33, 03’-4.35, 04’-4.76), and translated ERA (02’-3.56, 03’-4.54, 04’-5.12) have gotten worse////2004 represented a career-worst translated ERA (5.12) for Hernandez////Spent last four seasons in Philadelphia (moderate hitter’s park), Atlanta (slight pitcher’s park), and Kansas City (severe hitter’s park when he pitched there)////

22. Brian Boehringer (35): 2004 statistics- 4.62 ERA, 25.3 IP, 27 Hits, 2 HR, 17 BB, 20 K, 2.0 VORP////2004 translated statistics- 4.03 ERA, 8.4 H/9—0.6 HR/9—6.2 BB/9—5.9 K/9--////Career statistics- 4.36 ERA, 534.7 IP, 522 Hits, 64 HR, 274 BB, 632 K////Translated Career statistics- 3.86 ERA, 7.6 H/9—0.9 HR/9—4.4 BB/9—6.2 K/9////Career K/BB of 2.31/1--////Since injuries forced Boehringer to miss parts of the 2004 season, almost all of his “counting” statistics have gotten better because of the lack of IP. His 2004 “counting statistic” totals will be disregarded when it comes to identifying any recent trends that may have happened during the last three seasons; and identifying career-bests and worsts….No trends have occurred within Levine’s translated statistics during that same period////2004 represented a career-best translated BB/9 (0.6) for Boehringer////Spent last four seasons in Pittsburgh (neutral park), San Francisco (severe pitcher’s park), and New York Yankees (slight pitcher’s park)////

23. David Weathers (35): Signed with Reds, ($1.25 million) 2004 statistics- 4.15 ERA, 82.1 IP, 85 Hits, 12 HR, 35 BB, 61 K, 8.2 VORP////2004 translated statistics- 3.81 ERA, 8.1 H/9—1.0 HR/9—3.3 BB/9—3.1 K/9--////Career statistics- 4.47 ERA, 1016.0 IP, 1104 Hits, 94 HR, 456 BB, 734 K////Translated Career statistics- 4.15 ERA, 9.2 H/9—0.8 HR/9—3.6 BB/9—5.8 K/9////Career K/BB of 1.61/1--////In each of the past three season’s, Weather’s ERA (02’-2.91, 03’-3.08, 04’-4.15) has gotten worse////Excluding 1992 (only 3.3 IP), 2004 represented a tie for Weather’s career-worst translated HR/9 (1.0)////Spent last four season in New York Mets (severe pitcher’s park), Milwaukee (neutral park), Houston (moderate Hitter’s park), and Florida (severe pitcher’s park)////

24. Paul Shuey (35): Out of baseball in 2004, 2003 statistics- 3.00 ERA, 69.0 IP, 50 Hits, 6 HR, 33 BB, 60 K, 19.0 VORP////2003 translated statistics- 3.00 ERA, 6.2 H/9—0.8 HR/9—4.2 BB/9—6.5 K/9--////Career statistics- 3.57 ERA, 504.3 IP, 438 Hits, 40 HR, 256 BB, 534 K////Translated Career statistics- 3.10 ERA, 7.0 H/9—0.6 HR/9—4.0 BB/9—9.3 K/9////Career K/BB of 2.09/1--////Before an injury kept Shuey out of baseball in 2004, in each of his last three seasons before the injury, his translated H/9 (01’-8.2, 02’-7.1 03’-6.2), translated HR/9 (01’-0.3, 02’-0.5 03’-0.8), translated K/9 (01’-11.0, 02’-7.7 03’-6.5), HR allowed (01’-1, 02’-3, 03’-6), BB allowed (01’-26, 02’-31 03’-33), and K totals (01’-70, 02’-63 03’-60) had all gotten worse////2003 represented a career worst translated K/9 (6.5), and a tie for career-worst translated HR/9 (0.8) for Shuey////Spent last four seasons in Cleveland (neutral park), and Los Angeles (severe pitcher’s park)////

Next up will be the final installment of this series of scouting reports on free agents; “Left Handed Relief Pitchers.”

There are some trades that have happened that I have yet to report on, so I hope to get these "southpaw" reports out in about 1-2 weeks maximum.

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

Happy Holidays

2004-12-25T14:57:00.000-05:00

I would like to extend my warmest wishes to all, and wish everyone "Happy Holidays."

To everybody who has, will, and is visiting the site:

Thank you, you are greatly appreciated.

Frank Bundy III

Update on Free Agent Scouting Reports

2004-12-22T20:50:00.000-05:00

For those of you who visit the site regularly and are wondering why I have stopped putting out my free-agent scouting reports, there is an answer:

There have been so many trades and such in the past few weeks that I absolutely had to report on, consequently pushing the scouting reports back.

I did not give up on the scouting reports though, I believe they are a great tool to evaluate who your favorite team signs, and for that matter, anybody that any other team signs.

If you've been following the reports, you know that my last entry was "Right Handed Relief Pitchers #1-12." Well, #'s 13-24 will be put out soon, hopefully within the week. I can only guarentee that it WILL be put out though, not the time frame. Hopefully they will be put out sooner than later.

Thank you for reading any or all of the scouting reports that you have read. I hope they have been a useful tool in helping you follow all the action that is the baseball offseason.

I Know It's A Week Late But....."A's Acquire Ginter"

2004-12-21T20:03:00.000-05:00

I know this review is a week late, but with the flurry of trading activities--mostly involving the A's--I decided this trade would come after the deals for Mark Mulder and Tim Hudson.....

On December 15, 2004 the Oakland A’s, unsure about the return of Mark Ellis after missing the entire 2004 season due to injury, acquired 28 year-old Keith Ginter from the Milwaukee Brewers to play Ellis’s old position, second base.

In exchange for Ginter, the A’s gave the Brewers mid-season call-up RHP Justin Lehr (27 years old), and minor league OF Nelson Cruz (24 years old).

Here is a look at each of the involved player’s statistics.

For Lehr, and Cruz statistics presented will be un-traslated as translated statistics were unavailable. For Ginter, translated statistics will be presented.

A’s receive:

Keith Ginter

2004: .257/.330/.472, .274 EqA (un-translated statistics of 19 HR, 100/37 K/BB)

Career: .256/.344/.447, .273 EqA (career K/BB of 205/92=2.23/1)

Brewers receive:

Justin Lehr

2004 (AAA Sacramento): 37.1 IP, 2.65 ERA, 8.9 H/9—0.2 HR/9—2.4 BB/9—9.6 K/9

2004 (Oakland A’s): 32.2 IP, 5.23 ERA, 9.6 H/9—0.8 HR/9—3.9 BB/9—4.4 K/9

Minor League Career (568.0 IP): 4.23 ERA, 10.1 H/9—0.7 HR/9—2.8 BB/9—7.1 K/9

Nelson Cruz

2004 (A Modesto, AA Midland, AAA Sacramento): .326/.389/.562, 25 HR, 149/51 (2.92/1)

K/BB, 16/7 (69%) SB/CS

Minor League Career: .310/.373/.502, 340/120 ( 2.84/1) K/BB, 71/8 (90%) SB/CS

Before making the final judgment as to who got the better end of the deal, here is a look at the financial side of the trade:

Ginter is signed through 2006. In 2005 he will make only $450,000, in 06’ he will make $1.03 million. His total salary for those two seasons is $1.47 million. There are many incentives in his contract though, that could make it worth around $2.875 million.

Both Lehr and Cruz will both be making their minor-league salaries with the Brewers until seven years pass from the date they were first called up.

Since Lehr was called up last season, he is guaranteed his minor-league salary until at least 2010. Cruz has yet to be called up.

While saving a negligible amount of money, the Brewers received help, albeit unproven and unsteady help in Lehr, for their diminished bullpen which lost set-up man Luis Vizcaino, and All-Star closer Dan Kolb through trades earlier in the off-season.

Lehr had a great 2004 in AAA Sacramento, but faltered in his stint with the A’s, all while putting up mediocre numbers throughout his minor league career.

The Brewers also received a great prospect in Cruz, who can steal bases and has put up great numbers throughout his minor league career. He is expected to start the season in the Brewers AA club, the Huntsville Stars.

The A’s, who essentially just tack Ginter’s salary onto their payroll since they only gave up minor league players in the deal, receive a player who has shown the ability to be a very good infielder. Throughout Ginter’s past two seasons’ with the Brewers, he was a backup at 2B, SS, and 3B, and as one can see, put up very good numbers when he played. Ginter totaled 386 and 358 AB’s in 2003, and 2004 respectively.

As a matter of a fact, Ginter’s career numbers are better than both Marco Scutaro, and Mark Ellis’s career numbers—the players Ginter will be vying with for a starting second base position.

**Ellis, and Scutaro’s translated career statistics:

Ellis: .263/.342/.390, .259 EqA

Scutaro: .263/.302/.393, .241 EqA

I believe the A’s got the better end of this trade.

Even though the A’s gave up a great prospect in Cruz, Lehr has not had a very good minor-league career and faltered in his only stint in the major leagues thus far.

In Ginter, the A’s receive a player who is still young, will cost little money, and has put up very good numbers when he has played in the Major leagues.

I believe the Brewers made this trade out of necessity, since they needed an arm for their depleted bullpen.

They didn’t get robbed by the A’s, they just didn’t get the better end of the deal.

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

Cardinals acquire Mark Mulder

2004-12-20T19:00:00.000-05:00

On December 19, 2004, Oakland A’s 26 year-old RHP Mark Mulder was acquired by the St. Louis Cardinals to fulfill the role of pitching staff "Ace"--a position that St. Louis Cardinals General Manager Walt Jocketty believed needed to be filled after the St. Louis Cardinals were swept by the Boston Red Sox in the 2004 World Series.

In exchange for Mulder, the Cardinals gave the A’s 29 year-old RHP Kiko Calero, 24 year-old RHP Dan Haren, and 19 year-old minor league catcher Daric Barton.

Here is a look at each of the involved players 2004, and career translated numbers.

***For Daric Barton only 2004 un-translated statistics will be presented, as translated statistics were unavailable. For Dan Haren, both 2004 and career un-translated statistics will be presented for the same reason.***

Cardinals receive:

Mark Mulder:

2004: 3.85 ERA, 8.0 H/9—0.8 HR/9—3.0 BB/9—5.1 K/9

Career: 3.45 ERA, 8.2 H/9—0.8 HR/9—2.3 BB/9—5.5 K/9

A’s receive:

Kiko Calero

2004: 2.60 ERA, 4.8 H/9—0.9 HR/9—1.6 BB/9—8.1 K/9

Career: 2.65 ERA, 5.5 H/9—0.9 HR/9—2.9 BB/9—9.2 K/9

Dan Haren (Haren was a mid-season call-up for the Cardinals in 03’ and 04’):

2004: 4.50 ERA, 8.8 H/9—0.9 HR/9—3.3 BB/9—6.3 K/9

Career: 4.85 ERA, 9.8 H/9—0.8 HR/9—3.0 BB/9—5.7 K/9

Daric Barton (A-ball, Peoria Chiefs)

2004: 313 AB, .313/.445/.511, 13 HR, 69/44 K/BB

The Cardinals are, without a doubt, receiving an All-Star caliber pitcher in Mulder, who has shown throughout his career that he can, indeed, fill the role of "Ace," that he was brought in to do.

The A’s on the other hand are receiving hope for the future with this trade. With the 19 year-old Barton not yet called up to the majors, and Haren only being 25 years old, great potential for the future still lies within these two young players.

In Calero, the A’s receive a proven relief pitcher, who has done nothing but put up phenomenal numbers for the Cardinals in the past two seasons.

A quick look at the money side of this deal will show the A’s are saving a nice amount of cash.

Both Haren and Barton are still making the league-minimum minor league salary, while Calero’s salary in 2005 will be determined through arbitration; and assuming it won’t be too much higher than 2004 salary of $310,000, these three players are sure to make much less money, combined, than the $6 million Mulder will make in 2005.

As for the Cardinals, they now have to pick up Mulder’s contract which runs through 2005, with a club option for 2006 at $7.25 million. Obviously, with this trade, the A’s have rid themselves of having to worry about picking up this option.

The role that Mulder is expected to fill with the Cardinals is very clear, and has been specified. While the Cardinals did pick up a great pitcher, it has to be in the back of their minds how Mulder struggled badly down the stretch in 2004. Mulder’s untranslated ERA by month:

April: 3.00

May: 3.00

June: 2.74

July: 5.11

August: 5.14

September:8.10

October (one start): 18.00

Besides that tough stretch, Mulder has been nothing short of dominant throughout his entire career.

The role that Haren is expected to fill for the A’s has been rumored to be starting pitcher. If this rumor is true, the A’s must believe he can pitch more like he has throughout his minor-league career (473.0 IP, 1.22 ERA, 8.5 H/9—0.8 HR/9—1.6 BB/9—8.8 K/9), because in Haren’s brief time in the big leagues, he has not shown the ability to be a quality pitcher (see numbers above).
With the acquisition of Barton, the A’s put themselves in position to trade away newly acquired, highly-paid, catcher Jason Kendall when they believe Barton is ready to be called up to the major leagues.

Calero’s role with the A’s will be the same as it was with the Cardinals—dominant reliever.

In the end, the Cardinals got the better end of this trade. The amount of money they are paying Mulder next season is a bargain--only $6 million is paltry compared to what the top-tier 2004 free-agent starting pitcher’s are getting paid, as a matter of fact, so is the $7.5 million that the Cardinals will have to pay Mulder if they pick up his option in 2006. On top of Mulder’s dominance, it must be remembered that he is only going to be 27 years-old in 2005 to boot.

While I think the A’s got the better end of their deal with the Braves for Tim Hudson, I do not think the same case holds true for this trade. The player the A’s received from the Braves who did have major league experience (Juan Cruz, Charles Thomas), had shown great success in their time in the majors. In this deal, only one of the two players with major league experience--Calero--has had success. Haren has been a bust throughout his two stints in the major leagues.

I cannot believe I am saying it, but I think Billy Beane was outdone in this deal. Even though he saved a large amount of money, and picked up some good prospects.

Obviously, if Haren turns things around and becomes another Mark Mulder, and Barton responds to his call-up by becoming the next Ivan Rodriguez, then the A’s would end up with the better end of this deal. For now though, the Cardinals stole one from the A’s.

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestion, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

Braves/A's trade

2004-12-18T19:13:00.000-05:00

On December 16, 2004 the Atlanta Braves acquired Tim Hudson from the Oakland A’s in exchange for OF Charles Thomas, minor league RHP Dan Meyer, and RHP Juan Cruz.

Here is a look at each involved players 2004, and career translated statistics.

For Dan Meyer, and Charles Thomas, I will present their 2004 un-translated statistics because translated statistics for them were unavailable.

Braves receive:
Player (Player’s age in 2005)

Tim Hudson (29)

2004: 3.26 ERA, 9.4 H/9--0.4 HR/9--1.7 BB/9--4.6 K/9

Career: 3.03 ERA, 7.9 H/9--0.6 HR/9--2.4 BB/9--6.1 K/9

A’s Receive:

Dan Meyer (24- combined 2004 at AAA Richmond, and AA Greenville)

2004: 2.50 ERA, 8.0 H/9--.5 HR/9--2.6 BB/9--10.4 K/9

Charles Thomas (26--was called up from AAA Richmond halfway through season, statistics accumulated with Braves are presente here)

2004: .288/.367/.445 in 267 Plate Appearances

Career: SAME AS 2004

Juan Cruz (24):

2004: 2.61 ERA, 7.1 H/9--0.8 HR/9--3.4 BB/9--7.7 K/9

Career: 3.72 ERA, 7.2 H/9--0.8 HR/9--4.0 BB/9--7.3 K/9

Even though the Braves filled a huge hole by acquiring Hudson, a hole left open because of the departures of starting pitchers Jaret Wright, Paul Byrd, and Russ Ortiz via free agency, I believe the A’s got the better end of this deal, even before looking at each player’s contracts.

Even though Hudson is one of the best pitchers in baseball; if one were to take a look at the ages and statistics of the players the A’s are receiving, they would find that the average age of the A’s newest players is 24.67. One would also find that two of the A's three new players have already played in the big leagues, AND have shown success.

Just based on talent, I think the A’s, just barely, got the better end of this deal.

Now I must take a look at the money situation.

Tim Hudson is signed through 2005, when he will make $6.75 million. The Braves now own this contract.

I do not know the contracts of the players the A’s are receiving, but what I do know is that they are still under their minor league contract structures. Therefore, I’m fairly sure that all three of the players combined salaries in 2005 will come out to be less than the $6.75 million that Hudson will make.

I also know that once minor league players are called up to the majors, their major league team has rights to him for, I believe, 7 years.

***Again, note, that I am not completely aware of the minor-league baseball salary and contract provisions (I looked all over to get specifics), but what I do know is not so inaccurate that it couldn‘t be used for this analysis.***

Thomas was called up to the Braves for the first time last season, which would mean that his major league contract--now owned by the A‘s--will run through at least 2010, at a minor league salary!

With Meyer being called up toward the end of last season for the first time, he is also under contract--now for the A’s--through at least 2010.

As for Juan Cruz, his first call up to the major leagues came in 2001, so his contract--now owned by the A’s--will run through at least 2007.

Each of the A's new players will be making minor league salaries throughout their contracts, which will save the A's a lot of money next season.

Not to mention, now they A's do not have to worry about trying to resign perennial All-Star Hudson after the 2005 season, who is sure to ask for more than $10 million per year next season.

While I cannot make an estimate as to how much money will be saved by Oakland, I know that they WILL, in fact, save money, and that they acquired two great prospects in Thomas and Meyer, and a youngster who has already shown a good amount of success at the major league level in Juan Cruz.

Taking a look at how the Braves will use Hudson, one would find that he is there to replace Jaret Wright (29 in 2005), the Braves best pitcher in 2004, whom they lost via free agency. With Hudson being the Braves new best pitcher, let's take a look at Wright’s 2004, and career translated statistics to see how they stack up against eachother (Hudson‘s statistics can be found earlier in article):

2004- 3.84 ERA, 8.3 H/9--.5 HR/9--3.0 BB/9--6.8 K/9

Career- 4.76 ERA, 9.0 H/9--.8 HR/9--3.8 BB/9--6.5 K/9

Hudson had a slightly better season in 2004, but throughout their careers, Hudson is clearly the better pitcher. Both players will be 29 years old in 2005.

While the Braves made a clear upgrade to their pitching rotation, at a bargain price--only $6.75 million for Hudson is a steal compared to the salaries that the current free agent starting pitchers are making--they gave up too much.

***One last piece of information to translate however you want:

Hudson missed part of 2004 due to an oblique muscle injury. I chose not to use this information in the analysis because Hudson still accumulated 188.7 IP in 2004. The injury was a minor one, at most.***

I give the edge, slightly, to Oakland in this deal.

Thank You for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com

Richie Sexson Signs with Mariners

2004-12-15T18:46:00.000-05:00

Steven Hanson reports on the Seattle Mariners big signing.

On December 15, 2004 the Seattle Mariners signed free-agent first baseman Richie Sexson. Seattle will be Sexson’s third team in two years, after being traded prior to last season from the Milwaukee Brewers to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Sexson, a Portland native, signed a four year deal worth approximately $48 million. He was injured for most of last year, so the big question is whether he can stay healthy and bring the Mariners back into the playoffs.

In 1997, Sexson belted 31 homers and drove in 88 runs for the AAA Buffalo Bisons (farm club of Cleveland Indians), and provided a final footnote for the American Association that year when he hit a three-run homer to give the Bisons a 5-4 win in the clinching game of the AAA Championship Series. That moment led to Sexson's first Major League call-up on September 14th, 1997 when he immediately contributed to the Cleveland Indians offense with a pinch-hit single in an 8-3 victory over the Chicago White Sox.

Sexson hit 31 homeruns in 1999, 30 in 2000, 45 in 2001, 29 in 2002, and another 45 in 2003. Not only was his homerun total intriguing to Seattle, his .270/.346/.540 translated lifetime batting line was a contribution also.

Sexson hit 9 homeruns in 29 games in 2004, before missing the remainder of the season due to injury.

The right-hander should add some pop at the beginning of Seattle's lineup, most likely hitting third in the order unless third baseman Adrian Beltre is signed.

A side-issue of this story is Sexson’s number. He's been wearing number 11 since his pro debut, but so has Edgar Martinez. Martinez played his entire 18-year career in Seattle wearing that same number, which surely will be retired. Whether Sexson will ask Martinez to use his number or find another is up to him, only time can answer that.

Steven Hanson

If you have any question, comments, concerns, or suggestions specific to this article please do not hesitate to email Steven at bravest2@yahoo.com.

If you have any question, comments, concerns, or suggestions please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

Brewers/White Sox Trade

2004-12-14T09:09:00.000-05:00

On December 12, 2004 the Chicago White Sox agreed to send 29 year-old* OF Carlos Lee to the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for 29 year-old* OF Scott Podsednik, 30 year-old* RP Luis Vizcaino, and a player to be named later.

*Age is presented as player's age in 2005.

As always, when trades happen throughout baseball, I like to write an article with a complete breakdown of all the involved players, and money aspect. And of course, I give my opinion as to whom got the better end of the deal. With this deal though, I cannot prepare a full breakdown, or give a completely informed opinion because of the "player to be named later."

Without knowing this "player to be named later" I cannot fully assess what each team is giving and receiving.

So while not being able to give a completely informed breakdown and opinion of this trade, I can give a breakdown and opinion of the deal only using the known players (Lee, Podsednik, Vizcaino).

To start my breakdown of this trade, here is a look at the 2004 and career translated statistics of each player involved:

Brewers receive:

Carlos Lee-

2004: .303/.370/.331, .299 EqA{(Un-translated statistics: 31 HR, 86/54 (1.59) K/BB, 11/3 (79%) SB/CS}

Career: .285/.341/.494, .281 EqA {Un-translated statistics: 301/255 (1.18/1) K/BB, 64/26 (71%) SB/CS}

White Sox receive:

Scott Podsednik-

2004: .233/.301/.352, .249 EqA {Un-translated statistics: 12 HR, 105/58 (1.81/1), 70/13 (84%) SB/CS}

Career: .269/.337/.394, .268 EqA {203/118 (1.72/1) K/BB, 113/23 (83%) SB/CS}

Luis Vizcaino-

2004: 3.38 ERA, 6.1 H/9--1.1 HR/9--2.6 BB/9--6.9 K/9

Career: 3.75 ERA, 6.6 H/9--1.1 HR/9--3.1 BB/9--7.4 K/9

Saying Lee is better than Podsednik at this point in each players respective careers is a fact.

If it weren't for stolen bases, Podsednik would have very little value.

Obviously in replacing Lee with Podsednik the White Sox are hoping to get the 2003 version of Podsednik, who looked like so:(translated statistics) .314/.378/.441, .290 EqA--un-translated stats of 9 HR, 43/10 (81%) SB/CS.

If Podsednik does put up those numbers, the White Sox still fall short in replacing Lee with Podsednik. When Vizcaino is added though, combined with a 2003 version of Podsednik, then this trade doesn't end up so bad.

Vizcaino is not a great reliever by any means. He is a reliever who has a tendency to give up HR's, and walk batters, but strikes out a good amount of them also. Combine Vizcaino with a 2003 version of Podsednik, then, this would be a good trade for the White Sox.

But the fact is, one shouldn't count on a return to form by Podsednik. He should be expected to probably "split the difference" between 2004 and 2003. After crunching the numbers, this "split the difference" season for Podsednik would look like so:

.270/.336/.394, .250 EqA (57/12 SB/CS)

It is not that hard to see that this predicted "split the difference" season by Podesednik wouldn't even match Lee's worst season of 1999 (.289/.308/.470, .262 EqA).

Combining a predicted "split the difference" season by Podsednik, with Luis Vizcaino to replace Lee is a horrible deal for the White Sox, while being a great deal for the Brewers.

Taking a look at the money aspect of this trade will tell us why the White Sox made this deal.

Carlos Lee is signed through 2006, and is due to make $8 million in 2005, while being guaranteed $500,000 in 2006 with an $8.5 million option.

Podsednik is due to make, and this is not a joke, $550,000 in 2005, and $1.9 million in 2006.

Vizcaino is arbitration-eligible in 2005. To make an estimate on Vizcaino's arbitration-based salary, I will take Vizcaino's 2004 salary of $550,000 into account, and factor in a raise based on the current state of the market, and his 2004 performance. The figure I will use for Vizcaino's 2005 salary is $700,000.

Now, in the next two years, assuming the White Sox would pick-up Lee's 2006 option, the White Sox would have had to pay Lee $17 million. With Lee gone now, and Podsednik and Vizcaino on the team, the White Sox only have to pay those two players a combined $3.15 million through 2006 (Vizcaino through 2005, Podesednik through 2006).

In the next two years, again assuming the White Sox would have picked up Lee's 2006 option, the White Sox saved $13.85 million ($17 million minus $3.15 million).

If the White Sox declined Lee's 2006 option, they would only have to pay him $500,000 in 2006, ending up paying him a total of $8.5 million after 2006. In this scenario the White Sox would save only $5.35 ($8.5 million minus $3.15 million). Still great savings.

On the other end, with the Brewers picking up Lee and his hefty contract, they add, assuming they do pick-up Lee's 2006 option, $13.85 million ($17 million minus $3.15 million) to their payroll for the next two seasons.

The Brewers do not have to pick up that option though, and if they don't, they will only be due to pay Lee $8 million in 2005 and only $550,000 in 06.

Using this scenario, the Brewers would only be adding $5.35 million ($8.5 million minus $3.15 million) to their payroll for the next two seasons. This would be only a $2.2 million ($5.35 million minus $3.15 million) increase from what they would have owed Podsednik and Vizcaino in 05' and 06'.

After looking at both the talent of the players, and the money aspects of this trade, I believe the Brewers get the better end of this deal.

While the White Sox save a huge amount of money, they are losing a great player in Lee who is only going to be 29 next season. Even though they are getting another 28 year-old OF in Podsednik, he is clearly not on the same level as Lee.

Even with the possibility of Podsednik repeating his 2003 performance, and combining that with the addition of Luis Vizcaino--in my opinion "evening" up the deal--losing Carlos Lee to take this chance was not a chance worth taking for the White Sox.

As for the Brewers, they are adding a great player in the prime of his career, to their lineup in 2004, for only $2.2 million. This is a great deal.

As for all the extra money saved by the White Sox, they may use that money to make a great signing of a top free-agent, and therefore, giving this trade some credibility. If they do not make a great signing though, then it is clear that the White Sox dropped the ball in this deal.

As a baseball fan, and a human being, I have to believe that White Sox GM Ken Williams does, indeed, have a plan for the money his team saved in this deal. We are yet to see what he plans to do with it.

Remember, there is a player to be named left in this deal, and for all I and anybody else knows, this player could be the next Barry Bonds.

So, as I said in the beginning of this article, this is an incomplete analysis of this trade. The analysis in this article is strictly based on the exchange of Carlos Lee for Scott Podsednik and Luis Vizcaino.

I ask that you take this analysis for what it is worth; incomplete.

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

Off Season Focus: Seattle Mariners

2004-12-13T22:46:00.000-05:00

Steven Hanson puts his “Off-season Focus” on the Seattle Mariners.

One year after losing 99 games, the Seattle Mariners look to revamp their struggling offense and starting rotation. Upcoming stars like Jeremy Reed, acquired from the Chicago White Sox last year in a trade for Freddy Garcia, provide the future for the Mariners.

Last season the Mariners released shortstop Rich Aurilia in the middle of the season and brought up 20-year-old Jose Lopez from AAA Tacoma to replace him. Since then, the new signings from last off season proved to be busts; with Scott Spiezio sitting on the bench, and Rich Aurilia on a different team.

This off-season, outfielder Randy Winn may be traded for some needed depth in the bullpen. A name being thrown around for a possible deal to Seattle in exchange for Winn has been Baltimore's Jorge Julio.

Needs: 1B, 3B, OF, SP, RP

Along with Aurilia, first baseman John Olerud was released and was later signed with the New York Yankees, leaving Seattle with a gaping whole at first base. Along with the retirement of Edgar Martinez who could have been a possible (although slight) first-basemen in 2005, the Mariners will be shopping for a first baseman to fill that hole. A possible scenario for the Mariners, however, would be to sign an outfielder instead of a first baseman, and move Raul Ibanez to first.

Names that have popped up this season for the Mariners include Matt Clement, Carl Pavano, Adrian Beltre, Corey Koskie, Richie Sexson, and Carlos Delgado. Seattle has made offers to most of those players, including an offer reaching five years worth more than $10 million per season for the 25-year-old Beltre.

Predicted Signings: 1B Richie Sexson, 3B Adrian Beltre, SP Matt Clement

Although the market this year has obviously evolved from years past, the Mariners could get by with signing Beltre, since barely any other teams will be able to match Seattle's offer thus far.
Clement, whom last year played for the Chicago Cubs, will most likely sign towards the middle of January for around 3 years, at $8 million per year.

Although he was injured for most of last season, Richie Sexson will attract offers from across the league, but will, towards the beginning of spring training, sign with the Mariners.
Probably the most surprising team last year, with more than 30 losses than their total in 2002, the Mariners could be in the hunt for the playoffs once again with the signing of these three players.

If healthy, these new pickups could lift the Mariners into at least third place in the AL West, easily the best division in baseball.

2005 Season Prediction: 86-76, 3rd in AL West

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions specific to this article, please do not hesitate to email Steven Hanson at bravest2@yahoo.com.

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

Pirates/Indians Trade

2004-12-13T00:53:00.000-05:00

It wasn’t that long ago when I was writing about the Oakland A’s trading relief pitcher Arthur Rhodes to the Pittsburgh Pirates. Now, two weeks later, here I am writing about how the Pirates already have traded the 35 year-old Rhodes away—before the season even started.

On December 11, 2004, Pittsburgh agreed to trade Rhodes to the Cleveland Indians for 33 year-old OF Matt Lawton.

Now before answering the question, “Who will benefit more from this trade?” Here is a look at each player's 2004 and career translated statistics.

Lawton:

2004: .283/.377/.434--.284 EqA
{Un-translated stats- Career-high 20 HR in 591 AB, 84/74 (1.13/1), 23/9 SB/CS (72 %)}

Career: .269/.372/.429--.281 EqA
{Un-translated Stats- 534/610 (.875/1) K/BB, 147/57 (72%) SB/CS}

Rhodes:

2004: 4.85 ERA, 10.1 H/9, 1.9 HR/9, 4.9 BB/9, 7.0 K/9

Career- 4.16 ERA, 7.9 H/9, 1.0 HR/9, 3.5 BB/9, 8.7 K/9

I’m not going to lie, all I did was copy Rhodes statistics from my “A/Pirates Trade” article and pasted them here.

And, as I stated in that prior article, I will still have the same opinion about Rhodes:

Again, partly copied and pasted--Throughout his career Rhodes has been very inconsistent. With Rhodes turning 35 in 2005, I wouldn't expect any repeat performances of his 2001 (1.72 ERA in 68.0 IP) or 2002 (2.33 ERA in 69.7 IP) seasons.

As for my opinion on Lawton, I think he is a very good player. His career statistics support this claim.

Remember, .260 EqA is average for a Major League Baseball player, and Lawton’s career EqA is .281. Lawton IS a very good player.

Why did the Indians trade a very good younger player for and inconsistent older one?

Was it money?

Well here is a look at the financial figures for each player.

Lawton:

Signed through 2005. He will make $7.25 million in 2005.

Rhodes:

Signed through 2006. He will make $3.07 million in both 2005 and 2006. His combined salary for 2005-06’ is $6.14 million.

As one could easily figure out, the Indians saved $1.11 million in total salary (Lawton’s $7.25 million minus Rhodes combined salary of $6.14 million) with this trade. In 2005 alone though, they save $4.18 million (Lawton’s 2005 salary minus Rhode’s 2005 salary). They also get Rhodes services for two years, as opposed to only getting one year of service if they had kept Lawton.

It is obvious that part of the motivation behind this trade for Cleveland was, in fact, money.

Cleveland also made this trade though, because they had one of the worst bullpens in the American League in 2004 (4.88 ERA in 2004, ranked 12th out of 14 AL teams). They must believe that Rhodes can solidify their bullpen, and can push them over the top as a whole.

Also, the Indians must believe that they could afford to lose Lawton’s offense because, besides having one of the worst bullpens in the AL last year, they had one of the league’s top offenses (.795 team OPS, ranked 3rd in AL; 858 runs scored, ranked 5th in AL).

I do not agree with either of these stated beliefs. I do not believe Rhodes is the answer. It is highly unlikely that he is ever going to pitch like he did in 2001-02’ again (see numbers above). Is it a possibility? Yes. Is it likely? No.

I DO believe he will pitch better in 2005 than he did in 2004 though, but he still is NOT the answer.

I also do not think that the Indians could afford to lose Lawton. Even though Cleveland had one of the best offenses in the AL, many of their players had “career-years” in 2004, and numbers like that should not be expected out of those players again.

Here is a list of the top 8 offensive players on the Indians in 2004, by Plate Appearances, and their 2004 EqA vs. their career EqA (List excludes Omar Vizquel because he will not be on the Indians in 2005):

Player----------2004 EqA---------Career EqA
M. Lawton----------.281-----------------.284
Casey Blake--------.288-----------------.269
Ron Belliard--------.274------------------.258
Victor Martinez----.295-------.284 (Only 191 AB before 2004)
Travis Hafner------.334-------.309 (Only 353 AB before 2004)
Jody Gerut--------.265-------.274 (only 480 AB before 2004)
Coco Crisp---------.276-------.258 (only 541AB before 2004)
Ben Broussard-----.298--------.277 (only 498 AB before 2004)

Matt Lawton is the only player on the list that had more prior experience than 600 AB’s and that had a year on par with his career numbers.

Basically, he is the only player on the 2004 team that a general manager could put a fair amount of trust in to have a similar year to the one he had in 2004. Every other player on the roster is a “question mark” for 2005.

This is why getting rid of Lawton was a mistake. I know the Indians saved money, and gained an extra year of service out of Rhodes; but their only steady offensive player is now gone.

If even half of the players on the Indians revert back to their career numbers in 2005, or have a “sophomore slump” (based on AB’s—not actually years of service—using 500 AB’s as on full year of service), the Indians are going to be facing a significantly worse offense than the one they fielded in 2004.

One way for the Indians to at least give themselves a better chance to keep up with the 2004 version of themselves was to keep Lawton—and they didn’t.

They got rid of him for a 35 year-old inconsistent reliever coming off of a bad year, an extra year of service, and $1.11 million dollars.

It wasn’t worth it.

As for the Pirates, I believe it is fairly obvious that they are getting the better end of this deal.

For them to lose one year of service, and only add $1.11 million dollars to their payroll through 2006 (using the immediate addition of $4.18 million in 2005—Lawton’s 2005 salary minus Rhode’s 2005 salary, then subtracting the $3.07 million they will NOT have to pay Rhodes next season) in exchange for a player like Lawton is a great deal.

After saving $17 million by trading former catcher Jason Kendall to the A’s (fully saved after 2007--read prior article “A/Pirates Trade”), the Pirates have spent part of that money very wisely in acquiring Matt Lawton.

Good job Pittsburgh.

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

Free Agent Right-Handed Relief Pitchers #1-12

2004-12-12T22:53:00.000-05:00

Now, after doing a lot of work to determine a qualifying standard for relief pitchers to get a scouting report, here are the free agent right-handed relief pitchers for 2004, numbers 1 – 12.

After looking at every reliever’s recent statistics, and using the averages—and going a little worse than them—the qualifying standard I came up with for a reliever to get a scouting report on “Serious Baseball” was an average of at least 40.0 IP in the last three seasons, while maintaining a 4.75 ERA or better.

After filtering out some relievers with this standard I was left with 34 total relievers, 24 right-handers and 10 left-handers.

Here, I present you with scouting reports on #1-12 of the right-handed relief pitchers, based on my ranking as to whom I believe is the best available.

The next segment—which should take less time to compute—will deal with right-handed relief pitchers #13-24.

1. Armando Benitez (32): Signed with San Francisco, 3 years ($22.5 million) 2004 Statistics- 1.29 ERA, 69.7 IP, 36 Hits, 6 HR, 21 BB, 62 K, 33.1 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 1.35 ERA, 4.3 H/9—0.7 HR/9—2.5 BB/9—6.9 K/9--////Career Statistics- 2.85 ERA, 654.0 IP, 428 Hits, 73 HR, 335 BB, 826 K////Translated Career Statistics- 2.53 ERA, 5.1 H/9—0.8 HR/9—4.2 BB/9—10.1 K/9--////Career K/BB of 2.47/1--////In each of the last three seasons Benitez’s translated K/9 (02’-9.2, 03’-8.1, 04’-6.9), and total K’s (02’-79, 03’-75, 04’-62) have gotten worse////Excluding 1994 and 1996 (only 10.0, and 16.0 IP respectively), 2004 represented a career-best ERA (1.29), translated ERA (1.35), BB (21), Hits allowed (36), and translated BB/9 (2.5) for Benitez, while also representing a career-worst translated K/9 (6.9)////Spent last four season in Florida (severe pitcher’s park), New York Mets (severe pitcher’s park), New York Yankees (slight pitcher’s park), and Seattle (severe pitcher’s park)—and he’s moving to San Francisco (severe pitcher’s park), this guy’s luckier than Kevin Federline and Ringo Starr combined.

2. Scott Williamson (29): Signed Minor League deal with Cubs 2004 Statistics- 1.21 ERA, 28.7 IP, 11 Hits, 0 HR, 18 BB, 28 K, 14.0 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 1.31 ERA, 3.7 H/9—0.0 HR/9—5.2 BB/9—8.7 K/9--////Career Statistics- 2.98 ERA, 371.3 IP, 258 Hits, 27 HR, 208 BB, 429 K////Translated Career Statistics- 2.64 ERA, 5.8 H/9—0.5 HR/9—4.3 BB/9—9.7 K/9--////Career K/BB of 2.06/1--////In each of the last three seasons Williamson’s translated BB/9 (02’-3.6, 03’-4.5, 04’-5.2), and total K’s (02’-84, 03’-74, 04’-28) have gotten worse, while his total BB totals (02’-36, 03’-34, 04’-18) have gotten better ////Missed about half of 2004 due to injury////Since Williamson was injured for much of 2004, I will not use any of his total counting stats (K’s, BB’s, Hits, etc…) in consideration for career-bests and worst. I will use his translated per-nine-innings stats for consideration though////Excluding 2001(only .2 IP), 2004 represented a career-best translated H/9 (3.7), and translated HR/9 (0) for Williamson, while also represented a career-worst translated BB/9 (5.2)////Has spent last for seasons in Boston (slight hitter’s park), and Cincinnati (moderate hitter’s park)////

3. Antonio Osuna (32): Signed with Nationals, 1 yr/$800,000 2004 Statistics- 2.45 ERA, 36.7 IP, 32 Hits, 3 HR, 11 BB, 36 K, 12.2 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 2.36 ERA, 7.5 H/9—0.6 HR/9—2.6 BB/9—7.3 K/9--////Career Statistics- 3.50 ERA, 486.3 IP, 423 Hits, 42 HR, 202 BB, 501 K////Translated Career Statistics- 3.39ERA, 7.3 H/9—0.8 HR/9—3.7 BB/9—7.8 K/9--////Career K/BB of 2.48/1--////In each of the last three seasons Osuna’s translated ERA (02’-3.42, 03’-3.12, 04’-2.36), ERA (02’-3.86, 03’-3.73, 04’-2.45), Hits allowed (02’-64, 03’-58, 04’-32), BB (02’-28, 03’-20, 04’-11), and translated BB/9 (02’-3.9, 03’-3.7, 04’-2.6) have all gotten better {04’ totals mostly are low due to Osuna being injured for part of season—but NOT as long as Williamson}, while in the same period Osuna’s translated HR/9 (02’-.2, 03’-.5, 04’-.6), and translated K/9 (02’-7.9, 03’-7.5, 04’-7.3) have gotten worse////Like Williamson, since Osuna was injured for part of 2004, his 04’ counting stats will not be in consideration for career-bests and worst////Spent last four seasons in San Diego (severe pitcher’s park), New York Yankees (slight pitcher’s park), and Chicago White Sox (slight hitter’s park)////

4. Ugueth Urbina (31): Option picked-up by Tigers 2004 Statistics- 4.50 ERA, 54.0 IP, 38 Hits, 7 HR, 32 BB, 56 K, 9.7 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 3.62 ERA, 5.1 H/9—0.8 HR/9—5.0 BB/9—8.6 K/9--////Career Statistics- 3.42 ERA, 617.7 IP, 483 Hits, 74 HR, 268 BB, 717 K////Translated Career Statistics- 2.98 ERA, 6.1 H/9—0.9 HR/9—3.6 BB/9—9.4 K/9--////Career K/BB of 2.67/1--////In each of the last three seasons Urbina’s translated BB/9 (02’-2.8, 03’-3.4, 04’-5.0), and BB totals (02’-24, 03’-31, 04’-32) have gotten worse////Has spent last four seasons in Boston (slight hitter’s park), Detroit (moderate hitter’s park), Florida (severe pitcher’s park), Montreal (severe hitter’s park), and Texas (severe hitter’s park)////

5. Troy Percival (35): Signed with Tigers, 2 years ($12 million) 2004 Statistics- 2.90 ERA, 49.7 IP, 43 Hits, 7 HR, 19 BB, 33 K, 15.7 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 2.87 ERA, 6.8 H/9—1.1 HR/9—3.2 BB/9—5.6 K/9--////Career Statistics- 2.99 ERA, 586.7 IP, 393 Hits, 63 HR, 253 BB, 680 K////Translated Career Statistics- 2.56 ERA, 5.2 H/9—0.8 HR/9—3.3 BB/9—10.1 K/9--////Career K/BB of 2.69/1--////In each of the last three seasons Percival’s BB totals (02’-25, 03’-23, 04’-19) have gotten better while his translated HR/9 (02’-.8, 03’-1.0, 04’-1.1), translated K/9 (02’-10.5, 03’-8.4, 04’-5.6), and total K’s (02’-68, 03’-48, 04’-43) have all gotten worse////2004 represented a career-worst K total (33), translated K/9 (5.6), translated HR/9 (1.1), and translated H/9 (6.8) for Percival////Has spent entire career in California/Anaheim (slight hitter’s park)////

6. Jim Mecir (35): Signed with Marlins, 1 year/$1.1 million 2004 Statistics- 3.59 ERA, 47.7 IP, 45 Hits, 5 HR, 19 BB, 49 K, 12.3 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 3.30 ERA, 8.0 H/9—0.8 HR/9—3.3 BB/9—8.5 K/9--////Career Statistics- 3.83 ERA, 483.7 IP, 443 Hits, 39 HR, 208 BB, 416 K////Translated Career Statistics- 3.28 ERA, 7.7 H/9—0.6 HR/9—3.4 BB/9—7.5 K/9--////Career K/BB of 2.00/1--////Mecir is building on NO recent trends, and 2004 did not represent any career-bests or worst for him////Has spent last four seasons in Oakland (neutral park)////

7. Ramiro Mendoza (33): 2004 Statistics- 3.52 ERA, 30.7 IP, 25 Hits, 3 HR, 7 BB, 13 K, 9.4 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 2.70 ERA, 6.6 H/9—0.7 HR/9—1.7 BB/9—3.4 K/9--////Career Statistics- 4.29 ERA, 796.0 IP, 889 Hits, 81 HR, 181 BB, 462 K////Translated Career Statistics- 3.59 ERA, 9.2 H/9—0.8 HR/9—1.5 BB/9—4.8 K/9--////Career K/BB of 2.55/1--////Since Mendoza’s IP has decreased each of the last three seasons (02’-91.7, 03’-66.7, 04’-30.7), two of his “counting” statistics have changed on the same curve: Hits allowed (02’-102, 03’-98, 04’-25) gets better, while total K’s (02’-61, 03’-36, 04’-13) gets worse////Because of his injury, resulting in less IP, I will disregard any of Mendoza’s counting stats in reference to his career-bests and worst//// Using translated per-nine-inning stats, 2004 represented a career-worst translated K/9 (3.4) for Mendoza, while also representing a career-best translated H/9 (6.6), and translated ERA (2.70)////In each of the last three seasons, Mendoza’s translated K/9 (02’-5.6, 03’-4.6, 04’-3.4) has gotten worse//// ////Spent last four seasons in Boston (slight hitter’s park), and New York Yankees (slight pitcher’s park)////

8. Jeff Nelson (38): Signed minor league deal with Mariners 2004 Statistics- 5.32 ERA, 23.7 IP, 17 Hits, 3 HR, 19 BB, 22 K, 0.5 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 4.13 ERA, 4.8 H/9—0.6 HR/9—7.0 BB/9—7.9 K/9--////Career Statistics- 3.38 ERA, 745.3 IP, 598 Hits, 51 HR, 401 BB, 793 K////Translated Career Statistics- 3.00 ERA, 6.6 H/9—0.5 HR/9—4.3 BB/9—9.5 K/9--////Career K/BB of 1.98/1--////In each of the last three seasons Nelson’s translated ERA (02’-3.54, 03’-3.59, 04’-4.13), and total BB (02’-27, 03’-24, 04’-19) have gotten better—lower total in 04’ can be attributed to less pitching (23.7 IP) because of injury////Due to injury, Nelson only pitched 23.7 innings in 2004////As with Mendoza, Osuna, and Williamson, I will disregard Nelson’s counting stats as factors in his career-bests and worst////Using Nelson’s translated per-nine-inning statistics, 2004 represented a career-worst translated BB/9 (7.0), and translated ERA (4.13)////Has spent last four seasons in Texas (severe hitter’s park), New York Yankees (slight pitcher’s park), and Seattle (severe pitcher’s park)////

9. Antonio Alfonseca (33): Signed with Florida, 2 years ($4.75 million) 2004 Statistics- 2.57 ERA, 73.7 IP, 71 Hits, 5 HR, 28 BB, 45 K, 22.7 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 2.56 ERA, 8.5 H/9—0.5 HR/9—3.2 BB/9—4.7 K/9--////Career Statistics- 3.89 ERA, 520.0 IP, 560 Hits, 47 HR, 202 BB, 355 K////Translated Career Statistics- 3.37 ERA, 9.0 H/9—0.7 HR/9—3.1 BB/9—5.2 K/9--////Career K/BB of 1.76/1--////In each of the last three seasons, Alfonseca’s total K’s (02’-61, 03’-51, 04’-45), and translated K/9 (02’-6.4, 03’-6.0, 04’-4.7) have gotten worse, while his translated BB/9 (02’-4.0, 03’-3.3, 04’-3.2) has gotten better////2004 represented a career-best translated ERA (2.56) and ERA (2.57) for Alfonseca, while also representing a career-worst K total (45) for him////Spent last four seasons in Florida (severe pithcer’s park), Chicago Cubs (slight pitcher’s park), and Atlanta (slight pitcher’s park)////

10. Steve Reed (39): Signed with Orioles, 1 year/$1.05 million 2004 Statistics- 3.68 ERA, 66.0 IP, 72 Hits, 7 HR, 17 BB, 38 K, 12.8 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 2.85 ERA, 8.3 H/9—0.7 HR/9—2.0 BB/9—4.4 K/9--////Career Statistics- 3.51 ERA, 838.0 IP, 770 Hits, 102 HR, 274 BB, 615 K////Translated Career Statistics- 2.98 ERA, 7.0 H/9—1.0 HR/9—2.7 BB/9—5.8 K/9--////Career K/BB of 2.24/1--////In each of the last three seasons Reed’s ERA (02’-2.02, 03’-3.27, 04’-3.68), translated ERA (02’-1.65, 03’-2.56, 04’-2.85), total K’s (02’-50, 03’-39, 04’-38), and translated K/9 (02’-5.9, 03’-4.8, 04’-4.4) have all gotten worse////2004 represented a career-worst translated K/9 (4.4) for Reed////Spent last four seasons in Colorado (severe hitter’s park), New York Mets (severe pitcher’s park), and San Diego (severe pitcher’s park)////

11. Dan Miceli (34): Signed contract to play in Japan 2004 Statistics- 3.59 ERA, 77.7 IP, 74 Hits, 10 HR, 27 BB, 83 K, 15.2 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 3.03 ERA, 7.5 H/9—0.9 HR/9—2.6 BB/9—8.8 K/9--////Career Statistics- 4.47 ERA, 650.3 IP, 640 Hits, 88 HR, 277 BB, 595 K////Translated Career Statistics- 4.01 ERA, 7.8 H/9—1.0 HR/9—3.4 BB/9—7.6 K/9--////Career K/BB of 2.15/1--////With Miceli only pitching 8.1 innings in 2002 due to injury, there are no recent trends of his to identify////2004 represented a career-best K total (83), and translated K/9 (8.8) for Miceli////Has spent last four seasons in Houston (moderate hitter’s park), Cleveland (neutral park), Colorado (severe hitter’s park), New York Yankees (slight pitcher’s park), Texas (severe hitter’s park), and Florida (severe pitcher’s park)////

12. Mike DeJean (4): Signed with Mets, 1 year ($1.15 million) 2004 Statistics- 4.57 ERA, 61.0 IP, 70 Hits, 2 HR, 33 BB, 60 K, 7.2 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 3.75 ERA, 9.4 H/9—0.3 HR/9—4.8 BB/9—8.0 K/9--////Career Statistics- 4.30 ERA, 559.3 IP, 589 Hits, 56 HR, 260 BB, 394 K////Translated Career Statistics- 3.45 ERA, 8.3 H/9—0.6 HR/9—3.5 BB/9—6.0 K/9--////Career K/BB of 1.51/1--////In each of the last three seasons DeJean’s translated H/9 (02’-7.3, 03’-8.0, 04’-9.4) has gotten worse////DeJean missed part of 2004 due to injury////Since DeJean was injured for part of 2004, I will disregard his 2004 counting stats for consideration in his career-bests and worst, but like the other injured pitchers, I will use his translated per-nine-inning statistics////2004 represented a career-worst translated H/9 (9.4), and translated BB/9 (4.8) for DeJean, while also representing a career-best translated K/9 (8.0), and a tie for his career-best HR/9 (0.3-1998)////Spent last four seasons in New York Mets (severe pitcher’s park), Baltimore (severe hitter’s park when he pitched there), St. Louis (moderate pitcher’s park), and Milwaukee (neutral park)////

Next up, right-handed relief pitchers #13-24.

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

Steroids: The Beginning of the End

2004-12-08T21:05:00.000-05:00

Steven Hanson writes a brief article explaining his feeling on the use of steroids by baseball players, and it’s effects on the game.

The purest of all sports has just made a tiny hiccup that could have massive effects on the game. Steroids, and other illegal enhancers, have served as some sort of a road block for the game, with rumors swirling at their peak as early as last year.

New York Yankee's first baseman Jason Giambi, after repeatedly telling reporters that he never took such steroids, has been heard confessing that he DID, in fact, take those substances earlier in his career.

It was reported that he received the substances from the same company that supplies them to Barry Bond's trainer-Greg Anderson. This same scenario could be linked to former Los Angeles Dodger, and current New York Yankee pitcher Kevin Brown, who was just recently found to be on steroids.

The biggest reason that a black cloud has seemed to form over the game is because of rumors that the single-season Home Run King, Barry Bonds could be taking the same performance enhancing drugs. This, all at a time when baseball was the cleanest it had been since the Pete Rose scandal.

Of course, we all have our assumptions as to who might be on such steroids. For me though, the dead giveaways are the all-so-sudden growth in players.

For example, if a player--Bret Boone for example--had gained 10 pounds of muscle in less than two years, I would be convinced.

The main problem this is causing is that it, in a sense, makes the game “fake.” Players are playing as someone they're not.

If you have been a fan of baseball for as long as you can remember, chances are that you feel the same way about this issue.

Steven Hanson

If you have any questions, concerns, comments, or suggestions, specific to this article, please do not hesitate to email Steven Hanson at bravest2@yahoo.com.

If you have any questions, concerns, comments, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

Free Agent Left-Handed Starting Pitchers

2004-12-08T01:34:00.000-05:00

Here is a look at the free-agent left-handed starting pitchers for 2004. There are only ten of them, which is miniscule compared to the amount of right-handers available that I reported on.

The only big surprise about this list may be the positioning of David Wells. For those wondering why I rank him so low, it is simply because of his age. I couldn’t rate Wells, who will be 42 next year, higher than some pitchers who were 35 years of age and under.

Al Leiter is so good though, that he overcame his age to rank number three on this list of whom I believe is the best available.

To clarify some statistics, the translated statistics are NOT just a pitchers un-translated statistics in a “per nine innings” form. Translated statistics, are the translated statistics which are figure or at Baseball Prospectus (like those of a hitters) in a “per nine innings” form.

Further explanations of translated statistics are in my article entitled “Free-Agent Catchers.”

Now, to the list:

1. Odalis Perez (28): Signed with Dodgers, 3 yrs/$24 million 2004 Statistics- 3.25 ERA, 196.3 IP, 180 Hits, 26 HR, 44 BB, 128K, 49.7 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 3.64 ERA, 8.5 H/9--1.1 HR/9--1.7 BB/9--5.0 K/9--////Career Statistics- 4.00 ERA, 803.0 IP, 771 Hits, 95 HR, 224 BB, 582 K////Translated Career Statistics- 4.25 ERA, 8.8 H/9--1.1 HR/9--2.1 BB/9--5.5 K/9--////Career K/BB of2.60/1--////2004 represented a career-best Hits allowed (180) for seasons in which he accumulated 100+ IP, but also represented a career-worst K total (128), and translated K/9 (5.0) under the same circumstances for Perez////2004 represented a career-worst translated K/9 for Perez (5.0)////In each of the last three seasons Perez's K totals (02'-155, 03'-141, 04'-128) have gotten worse////Has spent last four seasons in Atlanta (slight pitcher's park), and Los Angeles (severe pitcher's park)////

2. Eric Milton (29): Signed with Reds, 3 yrs/$25.5 million 2004 Statistics: 4.75 ERA, 201.0 IP, 196 Hits, 43 HR, 75 BB, 161 K, 18.7 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 4.74 ERA, 8.8 H/9--1.7 HR/9--2.9 BB/9--6.5 K/9--////Career Statistics- 4.76 ERA, 1188.3 IP, 1196 Hits, 192 HR, 344 BB, 876 K////Translated Career Statistics- 4.38 ERA, 8.7 H/9--1.2 BB/9--2.0 BB/9--6.5 K/9--////Career K/BB of 2.55/1--////Since Milton only pitched 17 innings in 2003 due to injury, there are no trends of his to identify////2004 represented a career-worst for Milton in HR allowed (43), BB (75), and translated HR/9////Spent last four seasons (excluding 2003 in Philadelphia (moderate hitter’s park), and Minnesota (neutral park)////

3. Al Leiter (39): Signed with Marlins, 1 year 2004 Statistics: 3.21 ERA, 173.7 IP, 138 Hits, 16 HR, 97 BB, 117 K, 46.2 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 3.26 ERA, 7.1 H/9--.7 HR/9--4.7 BB/9--5.4 K/9--////Career Statistics- 3.65 ERA, 2248.7 IP, 1198 Hits, 185 HR, 1065 BB, 1877 K////Translated Career Statistics- 3.83 ERA, 8.0 H/9--0.7 BB/9--HR, 3.8 B/9--6.9 K/9--////Career K/BB of 1.76/1--////Missed about a month of the 2004 season due to injury////2004 represented a tie for Leiter’s career-best in translated H/9 (7.1) in seasons which he accumulated 100+ IP////While in each of the last three seasons Leiter’s IP has decreased (02’-204.3, 03’-180.7, 04’-173.7), so have his Hits allowed totals (02’-194, 03’-176, 04’-138), and K’s (02’-172, 03’-139, 04’-117)////Also, in each of the last three seasons Leiter’s translated ERA (02’-4.31, 03’-4.05, 04’-3.26), and translated HR/9 (02’-1.0, 03’-.8, 04’-.7) have gotten better, while his translated BB/9 (02’-2.5, 03’-4.2, 04’-4.7), and translated K/9 (02’-6.8, 03’-6.3, 04’-5.4) have gotten worse////Spent last four seasons in New York Mets (severe pitcher’s park)////

4. Glendon Rusch (30): Signed with Cubs – 2 years/$4.0 million-- 2004 Statistics- 3.47 ERA, 129.7 IP, 127 Hits, 10 HR, 33 BB, 90 K, 27.8 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 3.69 ERA, 8.6 H/9--0.7 HR/9--2.0 BB/9--5.2 K/9--////Career Statistics- 4.93 ERA, 1163.3 IP, 1342 Hits, 143 HR, 346 BB, 850 K////Translated Career Statistics- 4.83 ERA, 10.0 H/9—1.0 HR/9—2.2 BB/9--5.7 K/9--////Career K/BB of2.46/1--////2004 represented a career-best ERA (3.47), Hits allowed (127 - excluding 1999 where Rusch only pitched 5 innings), HR allowed (10 - excluding 1999), BB (33 excluding 1999), translated H/9 (8.6), translated HR/9 (0.7 - excluding 1999), and translated ERA (3.69) for Rusch////In each of the last three seasons Rusch's Hit's allowed totals (02'-227, 03'-171, 04'-127), HR allowed totals (02'-30, 03'-11, 04'-10), BB (02'-76, 03'-45, 04'-33), and translated HR/9 (02'-1.3, 03'-.8, 04'-.7) have gotten better////Rusch's total K's (02'-140, 03'-93, 04'-90) has gotten worse each of the last three seasons////Spent last four seasons in Chicago (slight pitcher's park), Milwaukee (neutral park), and New York Mets (severe pitcher's park)////

5. Shawn Estes (32): Signed with Diamondbacks, 1 yr/$2.5 million 2004 Statistics: 5.84 ERA, 202.0 IP, 223 Hits, 30 HR, 105 BB, 117 K, (-3.6) VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 5.39 ERA, 9.1 H/9--1.2 HR/9--4.6 BB/9--4.3 K/9--////Career Statistics- 4.71 ERA, 1505.0 IP, 1521 Hits, 137 HR, 792 BB, 1124 K////Translated Career Statistics- 4.96 ERA, 8.8 H/9--0.8 BB/9--4.6 BB/9--5.5 K/9--////Career K/BB of 1.42/1--////2004 represented a career worst for Estes in ERA (5.84), and translated HR/9 (1.2) in seasons where he accumulated 100+ IP////2004 also represented career-worst numbers for Estes in Hits allowed (223), HR allowed (30), and translated K/9 (4.3)////In each of the last three seasons Estes’s translated HR/9 (02’-0.7, 03’-1.1, 04’-1.2), BB (02’-66, 03’-83, 04’-105), HR allowed (02’-12, 03’-20, 04’-30), Hits allowed (02’-133, 03’-182, 04’-223) statistics have all gotten worse, but these declining numbers can partly be attributed to a rise in IP each of the last three seasons (02’-132.7, 03’-152.3, 04’-202.0)////Has spent last four seasons in Colorado (severe hitter’s park), Chicago Cubs (slight pitcher’s park), New York Mets (severe pitcher’s park), Cincinnati (moderate hitter’s park), and San Francisco (severe pitcher’s park)////

6. David Wells (42): Signed with Red Sox, 2 years ($8 million) 2004 Statistics- 3.73 ERA, 195.7 IP, 203 Hits, 23 HR, 20 BB, 101 K, 40.3 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 3.89 ERA, 9.5 H/9--1.0 HR/9--0.5 BB/9--4.2 K/9--////Career Statistics- 4.03 ERA, 3022.3 IP, 3117 Hits, 353 HR, 644 BB, 1974 K////Translated Career Statistics- 3.94 ERA, 9.1 H/9--1.0 HR/9--1.3 BB/9--6.0 K/9--////Career K/BB of3.06/1--////2004 represented a tie for Well's career best BB total (20-2003 NYY) for seasons in which he has pitched 100+ innings////2004 also represented a tie for Well's career-worst translated K/9 (4.2-2003 NYY)////In each of the last three seasons Well's translated BB/9 (02'-1.6, 03'-.6, 04'-.5) has gotten better////Has spent last four seasons in New York Yankees (slight pitcher's park), San Diego (severe hitter's park), and Chicago White Sox (slight hitter's park)////

7. John Halama (33): Signed with Red Sox, 1 year ($1 million) 2004 Statistics: 4.70 ERA, 118.7 IP, 134 Hits, 17 HR, 27 BB, 59 K, 14.4 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 4.67 ERA, 9.5 H/9--1.2 HR/9--1.8 BB/9--4.0 K/9--////Career Statistics- 4.52 ERA, 816.7 IP, 931 Hits, 101 HR, 247 BB, 443 K////Translated Career Statistics- 4.76 ERA, 9.9 H/9--1.0 HR/9--2.3 BB/9--4.4 K/9--////Career K/BB of 1.79/1--////In each of the last three season Halama’s IP has increased (02’-101.0, 03’-108.7, 04’-118.7), while his ERA (02’-3.56, 03’-4.22, 04’-4.70), and Hits allowed totals (02’-112, 03’-117, 04’-134) have gotten worse////2004 represented a tie for Halama’s career best translated BB/9 (1.8, 2001)////Has spent last four seasons in Tampa Bay (neutral park), Oakland (neutral park), and Seattle (severe pitcher’s park)////

8. Darren Oliver (34): 2004 Statistics- 5.94 ERA, 72.2 IP, 87 Hits, 14 HR, 21 BB, 46 K, (-3.7) VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 5.80 ERA, 10.8 H/9--1.5 HR/9--2.0 BB/9--5.3 K/9--////Career Statistics- 5.07 ERA, 1407.0 IP, 1591 Hits, 172 HR, 582 BB, 834 K////Translated Career Statistics- 4.65 ERA, 9.6 H/9--0.9 HR/9--3.0 BB/9--5.3 K/9--////Career K/BB of 1.43/1--////In each of the last three seasons Oliver's translated ERA (02'-4.35, 03'-4.65, 04'-5.80), ERA (02'-4.66, 03'-5.44, 04'-5.94) have gotten worse, while in that same period Oliver's translated BB/9 (02'-3.9, 03'-2.5, 04'-2.0) has gotten better////2004 represented a career-best translated BB/9 (2.0) for Oliver////Oliver missed parts of the 2004 season due to a shoulder injury////Has spent last four seasons in Houston (moderate hitter's park), Florida (severe pitcher's park), Boston (slight hitter's park), Colorado (severe hitter's park), and Texas (severe hitter's park)////

9. Terry Mulholland (42): Signed minor league contract with Twins 2004 Statistics- 5.18 ERA, 123.3 IP, 163 Hits, 17 HR, 33 BB, 60 K, 9.6 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 4.89 ERA, 10.9 H/9--1.1 HR/9--2.1 BB/9--4.0 K/9--////Career Statistics- 4.41 ERA, 2513.7 IP, 2765 Hits, 286 HR, 663 BB, 1306 K////Translated Career Statistics- 4.82 ERA, 9.8 H/9--1.1 HR/9--2.0 BB/9--4.2 K/9--////Career K/BB of1.97/1--////As Mulholland's IP has risen each of the last three seasons (02'-79.0, 03'-99.0, 04'-123.0), his K totals (02'-38, 03'-42, 04'-60) and translated HR/9 (02'-1.6, 03'-1.5, 04'-1.1) have gotten better, while his Hits allowed (02'-101, 03'-117, 04'-163) have gotten worse////Spent last four seasons in Minnesota (neutral park), Cleveland (neutral park), Los Angeles (severe pitcher's park), and Pittsburgh (neutral park)////

10. Omar Daal (33): Out of baseball in 2004, 2003 Statistics: 6.34 ERA, 93.7 IP, 134 Hits, 11 HR, 30 BB, 53 K, (-5.6) VORP////Translated 2003 Statistics- 5.97 ERA, 11.9 H/9-- .9 HR/9--2.8 BB/9--4.9 K/9--////Career Statistics- 4.55 ERA, 1198.7 IP, 1250 Hits, 140 HR, 441 BB, 806 K////Translated Career Statistics- 4.66 ERA, 9.3 H/9--1.0 BB/9--2.9 BB/9--5.3 K/9--////Career K/BB of 1.83/1--////Since Daal was out of baseball in 2004, there are no trends of his to identify////Before leaving baseball after the 2003 season, Daal’s IP had decreased in each of the previous three years (01’-185.7, 02’-161.3, 03’-93.7) , resulting in an improvement in many of his counting statistics: Hits allowed (01’-199, 02’-142, 03’-134), HR allowed (01’-26, 02’-20, 03’-11), and BB (01’-56, 02’-54, 03’-30)////If you look at his translated per nine innings statistics in 01’, 02’, and ’03, you would see that Daal actually got worse in BB/9 (01’-2.3, 02’-2.5, 03’-2.8)////Spent last four seasons before 2004 in Baltimore (severe pitcher’s park when he pitched there), Los Angeles (severe pitcher’s park), and Philadelphia (moderate pitcher’s park)////

Next up, free agent relief pitchers.

There are many, many free agent relief pitchers. So, in order to cut down on unnecessary scouting reports being made for “ten IP per year pitchers, and the like,” I will make a qualifying standard for a relief pitcher to get a scouting report on the site.

I will let the qualifying standards be known when the first segments of the scouting reports are published.

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

Yankees Get Better

2004-12-04T23:22:00.000-05:00

On Friday, December 3, 2004 the New York Yankees made two trades. In the two trades the Yankees acquired RP Mike Stanton and $975,000 from the Mets for RP Felix Heredia. In the other trade, the Yankees acquired RP Felix Rodriguez from the Phillies for CF Kenny Lofton and $1.525 million.

To break down this trade, the statistics of each of the players must be looked at first. So here are each of the player's career, and 2004 statistics--translated, and un-translated:

Yankees Receive:

Mike Stanton (38 in 2005):

2004: 3.16 ERA, 77.0 IP, 70 Hits (8.2 H/9), 6 HR (.7 HR/9), 33 BB (3.9 BB/9), 58 K (6.8 K/9)
Translated: 3.54 ERA, 8.2 H/9--.7 HR/9--3.4 BB/9--6.3 K/9

Career: 3.76 ERA, 946.0 IP, 892 Hits (8.5 H/9), 82 HR (.8), 360 BB (3.4 BB/9), 780 K (7.4 K/9) Translated: 3.79 ERA, 8.4 H/9--.8 HR/9--2.9 BB/9--7.5 K/9

Felix Rodriguez (32 in 2005):

2004: 3.29 ERA, 65.2 IP, 61 Hits (8.4 H/9), 8 HR (1.1 HR/9), 29 BB (4.0 BB/9), 59 K (8.0 K/9)
Translated: 3.63 ERA, 8.1 H/9--1.0 HR/9--3.9 BB/9--6.6 K/9

Career: 3.41 ERA, 524.7 IP, 461 Hits (7.9 H/9), 43 HR (.7), 247 BB (4.2 BB/9), 479 K (8.2 K/9) Translated: 3.74 ERA, 7.9 H/9--.8 HR/9--4.1 BB/9--6.6 K/9

Mets Receive:

Felix Heredia (30 in 2005):

2004: 6.28 ERA, 38.7 IP, 44 Hits (10.2 H/9), 5 HR (1.2 HR/9), 20 BB (4.6 BB/9), 25 K (5.8 K/9)
Translated: 5.91 ERA, 9.5 H/9--1.1 HR/9--4.5 BB/9--5.3 K/9

Career: 4.44 ERA, 455.7 IP, 447 Hits (8.8 H/9), 45 HR (.9), 231 BB (4.6 BB/9), 349 K (6.9 K/9) Translated: 4.85 ERA, 8.5 H/9--.8 HR/9--4.3 BB/9--5.8 K/9

Phillies receive:

Kenny Lofton (38 in 2005):

2004: .275/.346/.395, 3 HR, 27/31 (0.84/1) K/BB, 7/3 (70 %) SB/CS
Translated: .282/.360/.405, .270 EqA

Career: .297/.372/.425, 118 HR, 882/812 K/BB (1.09/1) , 545/145 (79 %) SB/CS
Translated: .304/.379/.444, .289 EqA

Just by looking at the numbers above, we can see that the Yankees are getting some quality bullpen arms--one being a southpaw (Stanton), the other being a right-hander (Rodriguez). Combine that with the fact that they rid themselves of Heredia, and the Yankees already have a better bullpen going into 2005.

Also, with the Yankees having Bernie Williams and the money to afford free-agent Carlos Beltran, they could easily afford to lose Lofton.

We can also see that the Phillies are getting a very good center fielder in Lofton, with the only question mark being his age.

Lastly, we see the Mets are, far and away, getting the worst end of the trades. Heredia had a horrible year last season, and does not have good career statistics either.

So after looking at the numbers, we see how each team fared in the trades. As we all know though, “quality of player” is not the only factor considered in trades; saving money is considered also. So, if you’re wondering why the Mets made this trade, or just wondering how each team's payroll is affected, we must look at the money side of the deal.

Here are the numbers:

As stated earlier, the Yankees received $975,000 from the Mets to help pay the $4 million Stanton is due next season--the final year of his contract.

With Heredia's contract paying him $1.8 million in 2005, with a $2.5 millon option for 2006, and him being due $200,000 in 06' (regardless if his option is picked up or not); the Yankees are shipping out a guarenteed $2 million combined salary in 05' and 06'. Then, including the $975,000 sent to them by the Mets--the Yankees end up adding $1.025 million to their payroll through 2005-06'.

In the other half of the deal Felix Rodriguez and Kenny Lofton are both signed through 2005, with both making similar amounts of money next season, with Lofton getting $3.1 million and Rodriguez getting $3.15 million.

With the Yankees getting the player being paid $50,000 more, why are they giving the Phillies $1.525 million next season? I guess that the benefits of having the largest payroll in baseball.

In this deal, with Rodriguez’s salary adding $50,000 to the Yankees payroll, combined with them sending $1.525 million over to the Phillies, the Yankees are adding $1.575 million to their payroll next season.

Combine the two deals, and the Yankees are adding ($1.575 + $1.025) $2.6 million to their payroll through 2006.

In a quick look at the Mets, they save themselves $1.025 million the next two seasons by ridding themselves of Stanton's $4 million salary next season, picking up Heredia’s $2 million salary in 05’ and 06’, and combining that with their sending of $975,000 to the Yankees. (Stanton's $4 million, minus Heredia's $2 million on 05', and 06’, minus $975,000 sent to Yankees)

Then, to finalize the analysis of the money side of the deal, the Phillies, by saving $50,000 because of the difference in Rodriguez's and Lofton's salary, and by receiving $1.525 million from the Yankees, have an addition $1.575 to spend in 2005.

After looking at the quality of players exchanged, and the money aspects, the Yankees are the winners of this trade.

Even though they added the most money to their payroll (which they can afford--but for this argument I will pretend they are a normal team), they are getting two high-quality bullpen pitchers, while subtracting a player who was very expendable (Lofton), and also subtracting the troubled Heredia.

The Phillies come in a close second to the Yankees. They receive a very good player in Lofton, and added $1.575 million to their payroll next season. Even with the added money though, I'd have to say that, with Lofton and Stanton both being 38 next season, age affects a hitter more than it affects a bullpen left-hander, so the Phillies are getting more of a "question mark" than the Yankees.

The only team left is the clear and concise loser of the trades, the New York Mets. The old saying "One man's trash is another man's treasure," does not apply to the Mets picking up the Yankees trash (Heredia)--even though they saved $1.575 million. Heredia has shown no quality, or consistency throughout his career. If he were a right-hander, he might be out of baseball.

I guess the Mets are hoping that their pitcher-friendly ballpark, combined with the pitcher-friendly National League, will combine to make Heredia into a good situational left-hander. Good Luck.

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

Free-Agent Right-Handed Starting Pitchers (# 21-32)

2004-12-03T22:40:00.000-05:00

Now, with these scouting reports of right-handed starting pitchers (RHSP) #21-32, the book is closed on the scouting reports for RHSP.

You will notice that a lot of the pitchers on this list have been injury frequently, and recently--which is a reason they are on this “last third” of the list, which is ranked according to whom I believe is the best available.

****On a side note, EqERA is the same as translated ERA.****

21. Paul Wilson (32): Signed with Cincinnati (2 years-$8.2 million) 2004 Statistics: 4.36 ERA, 183.7 IP, 192 Hits, 26 HR, 63 BB, 117 K, 24.6 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 4.34 ERA, 9.1 H/9—1.2 HR/9—2.7 BB/9—5.0 K/9--////Career Statistics- 4.71 ERA, 895.3 IP, 961 Hits, 116 HR, 319 BB, 589 K////Translated Career statistics- 4.84 ERA, 9.2 H/9—1.1 HR/9—2.9 BB/9—5.3 K/9--////Career K/BB of 1.85/1--////2004 represented a career-best, ERA (4.36), and EqERA (4.34) for seasons in which Wilson has pitched 100+ innings////Has never pitched 200+ innings in entire 6-year career////Spent last four seasons in Cincinnati (moderate hitter’s park), and Tampa Bay (neutral park)////

22. Jose Lima (32): Signed with Royals, 1 year 2004 Statistics: 4.07 ERA, 170.3 IP, 178 Hits, 33 HR, 34 BB, 93 K, 28.0 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 4.29 ERA, 9.9 H/9—1.5 HR/9—1.3 BB/9—4.6 K/9--////Career Statistics- 5.00 ERA, 1381.7 IP, 1539 Hits, 233 HR, 322 BB, 888 K////Translated Career statistics- 4.77 ERA, 9.8 H/9—1.4 HR/9—1.5 BB/9—5.2 K/9--////Career K/BB of 2.76/1--////2004 was first season in which Lima pitched 150+ innings since 2000 (Houston)////Each of the last three seasons, Lima's ERA has gotten better (02'-7.77, 03'-4.91, 04'-4.07), while his BB totals have gotten worse (02'-21, 03'-26, 04'-34)--which is mostly due an increase in IP in each of those years (02'-68.3, 03'-73.3, 04'-170.3), ////Spent last four seasons in four different cities: Kansas City (severe hitter's park when he pitched there), Los Angeles (severe pitcher's park), Detroit (moderate pitcher's park), and Houston (moderate hitter's park)////

23. Jamey Wright (30): Signed with Rockies, 1 yr/$550,000 2004 Statistics: 4.12 ERA, 78.7 IP, 82 Hits, 8 HR, 45 BB, 41 K, 11.4 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 4.07 ERA, 8.7 H/9—0.8 HR/9—4.8 BB/9—4.1 K/9--////Career Statistics- 5.08 ERA, 1134.3 IP, 1241 Hits, 125 HR, 578 BB, 601 K////Translated Career statistics- 4.79 ERA, 9.6 H/9—0.8 HR/9—3.8 BB/9—4.5 K/9--////Career K/BB of 1.04/1--////Like Lima, has not pitched 150+ innings since 2001 (Milwaukee)////Has spent last four seasons in four different cities: Colorado (severe hitter's park), Kansas City (severe hitter's park when he pitched there), St. Louis (moderate hitter's park), and Milwaukee (neutral park)////

24. Ismael Valdez (31) Signed with Marlins, 1 year deal 2004 Statistics: 5.19 ERA, 170.0 IP, 202 Hits, 33 HR, 49 BB, 67 K, 3.9 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 5.52 ERA, 10.5 H/9—1.6 HR/9—2.4 BB/9—2.9 K/9--////Career Statistics- 4.05 ERA, 1776.7 IP, 1808 Hits, 228 HR, 501 BB, 1146 K////Translated Career statistics- 4.29 ERA, 9.0 H/9—1.2 HR/9—2.3 BB/9—4.8 K/9--////Career K/BB of 2.29/1--////In each of the last three seasons Valdez's HR allowed (02'-19, 03'-23, 04'-33), Hits allowed (02'-135, 03'-148, 04'-202), translated H/9 (02'-7.8, 03'-10.3, 04'-10.5), translated BB/9 (02'-2.0, 03'-2.2, 04'-2.4), and translated K/9 (02'-4.0, 03'-3.3, 04'-2.9) have gotten worse////2004 represented a career-worst translated K/9 (2.9) for Valdez////Spent last four seasons in five different cities: Florida (severe pitcher's park), San Diego (severe pitcher's park), Texas (severe hitter's park), Anaheim (slight pitcher's park), and Seattle (severe pitcher's park)////

25. Todd Van Poppel (33): 2004 Statistics: 6.09 ERA, 115.3 IP, 136 Hits, 22 HR, 32 BB, 72 K, (-6.5) VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 5.98 ERA, 10.2 H/9—1.5 HR/9—2.2 BB/9—4.7 K/9--////Career Statistics- 5.58 ERA, 907.0 IP, 944 Hits, 143 HR, 461 BB, 711 K////Translated Career statistics- 5.18 ERA, 8.7 H/9—1.3 HR/9—4.2 BB/9—6.4 K/9--////Career K/BB of 1.54/1--////Has not pitched 140+ innings in his entire 11-year career////2004 represented a career-worst HR allowed (22), and Hits allowed for Van Poppel (136)////In each of the last three seasons, Van Poppel's translated BB/9 (02'-3.5, 03'-2.5, 04'-2.2) has gotten better////Has spent last four seasons in Cincinnati (moderate hitter’s park), Texas (severe hitter's park), and Chicago Cubs (slight pitcher's park)////

26. Kevin Appier (37): Signed minor league contract with Angels 2003 Statistics (Last season Appier pitched 100+ innings): 5.40 ERA, 111.2 IP, 120 Hits, 21 HR, 43 BB, 55 K, 6.7 VORP////Translated 2003 Statistics- 5.24 ERA, 9.3 H/9—1.6 HR/9—3.5 BB/9—4.2 K/9--////Career Statistics- 3.74 ERA, 2595.3 IP, 2425 Hits, 232 HR, 933 BB, 1994 K////Translated Career statistics- 3.63 ERA, 8.2 H/9—0.8 HR/9—2.6 BB/9—7.0 K/9--////Career K/BB of 2.14/1--////Only pitched 4.0 innings in 04'////Since Appier was basically out of baseball in 2004, there are no trends of his to identify, but in each of the three seasons before 2004 his ERA (01'-3.57, 02-3.92, 03-5.40), K's (01'-172, 02'-132, 03'-55), translated HR/9 (01'-.9, 02'-1.1, 03'-1.6), translated BB/9 (01'-2.5, 02'-2.9, 03'-3.5), and translated K/9 (01'-6.3, 02'-5.8, 03'-4.2) had all gotten worse////Spent last four seasons (excluding 2004) in Kansas City (severe hitter's park when he pitched there), New York Mets (severe pitcher's park), and Anaheim (slight pitcher's park)////

27. Hideo Nomo (27): Signed minor league contract with Devil Rays 2004 Statistics: 8.25 ERA, 84.0 IP, 105 Hits, 19 HR, 42 BB, 54 K, (-23.2) VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 7.76 ERA, 10.8 H/9—1.8 HR/9—4.2 BB/9—4.9 K/9--////Career Statistics- 4.05 ERA, 1871.3 IP, 1631 Hits, 232 HR, 853 BB, 1856 K////Translated Career statistics- 4.30 ERA, 7.7 H/9—1.1 HR/9—3.9 BB/9—7.7 K/9--////Career K/BB of 2.18/1--////Last year, because of injuries and ineffectiveness, was the first year in which Nomo did not have at least 150 IP////2004 represented a career-worst for Nomo in ERA (8.25), translated ERA (7.76), translated H/9 (10.8), translated HR/9 (1.8), translated K/9 (4.9), and--because of lack of innings--K's (54)////Has spent last four seasons in Los Angeles (severe pitcher's park), and Boston (slight hitter's park)////

28. Steve Sparks (39): Signed minor league deal with Padres 2004 Statistics: 6.04 ERA, 120.7 IP, 139 Hits, 18 HR, 45 BB, 57 K, (-11.8) VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 5.68 ERA, 9.5 H/9—1.1 HR/9—2.8 BB/9—3.9 K/9--////Career Statistics- 4.88 ERA, 1319.7 IP, 1451 Hits, 154 HR, 520 BB, 658 K////Translated Career statistics- 4.64 ERA, 9.3 H/9—0.9 HR/9—2.9 BB/9—4.4 K/9--////Career K/BB of 1.26/1--////The reason it is so hard to scout Steve Sparks is because he is a KNUCKLEBALL PITCHER--which is the main reason Spark's has no identifiable trends in the last three seasons////But, 2004 represented a career-worst ERA (6.04), translated ERA (5.69), and translated K/9 (3.9) for Sparks////Spent last four seasons Arizona (severe hitter's park), Oakland (neutral park), and Detroit (moderate hitter's park)////

29. Ryan Dempster (28): Option picked up by Cubs 2003 Statistics (Last season in which Dempster threw 100+ innings) 6.54 ERA, 115.7 IP, 134 Hits, 14 HR, 70 BB, 84 K, (-15.9) VORP////Translated 2003 Statistics- 6.27 ERA, 9.7 H/9—1.0 HR/9—5.1 BB/9—5.7 K/9--////Career Statistics- 4.99 ERA, 984.7 IP, 1024 Hits, 121 HR, 516 BB, 796 K////Translated Career statistics- 5.00 ERA, 9.1 H/9—1.0 HR/9—4.4 BB/9—6.1 K/9--////Career K/BB of 1.54/1--////In 2004 Dempster only had 20.7 IP for the Chicago Cubs because of injury////Before being basically out of baseball in 2004, Dempster's recent trends in ERA (01'-4.94, 02'-5.38, 03'-6.54), translated ERA (01'-5.16, 02'-5.40, 03'-6.27), translated H/9- (01'-9.2, 02'-9.6, 03'-9.7), total K's (01'-171, 02'-153, 03'-84) had all gotten worse////Dempster's recent trend in BB (01'-112, 02'-93, 03'-70) had gotten better before 2004////Has spent last four seasons in Cincinnati (moderate hitter's park), Florida (severe pitcher's park), and Chicago Cubs (slight pitcher's park)////

30. Andy Ashby (37): 2002 Statistics (Last season in which Ashby threw 100+ innings): 3.91 ERA, 181.7 IP, 179 Hits, 20 HR, 65 BB, 107 K, 26.0 VORP////Translated 2002 Statistics- 4.46 ERA, 9.4 H/9—1.0 HR/9—2.7 BB/9—4.7 K/9--////Career Statistics- 4.12 ERA, 1810.7 IP, 1857 Hits, 205 HR, 540 BB, 1173 K////Translated Career statistics- 4.46 ERA, 9.1 H/9—1.0 HR/9—2.3 BB/9—5.2 K/9--////Career K/BB of 2.17/1--////Three of the last four seasons, Ashby has not had more than 75 IP////Only pitched 2.0 innings in 2004////Since 2002 was last season with more than 100 IP, and in 2001 he only had 11.2 IP, there are no trends of Ashby's to identify////Spent last four season (mostly injured) in Los Angeles (severe pitcher's park), and San Diego (severe pitcher's park)////

31. Todd Ritchie (33): Signed minor league contract with Pirates 2002 Statistics (Last season in which Ritchie threw 100+ innings): 6.06 ERA, 133.7 IP, 176 Hits, 18 HR, 52 BB, 77 K, (-15.2) VORP////Translated 2002 Statistics- 6.31 ERA, 11.2 H/9—1.1 HR/9—3.2 BB/9—4.9 K/9--////Career Statistics- 4.71 ERA, 835.7 IP, 929 Hits, 104 HR, 262 BB, 516 K////Translated Career statistics- 4.75 ERA, 9.6 H/9—1.0 HR/9—2.3 BB/9—5.0 K/9--////Career K/BB of 1.97/1--////In 2004 Ritchie had only 8.0 IP, and in 2003 he only had 28.3////Before Ritchie basically left baseball (because of injury) after 2002, his recent trend in HR allowed (00'-26, 01'-23, 02'-18) had gotten better////Has spent last four seasons in Pittsburgh (neutral park), Chicago White Sox (slight hitter's park), Milwaukee (neutral park), and Tampa Bay (neutral park)////

32. Pedro Astacio (35): Signed one-year contract with Rangers 2002 Statistics (Last season in which Astacio threw 100+ innings): 4.79 ERA, 191.7 IP, 192 Hits, 32 HR, 63 BB, 152 K, 11.2 VORP////Translated 2002 Statistics- 5.04 ERA, 8.9 H/9—1.5 HR/9—2.6 BB/9—5.8 K/9--////Career Statistics- 4.61 ERA, 1979.7 IP, 2050 Hits, 260 HR, 658 BB, 1544 K////Translated Career statistics- 4.68 ERA, 8.9 H/9—1.2 HR/9—2.7 BB/9—5.8 K/9--////Career K/BB of 2.35/1--////Astacio only had 8.7 IP in 2004, and only 36.7 in 2003////Three of the last four seasons, Astacio has not had more than 40 IP////Since 2002 was Astacio's last season with more than 100 IP, and in 2001 he only had 28.7 IP, there are no trends of Astacio's to identify////Spent last four seasons (mostly injured) in Boston (slight hitter's park), New York Mets (severe pitcher's park), and Houston (moderate hitter's park)////

Next up, free agent left-handed starting pitchers (LHSP).

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

Free-agent Right-Handed Starting Pitchers (#11-20)

2004-11-30T23:25:00.000-05:00

Now a look at free-agent right-handed starting pitchers (RHSP), numbers 11 through 20 (according to my ranking).

As always, each free-agent is ranked according to whom I believe is the best available.

11. Jon Lieber (35): Signed with Phillies, 3 years ($21 million) 2004 Statistics- 4.33 ERA, 176.7 IP, 216 Hits, 20 HR, 18 BB, 102 K, 27.3 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 4.28 ERA, 10.3 H/9--.9 HR/9--.5 BB/9--4.9 K/9--////Career Statistics- 4.20 ERA, 1687.0 IP, 1819 Hits, 208 HR, 329 BB, 1223 K////Translated career statistics- 4.33 ERA, 9.4 H/9--1.0 HR/9--1.2 BB/9--5.8 K/9--////Career K/BB of 3.72/1--////Since Lieber was out of baseball in 2003 (Tommy John Surgery), there are no recent trends of his to identify////Was injured for part of 2004 season////Excluding 1995 season (only 72.7 IP), 2004 represented a career-worse for Lieber in translated H/9 (10.3), and tied a career-worst for translated K/9 (4.9)////2004 represented a career-best in BB (18), for seasons in which has had pitcher 150+ innings////Spent last four seasons in Chicago Cubs (slight pitcher’s park), and New York Yankees (slight pitcher’s park)////

12. Kevin Millwood (30): Signed with Indians, 1yr/$7 million 2004 Statistics- 4.85 ERA, 140.0 IP, 155 Hits, 14 HR, 51 BB, 125 K, 9.3 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 4.99 ERA, 9.9 H/9--.8 HR/9--2.9 BB/9--7.2 K/9--////Career Statistics- 3.89 ERA, 1367.3 IP, 1283 Hits, 138 HR, 422 BB, 1134 K////Translated career statistics- 4.15 ERA, 8.6 H/9--.9 HR/9--2.3 BB/9--6.4 K/9--////Career K/BB of 2.69/1--////Like Lieber, Millwood was also injured for part of the 2004 season////Excluding Millwood’s rookie season of 1997 (only 51.3 IP), 2004 represented a career-worst ERA (4.85), translated ERA (4.99), translated H/9 (9.9), and translated BB/9 (2.9)////Recent EqERA trend is getting worst (02-3.64, 03-4.32, 04-4.99), as well as his recent trends in translated BB/9 (02-2.2, 03-2.5, 04-2.9), translated H/9 (02-8.2, 03-8.6, 04-9.9), un-translated ERA (02-3.24, 03-4.01, 04-4.85)////Spent last four seasons in Philadelphia (moderate hitter's park), and Atlanta (slight pitcher’s park)////

13. Russ Ortiz (31): Signed with Arizona, 4 years ($33 million) 2004 Statistics- 4.13 ERA, 204.7 IP, 197 Hits, 23 HR, 112 BB, 143 K, 33.1 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 4.35 ERA, 8.6 H/9--1.0 HR/9--4.8 BB/9--5.3 K/9--////Career Statistics- 4.00 ERA, 1341.7 IP, 1223 Hits, 131 HR, 682 BB, 1004 K////Translated career statistics- 4.44 ERA, 8.2 H/9--.9 HR/9--4.4 BB/9--5.6 K/9--////Career K/BB of 1.47/1--//// Recent trend in ERA is getting worse (02-3.61, 03-3.81, 04-4.13), as well as Ortiz’s trends in HR allowed (02-15, 03-17, 04-23), BB (02-94, 03-102, 04-112), translated HR/9 (02-0.7, 03-0.8, 04-1.0), and translated BB/9 (02-3.6, 03-4.0, 04-4.8)////Has pitched 200+ innings each of the last four seasons////Spent last four seasons in San Francisco (severe pitcher’s park), and Atlanta (slight pitcher’s park)////

14. Woody Williams (38): Signed with Padres, 1 year($3.5 million) 2004 Statistics- 4.18 ERA, 189.7 IP, 193 Hits, 20 HR, 58 BB, 131 K, 28.5 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 4.52 ERA, 9.5 H/9--.9 HR/9--2.4 BB/9--5.6 K/9--////Career Statistics- 4.05 ERA, 1723.3 IP, 1675 Hits, 229 HR, 572 BB, 1201 K////Translated career statistics- 3.99 ERA, 8.7 H/9--1.1 HR/9--2.4 BB/9--5.8 K/9--////Career K/BB of 2.10/1--//// Even though Williams only pitched 103.3 inning in 2002, it is note-worthy that his recent trends in ERA (02-2.53, 03-3.87, 04-4.18), EqERA (02-2.78, 03-4.18, 04-4.52), translated H/9 (02-7.8, 03-9.1, 04-9.5), translated BB/9 (02-1.7, 03-1.8, 04-2.4), and translated K/9 (02-5.9, 03-5.7, 04-5.6) are all getting worse each year////Has spent last four seasons in St. Louis (moderate pitcher’s park), and San Diego (severe pitcher’s park)////

15. Corey Lidle (33): Signed with Philadelphia (2 years-$6.3 million) 2004 Statistics- 4.90 ERA, 211.1 IP, 224 Hits, 27 HR, 61 BB, 126 K, 12.3 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 4.95 ERA, 9.3 H/9--1.0 HR/9--2.2 BB/9--4.8 K/9--////Career Statistics- 4.52 ERA, 967.3 IP, 1009 Hits, 111 HR, 258 BB, 587 K////Translated career statistics- 4.58 ERA, 9.1 H/9--.9 HR/9--2.0 BB/9--5.0 K/9--////Career K/BB of 2.27/1--////2004 represented a career-worst for Lilly in Hits allowed (224), HR allowed (27), BB (61), and a tie for his career-worst K/9 (4.8-2002)////Lilly’s recent trends in Hits allowed (02-191, 03-216, 04-224), BB (02-39, 03-60, 04-61), and HR allowed (02-17, 03-24, 04-27) have all gotten worse each year////Lilly’s recent trend in total K’s (02-111, 03-112, 04-126) has gotten better each year—although, his IP has risen each year in the same period (02-192, 03-192.7, 04-211.1)////Has spent last four season’s in Philadelphia (moderate hitter's park), Cincinnati (neutral), Toronto moderate hitter's park) and Oakland (neutral park)////

16. Derek Lowe (32): Signed with Dodgers, 4 yrs/$36 million 2004 Statistics- 5.42 ERA, 182.7 IP, 224 Hits, 15 HR, 71 BB, 105 K, (-11.5) VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 5.74 ERA, 10.1 H/9--.6 HR/9--3.2 BB/9--4.8 K/9--////Career Statistics- 3.88 ERA, 1090.0 IP, 1083 Hits, 80 HR, 332 BB, 712 K////Translated career statistics- 3.85 ERA, 8.5 H/9--.6 HR/9--2.3 BB/9--5.6 K/9--////Career K/BB of 2.14/1--////Lowe’s EqERA (translated ERA) has gotten worse each of the last three seasons (02’-2.57, 03’-4.48, 04’-5.74), at the same time, Lowe’s translated H/9 (02’-6.9, 03’-8.9, 04’-10.1), translated BB/9 (02’-1.6, 03’-3.1, 04’-3.2), un-translated ERA (02’-2.58, 03’-4.47, 04’-5.42), total hits allowed (02’-166, 03’-216, 04’-224), and K’s (02’127, 03’-110, 04’-105) have also gotten worse////Lowe has pitched less innings in each of the last three seasons (02’-219.7, 03’-203.3, 04’-182.7)////2004 represented a career-worst ERA (5.42) for Lowe in seasons in which he has pitched 100+ innings////2004 also represented a career-worst for Lowe in Hits allowed (224), translated ERA (EqERA- 5.74), translated H/9 (10.1) and translated BB/9 (3.2)////Spent last four seasons in Boston (slight hitter’s park)////

17. Aaron Sele (35): Signed minor league contract with Mariners 2004 Statistics- 5.05 ERA, 132.0 IP, 163 Hits, 16 HR, 51 BB, 51 K, 7.4 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 4.99 ERA, 10.5 H/9--.9 HR/9--3.0 BB/9--3.5 K/9--////Career Statistics- 4.52 ERA, 1880.0 IP, 2068 Hits, 191 HR, 706 BB, 1268 K////Translated career statistics- 4.30 ERA, 9.6 H/9--.8 HR/9--2.7 BB/9--6.2 K/9--////Career K/BB of 1.80/1--////2004 represented a career-low for K’s (51) in any season in which Sele has pitched 100+ innings////2004 also represented a career-low translated K/9 (3.5) for Sele)////Each of the last three seasons, Sele’s translated K/9 (02’-4.4, 03’-3.9, 04’-3.5), and total K’s (02’-82, 03’-53, 04’-51) have dropped////Spent last four seasons in Anaheim (slight pitcher’s park), and Seattle (severe pitcher’s park)////

18. Paul Byrd (34): Signed with Angels, 1 year ($5 million) 2004 Statistics- 3.94 ERA, 114.3 IP, 123 Hits, 18 HR, 19 BB, 79 K, 16.2 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 4.50 ERA, 9.7 H/9--1.4 HR/9--1.1 BB/9--5.2 K/9--////Career Statistics- 4.33 ERA, 907.3 IP, 919 Hits, 137 HR, 262 BB, 552 K////Translated career statistics- 4.51 ERA, 8.8 H/9--1.3 HR/9--2.2 BB/9--4.7 K/9--////Career K/BB of 2.11/1--////Since Byrd was out of baseball in 2003 (Tommy John surgery), there are no trends of his to identify////Byrd has pitched 200+ innings only once in his career (228.3-2002), and the following season needed Tommy John surgery to repair his pitching arm////Spent last four seasons in Atlanta (slight pitcher’s park), KC (a severe hitter’s park when he pitched there), and Philadelphia (moderate hitter’s park)////

19. Brett Tomko (32): Option picked-up by San Francisco 2004 Statistics- 4.04 ERA, 194.0 IP, 196 Hits, 19 HR, 64 BB, 108 K, 26.2 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 4.43 ERA, 8.8 H/9--.8 HR/9--2.7 BB/9--4.2 K/9--////Career Statistics- 4.53 ERA, 1236.7 IP, 1273 Hits, 173 HR, 407 BB, 818 K////Translated career statistics- 4.75 ERA, 9.2 H/9--1.2 HR/9--2.6 BB/9--5.1 K/9--////Career K/BB of 2.01/1--////2004 represented a career-best total Hits allowed (196) for Tomko in seasons which he has pitched at least 150 innings; under those same circumstances though, 2004 also represented a career-low for K’s (108)//// 2004 represented a career-best in translated HR/9 (.8) for Tomko; while also representing a career-low translated K/9 (4.2)////Tomko’s total in K’s (02’-126, 03’-114, 04’-108), and ratios in translated K/9 (02’-4.6, 03’-4.3, 04’-4.2) have gotten worse each of the past three seasons////Also, in each of the last three seasons, Tomko has pitched less innings (02’-204.3, 03’-202.7, 04’-194.0) ////Has spent last four seasons in four different cities: San Francisco (severe pitcher’s park), Seattle (severe pitcher’s park), SD (severe pitcher’s park), and St. Louis (moderate pitcher’s park)—Man, did he choose the right cities to pitching in, all 3 out of 4 are severe pitcher’s parks, and the other is a moderate pitcher’s park////

20. Esteban Loaiza (33): Signed with Nationals, 1 yr/$2.9 million 2004 Statistics- 5.70 ERA, 183.0 IP, 217 Hits, 32 HR, 71 BB, 117 K, 2.8 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 5.24 ERA, 10.1 H/9--1.3 HR/9--3.0 BB/9--5.5 K/9--////Career Statistics- 4.70 ERA, 1663.0 IP, 1883 Hits, 210 HR, 484 BB, 1082 K////Translated career statistics- 4.49 ERA, 9.7 H/9--1.0 HR/9--2.1 BB/9--5.6 K/9--////Career K/BB of 3.72/1--////In each of the last three seasons Loaiza’s BB totals (02’-38, 03’-56, 04’-71), Hits allowed totals (02’-192, 03’-196, 04’-217), and translated BB/9 (02’-1.9, 03’-2.0, 04’-3.0) have all gotten worse////2004 represented a career-worst for Loaiza in HR allowed (32), and translated BB/9 (3.0)////Spent last four seasons in New York Yankees (slight pitcher’s park), Chicago White Sox (slight hitter’s park), and Toronto (moderate hitter’s park)////

Next, I finish the scouting reports for RHSP, with numbers 21-32.

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

A's/Pirates Trade

2004-11-27T19:18:00.000-05:00

On November 27, 2004 a trade between the Oakland A's and the Pittsburgh Pirates was announced. In the trade the Oakland A's sent SP Mark Redman, and RP Arthur Rhodes, to Pittsburgh for C Jason Kendall. The trade actually took place on Wednesday, November 24, 2004, but wasn't announced until today so all the involved players could pass a physical.

In Kendall the A's receive a catcher whose translated career, and 2004 statistics look like so:

2004- .321/.400/.394, .280 EqA (Untranslated totals= 3 HR, 41/60 K/BB)

Career- .303/.383/.417, .281 EqA (Untranslated K/BB= 454/403 (1.13/1))

The A's are without a doubt getting an elite catcher (How can you argue with a career translated OBP of .383--for a catcher!!!!), who has remained pretty steady throughout his career--he's only had one year with a sub-.280 AVG, and one year with a sub-.350 OBP.

On the other end of the trade the Pirates are receiving SP Mark Redman, and RP Arthur Rhodes.

Rhode's and Redman's translated career and 2004 statistics:

Redman: 2004-4.62 ERA, 10.0 H/9, 1.1 HR/9, 2.8 BB/9, 4.7 K/9

Career- 4.20 ERA, 9.2 H/9, .9 HR/9, 2.3 BB/9, 5.7 K/9

Rhodes: 2004-4.85 ERA, 10.1 H/9, 1.9 HR/9, 4.9 BB/9, 7.0 K/9

Career- 4.16 ERA, 7.9 H/9, 1.0 HR/9, 3.5 BB/9, 8.7 K/9

The Pirates are getting two pitchers who are better than average in their career (using a 4.50 EqERA as "average"), but are coming off below-average seasons.

Throughout their careers both Rhodes and Redman have been very inconsitent; and at Rhode's age (35 in 2005), I wouldn't expect any repeat performances of his 2001 (1.72 ERA in 68.0 IP) or 2002 (2.33 ERA in 69.7 IP) seasons.

As for Redman, he is still young enough (31 in 2005) to possibly have a repeat of his 2003 season (3.59 ERA in 190.7 IP); but looking at the inconsistency throughout his career, it is not a safe bet.

So, in the end, one must ask, "Why did the Pirates trade away an elite catcher for two inconsitent pitchers?"

The answer to that question is the same every time, when it comes to trades: "Saving Money."

Here are the financial numbers:

Kendall will make $9.5 million in 2005.

Redman will make $4.25 in 2005, and Rhodes will make $3.07 million. The two will combine to make $7.32 million in 2005.

There is a differnce of $2.18 million in contracts, of which I've read nothing about Pittsburgh paying in 2005. But what I have read is:

"According to several reports, the A's will send Pittsburgh $1 million in each of the next two seasons, and the Pirates will send Oakland $5 million in 2007, when Kendall is scheduled to make $13 million."

-Mychael Urban at MLB.com

According to my figures (which are slightly different from Urban's) Redman and Rhodes are scheduled to make a combined $15.34 million in 2005 and 2006, and Kendall is due to make $20 million in that same period.

Subtract the $15.34 million from $20 million, and the difference is $4.66 million added to Oaklands payroll. Next, add the $1 million that the A's are going to send Pittsburgh in 05', and 06' ($2 million total), and the sum is $6.66 million dollars added to Oakland's payroll in 05' and 06'.

In 2005 and 06' Oakland will end up paying $3.33 million dollars per year for Kendall's services.

Then, finally, since the Pirates will send Oakland $5 million in 2007, you must subtract that from the $6.66 million to come up with a $1.66 million dollars added to Oakland's payroll through 05', 06', and 07'.

In 2007 though, Oakland will be due to pay the difference in Kendall's $12.5 million dollar salary, minus the $5 million Pittsburgh will send them, of $7.5 million, if they want to keep him. My guess is that he will be traded by then.

I see this trade as a way for Pittsburgh to save a massive amount of money. In 2007 (the year after Rhode's and Redman's contracts run out) the $17 million they would owe Kendall in 07', and 08' will be off their hands. They can use that money to sign, or resign, better, younger players.

After crunching all of these numbers, I believe Oakland will get the best of this deal. For the next two seasons, Oakland will only have to pay $3.33 million a year for Kendall, and in the end they will only be adding $1.66 dollars to their payroll. That is a great deal in the end--only adding $1.66 million to your payroll for two years of Jason Kendall.

After 2006 though, the Pirates will have alot of free money ($17 million) because of this trade; something coveted by every team in Major League Baseball.

I give the edge to Oakland though because of how good Kendall is, and the price they are paying for him. For the next two years, Oakland has a legitimate star behind the plate--one of the hardest position to find stars in.

Please note that my prediction does not include any references to how farmhands on Oakland, such as Joe Blanton and Huston Street, will perform when called up to replace Redman and Rhodes.

Not using farm systems, or predicting future performances of farmhands, this trade will favor Oakland.

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concersn, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

Free-Agent Right-Handed Starting Pitchers (#1-10)

2004-11-26T17:35:00.000-05:00

*****Edit (11/27/2004-10:11 AM)--I've tweaked the system I use to rank these free-agents a little bit, resulting in some minor changes in the rankings. The top ten remained the same, the order is just a little different throughout the bottom five. The list that appears in this artilce is edited, and is the proper order, according to my rankings.****

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Now, a look at the top ten free-agent right-handed starting pitchers (RHSP).

Pitcher's scouting reports are read the same way as the positions player's were, there are just different statistics.

Just like the translated statistics for the position players, the translated statistics for pitchers are presented in the scouting reports.

All translations are courtesy of Baseball Prospectus, and are done by Clay Davenport.

Again, translated statistics are player's numbers adjusted for ballpark factors, quality of competition (hitting), and league pitching level.

Remember, these are only the first ten RHSP according to my rankings as to whom I believe is the best available.

There are twenty-two more free-agents RHSP. Numbers 11-20 will be presented in my next article, and 21-32 will be in the third and final article on right-handers.

1. Pedro Martinez (33): Signed With Mets, 4 years (53 million) 2004 Statistics- 3.90 ERA, 217 IP, 193 Hits, 26 HR, 61 BB, 217 K, 51.2 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 3.69 ERA, 7.7 H/9--.9 HR/9--2.1 BB/9--8.7 K/9--////Career Statistics- 2.71 ERA, 2296 IP, 1746 Hits, 175 HR, 615 BB, 2653 K--////Translated Career Statistics- 2.80 ERA, 6.8 H/9--.7 HR/9--2 BB/9--9.8 K/9--////Career K/BB of 4.31/1--////2004 represented a career-worse ERA (3.90) and translated ERA (3.69) for Martinez, as well as a tie for a career-worst in HR allowed (26), and a career-worst Hits allowed (193)////2004 was the first season since 2000 with 200+ IP for Martinez////Each of the last three seasons, Martinez's BB totals have gone up (02'-40, 03'-47, 04'-61), as have his number of Hits allowed (02'-144, 03'-147, 04'-193) ////Has spent last four seasons in Boston (slight hitter's park)////

2. Roger Clemens (42): Signed with Astros, 1 year/$18 million 2004 Statistics- 2.98 ERA, 214.3 IP, 169 Hits, 15 HR, 79 BB, 218 K, 61.3 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 3.04 ERA, 6.9 H/9--.6 HR/9--2.9 BB/9--8.2 K/9--////Career Statistics- 3.18 ERA, 4493 IP, 3846 Hits, 336 HR, 1458 BB, 4317 K--////Translated Career Statistics- 3.04 ERA, 6.9 H/9--.6 HR/9--2.9 BB/9--8.2 K/9--////Career K/BB of 2.96/1--////Recent EqERA trend is getting better (02'-4.39, 03'-3.88, 04'-3.04)////Clemen's translated H/9 have gotten better each of the last three seasons (02'-8.4, 03'-8.1, 04'-6.9), while his IP have gone up each of the last 3 seasons (02'-180.0, 03'-211.7, 04'-214.3)////Has spent last four seasons in Houston (moderate hitter's park), and New York Yankees (slight pitcher's park)////

3. Carl Pavano (29): Signed with Yankees, 4 years (38 million) 2004 Statistics- 3.00 ERA, 222.3 IP, 212 Hits, 13 HR, 49 BB, 139 K, 62.4 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 3.19 ERA, 8.7 H/9--.6 HR/9--1.6 BB/9--5.2 K/9--////Career Statistics- 4.21 ERA, 937.7 IP, 985 Hits, 95 HR, 271 BB, 617 K--////Translated Career Statistics- 4.27 ERA, 9.3 H/9--.8 HR/9--2.1 BB/9--5.3 K/9--////Career K/BB of 2.28/1--////Only in 2004 and 2003 has Pavano amassed more than 200 IP in a season////2004 represents a career-best ERA (3.00), translated ERA (3.19), translated BB/9 (1.6), and K's (139)////2004 also represented a career-worst IP (222.3), Hits allowed (212-because of more innings pitched), and a tie for his career-worst BB (49)////Recent EqERA trend is getting better (02'-6.09, 03'-4.31, 04'-3.19)////Has spent last four seasons in Florida (severe pitcher's park), and Montreal (severe hitter's park)////

4. Brad Radke (32): Signed with Twins, 2 years ($18 million) 2004 Statistics- 3.48 ERA, 219.7 IP, 229 Hits, 23 HR, 26 BB, 143 K, 60.1 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 3.35 ERA, 8.9 H/9--.8 HR/9--.6 BB/9--5.5 K/9--////Career Statistics- 4.23 ERA, 2088.0 IP, 2232 Hits, 269 HR, 390 BB, 1267 K--////Translated Career Statistics- 3.84 ERA, 9.2 H/9--1.0 HR/9--1.0 BB/9--5.4 K/9--////Career K/BB of 3.25/1--////Recent EqERA trend is getting better (02'-4.56, 03'-4.32, 04'-3.35)////Excluding Radke's injury-shortened 2002 season, 2004 represented a tie for his career-best BB (26), and a career best HR allowed (23)////2004 also represented a career-best ERA (3.48) for Radke////Has spent entire 10-year career in Minnesota (neutral park)////

5. Jaret Wright (29): Signed with Yankees, 3 years ($21 million) 2004 Statistics- 3.28 ERA, 186.3 IP, 168 Hits, 11 HR, 70 BB, 159 K, 40.3 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 3.84 ERA, 8.3 H/9--.5 HR/9--3.0 BB/9--6.8 K/9--////Career Statistics- 5.09 ERA, 758.3 IP, 796 Hits, 80 HR, 369 BB, 569 K--////Translated Career Statistics- 4.76 ERA, 9.0 H/9--.8 HR/9--3.8 BB/9--6.5 K/9--////Career K/BB of 1.54/1--//// 2004 represented a career-best ERA (3.28), a career-high K total (159), and a career-best translated HR/9 (.5) for Wright////Spent parts of the last 6 seasons, before 2004, rehabilitating from injury, or in the minors////Spent last four seasons in Atlanta (slight pitcher's park), San Diego (severe pitcher's park), and Cleveland (neutral park)////

6. Orlando Hernandez (35): Signed with White Sox, 2 years ($8 million) 2004 Statistics- 3.30 ERA, 84.7 IP, 73 Hits, 9 HR, 36 BB, 84 K, 27.6 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 3.07 ERA, 7.4 H/9--.9 HR/9--3.6 BB/9--8.0 K/9--////Career Statistics- 3.96 ERA, 876.3 IP, 781 Hits, 114 HR, 304 BB, 703 K--////Translated Career Statistics- 3.78 ERA, 7.7 H/9--1.0 HR/9--2.6 BB/9--6.8 K/9--////Career K/BB of 2.31/1--////Since Hernandez didn't start pitching (because of injury) until after the All-Star break, naturally 2004 represented career-bests for Hernandez in Hits allowed (73), HR allowed (9), and tied a career-best for BB allowed (36), translated H/9 (7.4), translated HR/9 (.9), and K/9 (8.0)////A tired arm kept Hernandez sidelined for much of the last month of the season in 2004////Has only pitched 200+ innings once in his career (214.3, 1999-NY Yankees)////Since Hernandez was out of baseball in 2003 (arm injury) there are no identifiable trends to notice of his////Spent entire six-year career in New York Yankees (slight pitcher's park)////

7. Matt Morris (30): Signed with Cardinals, 1 year ($2.5 million) 2004 Statistics- 4.72 ERA, 202.0 IP, 205 Hits, 35 HR, 56 BB, 131 K, 13.4 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 5.24 ERA, 9.3 H/9--1.4 HR/9--2.2 BB/9--5.0 K/9--////Career Statistics- 3.53 ERA, 1184.7 IP, 1159 Hits, 107 HR, 341 BB, 869 K--////Translated Career Statistics- 3.92 ERA, 9.0 H/9--.8 HR/9--2.2 BB/9--5.7 K/9--////Career K/BB of 2.55/1--////2004 represented a career-worst for Morris in ERA (4.72), HR allowed (35), translated ERA (5.24), translated HR/9 (1.4), and, excluding 2000 (only 54.0 IP), a career-worst K/9 (5.0)////Recent EqERA trend is getting worse (02'-3.87, 03'-4.07, 04'-5.24)////Other recent downward trends (last 3 seasons) for Morris include: translated K/9 (02'-6.4, 03'-5.5, 04'-5.0), translated HR/9 (02'-0.7, 03'-1.0, 04'-1.4), total HR allowed (02'-16, 03'-20, 04'-35), and untranslated ERA (02'-3.42, 03'-3.76, 04'-4.72)////Has spent entire seven-year career in St. Louis (moderate pitcher's park)////

8. Kris Benson (30): Signed with NY Mets (3 years, $22.5 million)2004 Statistics- 4.31 ERA, 200.1 IP, 202 Hits, 15 HR, 61 BB, 134 K, 22.4 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 4.46 ERA, 8.9 H/9--.6 HR/9--2.3 BB/9--5.3 K/9--////Career Statistics- 4.28 ERA, 850.0 IP, 871 Hits, 87 HR, 316 BB, 604 K--////Translated Career Statistics- 4.47 ERA, 9.0 H/9--.8 HR/9--2.8 BB/9--5.7 K/9--////Career K/BB of 1.91/1--////2004 represented a career best translated BB/9 (2.3) for Benson////2004 was one of only two seasons in which Benson has amassed 200+ IP (217.7, 1999-Pittsburgh)////Spent last four seasons in New York Mets (severe pitcher's park), and Pittsburgh (neutral park)

9. Chris Carpenter (30): Option picked up by Cardinals 2004 Statistics- 3.46 ERA, 182.0 IP, 169 Hits, 24 HR, 38 BB, 152 K, 41.6 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 3.77 ERA, 8.8 H/9--1.1 HR/9--1.4 BB/9--6.9 K/9--////Career Statistics- 4.59 ERA, 1052.7 IP, 1153 Hits, 135 HR, 369 BB, 764 K--////Translated Career Statistics- 4.41 ERA, 9.4 H/9--1.0 HR/9--2.6 BB/9--6.3 K/9--////Career K/BB of 2.07/1--////Excluding season's in which Carpenter did not throw 150+ innings, 2004 represented a career-best ERA (3.46), Hits allowed (169), BB (38), translated ERA (3.77), translated BB/9 (1.4), and tied a career-best with 6.9 translated K/9--////Like Hernandez, since Carpenter was out of baseball in 2003 (arm injury), there are no trends to indentify////Spent last four seasons in Toronto (moderate hitter's park), and St. Louis (moderate pitcher's park)////

10. Matt Clement (30): Signed with Red Sox, 3 years (25 million) 2004 Statistics- 3.68 ERA, 181.0 IP, 155 Hits, 23 HR, 77 BB, 190 K, 36.9 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- 3.85 ERA, 7.4 H/9—1.1 HR/9—3.7 BB/9—7.7 K/9--////Career Statistics- 4.34 ERA, 1156.3 IP, 1057 Hits, 118 HR, 544 BB, 1028 K--////Translated Career Statistics- 4.63 ERA, 8.0 H/9--.9 HR/9—4.0 BB/9—6.6 K/9--////Career K/BB of 1.82/1--////Excluding his rookie season of 1998 (only 13.7 IP), 2004 represented a career-best total in Hits Allowed (155), and BB (77) for Clement////2004 also represented a career-worst for Clement in HR allowed (23),and translated HR/9 (1.1)//// Spent last four seasons in Chicago Cubs (slight pitcher's park), and Florida (severe pitcher’s park)////

Next up, #11-20 free-agent RHSP.

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

Free-Agent Right Fielders

2004-11-25T01:13:00.000-05:00

Welcome back.

Now we take a look at the 2004 free-agent right fielders, which is a great list of players.

The one thing you will notice while looking through the scouting reports, is that an above-average amount of the players on the list have been injured recently, or have been "injury cases" for much of their careers.

Those injuries were factored in my ranking of whom I believe is the best available.

Each player's rank is next to thier name.

1. J.D. Drew (29): Signed with Dodgers, 5 years ($55 million) 2004 Statistics: .287/.391/.513, 31 HR, 116/118 K/BB, 12/3 SB/CS, 78.7 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics: .306/.436/.574, .335 EqA////Career batting line of .287/.391/.513--////Translated career batting line of .287/.388/.514, .304 EqA////Very good career K/BB of1.36/1--////Due to many injuries throughout his seven-year career, 2004 was Drew's first season with 500+ AB's////Excluding Drew's rookie year in 1998, where he had only 36 AB, 2004 represented a career high for him in HR, OBP, Translated OBP, and EqA////Recent EqA trend going up (02'-.277, 03'-.300, 04'-.335)////Decent base-stealer, his career SB/CS is 71/22 (76.3 %)////Spent last four seasons in St. Louis (moderate pitcher's park), and Atlanta (slight pitcher's park)////

2. Magglio Ordonez (31): Signed with Tigers, 5 years/$75 million 2004 Statistics (202 AB)- .292/.351/.485, 9 HR, 22/16 K/BB, 11.8 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics: .292/.354/.490, .282 EqA////Career batting line of .307/.364/.525--////Translated career batting line of .307/.365/.537, .299 EqA////Excellent career K/BB of 1.29/1--////2003 Statistics (Last full season): .317/.380/.546, 29 HR, 73/57 K/BB, 63.2 VORP////Translated 2003 Statistics: .317/.385/.558, .309 EqA////Knee Injury in July ended Ordonez's 2004 season early////Has spent his entire eight-year career in Chicago White Sox (slight hitter's park)////

3. Ben Grieve (29): Signed minor league contract with Pirates 2004 Statistics (250 AB): .260/.361/.424, 8 HR, 70/39 K/BB, 12.5 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics: .260/.357/.417, .272 EqA////Career batting line of .269/.367/.443--////Translated career batting line of .272/.372/.457, .287 EqA////Good career K/BB of1.68/1--////2002 Statistics (Last season with 450+ AB): .251/.353/.432, 19 HR, 121/69 K/BB, 19.5 VORP////Translated 2002 Statistics: .256/.363/.447, .281 EqA////Injuries limited Grieve to 250 AB's last year////Spent last 4 season in Milwaukee (neutral park), Chicago Cub's (slight pitcher's park), and Tampa Bay (neutral park)////

4. Richard Hidalgo (29): Signed with Texas, 1 year ($5 million) 2004 Statistics: .239/.301/.444, 25 HR, 129/44 K/BB, 10.0 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics: .240/.302/.444, .252 EqA////Career batting line of .273/.350/.497--////Translated career batting line of .269/.345/.489, .280 EqA////Career K/BB of2.00/1--////Seemed to regain his power after midseason trade to New York Mets, 21 HR in NY as opposed to 4 in HOU, .463 SLG in NY, vs. a .412 SLG in HOU////Spent last four seasons in NY Mets (severe pitcher's park), and Houston (severe hitter's park)////

5. Jermaine Dye (31): Signed with White Sox, 2 years ($10.5 million) 2004 Statistics: .265/.329/.464, 23 HR, 128/49 K/BB, 23.3 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics: .267/.336/.476, .275 EqA////Career batting line of .272/.334/.463--////Translated career batting line of .269/.335/.466, .272 EqA////Career K/BB of2.23/1--////Career has been limited to to many, many injuries////In all seasons of Dye's career when he had 450+ AB's, he has hit no less than 23 HR////Has spent last four seasons in KC (severe hitter's park at the time), and Oakland (neutral park)////

6. Todd Hollandsworth (32): Signed with Cubs, 1 yr/$900,000 2004 Statistics (148 AB): .318/.392/.547, 8 HR, 26/17 K/BB, 16.8 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics: .315/.387/.538, .307 EqA////Career batting line of .279/.336/.447--////Translated career batting line of .276/.332/.448, .266 EqA////Bad career K/BB of2.55/1--//// An injury to Hollandsworth shin limited his AB's last year (148)////Only once in Hollandsworth's 12-year career has he exceeded 300 AB's in one season (1996-Los Angeles)--a career backup////Each of the last three seasons, Hollandsworth's SLG % (02'-.417, 03'-.421, 04'-.547), and translated AVG (02'-.250, 03'-.258, 04'-.305), have gone up////Has spent last four seasons in Colorado (severe hitter's park), Texas (severe hitter's park), Chicago Cubs (slight pitcher's park), and Florida (severe pitcher's park)////

7. Juan Gonzalez (35): Signed minor league contract with Indians 2004 Statistics (127 AB): .276/.326/.441, 5 HR, 19/9 K/BB, 4.4 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics: .273/.328/.438, .260 EqA////Career batting line of .295/.343/.561--////Translated career batting line of .299/.349/.584, .302 EqA////Bad career K/BB of2.79/1--////2003 Statistics (Last season with 300+ AB): .294/.329/.572, 24 HR, 73/14 K/BB, 24.3 VORP////Translated 2003 Statistics: .285/.322/.570, .289 EqA////Due to injuries, Gonzalez has not had a season with 350+ AB since 2001 (Cleveland)////Spent last four seasons in KC (severe pitcher's park in 2004), Texas (severe hitter's park), and Cleveland (neutral park)////

8. Mark Sweeney (35): Signed with Padres, 1 year ($575,000) 2004 Statistics (177 AB): .266/.377/.508, 9 HR, 51/32 K/BB, 14.8 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics: .243/.363/.462, .284 EqA////Career batting line of .256/.349/.392--////Translated career batting line of .253/.347/.388, .259 EqA////Good career K/BB of 1.60/1--////Has been a backup entire 10-year career, has never had more than 180 AB's in any season////Recent EqA trend going up (02'-.164, 03'-.237, 02'-.284)////2004 represented a career-high for Sweeney in HR (9), Strikeouts (51), BB (32), and doubles (12)////Spent last four seasons in Colorado (severe hitter's park), San Diego (severe pitcher's park), and Milwaukee (neutral park)////

9. B.J. Surhoff (40): Signed with Orioles, 1 year ($1.1 million) 2004 Statistics (343 AB): .309/.365/.420, 8 HR, 29/29 K/BB, 16.7 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics: .309/.369/.429, .278 EqA////Career batting line of .283/.334/.416--////Translated career batting line of .292/.346/.443, .271 EqA////Very good career K/BB of 1.28/1--////Excluding injury-shortened season of 2002 (75 AB), Surhoff's AVG (01'-.271, 03'-.295, 04'-.309), OBP (01'-.321, 03'-.353, 04'-.365), and EqA (01'-.254, 03'-.271, 04'-.278) have all gone up in last three years////Primarily used as a backup since 2001////Spent last 4 seasons in Baltimore (severe pitcher's park, until 2004 when it bacame a severe hitter's park), and Atlanta (slight pitcher's park)////

10. Gabe Kapler (29): Signed in Japan, 2004 Statistics (280 AB): .272/.311/.390, 6 HR, 49/15 K/BB, 1.2 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics: .268/.310/.391, .243 EqA////Career batting line of .272/.332/.424--////Translated career batting line of .265/.328/.421, .261 EqA////Career K/BB of 1.93/1--////Has been a backup since 2002 (no season with 300+ AB's)////Spent last four seasons in Boston (slight hitter's park), Colorado (severe hitter's park), and Texas (severe hitter's park)////

11. Danny Bautista (33): Signed with Devil Rays, 1 yr/$1.9 million 2004 Statistics: .286/.332/.401, 11 HR, 66/35 K/BB, 14.4 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics: .275/.321/.385, .247 EqA////Career batting line of .272/.315/.409--////Translated career batting line of .265/.305/.403, .245 EqA////Bad career K/BB of2.74/1--////2004 represented a career high in HR (11) for Bautista////Spent last four seasons in Arizona (severe hitter's park)////In each of the last three seasons, Bautista's translated OBP had dropped (02'-.360, 03'-.325, 04'-.321)////

12. Brian Jordan (38): Signed with Braves, 1 yr/$600,000 2004 Statistics (212 AB): .222/.275/.363, 5 HR, 35/16 K/BB, (-7.0) VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics: .208/.269/.356, .218 EqA////Career batting line of .284/.336/.462--////Translated career batting line of .283/.335/.470, .273 EqA////Not a very good career K/BB of2.33/1--////2002 Statistics (Last season with 450+ AB): .285/.338/.469, 18 HR, 86/34 K/BB, 27.0 VORP////Translated 2002 Statistics: .297/.348/.499, .283 EqA////Injuries in both 2003 and 2004 have limited Jordan to under 250 AB's each season////Spent last four seasons in Texas (severe hitter's park), Los Angeles (severe pitcher's park), and Atlanta (slight pitcher' park)////

13. Darren Bragg (35): 2004 Statistics (101 AB): .188/.261/.356, 4 HR, 31/10 K/BB, (-2.5) VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics: .186/.262/.361, .219 EqA////Career batting line of .255/.340/.381--////Translated career batting line of .251/.338/.384, .256 EqA////Career K/BB of1.87/1--////Has not had a season with 275+ AB's, since 1998 (Boston)////Bragg's AVG (02'-.269, 03'-.241, 04'-.188), translated OBP (02'-.350, 03'-.303, 04'-.262), and translated AVG (02'-.275, 03'-.242, 04'-.186) have all dropped in each of the last three seasons////Has spent last four seasons in five different cities: New York Yankees (slight pitcher's park), New York Mets (severe pitcher's park), Atlanta (slight pitcher's park), Cincinatti (moderate hitter's park), and San Diego (severe pitcher's park)////

14. Orlando Palmeiro (36): Signed with Astros, 1 year ($800,000) 2004 Statistics (133 AB): .241/.344/.346, 3 HR, 19/18 K/BB, 1.9 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics: .233/.334/.341, .244 EqA////Career batting line of .277/.356/.348--////Translated career batting line of .279/.360/.355, .256 EqA////Unbelievable career K/BB of .798/1--////2003 Statistics (Last season with 300+ AB): .271/.330/.347, 3 HR, 31/32 K/BB, 00.0 VORP////Translated 2003 Statistics: .278/.346/.353, .249 EqA////Has never had a season of 318+ AB's in his entire 10-year career--a career backup////In each of the last three seasons, Palmeiro's AVG (02'-.300, 03'-.274, 04'-.241), SLG(02'-.354, 03'-.347, 04'-.346), and EqA(02'-.271, 03'-.249, 04'-.244) have dropped////Spent last four seasons in Anaheim (slight pitcher's park), St. Louis (moderate pitcher's park), and Houston (severe hitter's park)////

Next up, free-agent right-handed starting pitchers (RHSP).

Since there are so many free-agent RHSP, the scouting reports will be done in groups of ten (1-10, 11-20 etc...) according to my ranking of whom I believe is the best available.

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concersn, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

The Needs of the Many....Part II

2004-11-22T21:17:00.000-05:00

Continuing in my coverage of the swamp that is the game of musical chairs being played out this off-season amongst the 201 remaining free agents, today we’ll look at ten second tier free agents and my best educated guess about their final destinations. We’ll begin with a man who prior to last season’s injury would surely have been considered an elite free agent.

RF – Magglio Ordonez (Mets)

Ordonez will surely have a number of possible suitors…teams ranging from his hometown White Sox to the generally active Mariners to the Arizona Diamondbacks. In the end however, it’s going to come down to the Dodgers, the Mets, and the Astros in the opinion of this observer. Being that this is another Scott Boras special…I gotta go with the team most likely to have a lot of resources to commit. That’s New York.

SP – Carl Pavano (Yankees)

A young and previously unspectacular starter with the Marlins, Pavano had an apparent career year in 2004. In reality, his defense-independent pitching statistics didn’t change. He never has been, and never will be an elite starting pitcher. The only problem with that assessment is that it isn’t shared by baseball’s GMs. They’re convinced they’re getting a solid #2 starter and at least a dozen teams have already had conversations with his agent Adam Shapiro. With a likely bidding frenzy for his services, all of the rumors about Pavano ending up in small ports like Baltimore, Seattle, and St. Louis...not bloody likely. No, I suspect that when Steinbrenner falls short for Pedro, he’s coming after Pavano.

3B – Troy Glaus (Mariners)

If it weren’t for four injuries in three seasons…some minor, and some major…last year’s devastating shoulder problems that limited him to 57 games, Glaus would have been one of the top 2 or 3 free agents available in 2004. And he’d have probably been re-signed by the Angels. Instead they decided to get younger and go with prospect Dallas McPherson. Glaus is homeless, and not in high demand. The same five teams bidding for Adrian Beltre will be bidding for Glaus as a consolation prize. This time I believe the Mariners will be his final resting place. With the Dodgers the only other team on the west coast already satisfied with Beltre…and Glaus wanting to stay west of the Rockies…the Mariners have the upper hand and the money to get it done.

SS – Orlando Cabrera (Red Sox)

This could be quite the dogfight. The Cards, having probably lost out on Renteria, are going to come out looking for a shortstop…and most of the lesser ones will have already signed deals like those of Omar Vizquel and Christian Guzman. However, the Red Sox will be working hard to keep their ball club together, and Cabrera is an important part of that effort. In the end…Cabrera stays put.

RP - Armando Benitez (Cubs)

Go through the various teams in baseball one by one, like I did. Count off the number of them that are looking for a closer, AND have enough money lying around to sign the elite closer on the market. There’s only two that fit that bill…San Francisco and Chicago. I think the Cubbies will be the lucky winners of the effective but streaky Benitez; and his tendency to choke in big games…that just fits very well in a city that loves to choke when the pressure is on.

RF – JD Drew (Braves)

Drew’s agent may be Boras, but I get the distinct impression that he is committed to staying in Atlanta, and that even if he weren’t, his reputation for injuries, more injuries, and his salary demands…would hold down his options for right field assignments. The Braves also seem committed to resigning their right fielder, so I think it gets done…and it doesn’t take too long to get it done.

SP – Odalis Perez (Cardinals)

It is becoming abundantly clear that the Cards are unhappy with Matt Morris anchoring their pitching staff. Since Morris is likely to find a home elsewhere, they’ll need a solid #2 starter to eat innings and garner some wins. I believe Perez will come at a low enough price to make him the best fit in St. Louis. They will have some competition for his services; just about every major league team could use a starting pitcher and will set some money aside to sign one. For now though, this is where I think he’ll wind up.

C – Jason Varitek (Red Sox)

Continuing in their efforts to hold their nucleus together from the first successful group since 1918, the Red Sox will throw way more money at Varitek than he deserves. He has a well deserved reputation as a good game-caller, and team leader, but it’s hard to make a case for him being worth $11 million a year, which is what he’s currently asking for-and will probably get from the Sox. His high asking price almost guarantees that Boston is his home for another 3-5 years.

SP – Brad Radke (Mariners)

Radke continues to fly under the radar as teams focus on flashier commodities like Pavano and Clement. He will certainly have some bidders, and it’s doubtful he will make less money than he did in 2004 ($9 Million) after his great 2004 season. The "king" of control, and master of the K/BB ratio, will find a home at Safeco Field where his tendency to give up the long ball will be partially neutralized. He’s still got at least 5 more good years with his assortment of junk, making him the ideal successor to Jamie Moyer.

SP - Derek Lowe (Red Sox)

I know it’s not terribly original to predict that a Red Sox player will stay in Boston…but I firmly believe that Boston will hang onto what it has until better options present themselves, and right now, there aren’t better options that the Sox can afford than Derek Lowe. After his flashy performance in the post-season, Lowe will likely have potential buyers totally forgetting his two straight seasons of inconsistentcy, and overall below-average pitching; much like the White Sox forgot about Freddy Garcia’s control problems when they traded their entire farm system to the Mariners for him in July. The Sox will overpay to keep him and hope he can settle down and fulfill his promise for the first time since 2002.

Matthew Souders

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, suggestions specific to this article, please do not hesitate to email Matthew Souders at m_souders@yahoo.com.

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, suggestions, please do not hesitate to email Frank Bundy III at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

Angels-Expos (Nationals, Grays, or Senators) Trade

2004-11-22T00:36:00.000-05:00

On November 17, 2004 the Anaheim Angels completed a trade with the new franchise in Washington D.C. (formerly the Montreal Expos). In the trade, the Angels gave Washington it's beleaguered right fielder Jose Guillen (28), in exchange for minor- leaguer Macier Izturis (24)--brother of Los Angeles Dodger Shortstop, Cesar--, and OF Juan Rivera (25).

Before delving into the obvious questions, such as "Which team does this trade benefit more?" and "Why was this trade made?" Here is a look at each player's 2004 statistics:

Macier Izturis (AAA- Edmonton Trappers)- .338/.428/.423, .238 MjEqA, 57/30 K/BB, 3 HR, 19 2B, 2 3B, 14/12 SB/CS

Macier Izturis (MLB-Montreal Expos)- 32 Games, 107 AB's, .206/.286/.318, 20/10 K/BB, 1 HR, 5 2B, 2 3B, 4/0 SB/CS
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Juan Rivera (MLB-Montreal Expos)- 134 Games, 391 AB, .307/.364/.465, 12 HR, 45/34 K/BB, 6/2 SB/CS

Translated batting line- .301/.357/.454-.279 EqA
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Jose Guillen (MLB- Anaheim Angels)- 148 Games, 565 AB, .294/.352/.497, 27 HR, 92/37 K/BB, 5/4 SB/CS

Translated batting line- .303/.361/.521-.293 EqA
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As one can clearly see, Izturis is a great prospect. A .238 Major League Equivlant EqA, at age 24 is excellent.

It is also clear that Rivera is coming off of a great season in Montreal, as is Guillen in Anaheim.

Now, to begin answering the question of "Which team benefitted the most from this trade?" the first point that must be clarified is that Guillen is the best player involved in this deal.

Since Guillen is the best player in the deal, and Washington is the team that ended up with him, does that mean Washington got the best of this deal? The answer to that question is "No."

Rivera is a young player that has responded to an increase in AB's every year, by increasing many of his offensive statistics, while showing no decline in any category. Starting in 2002, and going through 2004, Rivera has raised his HR total (1-7-12) each and every year, as well as his 2B totals (5-14-24), AVG (.265-.266-.307), and EqA (.244-.268-.279).

While Rivera is a young player clearly on the rise, so is Izturis. Just look at his numbers last year in the AAA league. While it is true, he did not do well in his 107 AB in the major leagues last year, that is completely to be expected of by a rookie, and should not be held against him. It is more important to look at what Izturis accomplished throughout his many more AB in the minors leagues, and to see that his MjEqA of .238, which as stated earlier, is good for any 24 year old not named Albert Pujols.

So while it is true that Washington did not benefit the most from this trade, they also did not lose out on this trade either. With Guillen being only 28 (29 next baseball season), and factoring in the tremendous numbers that he put up last year, Washington is receiving a great player.

So as much as I hate to do this, I'd have to say that there are two answers to this question:

1. For the next 2-4 years this trade benefits the new Washington franchise, because Guillen has already proven that he is a great offensive player. Also, with Guillen being only 28, he should have some very good years still ahead.

2. For the next 5-8 years, this trade benefits the Angels. By securing Rivera and Izturis, they've assured themselves that they will have solid, if not very good players, in both the OF and SS positions, for years down the road.

To sum this trade up, the Angels traded for the future, while the Expos traded to win now.

Now the question, "Why was this trade made?"

This question has an easy answer.

Since Washington is a "new" franchise, they believe it is important to show it's new fan-base that they are serious about winning, and winning now. By completing this trade, and receiving established-star Guillen, Washington has proven that it wants to win now.

By giving up two players under the age of 27, on the rise, they have shown winning now is the priority, not the future.

And for Anaheim, this trade was made for the future; and to rid of it's egotistical, temper-tantrum-throwing, right fielder.

Both teams got what they wanted out of this trade.

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

Serious Baseball American League "Great Gloves"

2004-11-20T21:12:00.000-05:00

After looking at the 2004 recipients of the American League Gold Glove awards, and disagreeing with many of them, I decided to award "Great Gloves."

"Great Gloves" are essentially the same as the Gold Gloves, except that the winners are picked by me. Winners were chosen based on their fielding statistics.

I will list the AL Gold Glove winner, and his fielding statistics, directly above the Serious Baseball "Great Glove" winner and his statistics, by position, so you can compare the two recipients.

In some cases, the AL Gold Glove winner will be the same as the SB (Serious Baseball) "Great Glove" winner.

Here are the winners:
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Statistic Glossary:

Fielding Percentage: Total number of errors, divided by Total Chances (TC)

TC: Total Chances

E: Errors

SB: Stolen Bases against Catchers

CS: Runners caught stealing against catchers

TC/E: How many chances, on average, went by before that player made an error (formula is same as title-TC/E).......Very useful in prorating a players error total when comparing players with closes TC totals. Will be written as, ie:1/264, which would mean that player made one error every 264 chances.
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Catcher:
AL Gold Glove Winnner: Ivan Rodriguez (DET)- .987 Fldg %, 833 TC, 11 E, 40 SB, 19 CS, 3 PB

SB "Great Glove" Winner: Ivan Rodriguez (DET)- SAME AS ABOVE

First Base:
AL Gold Glove Winner: Darin Erstad (ANA)- .996 Fldg %, 1056 TC, 4 E, 1/264 TC/E

SB "Great Glove" Winner: John Olerud (SEA/NYY)- .998 Fldg %, 994 TC, 2 E, 1/497 TC/E

Second Base:
AL Gold Glove Winner: Bret Boone (SEA)- .978 Fldg %, 644 TC, 14 E, 1/46 TC/E

SB "Great Glove" Winner: Brian Roberts (BAL)- .988 Fldg %, 669 TC, 8 E, 1/83.62 TC/E

Third Base:
AL Gold Glove Winner: Eric Chavez (OAK)- .968 Fldg %, 402 TC, 13 E, 1/30.92 TC/E

SB "Great Glove" Winner: Eric Hinske (TOR)- .978 Fldg %, 357 TC, 8 E, 1/44.62 TC/E

Shortstop
AL Gold Glove Winner: Derek Jeter (NYY)- .981 Fldg %, 678 TC, 13 E, 1/52.15 TC/E

SB "Great Glove" Winner: Cristian Guzman (MIN)- .983 Fldg %, 683 TC, 12 E, 1/56.91 TC/E

Outfield
AL Gold Glove Winner: Ichiro Suzuki (SEA)- .992 Fldg %, 387 TC, 3 E, 1/129 TC/E
AL Gold Glove Winner: Torii Hunter(MIN)- .988 Fldg %, 320 TC, 4 E, 1/80 TC/E
AL Gold Glove Winner: Vernon Wells (TOR)- .997 Fldg %, 333 TC, 1 E, 1/333 TC/E

SB "Great Glove" Winner: Carl Crawford (TB)- .994 Fldg %, 357 TC, 2 E, 1/178.5 TC/E
SB "Great Glove" Winner: Carlos Lee(CHA)- 1.000 Fldg %, 293 TC, 0 E, 0/293 TC/E
SB "Great Glove" Winner: Vernon Wells (TOR)- SAME AS ABOVE

Pitcher
AL Gold Glove Winner: Kenny Rogers (TEX)- .985 Fldg %, 65 TC, 1 E, 1/65 TC/E

SB "Great Glove" Winner: Kenny Rogers (TEX)- SAME AS ABOVE

Congratulations to all of the winners.

Even though there is a great chance the winners will never know that they have won a Serious Baseball "Great Glove" award, it is an honor to give them this award.

I believe the Serious Baseball "Great Glove" award winners are the players who should have won the AL Gold Glove awards; and I believe the listed statistics prove that point.

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

Free-Agent Center Fielders

2004-11-20T20:08:00.000-05:00

Now we look at the 2004 free-agent Center Fielders.

There isn't alot of them, but there are some good ones. Obviously, Carlos Beltran is the best available.

You may be surprised to see Marquis Grissom, and Steve Finley not on the top half of the list. The reason they are ranked so low is simply because they are 38 and 40 years of age respectively. I just couldn't rank them ahead of Ricky Ledee and Doug Glanville (31 and 34 years of age).

Glanville over Grissom is a coin-flip, and can be interchanged anyway you would like, but I had to go with the age factor on that one.

Again, as always, each free-agent is ranked as to whom I believe is the best available.

1. Carlos Beltran(28): Signed with Mets, 7 yrs/$119 million 2004 Statistics- .267/.367/.548, 38 HR, 101/92 K/BB, 42/3 SB/CS, 68.5 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .259/.360/.536, .305 EqA////Career batting line of .284/.353/.490--////Translated career batting line of .273/.348/.481, .287 EqA////Good career K/BB of 1.73/1--////Career SB/CS of 192/23 (89.3%)////2004 represented a career high in HR (38), SB (42), and BB (92) for Beltran////Spent last 4 seasons in Kansas City (severe pitcher's park until 2004 when it became a severe hitter's park), and Houston (moderate hitter's park)////

2. Jeromy Burnitz (36): Signed by Cubs, 1 year/$5 million 2004 Statistics-.283/.356/.559, 37 HR, 124/58 K/BB, 43.5 VORP ////Translated 2004 Statistics- .263/.338/.523, .282 EqA////Career batting line of .254/.351/.491--////Translated career batting line of .252/.347/.490, .280 EqA////Good career K/BB of 1.81/1--////2004 represented a career-high in HR for Burnitz (37)////In Burnitz's last 3 seasons his AVG (02'-.215, 03'-.239 ,04'-.283), SLG (02'-.365,03'-.487 ,04'-.559), HR totals (02'-19, 03'-31 ,04'-37), and 2B totals (02'-15, 03'-22 ,04'-30) have all steadily gone up////Spent last 4 seasons in Milwaukee (neutral park), New York Mets (severe pitcher's park), Los Angeles (severe pitcher's park), and Colorado (severe hitter's park)

3. Ricky Ledee (31): Signed with Dodgers, 2 years ($2.5 million) 2004 Statistics- .233/.337/.403, 7 HR, 47/27 K/BB, 6.7 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .229/.333/.400, .246 EqA////Career batting line of .242/.328/.413--////Translated career batting line of .243/.329/.419, .259 EqA////Good career K/BB of 1.94/1--////A career backup, hasn't had more than 255 AB's during any season in his career////Translated OBP has gone down in each of last 3 seasons (02'-.348, 03'-.343 ,04'-.333)////Spent last four seasons in Texas (severe hitter's park), Philadelphia (moderate pitcher's park), and San Francisco (severe pitcher's park)////

4. Steve Finley (40): Signed with Anaheim, 2 years ($14 million) 2004 Statistics- .271/.333/.490, 36 HR, 82/61 K/BB, 9/7 SB/CS, 35.8 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .266/.326/.483, .271 EqA////Career batting line of .276/.337/.450--////Translated career batting line of .280/.342/.467, .275 EqA////Very good career K/BB of 1.53/1--////Not a good career SB/CS of 305/114 (72.8%) ////In each of last three seasons, Finley's OBP has declined (02'-.370, 03'-.363 ,04'-.333)////Spent last 4 seasons in Arizona (severe hitter's park), and Los Angeles (severe pitcher's park)////

5. Doug Glanville (34): Signed minor league contract with Yankees 2004 Statistics (162 AB)- .210/.244/.265, 2 HR, 21/8 K/BB, 8/0 SB/CS, (-8.2) VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .204/.238/.255, .191 EqA////Career batting line of .277/.315/.380--////Translated career batting line of .274/.309/.375, .245 EqA////Last healthy season was 2002, statistics that year: .249/.292/.344, 6 HR, 57/25 K/BB, 19/2 SB/CS, 4.8 VORP////Translated 2002 Statistics- .259/.300/.357/, .240 EqA////Career K/BB of 2.41/1--////Last seaons with 400+ AB's was 2002 (Philadelphia)////OBP has declined in the last 3 years (02'-.292, 03'-.286, 04'-.244)////Although not the stolen base threat he once was earlier in his career, he still maintains an very good career SB/CS of 168/36 (82.3%)////Spent last 4 seasons in Philadelphia (moderate pitcher's park), Chicago Cubs (slight pitcher's park), and Texas (severe hitter's park)////

6. Marquis Grissom (38): Option picked up by Giants 2004 Statistics- .279/.323/.450, 22 HR, 83/37 K/BB, 3/1 SB/CS, 25.3 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .276/.319/.443, .260 EqA////Career batting line of .273/.319/.417--////Translated career batting line of .274/.321/.431, .262 EqA////Career K/BB of 2.24/1--////Career SB/CS of 428/115 (78.8%)////In each of the last 3 seasons, Grissom's SLG % has dropped (02'-.510,03'-.468 ,04'-.450)////Recent EqA trend is going downward (02'-.288,03'-.271 ,04'-.260)///Like Glanville, no longer the SB threat he once was, but still maintains a good SB/CS of 428/115 (78.8 %)/////Spent last four seasons in Los Angeles (severe pitcher's park), and San Francisco (severe pitcher's park)////

7. Tom Goodwin (36): 2004 Statistics (105 AB)- .200/.254/.276, 0 HR, 22/8 K/BB, 5/0 SB/CS, (-4.2) VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .196/.248/.265, .196 EqA////Career batting line of .268/.332/.339--////Translated career batting line of .263/.326/.336, .247 EqA////Good career K/BB of 1.97/1--////Career SB/CS of 369/118 (75.8%)////Hasn't had a season of 400+ AB's since 1999 (Texas)////Last season (2004) was the first since 1994 that Goodwin has stolen less than 16 bases////Recent EqA trend is going downward (02'-.258,03'-.255 ,04'-.196)////Spent last 4 seasons in Chicago Cubs (slight pitcher's park), San Francisco (severe pitcher's park), and Los Angeles (severe pitcher's park)////

Next up, free-agent right fielders.

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

New Writer at Serious Baseball

2004-11-20T19:44:00.000-05:00

Again, for the second time in two days, there is a new writer at Serious Baseball.

His name is Matthew Souders, and if any of you visit the forums at MLB Center.com, you know him as SABR Matt.

Again, I would like to be the first to welcome him to Serious Baseball.

Like Steven Hanson before him, Matt will add a whole new perspective to the site.

Matthew's first article, "The Needs of the Many," is posted below this introduction.

Enjoy the article, I know I did.

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

The Needs of the Many

2004-11-20T19:43:00.000-05:00

Free agency brings with it the hope for every team that their problems and weaknesses from the previous season will be addressed. Hope springs eternal from Seattle to St. Louis, from Boston to LA. As is customary around this time of year, the informed and the casual alike begin speculating on who will sign where. I’ll take a crack at it today as well. Below is a listing of the ten most important free agents on the market and some raw unadulterated speculation about where they might just end up.

CF – Carlos Beltran (Yankees)

Yeah I know…it’s a bit obvious. He’s tops on everyone’s list…but a select few teams can actually afford him. Possible players include the Yankees, whose payroll just isn’t quite high enough for Steinbrenner unless it exceeds the GNP of at least fifty countries, the Phillies, desperately in need of an actual outfielder now that they’ve finally realized Abreu is a pathetic defensive outfielder and Pat Burrell may be the worst defender in the national league, the Astros, who will look rather bad if they can’t hang onto Beltran while they’re losing Jeff Kent as well, and the Angels now that they’ve dealt with Jose Guillen. I hate to do it…but I gotta go with the odds on this one. Yankee Stadium needs a new legend in Center.

3B – Adrian Beltre (Dodgers)

It seems to be a common conceit that the Dodgers will eventually win the bidding war for the services of Adrian Beltre, fresh off his 48 HR, 332 BA campaign in 2004. The one-time 25 year old phenom, and current all star will cost too much for 18 of the 30 teams, and only five stand out as even remote possibilities. The Red Sox have Kevin Youkilis and Billy Mueller, but neither are long-term solutions at third base and they Sox know it. If they can’t lock up Orlando Cabrera or Jason Varitek they may suddenly divert their attention to Beltre and make a deal for the other positions they can’t fill. The Phillies will get one big name. If they fall short on Beltran, third base is a hole for them as well, so Beltre is an option. The Astros are rumored to be frustrated with Morgan Ensberg…possibly enough to move him if they can’t resign Beltran, although I find that hard to believe. The Dodgers have the money, the hometown connection, and a gaping hole at third if they can’t convince Beltre to stay put. And finally, the Mariners, complete with twenty five million dollars to spend on free agents and a hole at third base that has never been filled through the entire history of the franchise. I almost picked the Mariners here…but I believe Seattle will commit its financial resources more evenly and can therefore probably not afford to sign any player who’ll be demanding 15 million a year.

Richie Sexson – 1B (Orioles)

This basically comes down to three questions…who needs a first baseman, who has money, and who is willing to take the risk that Sexson’s injured back won’t flare back up again? The teams that fit this bill: the Mariners, the Orioles, the Angels, and the Braves. Everyone else has a first baseman under contract or can’t afford Sexson. Although Sexson has expressed a desire to play for Seattle and Mariner management favors players with ties to the Pacific Northwest, the Mariners are favoring another first baseman. The nod therefore goes to Baltimore.

SS – Nomar Garciaparra (Angels)

Here’s where there are far more choices for destinations. There are a dozen teams with holes on their middle infield and money to spend to get one. Possibilities range from the Cardinals and Cubs to the Angels and Dodgers and several others. However, the most pressing need lies in Anaheim where the Angels are without Adam Kennedy for at least three months in 2005. It seems likely that David Eckstein will slide over to second base and the Angels will acquire an elite shortstop. Nomar fits the bill.

SP – Matt Clement (Blue Jays)

I expect many of you are surprised by this selection. We’ve heard almost nothing from the press about the likely destination of the only elite power pitcher on the market, but we do know that the Blue Jays have been looking for someone to serve as Halladay’s wingman for two years now. I’m going out on a limb and putting Clement in an unusual locale…call it a gut feeling.

SP – Pedro Martinez (Red Sox)

For all the talk about Pedro and Steinbrenner having contact and Boston looking elsewhere for their starting pitching…now is not the time for Boston to make major changes. Epstein will be working as hard as he can to hold his team together, and I believe that in the end, Pedro will stay put.

1B – Carlos Delgado (Mariners)

While the Mariners aren’t the only team who might have interest in the big bat of the aging Carlos Delgado, they are the only team who’ve been reported to have made Delgado their primary target. His left handed swing will fit in quite nicely at Safeco Field for at least a few more years before he begins his inevitable decline.

2B – Jeff Kent (Padres)

With a new stadium and a bourgeoning population of good young pitching prospects and outfielders, the Padres are looking to unload Ryan Klesko’s contract. If they succeed, which I feel is likely eventually, they’re going to come out in search of a middle infielder, some relievers, and maybe a corner infielder. I believe San Diego will get someone. And Kent prefers national league baseball, so it’s either here or Houston.

SP – Roger Clemens (Astros)

Refusing to let the sun set, Clemens had a banner year and notched a Cy Young award. Now he’s 99% certain he’s going to play for another season, and he feels no compelling reason to move. Houston will lock him up quickly and turn their attention to filling their vacant outfield positions and finding a second baseman to replace Kent.

SS – Edgar Renteria (Cubs)

It looks like a two team battle for Renteria’s services, the Cubs or the Cards. Although St. Louis has the “home field advantage” I fully expect the Cubs will have more resources than St. Louis, and this off-season, more than many others, will be about raising the bar on contracts as agents struggle to generate a market correction to halt the decline in the salaries of top end free agents. Home field will mean nothing in 2005.

Matthew Souders

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, specific to this article, please do not hesitate to email Matthew Souders at m_souders@yahoo.com.

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions about anything concerning the website, please do not hestitate to email Frank Bundy III at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

Edgar Martinez in the Hall of Fame?

2004-11-19T20:54:00.000-05:00

A decent argument could be made about Edgar Martinez, who spent his entire 18-year career playing for the Seattle Mariners, and whether he deserves a spot in the Hall of Fame. You can say that he didn't play enough in the field to be considered, even though he was the best player to play his position.

But too bad his position happened to be designated hitter, huh? My problem with people who say he's not worthy of that spot in the hall, is that they just assume that he couldn't field. To remind those who don't know, he started his career playing third base for the same team he's been with up until now, but his legs weren't strong enough to continue playing field positions. You can consider him a designated hitter all you want, where he played 1,412 games, but he also played 563 at third. Not too bad of a comparison when you look at it, is it? You have to remember, when a manager assigns you to a position for the game, that's where you play. It just so happens that Edgar Martinez was instructed to sit on the bench while his team was on the field; don't hold that against him.

Career Statistics (18 seasons): .312/.418/.515, 309 HR, 1202/1283 (0.937/1) K/BB
Translated Career Statistics (18 seasons): .320/.430/.552, .328 EqA

Baseball Prospectus: Edgar Martinez Stat Profile
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/martied01.shtml

Putting the stats aside for a moment, Martinez wasn't only a great player that meant the world to the Seattle Mariner organization, he was known league-wide as a class act. Martinez did things for the community some players will never get the chance to do, and that's something to acknowledge. On the second-to-last game of last season, Martinez was recognized by the Mariners, by having a street named in his honor, his name added to the Seattle Mariners Hall of Fame, and Bud Selig officially named the designated hitter award in his name.

For me, the bottom line is that Martinez was the best at his position, despite what it happened to be. Given the opportunity, Martinez will be a great candidate for MLB's Hall of Fame.

Thank you for reading.

Steven Hanson

If you have any questions, comments, concerns or suggestions, specific to this article, please do not hesitate to email Steven Hanson at bravest2@yahoo.com

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

New Writer at Serious Baseball

2004-11-19T20:52:00.000-05:00

I would like to be the first to welcome Steven Hanson to Serious Baseball as a new writer to the site.

Steven will write articles on all topics of baseball, just as I have, and will continue to do.

Steven will add a new, interesting perspective to the website.

Steven's first article is posted above this introduction.

Enjoy the article.

If you have any questions for Steve, his email address is bravest2@yahoo.com.

If you have any questions for me, my email address is frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

Frank Bundy III

Free-Agent Left Fielders

2004-11-17T22:17:00.000-05:00

Now we take a look at the 2004 crop of 2004 free-agent left-fielders.

Hopefully, your team doesn't need a left-fielder this year. First of all, there aren't many available, second of all, there is only one everyday starter (Alou) on the list--and he is going to be 38 next year.

The list even includes a player who didn't even play in Major League Baseball in 2004 (Cordova).

There really isn't alot to look at here, but as always, I have these few players ranked according to whom I believe is the best available.

1. Moises Alou (38): Signed with Giants, 2 yrs/$13.25 million 2004 Statistics- .293/.361/.557, 39 HR, 80/68 K/BB, 51.5 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- .287/.358/.548, .299 EqA////Career Batting Line of .300/.367/.520--////Translated Career batting line of .298/.367/.520, .296 EqA////Very good career K/BB of 1.26/1--////Alou's recent EqA trend is going up (02'-.270, 03'-.282, 04'-.299)////Spent last 4 seasons of career in Chicago Cubs (slight pitcher's park), and Houston (moderate hitter's park)////In the last three years, every statistic in Alou's batting line has gone up. Here are his statistics in 2002, 2003, and 2004:

2002: .275/.337/.419, 15 HR, 61/47 K/BB, 18.9 VORP
2003: .280/.357/.462, 22 HR, 67/63 K/BB, 30.5 VORP
2004: .293/.361/.557, 39 HR, 80/68 K/BB, 51.5 VORP

2. Dave Dellucci (31): Signed with Rangers, 2 years ($1.8 million) 2004 Statistics (331 AB)- .242/.342/.441, 17 HR, 88/47 K/BB, 8.6 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- .232/.339/.429, .266 EqA////Career Batting Line of .261/.339/.418--////Translated Career batting line of .254/.333/.411, .259 EqA////Career K/BB of 2.30/1--////Only one season with 350+ AB's in his career (1998 in Arizona)--a career backup////Hit 17 HR in only 331 AB's last year, which represented a career high for Dellucci////Was injured at various points in 2004////Spent last four seaons in Texas (severe hitter's park), New York Yankees (slight pitcher's park), and Arizona (severe hitter's park)////

3. John Mabry (34): Signed with Cardinals, 1 year ($750,000) 2004 Statistics(240 AB)- .296/.363/.504, 13 HR, 63/26 K/BB, 18.1 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- .299/.367/.506, .292 EqA////Career Batting Line of .271/.328/.413--////Translated Career batting line of .271/.328/.418, .257 EqA////Not a very good career K/BB of 2.49/1--////Mabry's 240 AB's in 2004 represented his highest total since 1999 (Seattle)////A backup since 1996 (last season with 400+ AB's--543 AB with StL.)////2004 represented a career high in OBP, and EqA for Mabry////Spent last four seasons in five different cities: Florida (severe pitcher's park), Philadelphia (slight hitter's park), Oakland (neutral park), St. Louis (moderate pitcher's park), and Seattle (severe pitcher's park)////

4. Ray Lankford (38): 2004 Statistics(200 AB)- .259/.349/.425, 6 HR, 55/29 K/BB, 6.2 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- .255/.355/.427, .270 EqA////Career Batting Line of .272/.364/.477--////Translated Career batting line of .274/.368/.494, .290 EqA////Career K/BB of 1.87/1--////Has been a backup since 1999 (his last season with 400+ AB's)////Has not had over 265 AB's since 2000////Lankford's wrist was injured for part of 2004, and that kept him out of many games during the season////Spent last four seasons in San Diego (severe pitcher's park), and St. Louis (moderate pitcher's park)////

5. Quentin McCracken (35): Signed minor league contract with Diamondbacks 2004 Statistics-.273/.328/.381, 2 HR, 27/15 K/BB, 1.3 VORP ////2004 Translated Statistics-.269/.323/.368, .235 EqA ////Career Batting Line of .279/.340/.382--////Translated Career batting line of .267/.330/.369, .248 EqA////Career K/BB of 1.98/1--////Hasn't had 350+ AB's since 1998 (Tampa Bay)////Has, for the most part, been a backup since 1998////McCracken injured his knee in 2004 and did not play the last month of the season////Spent last four seasons in Minnesota (neutral park), Arizona (severe hitter's park), and Seattle (severe pitcher's park)////

6. Marty Cordova (34) --(Only 30 AB in 2003, Out of baseball in 2004)- Signed minor league contract with Devil Rays 2002 Statistics- .253/.325/.434, 18 HR, 111/47 K/BB, 12.2 VORP////2002 Translated Statistics--.265/.340/.455, .267 EqA////Career batting line of .274/.344/.448--////Translated career batting line of .275/.346/.459, .274 EqA////Career batting line of 2.22/1--////Every season in which Cordova has gotten 350+ AB's, he has hit 10 or more HR's////Before undergoing ligament reconstruction ("Tommy John") surgery on his right elbow Cordova spent his last four seasons in Baltimore (severe pitcher's park), Cleveland (neutral park), and Toronto (moderate hitter's park)////

7. Dave Berg (34): Signed minor league contract with Red Sox 2004 Statistics (154 AB)- .253/.278/.338, 3 HR, 27/4 K/BB, (-5.5) VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- .252/.280/.333, .212 EqA////Career Batting Line of .269/.328/.373--////Translated Career batting line of .269/.328/.373, .247 EqA////Career K/BB of 2.32/1--////Has not had a season with 350+ AB's in his entire 7-year career////Recent EqA trend is going down (02'-.249, 03'-.234, 04'-.212)////Spent last four seasons in Toronto (moderate hitter's park), and Florida (severe pitcher's park)////

Not that long of a list, huh?

Next up, free-agent center fielders.

I heard a rumor that there is a pretty good player on the free-agent center fielder list. His name is Belt....something. I'll find out about him.

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

Free-Agent Third Basemen

2004-11-14T02:54:00.000-05:00

Now it's time to look at the 2004 crop of free-agent third basemen. There are not many, but there are some very good ones.

As always, free-agent's are ranked as to whom I believe is the best available.

Player's age for the 2005 season are in parenthesees next to their name.

1. Adrian Beltre (27): Signed with Mariners, 5 years ($64 million) 2004 Statistics- .334/.388/.629, 48 HR, 87/53 K/BB, 90.3 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics-.339/.393/.635, .330 EqA////Career batting line of .274/.332/.463--////Translated Career batting line of .286/.323/.449, .263 EqA////Terrible career K/BB of 3.20/1--////2004 represented career highs for Beltre in AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS, HR, VORP, and EqA////Spent entire 7-year career in Los Angeles (severe pitcher's park)////

2. Troy Glaus(28): Injured for much of 2003 and 2004, last full season was 2002; Signed with Diamondbacks, 4 years ($45 million) 2002 Statistics- .250/.352/.453, 30 HR, 144/88 K/BB, 42.2 VORP////2002 Translated Statistics-.256/.365/.474, .287 EqA////Injury-ridden 2004 statistics (207 AB)- .251/.355/.575, 18 HR, 52/31 K/BB, 21.1 VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics (207 AB)- .258/.367/.598, .307 EqA//// Career batting line of .253/.357/.497--////Translated Career batting line of .254/.362/.511, .292 EqA////Very good career K/BB of 1.67/1--////Besides an AVG of .284 in 2000, Glaus's AVG in 2004 (.251) represented his career-high////In three of the four seasons in which Glaus has had more than 500 AB's (1999, 2000,'01, and 02'), he stole more than 10 bases (14 in 2000, and 10 in 01' and 02')////Spent entire 7-year career in Anaheim (slight pitcher's park)////

3. Corey Koskie (32): Signed with Bluejays, 3 years ($17 million) 2004 Statistics- .251/.342/.495, 25 HR, 49/12 K/BB, 25.7 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics-.251/.348/.506, .286 EqA////Career batting line of .280/.373/.463--////Translated Career batting line of .279/.377/.469, .289 EqA////Good career K/BB of 1.68/1--////Injured for part of 2004////In every season in which Koskie has accumulated 300+ AB's (99'-04'), his EqA has always been above .285////Recent trend in SLG% is going upward (02'-.447, 03'-.452, 04'-.495 )////Has only one season with 550+ AB's (2001), and in that season Koskie stole 27 bases and was only caught 6 times (82%)////Has stolen more than 9 bases in every season since 2001////Bad career SB/CS of 66/33 (67%)////Spent entire 7-year career in Minnesota (neutral park)////

4. Tony Batista(31): Signed in Japan, 2 years/$15 million 2004 Statistics- .241/.272/.455, 32 HR, 78/26 K/BB, (0.0) VORP////2004 Translated Statistics-.235/.269/.448, .243 EqA////Career batting line of .251/.298/.458--////Translated Career batting line of .251/.299/.465, .258 EqA////Bad career K/BB of 2.88/1--////As one can see by Batista's career numbers, he is terrible at getting on base (OBP), but very good at hitting for extra bases(SLG)////Stole 14 bases last year, which doubled his previous career high (7 in 1996), but was caught 6 times (20%)////Bad career SB/CS of 47/25 (65%)////Spent last four seasons of his career in Montreal (severe hitter's park), Baltimore (severe pitcher's park), and Toronto (moderate hitter's park)////

5. Joe Randa (35): Signed with Reds, 1 year ($2.15 million) 2004 Statistics- .287/.343/.408, 8 HR, 77/40 K/BB, 13.1 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics-.282/.346/.408, .263 EqA////Career batting line of .286/.341/.424--////Translated Career batting line of .279/.338/.420, .263 EqA////Good career K/BB of 1.71/1--////Homerun total in 2004 was half of total in 2003 (16)////Spent last six seasons of 10-year career in Kansas City (a severe hitter's park, until 2004 when fences were moved in and out, and it became a severe pitcher's park)////

6. Vinny Castilla (37): Signed with Washington (2 years-$6.2 million) 2004 Statistics- .271/.332/.535, 35 HR, 113/51 K/BB, 35.4 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics-.251/.315/.496, .271 EqA////Career batting line of .280/.324/.489--////Translated Career batting line of .257/.303/.455, .255 EqA////Not a very good career K/BB of 2.53/1--////Recent EqA trend going upward (02'-.220, 03'-.263, 04'-.271)////2004 represented a career high in K's for Castilla////The 2004 BB total for Castilla was only 2 BB's away from tying his career high in that category (53 in 99')////The 35 HR's Castilla hit in 2004 were the most he hit in his career since 1998 (46, also in Colorado)////Spent last four seasons of his career in four differents cities: Colorado (severe hitter's park), Atlanta (slight pitcher's park), Tampa Bay (neutral park), and Houston (moderate hitter's park)////Castilla's numbers outside of Coor's Field in Colorado = .250/.287/.404,--Castilla's numbers inside Coor's Field in Colorado = .295/.341/.529--////

7. Herbert Perry (35): 2002 was last season with 135+ AB, 2002 Statistics- .276/.333/.480, 22 HR, 66/34 K/BB, 26.9 VORP////2002 Translated Statistics-.271/.333/.487, .274 EqA////2004 Statistics (134 AB)- .224/.307/.366, 5 HR, 19/4 K/BB, (-1.2) VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .211/.302/.359, .234 EqA////Career batting line of .272/.335/.436--////Translated Career batting line of .269/.334/.440, .265 EqA////Bad career K/BB of 2.27/1--////Has had only 158 total AB's in the last two seasons////Beside 450 AB's in 2002, never has had more than 400 AB's during any season in career////Spent last four seasons in Texas (severe hitter's park), and Chicago Whitesox (slight hitter's park)////

8. Shane Halter (35): Only 46 games in 2004, Signed minor league contract with Devil Rays 2003 Statistics- .217/.269/.342, 12 HR, 77/27 K/BB, (-6.4) VORP////2003 Translated Statistics-.219/.278/.348, .219 EqA////Injury-ridden 2004 Statistics (114 AB's)- .202/.248/.351, 4 HR, 30/7 K/BB, (-4.1) VORP////Translated 2004 Statistics- .206/.354/.355, .209 EqA////Career batting line of .246/.303/.385--////Translated Career batting line of .250/.311/.396, .245 EqA////Bad career K/BB of 2.84/1--////Recent EqA trend going down (02'-.252, 03'-.219, 04'-.209)////Spent last four seaons in Anaheim (slight pitcher's park), and Detroit (moderate pitcher's park)////

Notice that in this group, the two best-ranked free agents (Adrian Beltre, and Troy Glaus) are under 30 years of age--that does not happen very often.

Look for teams this winter to be bidding high on these two players, (especially Beltre, since he has no significant injury history like that of Troy Glaus).

Next up, free-agent left fielders.

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

Pitcher A vs. Pitcher B

2004-11-11T01:25:00.000-05:00

The two following pitchers have pitched a full season, and these are their final statistics. Which pitcher had the better year?

Pitcher A vs. Pitcher B:

W/L Record
Pitcher A: 18-4 (33 Games Started, 214.3 Innings Pitched)
Pitcher B: 16-14 (35 Games Started, 245.7 Innings Pitched)

ERA
Pitcher A: 2.98
Pitcher B: 2.60

Hits Allowed
Pitcher A: 169 (7.1 H/9)
Pitcher B: 177 (6.5 H/9)

Strikeouts
Pitcher A: 281 (9.2 K/9)
Pitcher B: 290 (10.6 K/9)

Base on Balls Allowed
Pitcher A: 79 (3.3 BB/9)
Pitcher B: 44 (1.6 BB/9)

K/BB
Pitcher A: 281/79 (3.56/9)
Pitcher B: 290/44 (6.59/1)

Homeruns Allowed
Pitcher A: 15 (.6 HR/9)
Pitcher B: 18 (.7 HR/9)

Opponents Batting Average
Pitcher A: .217
Pitcher B: .197

WHIP (Walks + Hits per Inning Pitched)
Pitcher A: 1.16
Pitcher B: 0.90

Unless one believes that W-L record means alot, it is 100%, completely obvious that pitcher B had the better season.

But, that one person(s) that does believe that a pitchers W-L record does mean alot is the committee that decides who wins the Cy Young award.

Since they believe that this statistic--which is a statistic that is not completely under the control of the pitcher himself, and therefore it is NOT fair indicator of a pitchers performance--is more important than the other presented statistics--which the pitcher DOES HAVE COMPLETE CONTROL OF--this committee gave the Cy Young award to Pitcher A, which happens to be the 2004 version of Houston Astros pitcher Roger Clemens.

Pitcher B is the 2004 version of Arizona Diamondback pitcher Randy Johnson, who clearly deserved the award, but was snubbed because his team could not score enough runs to prevent him from losing so many games. It is kind of surprising that he managed to win 16 games, on such a horrible team--Arizona's record in 2004 was 51-111.

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, concerns, comments, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

Free-Agent Shortstops

2004-11-09T23:32:00.000-05:00

Now for the 2004 free-agent crop of Shortstops.

I believe this is a very good crop. It includes one of the best shortstops in recent memory in Garciaparra, as well as a 40 year old whose career is on the upswing (according to EqA)--Barry Larkin.

As always, players are ranked by whom I believe is the best available.

Players age for 2005 season in parthesees.

1. Nomar Garciaparra (31): Signed with Cubs, 1 year ($8 million) 2004 Statistics- .301/.365/.477, 9 HR, 30/24 K/BB, 29.7 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .305/.361/.479, .287 EqA////Career batting line of .322/.370/.549--////Translated Career batting line of .322/.374/.563, .308 EqA////Great career K/BB of 1.42/1--////In his last full healthy season(2003), Garciaparra stole 19 bases, and was caught 5 times////Spent entire career in Boston (Slight hitter's park), before midseason trade last season sent him to the Cub's Wrigley Field (slight pitcher's park)////

2. Edgar Renteria (29): Signed with Red Sox, 4 years ($40 million) 2004 Statistics- .287/.327/.401, 10 HR, 78/39 K/BB, 26.5 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .291/.335/.409, .255 EqA////Career batting line of .289/.346/.400--////Translated career batting line of.292/.348/.403, .265 EqA////Very good career K/BB of 1.55/1--////Last four seasons of career spent in St. Louis (moderate pitcher's park)////Has stolen 17-41 bases every year of his 9 year career////Career SB/CS of 237/89 (72.7%)////2004 was Renteria's worst season according to EqA since 2001 (.245)////

3. Rich Aurilia (33): Signed minor league contract with Reds 2004 Statistics- .246/.314/.353, 6 HR, 71/37 K/BB, 5.8 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .250/.320/.370, .248 EqA////Career batting line of .275/.329/.435--////Translated career batting line of .280/.333/.446, .266 EqA////Career K/BB of 1.94/1--////Spent last 4 seasons in San Francisco (severe pitchers park), San Diego for half of 2004 (severe pitcher's park), and Seattle for half of 2004 (severe pitcher's park)////Aurilia has only put up an EqA higher than .280 once in his career (2001 - .314)////

4. Jose Hernandez (35): Signed with Indians, 1year ($1.8 million) 2004 Statistics- .289/.370/.540, 13 HR, 61/26 K/BB, 24.7 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .292/.372/.550, .305 EqA////Was a backup in Los Angeles in 2004////Career batting line of ..253/.313/.424--////Translated Career batting line of .250/.308/.421, .250 EqA////Horrible career K/BB of 3.61/1--////Spent last four seasons in five different cities: Los Angeles (severe pitcher's park), Pittsburgh (neutral park), Colorado (severe hitter's park), Milwaukee (neutral park), and Chicago Cubs (slight pitcher's park)////2004 was best of Hernandez's career according to EqA, his previous best was .284 in 2002 with Milwaukee////

5. Barry Larkin (41): 2004 Statistics- .289/.352/.419, 8 HR, 39/34 K/BB, 23.1 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .292/.356/.422, .271 EqA////Career batting line of .295/.371/.444--////Translated Career batting line of .295/.373/.462, .289 EqA////Amazing career K/BB of .870/1--////Has spent entire 19 year career in Cincinatti (moderate pitcher's park through 2003, a slight hitter's park last year in new stadium)////Believe it or not, even at his age, Larkin's recent EqA trend is going upward, (02'-.238, 03'-.260, 04'-.271)////Four of last five years, Larkin has had an injury(s) keep him out of at least part of every season (except 2002)////

6. Cristian Guzman (27): Signed with Washington (4 years-$16.8 million) 2004 Statistics- .274/.309/.384, 8 HR, 64/30 K/BB, 14.8 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .273/.312/.386, .245 EqA////Career batting line of .266/.303/.382--////Translated Career batting line of .263/.302/.383, .240 EqA////Very bad career K/BB of 2.96/1--////Has spent entire career in Minnesota (neutral park)////Can steal bases, but has a bad career SB/CS of 102/52 (66.2%)////Guzman's recent EqA trend is going upward (02'-.237, 03'-.242, 04'-.245)////

7. Orlando Cabrera (30): Signed with Angels, 4 years ($32 million) 2004 Statistics- .264/.306/.383, 10 HR, 54/39 K/BB, 13.7 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .257/.299/.378, .247 EqA////Career batting line of .268/.316/.409--////Translated Career batting line of .262/.310/.402, .249 EqA////Very good career K/BB of 1.32/1--////Can steal a base (12 in '04, career high of 25 in '02)////Career SB/CS of 97/30 (76.4%)////Spent last four seasons in Montreal (severe hitter's park), and Boston (slight hitter's park)////

8. Jose Valentin (35): Signed with Dodgers, 1 yr/$3.5 million 2004 Statistics- .216/.287/.473, 30 HR, 139/43 K/BB, 17.0 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .211/.287/.478, .255 EqA////Career batting line of .243/.321/.452--////Translated Career batting line of .240/.320/.456, .265 EqA////Career K/BB of 2.11/1--////As can be seen very clearly in his career numbers, Valentin supplies a lot of power, with very little potential to get on base////Homerun totals have gone up in last three years (02'-25, 03'-28, 04'-30)////Spent last four years in Chicago Whitesox (slight hitter's park)////AVG has gone down in each of last three years (02'-.249, 03'-.237, 04'-.216)////

9. Omar Vizquel (38): Signed with San Francisco (3 years-$12.25 million) 2004 Statistics- .291/.353/.388, 7 HR, 62/57 K/BB, 35.5 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .296/.365/.400, .271 EqA////Career batting line of .275/.341/.358--////Translated Career batting line of .281/.349/.371, .258 EqA////Spectacular career K/BB of 1.01/1--////Spent last 4 seasons, and most of career, in Cleveland (neutral park) ////Throughout career has shown ability to steal bases (19 in 2004, career high of 43 in 1997)////Career SB/CS of 318/129 (71.1%)////Besides career high of 14 HR in 2002, has never hit more than 9 HR in any season during his career////

10. Alex Gonzalez (28): Signed with Devil Rays, 1 year deal 2004 Statistics- .232/.270/ .419, 23 HR, 126/27 K/BB, 10.9 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .236/.273/.426, .238 EqA////Career batting line of .242/.287/.395--////Translated Career batting line of .244/.287/.400, .236 EqA////Riduculous career K/BB of 4.22/1--////Throughout career has shown very little ability to get on base, while showing a decent amount of power////Every year Gonzalez has had more than 500 AB, he has struck out more than 100 times////Has spent entire career in Florida (severe pitcher's park)////HR totals in last 3 healthy seasons is going up (01'-9, 03'-18, 04'-23)////

11. Ramon Martinez (32): Signed with Tigers, 1 year/$1.025 million 2004 Statistics- .246/.313/.387, 3 HR, 40/26 K/BB, 2.8 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .242/.310/.341, .234 EqA////Was a backup with the Chicago Cubs in 2004////Career batting line of .268/.330/.387--////Translated Career batting line of .272/.335/.391, .255 EqA////Very good career K/BB of 1.55/1--////Always has been a backup throughout career////Recent EqA trend is going downward (02'-.270, 03'-.253, 04'-.234)////Spent last four seasons in Chicago Cubs (slight pitcher's park), and San Francisco (severe pitcher's park)////

12. Craig Counsell (34): Signed with Diamondbacks, 2 yrs/$3.1 million 2004 Statistics- .241/.330/.315, 2 HR, 88/59 K/BB, 5.8 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .238/.325/.312, .237 EqA////Career batting line of .262/.345/.344--////Translated Career batting line of .258/.341/.340, .346 EqA////Great career K/BB of 1.14/1--////Went against his previous career numbers and stole 17 bases in 2004, and was only caught 4 times (80.1%)////Career SB/CS of 49/25 (66.2%)////Spent last four seasons in Arizona (severe hitter's park), and Milawaukee (neutral park)////

13. Desi Relaford (31): Signed with Rockies, 1 year/$950,000 2004 Statistics- .221/.296/.305, 6 HR, 56/34 K/BB, (-14.7) VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .216/.296/.299, .215 EqA////Career batting line of .246/.322/.351--////Translated Career batting line of .244/.321/.349, .242 EqA////Career K/BB of 1.67/1--////Stole 5 bases in 2004 after stealing 20 in 2003////Career SB/CS of 78/24(76.5%)////Each of last four seasons Relaford has hit either 6 or 8 HR////Recent EqA trend going downward (02'-.270, 03'-.244, 04'-.215)////Spent last four seasons in Kansas City (severe hitter's park), Seattle (severe pitcher's park), and New York Yankees (slight pitcher's park)////

14. Jose Vizcaino (37): Signed with Houston (1 year)2004 Statistics- .274/.311/.374, 3 HR, 39/20 K/BB, 6.5 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .268/.304/.369, .235 EqA////Career batting line of .272/.319/.347--////Translated Career batting line of .275/.322/.353, .238 EqA////Career K/BB of 1.95/1--////Spent last four seasons in Houston (moderate hitter's park)////Not a full time player since 1997 (568 AB)////

15. Rey Sanchez (37): Signed by Yankees, 1 year/$600,000 2004 Statistics- .246/.281/.337, 2 HR, 28/12 K/BB, (-3.5) VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .249/.288/.342, .220 EqA////Career batting line of .271/.308/.334////Translated Career batting line of .271/.310/.336, .229 EqA////Career K/BB of 2.22/1--////Career high of 6 HR (1999, KC)////Spent last 4 seasons in six different cities: Tampa Bay (neutral park), Boston (slight hitter's park), Seattle (severe pitcher's park), New York Mets (severe pitcher's park), Kansas City (severe hitter's park), and Atlanta (slight pitcher's park)////

Other notable free agents who have already signed with their former teams: Deivi Cruz (1 yr. deal with San Francisco), Neifi Perez (1 yr. deal with Chicago Cubs), and Tomas Perez (2 yr. deal with Philadelphia).

Next up, free-agent third basemen.

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

Free-Agent Second Basemen

2004-11-05T02:13:00.000-05:00

Now for the scouting reports on Free-Agent Second Basemen.

I believe this year's crop of second basemen is pretty good.

Again, free-agents are ranked ranked by whom I believe is the best available based on age, recent performance, career numbers, translated numbers, and injuries.

***This is an article in a series of articles reviewing 2004 free agents. Any questions you may have can most likely be answered in the first article of the series: "Free-Agent Catchers"***

1. Mark Bellhorn(30): Signed with Red Sox 2004 Statistics- .264/.373/.444, 17 HR, 177/88 K/BB, 39.1 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .258/.373/.446, .285 EqA////Career batting line of .242/.354/.412--////Translated career batting line of .242/.356/.420, .272 EqA////Career K/BB of exactly 2/1--////Last 4 seasons spent in Boston (slight hitter's park), Colorado (severe hitter's park), and Chicago Cubs (slight pitcher's park)////Only has played two full seaons, and in those two seasons (2002, and 2004) his EqA's were .300 and .285////2004 represent career highs in AVG, K's, and BB's for Bellhorn////

2. Jeff Kent(37): Signed with Dodgers, 2 years (estimated $17 million) 2004 Statistics - .289/.348/.531, 27 HR, 96/49 K/BB, 52.1 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .283/.347/.524, .288 EqA////Career batting line of .289/.352/.505--////Translated career batting line of .292/.356/.517, .290 EqA////Career K/BB of 2.12/1--////Last 4 seasons spent in Houston(moderate hitter's park), and SF(severe pitcher's park)////2004 represented worst showing in AVG, OBP, and EqA for Kent since 1997////

3. Miguel Cairo(31): Signed with Mets, 1 yr/$900,000 2004 Statistics- .292/.346/.417, 6 HR, 49/18 K/BB, 22.4 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .301/.358//.434, .276 EqA////Career batting line of .273/.322/.370--////Translated career batting line of .273/.323/.395, .250 EqA////Career K/BB of 1.92/1--////Last 4 seasons spent in New York Yankees (slight pitcher's park), and St. Louis(moderate pitcher's park)////Cairo is the only second basemen whose EqA trend in the last three year is going upwards (02'-.240, 03'-241, 04'-.288)////No longer a SB threat like he was in 1998 - 2000 (98'-19, 99'-22, 00'-28), but did steal 11 bases for New York this year////2004 represented best year in Cairo's career according to EqA////

4. Placido Polanco(29): Accepted Arbitration with Phillies, 2004 Statistics - .298/.345/.441, 17 HR, 39/27 K/BB, 30.0 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .296/.342/.439, .268 EqA////Career batting line of .296/.339/.410--////Translated career batting line of .296/.338/.412, .261 EqA////Great career K/BB of 1.41/1--////Last 4 seasons spent in Philadelphia (moderate pitchers park in 01', 02', 03 ', and a slight hitter's park in 2004)////Huge surge in HR last 2 years (15 in 03', 19 in 04;), every other season in the Major Leagues, Polanco hit no more than 6 HR////Has shown an ability to steal bases (14 SB in 2003)////

5. Todd Walker(32): Signed with Cubs, 1 year ($2.5 million) 2004 Statistics- .274/.352/.468, 15 HR, 52/43 K/BB, 27.0 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .269/.350/.458, .274 EqA////Career batting line of .289/.347/.437--////Translated career batting line of .282/.393/.429, .266 EqA////Very Good Career K/BB of 1.47/1--////Spent last 4 seasons in four different cities: Boston (slight hitter's park), Colorado (severe hitter's park), Cincinatti (Neutral park), and Chicago Cubs (slight pitcher's park)////2004 represent Walker's second best season of career according to EqA (2000, Colorado = .276 EqA)////Has hit 12-15 HR every year since 2001////

6. Tony Womack(35): Signed with Yankees, 2 years ($4 million) 2004 Statistics- .307/.349/.385, 5 HR, 60/36 K/BB, 33.3 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .309/.353/.386, .266 EqA////Career batting line of .274/.319/.362--////Translated career batting line of .267/.311/.352, .244 EqA////Career K/BB of 2.06/1--////Spent last four seaons in 4 cities: St. Louis (moderate pitcher's park), Chicago Cubs (slight pitcher's park), Arizona (severe hitter's park), and Colorado (severe hitter's park)////Can steal bases--every year when healthy, Womack has stolen between 26-72 bases////2004 represented Womack's career best season according to EqA in season with 100+ AB////

7. Carlos Baerga(36): --only 85 AB's in 2004-- 2003 Statistics- .343/.396/.464, 4 HR, 20/18 K/BB, 18.8 VORP////2003 Translated Statistics- .332/.350/.458, .289 EqA////Career batting line of .292/.332/.425--////Translated career batting line of .300/.345/.459, .273 EqA////Career K/BB of 1.98/1--////Didn't play much last year due to injury////2004 EqA = .215--////Has been a backup since return to baseball in 2002////Spent last three seasons in Arizona (severe pitcher's park) and Boston (slight hitter's park)////

8. Eric Young(38): Signed with Milwaukee, 1 year ($1 million) 2004 Statistics- .288/.377/.381, 1 HR, 28/43 K/BB, 12.8 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .277/.373/.375, .266 EqA////Career batting line of .285/.361/.392--////Translated career batting line of .272/.350/.379, .262 EqA////Career K/BB of .689/1 (I haven't done the research, but that ratio has to be one of the best ever)--////Last 4 seasons spent in Texas (severe hitter's park), SF (severe pitcher's park), and Milwaukee (neutral park)////When healthy, Young has stolen between 28-74 bases every year////Career SB/CS of 450/160-(2.81/1)////

9. Roberto Alomar(37): Signed by Devil Rays, 1 year/$600,000 2004 Statistics- .263/.321/.392, 4 HR, 31/14 K/BB, 3.0 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .254/.311/.382, 211 EqA//// Career batting line of .300/.371/.443--////Translated career batting line of .308/.382/.472, .295 EqA////Spent last season in both Chicago (Whitesox), and Arizona////Spectacular career K/BB of 1.10/1--////Spent last 4 season in 4 different cities: NY Mets (severe pitcher's park), Chicago (slight hitter's park), Arizona (severe hitter's park), and Cleveland (neutral park)////No longer a SB threat////

10. Mark Grudzielanek(35): Signed with Cardinals, 1 year/$1 million 2004 Statistics - .307/.347/.432, 6 HR, 32/15 K/BB, 16.0 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .301/.341/.426, .264 EqA////Career batting line of .287/.330/.389--////Translated career batting line of .288/.330/.394, .254 EqA////Not a very good career K/BB of 2.67/1--////Injured for part of 2004////Last four seasons spent in Los Angeles(severe pitcher's park) and Chicago Cubs(slight pitcher's park)////Battled Todd Walker for playing time last year in Chicago////2004 represented second best season in career in SLG% for Grudzielanek (.436 in Los Angeles in 1999)////

11. Enrique Wilson(31): Signed minor league contract with Orioles 2004 Statistics - .213/.254/.325, 6 HR, 20/15 K/BB, (-7.9) VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .217/.266/.332, .209 EqA////Career batting line of .246/.288/.352--////Translated career batting line of .243/.290/.351, .223 EqA////Career K/BB of 1.95/1--////Last four seasons spent in New York Yankees (slight pitcher's park) and Pittsburgh (neutral park)////

12. Juan Castro(33): Signed with Minnesota (2 years-$2.05 million) 2004 Statistics- .244/.277/.378, 5 HR, 51/14 K/BB, (-1.2) VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .247/.280/.380, .228 EqA////Career batting line of .226/.269/.331--////Translated career batting line of .226/.269/.332, .210 EqA////Terrible career K/BB of 2.99/1--////Spent last four seaons in Cincinatti (neutral park)////Castro has never broken .300 in OBP in his entire career////

13. Pokey Reese(32): Signed with Mariners, 1 year/$1.2 million 2004 Statistics - .221/.271/.303, 3 HR, 60/17 K/BB, (-6.9) VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .211/.265/.297, .205 EqA////Career batting line of .248/.307/.352--////Translated career batting line of .241/.299/.342, .235 EqA////Not-so-good career K/BB of 2.35/1--////Spent last four injury-ridden seasons in Boston (slight hitter's park), Pittsburgh (neutral park), and San Diego (severe pitcher's park)////Every full healthy season (400+ AB), except 2002, Reese has hit 9 or more HR, and stolen 25 or more bases////

Next up, free-agent shortstops.

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com

Free Agent First Basemen

2004-11-02T01:34:00.000-05:00

I am sorry it has been so long since my last article was posted.

It's just that the day I was planning on posting this article, I began my four-day long celebration of the Boston Redsox World Series' Victory--which included going to the parade in downtown Boston.

So after the long hiatus, and the long celebration, I continue my series of articles that take a brief look at the 2004 free-agents at each position.

This article will give brief scouting reports on the 2004 crop of free-agent first basemen. The scouting reports are sorted just like those of the catchers' in the previous article ("Free-Agent Catchers").

First basemen are ranked by whom I believe is the best available based on age, recent performance, career numbers, translated numbers, and injuries.

1. Richie Sexson (30): Signed with Mariners, 4 years (50 million) Injured in 2004- 2003 #'s- .272/.379/.548, .927 OPS, 45 HR, 151/98 K/BB, 58.7 VORP////2003 Translated Statistics- .272/.378/.555- .303 EqA////Has hit between 29-45 HR's each year since 2001, except for injury season 2004 where he hit 9 HR's in 23 games before injury////Career batting line of .271/.349/.528--great power////Translated career batting line of .270/.346/.530- .290 EqA////Career K/BB of 2.36/1--////Before Injury, 3 Year trend of EqA going upward (01'-.290, 02'-.295, 03'-.307)////Last three full seasons spent in Miller Park in Milwaukee--a neutral park////

2. Carlos Delgado (33): Coming off injury-plagued 2004 (458 AB)- Signed with Marlins, 4 years/$52 million 2004 #'s- .269/.372/.535, .907 OPS, 32 HR, 115/69 K/BB, 42.8 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .263/.378/.537- .303 EqA////First sub-.400 OBP since '99////Career batting line of .282/.392/.556--great power////Translated Career batting line- .280/.395/.568- .317 EqA////Great career K/BB of 1.5/1--////Spent entire career in Toronto (moderate hitter's park)////

3. Travis Lee (30): Injured in 2004- 2003 #'s- .275/.348/.459, .807 OPS, 19 HR, 97/64 K/BB, 30.1 VORP////2003 Translated Statistics- .277/.358/.471- .283 EqA////Career batting line of .258/.340/.411////Translated batting line of .257/.339/.415- .263 EqA////Great career K/BB of 1.49/1--////Can steal a base, career SB/CS ratio of 47/14////Career high SB- 17 ('99) ////2003 was best season by OPS of his career////Spent career in TB(Neutral park), Phil(moderate pitcher's park), and Az(extreme hitters park)////

4. Brad Fullmer (30): 2004 #'s- .233/.310/.442, .752 OPS, 11 HR, 30/24 K/BB, 4.8 VORP ////2004 Translated Statistics- .220/.303/.431- .250 EqA////Last year was worst of Fullmer's career////Career batting line of .279/.336/.486--Great Power////Translated career batting line of .277/.336/.492- .277 EqA////Very Good Career K/BB of 1.73/1--////Has been a backup the last 2 years///Last four years spent in Texas(severe hitter's park), Anaheim(Slight Pitcher's park), and Toronto(moderate hitters park)////

5. Tino Martinez (37): Signed with Yankees, 1 year/$3 million 2004 #'s- .262/.362/.461, .823 OPS, 23 HR, 72/66 K/BB, 30.7 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .267/.373/.476- .290 EqA////Last year was Martinez's best year since 2001////Career batting line of .272/.345/.472--////Translated career batting line of .278/.352/.498- .285 EqA////Wonderful Career K/BB of 1.37/1////Latest 3 year trend of EqA going up each year(02'-.272, 03'-.276, 04'-.290)////Last three years spent in Tampa Bay (Neutral Park), and St. Louis (Moderate pitcher's park)////

6. J.T. Snow (37): Option picked up by Giants, Coming off injury plagued season, but still put up his career best season, according to OPS in 2004////2004 #'s- .327/.429/.529, .958 OPS, 12 HR, 61/58 K/BB, 46.9 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .322/.427/.519- .322 EqA////Career batting line of .267/.358/.433--////Translated career batting line of .270/.359/.445- .276 EqA////Very good career K/BB of 1.49/1--////Latest 3 year trend of EqA going up every year (02'-.261, 03'-.286, 04'-.322)////Has spent latter half of long career in San Francisco(a severe pitchers park)////

7. Tony Clark (33): Signed by Diamondbacks, 1 year/$750,000 2004 #'s-.221/.297/.458, 755 OPS, 16 HR, 92/26 K/BB, 6.1 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .227/.305/.475- .262 EqA////As you can see by his statistics, he WON'T get on base alot, he WILL strike out alot, he WON'T get alot of basehits, he WON'T walk alot, but he WILL hit some HR's////Career batting line of .264/.340/.481--mostly power////Translated career batting line of .286/.344/.495- .282 EqA////Career K/BB of 2.28/1--////Has been a backup since 2001////Last 4 years of career spent in Yankee Stadium(slight pitcher's park), Fenway Park (slight hitter's park), and Comerica Park(moderate pitchers park)

8. John Olerud (36): 2004 #'s- .259/.359/.374, .733 OPS, 9 HR, 61/61 K/BB, 13.4 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .266/.368/.392- .273 EqA////Last three-year HR trend= 2002-22 HR, 2003-10 HR, 2004- 9 HR////In a steady decline since 2002////Career batting line of .295/.399/.465--////Translated career batting line of .303/.409/.495- .308 EqA////Wonderful career K/BB of 1.26/1--////Latest 3 year trend of EqA going downward (02'-.281, 03'-.278, 04'-.268)////spent last four years in New York Yankees(slight pitchers park) and Seattle(severe pitchers park)////

9. Robert Fick (31): Injured for most of 2004////2003 #'s- .269/.335/.418, .753 OPS, 11 HR, 47/42 K/BB, 14.3 VORP////2003 Translated Statistics-.270/.340/.424- .265 EqA//// Career batting line of .260/.329/.425--////Translated career batting line of .265/.337/.439- .267 EqA////Great career K/BB of 1.59/1--////Latest 3 year trend in EqA going down each year (01'-.283, 02'-.272, 03'-.266)////Spent last four years in Tampa Bay(neutral park), Atlanta(slight pitcher's park), and Detroit(Moderate pitcher's park)////

10. Randall Simon (30)-Didn't play full seasn in 2004 due to being released//// 2004 #'s- .187/.266/.245- .511 OPS, 3 HR, 19/18 K/BB////2004 Translated Statistics- .189/.267/.254- .177 EqA////Played for Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh in 2004 and was released by both////Last full season (+300 AB) in 2003, his numbers that year were .274/.305/.417, .22 OPS, 0 HR, 30/12 K/BB, 6.1 VORP////Career batting line of .283/.320/.424////Translated career batting line of .286/.325/.434, .259 EqA--clearly not as bad as he played last season////Career K/BB of 1.78/1--which surprisingly does not lead to higher OBP////Latest 3 year trend in EqA going down every year (01'-.274, 02'-.271, 03'-.247)////Spent last 4 season in Detroit(moderate pitcher's park), Chicago Cubs (slight pitcher's park), Pittsburgh (neutral park), and Tampa Bay (neutral park)////

11. Rafael Palmeiro (40): Agreed to 1 year deal with Orioles 2004 #'s- .258/.359/.436, .795 OPS, 23 HR, 61/86 K/BB, 31.3 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .258/.368/.445- .282 EqA////According to OPS, Palmeiro had his worst year since 1989////Career batting line of .289/.372/.517--////Translated career batting line of .294/.380/.548- .307 EqA////Unbelievable career K/BB of .996/1--////Latest 3 year trend of EqA going down each year (02'-.317, 03'-.288, 04'-.282)////Recent part of his career spent in Baltimore(severe pitchers park)////

12. Ruben Sierra (39)- Signed with Yankees, 1 yr/$1.5 million 2004 #'s- .244/.296/.456, .752 OPS, 17 HR, 55/25 K/BB, 10.2 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .249/.307/.474- .263 EqA////Career batting line of .269/.317/.452--very good power////Translated career batting line of .277/.329/.494-even better power!!- .276 EqA////Career K/BB of 1.99/1--////Spent last 4 seasons in Yankee Stadium (slight pitcher's park), Texas (severe hitter's park), and Seattle (severe pitcher's park)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Next up, 2004 free-agent second basemen.

The wait will not be as long as it was between the articles on catchers and first basemen. Even though the celebration will continue throughout the off-seaon.

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

Free Agent Catchers

2004-10-23T18:42:00.000-04:00

Now it is the end of the baseball season, and all that is left is the World Series. After that is decided we enter the off-season. The season where free-agents must be resigned by their former teams, or must sign with new teams.

Everybody knows there are alot of high-value free-agents out there, and many teams will covet their services. For this article I want to take a look at the ones that I believe can have a positive impact on any team next year.

This will be the first article of many in a series reviewing free-agents by position.

What these articles will be, is basically a small scouting report on each free-agent, that you can refer to in the future, to know how valuable each player is.

This article, as can be seen in the title, will look at this years crop of free-agent catchers.

Before I get started I would like to point out that this year's crop of free-agent catchers is very sub-par. There are only a few catchers available that have the capability to make a noticeable difference for any team.

The free-agent list consisted of 31 catchers. I cut this list down to ten, based on which catchers I believe can possibly make an immediate positive impact on whatever team they sign with.

The ten catchers on my new list were Jason Varitek, Doug Mirabelli, Todd Greene, Gregg Zaun, Damian Miller, Mike Redmond, Mike Matheny, John Flaherty, Todd Pratt, and Javier Valentin.

My opinions on these catchers were based on their age, recent performance, ballpark factors, career numbers, and translated statistics.

Translated statistics are player's numbers adjusted for ballpark factors, quality of competition (pitching), and league offensive level.

In the scouting reports, these translated statistics will be followed by Equivlent Average (EqA). Equivalent Average is a measure of total offensive value per out, with corrections for league offensive level, home park, and team pitching. EqA considers batting as well as baserunning, but not the value of a position player's defense. The scale is deliberately set to approximate that of batting average. Average is .260.

--Definition of EqA provided by Baseball Prospectus.

Here is a small scouting report on each of those free-agents. Each player will be listed by ranking of which catcher I believe is the best available. Players age for 2005 season in parenthesees.

Actual statistics and translated statistics are present in scouting reports. Translations are performed by Clay Davenport at Baseball Prospectucs.

1. Jason Varitek (33)- Signed with Red Sox, 4 years ($40 million) 2004 #'s- .296/.390/.482, .872 OPS, 18 HR, 126/62 K/BB, 47.3 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .292/.390/.485, .300 EqA////Coming of his career-best season according to OPS///Has spent his whole career in Fenway Park--a slight hitter's park///Career batting line of .271/.347/.451--///Translated career batting line of .269/.349/.456, .275 EqA////Career K/BB ratio is less than 2/1--///

2. Doug Mirabelli (34)- Signed with Boston (2 years-$3 million) 2004 #'s- .281/.331/.525, .856 OPS, 9 HR, 46/19 K/BB, 15.8 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .276/.366/.533, .299 EqA////Never has been a full time catcher////2004 represented his career highs in AVG/OBP/SLG and HR (tied-9 in 2001)///2.14/1 career K/BB////Career batting line of .242/.331/.426--good power///Translated career batting line of .243/.333/.431, .264 EqA////spent 4 of last 5 years in Fenway Park--a slight hitter's park///

3. Damian Miller (35)- Signed with Milwaukee (3 years-$8.5 million) 2004 #'s- .272/.339/.403, .742 OPS, 9 HR, 87/39 K/BB, 20.1 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .275/.344/.413, .263 EqA////Has hit between 9-13 HR every year since '99////Career 2.52/1 K/BB ratio/// Career batting line of .264/.331/.419--////Translated career batting line of .259/.325/.416, .256 EqA////'04 in Oakland in a neutral park, '03 in Wrigley Field--a slight pitcher's park, and '99-'02 in Arizona's Bank One Ballpark--a severe hitters park, and his SLG% in those years show it (.446,.446,.441,.424,.434)////

4. Gregg Zaun (34)- Signed with Bluejays, 1 year/$1.5 million 2004 #'s- .269/.367/.393, .760 OPS, 6 HR, 61/47 K/BB, 17.6 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .263/.368/.389, .267 EqA////Mostly a backup throughout career////Great career K/BB of 1.1/1, which surprisingly doesn't lead to high career OBP///Career batting line of .250/.331/.375--///Translated career batting line of .246/.336/.377, .252 EqA////Not alot of power, career high in HR is 7 (2000)////Spent 2000-2004 in moderate (Hou, Tor) to severe (KC, Col) hitter's parks////

5. Mike Redmond (34)- Signed with Minnesota (2 years-$1.8 million) 2004 #'s- .256/.315/.341, .656 OPS, 2 HR, 28/41 K/BB, 3.8 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .258/.316/.352, .237 EqA////Biggest question mark of all free agent catchers, look at translated career batting lines by year:

1998- .336/.374/.460, .286 EqA (118 AB)
1999- .299/.371/.351, .260 EqA (242 AB)
2000- .249/.308/.299, .218 EqA (210 AB)
2001- .314/.376/.438, .283 EqA (141 AB)
2002- .319/.386/.395, .274 EqA (256 AB)
2003- .242/.307/.325, .227 EqA (125 AB)
2004- ..238/.316/.352, .237 EqA (246 AB)

Ranked #5 because of possiblility of repeating either 2001 or 2002 as a backup////Very little HR power (Career High 4 HR (2001)///Great career K/BB of 1.61/1--////Possibly too old to even consider a repeat of "glory years"////Translated career batting line of .237/.287/.368, .254 EqA////Has spent entire career in severe pitchers park (FLA)///

6. Javier Valentin (29)- Signed with Reds, 1 yr/$450,000 2004 #'s- .233/.293/.381, .674 OPS, 6 HR, 36/17 K/BB, 1.9 VORP///2004 Translated Statistics- .237/.298/.381, .237 EqA////Ranked #6 simply because he is youngest of group and has improved in all categories over his 2003 campaign (.222/.254/.356, .610 OPS, 31/15 K/BB, 3 HR)////Career K/BB of 2.52/1--///Career batting line of .229/.283/.360--///Translated Career batting line of .237/.284/.361, .226 EqA////Out of Major League Baseball in 2000 and 2001///Since his return in 2002 has spent all his time in neutral parks (Cin, TB, and Min)

7. Todd Greene (34)- Signed with Rockies, 1 years ($750,000) 2004 #'s- .282/.325/.508, .833 OPS, 10 HR, 38/13 K/BB, 12.5 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .262/.305/.476, .263 EqA//// Strictly power as a backup his entire career (except '99 in Anaheim)////Horrible K/BB of more than 5.0/1 for his career (main reason for such low ranking)////Career batting line of .248/.279/.445--all power///Translated Career Batting line of .241/.273/.440, .240 EqA////spent last three seasons in hitter-friendly Texas and Colorado///

8. Todd Pratt (38)- Signed with Phillies, 1 year ($750,000) 2004 #'s- .258/.351/.367, .718 OPS, 3 HR, 38/18 K/BB, 4.9 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .258/.352/.355, .254 EqA////Has very little HR power (Career High 8 HR in 2000)////Career Backup//// Good Career K/BB of 2.03/1 which leads to high career OBP of .352--////Career batting line of .255/.352/.404--///Translated career batting line of .256/.351/.409, .267 EqA////going to be 38 next year///Last year was spent in new Philadelphia park, which turned out to be a slight hitters park///

9. John Flaherty (37)- Signed with NY Yankees (1 year) 2004 #'s- .252/.286/.465, .751 OPS, 6 HR, 25/5 K/BB, 3.8 VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .258/.293/.475, .253 EqA////Decent power (career high 14 HR in '99)////Career K/BB of 2.89/1////As a backup the last two years had great SLG% (.457 in '03, and .465 in '04) in slight pitchers park (NYY)////Career Batting line of .255/.293/.382--////Translated Career batting line of .256/.294/.390, .236 EqA////Going to be 37 next year////

10. Mike Matheny (34)- Signed with Giants, 3 years ($10.5 million) 2004 #'s- .247/.282/.348, .630 OPS, 5 HR, 83/28 K/BB, (-0.8) VORP////2004 Translated Statistics- .249/.294/.351, .225 EqA////Absolutely Horrible career batting line of .239/.293/.336--////Translated career batting line of .238/.292/.335, .222 EqA////Career high is 8 HR ('96 and '03)////Career K/BB of 2.42/1--////Great defensive catcher (only thing that must keep him around)////Since 2000 has played in moderate pitcher's park (StL)

After Varitek, there is a tremendous drop-off in the quality of catchers.

Another point to notice is that no catcher on this list, besides Valentin are on the good side of 30. They are all older, and can have a significant drop-off any time now. Another reason that this is a sub-par crop of free agent catchers.

Any of the free-agent catchers I left off this list can obviously have an impact on a team as well, but based on their age, career numbers, recent numbers, and translated numbers, they have a much smaller chance, and therefore weren't included in my scouting report.

For reference though, here is the complete list of catchers that are free-agents in 2004:

Einar Diaz
Robert Machado
Mike DiFelice
A.J. Hinch
Bobby Estaella
Gary Bennett
Pat Borders
Tim Laker
Ramon Castro
Jason Varitek
Sandy Alomar Jr.
Doug Mirabelli
Todd Greene
Gregg Zaun
Kelly Stinett
Mike Redmond
John Flaherty
Damian Miller
Dan Wilson
Brook Fordyce
Greg Myers
Brent Mayne
Todd Hundley
Todd Pratt
Mike Matheny
Chris Widger
Alberto Castillo
Keith Osik
Ken Huckaby
Paul Bako
Javier Valentin

If there are any catchers on this list that you think I should have prepared a scouting report for, please let me know by writing me an email at frnkbndy@yahoo.com. I will prepare a scouting report for any of these catchers if the complaint is reasonable.

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

Hats Off, Redsox!!

2004-10-21T21:44:00.000-04:00

I do this not because I am a die-hard Boston Redsox fan. I do this because what the Redsox accomplished last night (October 20, 2004) by defeating the New York Yankees 10-3 in Yankee Stadium, was absolutely, without a doubt, unbelieveable.

They not only made history by forcing a game 7 after being down 3-0 in a best of seven series, they made history by winning that game 7, and therefore winning the series. The first team to accomplish both feats.

So I have nothing else to say but:

HATS OFF TO THE REDSOX

P.S. The curse is not reversed until the Redsox win a World Series.

Palmeiro vs. other First Basemen of his Era.

2004-10-19T14:29:00.000-04:00

In my last article "Rafael Palmeiro in Hall of Fame? Of course." I showed that Rafael Palmeiro can be mentioned in the same breath as Willie McCovey, and therefore is better than about half of the current Hall of Fame first basemen, which makes him an easy Hall of Famer.

To counter this though, I get arguments that Palmeiro wasn't the best first basemen in his era, and because of this, he should not get voted into the Hall of Fame. I decided to compare him to the other first basemen of his era, to see if this was true.

The first basemen I used in this comparison were:

Jeff Bagwell (through 2004)
Mark McGwire
Fred McGriff
John Olerud (through 2004)
Mark Grace
Will Clark

Here are their stats [AVG/OBP/SLG, OPS, HR, Hits (ranking in OPS)]

Jeff Bagwell: .297/.408/.542, .950 OPS, 446 HR, 2289 Hits (2)

Fred McGriff: .284/.377/.509, .886 OPS, 493 HR, 2490 Hits (4)

John Olerud: .295/.399/.465, .864 OPS, 248 HR, 2189 Hits (6)

Mark Grace: .303/.383/.442, .825 OPS, 173 HR, 2445 Hits (7)

Mark McGwire: .263/.394/.588, .982 OPS, 583 HR, 1626 Hits (1)

Will Clark: .303/.384/.497, .881 OPS, 284 HR, 2176 Hits (5)
------------------------------------------------------------------
Rafael Palmeiro: .298/.372/.517, .889 OPS, 551 HR, 2922 Hits (3)

According the the OPS ranking, Palmeiro is the third best first basemen of his era.

Now the question is, "Should his ranking in his era effect his bid to the Hall of Fame?" My answer is no.

Palmeiro still put up the numbers, and still hit 551 HR; both of which have nothing to do with Jeff Bagwell, and Mark McGwire (the two 1B ranked higher than Palmeiro).

A player with Palmeiro's career numbers shouldn't be criticized because there happened to be two first basemen playing at the same time as him, who were better.

Now I could understand the argument of not putting Palmeiro into the Hall of Fame because of him not being the best first basemen in his era IF he weren't better than about half of the current first basemen already in the Hall of Fame, but he IS. (see last article "Rafael Palmeiro in Hall of Fame? Of course.")

So again, it is clear that Palmeiro should be inducted into the Hall of Fame. And, of course, so should Jeff Bagwell and Mark McGwire, who were even better than Palmeiro.

Sidenote: I decided not to use Frank Thomas in the comparison because he WILL enter the Hall of Fame as a DH. If I did use Thomas, who did play some first base, his numbers looked like so:

Thomas (through 2004): .308/.429/.567, .996 OPS, 436 HR, 2113 Hits (1)

Thomas would have been the best player of them all.

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

Rafael Palmeiro in Hall of Fame?? Of Course.

2004-10-18T18:23:00.000-04:00

I don't know why, but there is some debate on whether Rafael Palmeiro should be inducted into the Hall of Fame when he is eligible. I do not know the reasons that people have to not induct him, but I am going to present you with reasons why he IS a Hall of Famer.

Throughout Rafael Palmeiro's storied career he was by-and-large a First Baseman. Since this is the position that he will be inducted under, let's compare him to the other, modern-era, non negro-league, first basemen already in the Hall of Fame.

I am going to look at the hitting lines of all the Hall of Famers compared to Palmeiro's.

***I was going to use K/BB ratio in this comparison, but I decided against it because it does not matter if a player struck out alot, or even walked a very small amount; all that matters is that the numbers presented on the hitting lines were put up by each player--regardless of how they did it.***

Hitting Lines go as follows: AVG/OBP/SLG, OPS, HR, Hits (Ranking in OPS)

Lou Gehrig- .340/.447/.632, 1.079, 493 HR, 2721 Hits (1)

Jimmie Foxx- .325/.428/.609, 1.037, 534 HR, 2646 Hits (2)

Hank Greenberg- .313/.412/.605, 1.017, 331 HR, 1628 Hits (3)

Harmon Killebrew- .256/.379/.509, .888, 573 HR, 2086 Hits (8)

Orlando Cepeda- .297/.350/.499, .849, 379 HR, 2351 Hits (9)

George Kelly- .297/.342/.452, .794, 148 HR, 1778 Hits (13)

Willie McCovey- .270/.374/.515, .889, 521 HR, 2211 Hits (6)

Johnny Mize- .312/.397/.562, .959, 359 HR, 2011 Hits (4)

Eddie Murray- .287/.359/.476, .835, 504 HR, 3255 Hits (11)

Tony Perez- .279/.341/.463, .804, 379 HR, 2732 Hits (12)

George Sisler- .340/.379/.468, .847, 102 HR, 2812 Hits (10)

Bill Terry- .314/.393/.506, .899, 154 HR, 2193 Hits (5)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Rafael Palmeiro (after 2004)- .289/.372/.517, .889, 551 HR, 2922 Hits (6)

The ranking at the end, OPS, is where I would rank Palmeiro within these Hall of Fame First Basemen.

OPS, in the Authors's belief, is the best all around stat for measuring exactly what a hitter is trying to do at the plate--get on base, get around the bases, and get others around the bases. This ranking system puts him sixth, tied with Willie McCovey, Palmeiro had more HR though.

Looking at that ranking, and combining it with Palmeiro's HR, it is clear that Palmeiro was a better first basemen than Willie McCovey; who is the sixth best 1B in the Hall of Fame now. That kind of puts this debate into perspective, huh?

The total Hits statistic used at the end of each player's hitting line is a stat I am not really fond of, but I used it because 3000 hits is seen as that magic number which equals an "automatic" bid into the Hall of Fame. And as can be seen, unless a tragedy happens, Palmeiro will surpass 3000 hits next year in 2005.

There is also another number which is viewed as an "automatic" bid to the Hall of Fame, a bid which Palmeiro already secured in 2003. This "automatic" bid is the number 500.

Five hundred Home Runs, that is.

So besides the fact that Palmeiro is already the sixth best First Basemen in the group of current Hall of Famers, he is going to have already secured the two "automatic" bids by next year--500 HR, and 3000 Hits. The only other 1B to do that was Eddie Murray.

Congratulations Raffy.

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

Mistake on October 14, 2004 ("Sosa for Soriano??")

2004-10-15T20:29:00.000-04:00

For those of you who read my post "Sosa for Soriano??" posted yesterday, October 14, 2004, let me apologize for that being a rough copy that I posted by accident.

In the middle of writing, and doing research for the article, I was forced to leave my computer for reasons beyond my control and I accidentally posted the article, instead of just saving it.

So if you read yesterday's post "Sosa for Soriano??" please read the latest version (directly below this post), posted on October 15, 2004. It is much different than the rough copy that was accidentally posted yesterday.

I apologize for this error.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggetions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com

Sosa For Soriano??

2004-10-15T20:22:00.000-04:00

During my latest viewing of many baseball websites, blogs, and forums I happened to see some articles and comments about the Chicago Cubs trading their beloved hero, Sammy Sosa to the Texas Rangers for free-swinging Alfonso Soriano.

Now I am not sure of any other players in the deal. I've heard names like Chan-Ho Park, and Mark Grudzielanek, but for now I am just going to look at Soriano and Sosa.

I want to see if this trade would be a good or bad trade for the Rangers. At first glimpse I thought, a young Alfonso Soriano for the aging Sosa would be a bad trade for the Rangers. Let's see if my initial reaction was correct.

First I checked Sosa's numbers the last three years to see how bad his recent decline really is.

Here are his numbers the previous three years:

2004: .253/.332/.517, .849 OPS, 133/56 (2.37) K/BB, 0 SB, 0 CS, 35 HR, 30.0 VORP

2003: .279/.358/.553, .911 OPS, 143/62 K/BB (2.31), 0 SB, 1 CS, 40 HR, 44.5 VORP

2002: .288/.399/.594, .993 OPS, 144/103 K/BB (1.40), 2 SB, 0 CS, 49 HR, 70.5 VORP

Every single category on the previous lines, beside SB's and CS's--which aren't relevant for Sosa anymore--, are in a steady decline.

Let's look at the drop in each category (beside SB):

Difference in 2003 compared to 2002 (2002 #'s minus 2003 #'s)

AVG: (-.009)
OBP: (-.041)
SLG: (-.036)
OPS: (-.082)
K/BB: (+0.91) Positive numbers are, obviously, bad in this case.
HR: (-9)
VORP: (-26.0)

Now, a look at the drop from 2003 to 2004 (2003 #'s minus 2004 #'s)

AVG: (-.026)
OBP: (-.026)
SLG: (-.041)
OPS: (-.062)
K/BB: (+0.06) Positive numbers are, obviously, bad in this case.
HR: (-5)
VORP: (-14.5)

Now that we know the numbers, lets project Sosa's 2005 season using the average drop in his last two seasons, and prorating them for 2005.

The upcoming prorated season most likely WILL NOT happen, but I do this just to show a "Worst-Case Scenario" for 2005.

Sammy Sosa 2005 prorated Worst-Case Scenario Season:

2005: .232/.287/.469, 756 OPS, 128/33 (3.88) K/BB, 28 HR, ***Cannot figure out VORP for next year***

Now that we see the Sammy Sosa's Worst-case Scenario 2005 Season, lets have a look at his Best Case Scenario season.

To figure out a "Best-case Scenario Season" I used 3/4 of the difference between Sosa's best season (2001), and his last season (2004), and then added that difference onto his 2004 numbers.

Sammy Sosa 2005 Best-Case Scenario Season:

**Again, since Sammy Sosa does not steal bases anymore, his stolen base statistics will not be used**

2005: .312/.416/.690, 1.106 OPS, 148/101 (1.46) K/BB, 57 HR

Again, this season will probably not happen for Sosa in 2005.

So now the last step to figuring out a probable 2005 season for Sammy Sosa is to "split the difference" between his Best, and Worst-Case Scenario 2005 Seasons.

Sammy Sosa 2005 "split difference" season:

.276/.362/.593, .955 OPS, 138/67 (2.06) K/BB, 43 HR

Thats a very good season. Now let's compare this 2005 version of Slammin' Sammy to a "split the difference" 2005 season by Alfonso Soriano.

First, let's look at Alfonso Soriano's last 3 Seasons:

2002: .300/.332/.547, .879 OPS, 157/23 (6.83) K/BB, 41 SB, 12 CS, 77 SB%, 28 HR, 77.6 VORP
2003: .290/.338/.525, .863 OPS, 130/38 (3.42) K/BB, 35 SB, 8 CS, 81 SB%, 38 HR, 69.9 VORP
2004: .280/.324/.484, .808 OPS, 121/33 (3.67) K/BB, 18 SB, 5 CS, 78 SB%, 39 HR, 40.5 VORP

Now, using the same method I used to project Sammy Sosa's Worst-Case Scenario season, here is Soriano's Worst-Cast scenario season:

**Please note that even though Soriano's numbers have declined every year, he has actually improved his K/BB from his ridiculous 2002 season. Since his other numbers continue to decline in spite of the improvement in the K/BB, I will continue to project his K's and BB's on the same curve as his other numbers. Basically, what I am saying is that, in Soriano's Worst-Case Scenario season, his K/BB ratio will actually improve, while his other numbers will worsen--much like he has done throughout his brief career.***

Alfonso Soriano's 2005 prorated Worst-Case Scenario Season:

2005: .266/.318/.443, .761 OPS, 104/38 (2.74) K/BB, 7 SB, 2 CS, 78 SB%, 22 HR

Now, using Soriano's 2002 Season as his best year, I am going to use 3/4 of the difference between that season and this latest season (2004), to figure out Soriano's Best-Case scenario season; just as I figured out Sosa's.

Alfonso Soriano's 2005 prorated Best-Case Scenario Season:

2005: .295/.344/.533, 877 OPS, 148/41 (3.60) K/BB, 35 SB, 10 CS, 78 SB%, 36 HR

Now, let's "split the difference" between Soriano's Worst and Best-Case scenario 2005 seasons to find out his probable 2005 season.

Alfonso Soriano 2005 "split difference" season:

2005: .283/.334/.493, .827 OPS, 126/40 (3.15) K/BB, 21 SB, 6 CS, 78 SB%, 29 HR

Now let's look at Sammy Sosa's, and Alfonso Soriano's "split differences" seasons.

Alfonso Soriano
2005: .283/.334/.493, .827 OPS, 126/40 (3.15) K/BB, 21 SB, 6 CS, 78 SB%, 29 HR

Sammy Sosa
2005: .276/.362/.593, .955 OPS, 138/67 (2.06) K/BB, 43 HR

Sammy Sosa, according to this system, will have a much better year at the plate than Soriano will. Soriano will steal bases though, while Sosa will steal none.

While SB's are a huge part of baseball, I believe that they are not as meaningful as a player's performance at the plate (AVG/OBP/SLG, OPS, and HR), because "you can't steal first base."

It is clear to see that if the Rangers completed this trade, they would be looking to Sosa to pay dividends immediately, which might be a stretch because of his age. The problem is that they couldn't count on Sosa for too much longer after that.

If one were to take into accordance the fact that Sosa is going to be 36 years old next year, with Soriano only being 29 years old, then it is reasonable to believe that Sosa's 2005 season will be closer to his Worst-Case scenario season, while Soriano's season will be closer to his Best-Case Scenario Season.

One could also look at the fact that if the trade were to happen, Sosa would be moving into The Ballpark at Arlington, a "severe hitter's park"-according to Baseball Prospectus, and Soriano would be moving into Wrigley Field, a "slight pitchers park."

Now, I cannot make a projection on how each players season will be affected by their age, except for the fact that it is widely known--and common sense for that matter--that players abilities decline with age.

So, as stated earlier, Soriano's numbers have a better chance of ending up on the "better side" of his "split difference"season, while Sosa's numbers have a better chance of ending up on the "worse side" of his split difference season. As a matter of fact, since Soriano is only 29 next year, he actually has a chance to surpass his best-case scenario season; Sosa also has a chance to do the same--but a much smaller chance because of his age. For the sake of argument though, I will keep both player's best-case scenario season as is.

I can, however, project Sosa's and Soriano's numbers in their new ballparks if the trade were to happen by using the ballpark factors provided by Baseball Prospectus.

Here are Sammy Sosa's, and Alfonso Soriano's "split difference" season, park-adjusted:

***Note, only hitting numbers (AVG/OBP/SLG, OPS, and HR will be affected***

Alfonso Soriano
2005 (in Wrigley Field): .276/.327/.481, .808 OPS, 28 HR

Sammy Sosa
2005 (in Arlington): .290/.379/.625, 1.004 OPS, 45 HR

Wow, The Ballpark in Arlington really is a "severe hitter's park." Soriano's number did slightly dip in Wrigley field.

So now the question is, "Even though Sosa may decline because of age, will a 2005 in decline by Sosa, in Arlington, be as good as a better-than-average 2005 by Soriano, in Arlington?"

The answer to that question is that a declined season by Sosa, if only a slight decline, in Arlington, against a improved season by Soriano in Arlington, would still favor Sosa, except for Stolen Bases.

So my initial reaction wasn't wrong or right. If the Rangers are looking for a short-term answer, Sosa could be that answer--especially in Arlington. If they are looking toward the future, Soriano is the answer.

So now I must ask, "Are the Rangers willing to lose Soriano, when he is only 29 years old next year, in exchange for a possible great one season by 36 year old Sammy Sosa?"

Now I cannot answer that question, but I believe with the core of young players that Texas has on it's Major League Club now (Young, Tiexara, Blalock, Soriano, Nix, Mench, Drese...), they definitely have a close eye on the future, and look like they want to keep Soriano.

Then again, who's to say that maybe the Rangers wouldn't be willing to trade away one of their youngsters, since they have so many, for a veteran, proven leader.

It is also important to remember that by not trading Soriano, the Rangers would keep him in the the bandbox that they call home, The Ballpark in Arlington. So Soriano would stay the benefactor of the ballpark's small dimensions.

It is my belief that if the Rangers were to go through with this trade, all they would be doing is reducing their odds of having multiple above-average years turned-in by one of their players (either Sosa or Soriano) in the next three to five years.

Now that my initial question, "Is this a good or bad trade for the Rangers?" has no definitive answer, I will give my opinion on what I would do.

I think it would be a good trade for the Rangers organization because they have so many young players that they can afford to get rid of one of them and bring in a proven veteran whose numbers will only get better in Arlington. I would do the trade straight up, without looking at the money aspect. If I do look at the money aspect though, this is what I see:

"If Sosa were to stay with the Cubs next season, they would owe him $17 million for the year and face either an $18 million option in 2006 or a $4.5 million buyout.

If he's traded, however, the 2006 option is guaranteed and 2007 becomes a $19 million option year with a $4.5 million buyout."

-Courtesy of T.J. Quinn, writer for the New York Daily News.

So after looking at the money, of course I would not complete the trade. Even though I believe it is a good trade for Texas.

If other players are involved in this deal though, everything changes.

Also, it is important to remember that these numbers are just projections, and nowhere near fact. I do believe they are a good base though, for comparing these players.

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

Question: Why aren't the Cubs in the Post-Season?? Answer: I have no idea.

2004-10-09T22:47:00.000-04:00

What I am about to present is something I did not think was possible....before I conducted the research for the article.

What I did not think was possible, was for a team to improve basically every aspect of their game from one year to the next, and then have a worse team that very next year; than the respective team the year before. Man, was I wrong.

Sadly, the example of this is the 2003 Chicago Cubs vs. the 2004 Chicago Cubs.

While watching this post-season I wondered why the Cubbies weren't partaking in the festivities. I decided to figure the answer out on my own. There always IS an answer, right??

I did a comparison of each postional player on the 2003 Cubs, who advanced to the NLCS, to the 2004 Cubs that missed the post-season.

I used VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) as my comparison stat. I used this because it measures the amount of runs a certain player creates--over a replacement player--, which is what directly leads to team wins and losses.

Here is each positional player's VORP for both 2003 and 2004:

2oo4 1B- Derrek Lee-46.5 VORP
2003 1B- Eric Karros/Hee Seop Choi/Randall Simon- 27.7 VORP

2004 2B- Todd Walker/Mark Grudzielanek- 43.0 VORP
2003 2B- Grudzielanek- 34.5 VORP

2004 3B- Aramis Ramirez- 62.8 VORP
2003 3B- Ramirez/Mark Bellhorn/Jose Hernandez/Lenny Harris- 5.5 VORP

2004 SS- Ramon Martinez/Nomar Garciaparra/Alex Gonzalez- 13.6 VORP
2003 SS- Gonzalez- 13.9 VORP

2004 RF- Sammy Sosa- 30.0 VORP
2003 RF- Sosa- 44.5 VORP

2004 LF- Moises Alou- 55.0 VORP
2003 LF- Alou- 30.5 VORP

2004 CF- Corey Patterson- 30.9 VORP
2003 CF- Patterson/Lofton- 47.6 VORP

2004 C- Michael Barrett- 33.6 VORP
2003 C- Damien Miller/Paul Bako- 5.3 VORP

2004 Positional Player Total VORP- 315.4
2003 Positional Player Total VORP- 209.5

It is very, very easy to see that this year's offense was much better thank last years, by 105.9 runs. This was not even close.

So it must have been Chicago's pitching, right???

Here is the comparison of Starting Pitchers (Using 5 Starting Pitchers):

2004 SP Greg Maddux-33.2 VORP
2004 SP Carlos Zambrano- 61.3 VORP
2004 SP Matt Clement- 36.9 VORP
2004 SP Kerry Wood- 27.9 VORP
2004 SP Glendon Rusch/Mark Prior - 51.8 VORP
(I use these two pitchers--Prior/Rusch-- to combine as one because if this was not done, the 2004 Cubs wouldn't have had at least 4 pitchers over 160 IP like their 2003 counterparts. Also I did not want to use Rucsh as part of the 2004 Chicago Bullpen because he was used primarily as a starter this year.)

2004 SP Total VORP- 211.1

2003 SP Carlos Zambrano- 47.4 VORP
2003 SP Mark Prior- 66.7 VORP
2003 SP Kerry Wood- 56.5 VORP
2003 SP Matt Clement- 27.6 VORP
2003 SP Shawn Estes- (-16.6) VORP

2003 SP Total VORP- 181.6

Okay, so now we know it wasn't the starting pitching that worsened the Cubs this year, they prevented 29.5 more runs (211.1 - 181.6). So it had to be the bullpen, right???

Top six relievers each year by IP:

2004 RP LaTroy Hawkins- 25.0 VORP
2004 RP Kyle Farnsworth- 3.2 VORP
2004 RP Kent Mercker- 18.6 VORP
2004 RP Jon Leicaster- 6.4 VORP
2004 RP Mike Remlinger- 7.2 VORP
2004 RP Francis Beltran- 3.2 VORP

2004 RP Total VORP- 63.6

2003 RP- Kyle Farnsworth- 16.6 VORP
2003 RP- Mike Remlinger- 13.0 VORP
2003 RP- Joe Borowski- 19.6 VORP
2003 RP- Antonio Alfonseca- (-1.6) VORP
2003 RP- Juan Cruz- (-5.7) VORP
2003 RP- Mark Guthrie- 12.6 VORP

2003 RP Total VORP- 54.5

What?? The 2004 bullpen was actually better. They prevented 9.1 more runs (63.6-54.5).

So what made the 2004 Cubs worse than the 2003 Cubs? After looking at these numbers I figured it had to be some unknown factor, or player. I figured I can find this out by looking at the final 2003 and 2004 statistics, because these stats will account for all of the players that I did not include in my analysis.

Here are those numbers:

Offense

2004- .268/.328/.458, .786 OPS, 1080/489=(2.20) K/BB, 235 HR
2003- .259/.323/.416, .739 OPS, 1158/492=(2.35) K/BB, 172 HR

Pitching

2004- 3.81 ERA, 1346/545=(2.47) K/BB, 1.30 WHIP, 169 HR Allowed
2003- 3.83 ERA, 1404/617=(2.27) K/BB, 1.32 WHIP, 143 HR Allowed

These numbers do not provide an answer either.

The only category where last year's Cubs are substantially better are in HR allowed, they allowed 26 less HR.

Though this statistic is important, in my opinion, it is just a fragement of what is represented in ERA, and the 2004 Cubs are equal in that category.

It doesn't matter if your opponent, singles, doubles, triples, walks, or homers to get runs, all that matter is that they get runs. And opponents basically got the same amount of runs this year off the Cubs, as last year. (619 Earned Runs Allowed in 2003 vs. 621 Earned Runs Allowed in 2004)

So now, as a last resort, I checked Chicago's team pitching statistics for unearned runs to see if that was the cause for them not making the playoffs.

Here are those numbers:

2004- 665 Runs Against, 621 Earned Runs Against, 44 Unearned Runs Against(RA-ER Against)

2003- 683 Runs Against, 619 Earned Runs Against, 64 Unearned Runs Against.

No answer here, the 2004 Cubs were better again. Not just in unearned runs against, but total runs against.

There is no clear reason why the 2004 Cubs did not make the playoffs, and last year's team did. This makes no sense. So I have come to the conclusion that this must be just plain old bad luck for the 2004 Cubs.

To prove that they were cursed with horrible bad luck this year, I checked Baseball Prospectus for their Adjusted Standings.

To sum up what these adjusted standings show, they show how many games a team should have won and lost, based on their adjusted runs for and runs against. This report basically shows if a team is lucky, or unlucky.

If a team has won more games than their adjusted numbers suggest they should, the Delta (D3 in the standings) at the end of the report will be a positive number, indicating the number of games the team has won above what their adjusted record states. A team like that would be quote-unquote "lucky."

If a team (such as the 2004 Cubs) won less games than their adjusted record would show, the delta (D3) at the end of their report will show, with a negative number, how many games the team lost more than they should have. At team like this would be "unlucky."

Here is the Cubs 2004 Adjusted standings, and glossary, courtesy of Baseball Prospectus:

Team--W-----L
Cubs---88----73

RS------RA------W1------L1
779-----657-----93.2-----67.8

EQR---EQRA-----W2-----L2
799-----671------93.6-----67.4

AEQR-----AEQRA-----W3-----L3
784---------662-------93.1----67.9

--D1-----D2------D3
(-5.2)---(-5.6)---(-5.1)

Terms:

W, L : Actual team wins and losses.

RS, RA: Actual team runs scored and runs allowed.

W1, L1 ("First-order wins"): Pythagenport expected wins and losses, based onRS and RA.

EQR, EQRA: Equivalent runs scored and equivalent runs allowed (equivalent runs, generated from the opponent's batting line)

W2, L2 ("Second-order wins"): Pythagenport wins and losses, based on EQR andEQRA.

AEQR, AEQRA: EQR and EQRA, adjusted for strength of schedule: the quality of their opponent's pitching and hitting. If AEQR is higher than EQR,the team has faced better than average pitching; if AEQRA is higher than EQRA, the team has faced worse than average hitting.

W3, L3 ("Third-order wins"): Pythagenport wins and losses, based on AEQR and AEQRA.

D1, D2, D3: Deltas between actual wins and W1, W2, and W3. Positive numbers mean the team has won more games than expected from their statistics.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So there you have it. The Cubs lost 5 more games than they should have. (See D3) That's bad luck.

Usually, when comparing a team that did not make the postseason, to a team that did, there are defining statistics that will show why the first team was worse than the playoff team. For this year's Chicago Cubs though, there wasn't. As a matter of fact the 2004 Cubs were much better than the 2003 Cubs. They just had terrible, terrible luck.

I am sorry Cub fans. And I am sorry I cannot provide an answer.

I like to think of myself as someone who can come up with a better answer than "bad luck," but for this scenario, I cannot.

If any readers have a definite answer to this question, please write me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comment, concerns, or suggestions, or in this case, answers, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

A look at all of the AL MVP candidates (Popular and Not)

2004-10-04T21:43:00.000-04:00

Now that the season is over. Let's have a look at the final contenders for the American League MVP (not including pitchers). I will list all deserving candidates. The candidates will be broken down into two lists--Popular Choices and Not Popular Choices).

Popular Choices

Vladimir Guerrero(ANA) - .337/.391/.598, 15 SB, 3 CS, 83.3 SB%, 39 HR, 74/52(1.42) K/BB, .989 OPS, 93.2 VORP

Manny Ramirez(BOS) - .308/.397/.613, 2 SB, 4 CS, 33.3 SB%, 43 HR, 124/82(1.51) K/BB, 1.010 OPS, 70.0 VORP

David Ortiz(BOS) - .302/.380/.603, 0 SB, 0 CS, 0 SB%, 41 HR, 133/75(1.77) K/BB, .983 OPS, 73.1 VORP

Gary Sheffield(NYY) - .290/.393/.534, 5 SB, 6 CS, 45.5 SB%, 36 HR, 83/92(0.90) K/BB .927 OPS, 63.8 VORP

Not Popular Choices

Miguel Tejada(BAL) - .312/.360/.534, 4 SB, 1 CS, 80 SB%, 34 HR, 73/48(1.52) K/BB, .894 OPS, 79.1 VORP

Carlos Guillen(DET) - .318/.377/.542, 12 SB, 5 CS, 70.6 SB%, 20 HR, 87/52(1.67) K/BB, .919 OPS, 71.3 VORP

Alex Rodriguez(NYY) - .286/.375/.512, 28 SB, 4 CS, 87.5 SB%, 36 HR, 131/80(1.64) K/BB, .887 OPS, 63.0 VORP

Ichiro Suzuki(SEA)- .372/.413/.455, 36 SB, 11 CS, 76.6 SB%, 8 HR, 63/49(1.29) K/BB, .868 OPS, 79.2 VORP

Melvin Mora(BAL)- .340/.415/.562, 11 SB, 6 CS, 64.7 SB%, 27 HR, 95/66(1.44) K/BB, .977 OPS, 79.3 VORP

Travis Hafner(CLE)- .311/.408/.583, 3 SB, 2 CS, 60 SB%, 28 HR, 111/68(1.63) K/BB .991 OPS, 74.1 VORP

It is the author's opinion the most important statistic that will show you a players overall performance is VORP(Value Over Replacement Player). My reasons behind this are because VORP includes SB's, CS, SB%, Quality of Competition, and Ballpark Factors. As opposed too OPS (read on...).

The second most important stat in my opinion is OPS(On-Base+Slugging). This is pretty self expanatory, everything a hitter is trying to do at the plate is reflected in this statistic.

The system I used to determine my rankings was simple. I ranked the VORP, and OPS of each player 1-10 and awarded each player with a "ranking point" equal to the rank itself. Since I believe VORP is a more complete and valuable statistic, I weighted it to mean 1 and a half times more than OPS. After completing the rankings I added up each players "ranking points"to determine their total "MVP Points." Since a better ranking equals a lower number, a less amount of points would be the better.

****Since a less amount of points is better in this system, a player's VORP ranking was cut in half to determine how many "ranking points" he was given for VORP.****

Example: At 93.2 VORP, Vladimir Guerrero ranks #1 out of the 10 candidates, and with a .989 OPS he ranks #3. Since VORP is weighted to mean 1 and a half times as much as OPS, Guerrero's VORP ranking is multiplied by .5 to give him at total of .5 points in the VORP category, and 3 points in the OPS category for a total of 3.5 "MVP Points."

Here are my Rankings:

Rank. Player- VORP--"Ranking Points"
1. Guerrero- 93.2--.5

2. Mora- 79.3--1

3. Suzuki- 79.2--1.5

4. Tejada- 79.1--2

5. Hafner- 74.1--2.5

6. Ortiz- 73.1--3

7. Guillen- 71.3--3.5

8. Ramirez- 70--4

9. Sheffield- 63.8--4.5

10. Rodriguez- 63--5

Rank. Player- OPS--"Ranking Points"
1. Ramirez- 1.010--1

2. Hafner- .991--2

3. Guerrero- .989--3

4. Ortiz- .983--4

5. Mora- .977--5

6. Sheffield- .927--6

7. Guillen- .919--7

8. Tejada- .894--8

9. Rodriguez- .887--9

10. Suzuki- .868--10

Rank. Player- VORP + OPS "Ranking Points" = "MVP Points"
1. Guerrero- .5 + 3 = 3.5

2. Hafner- 2.5 + 2 = 4.5

3. Ramirez- 4 + 1 = 5

4. Mora- 1 + 5 = 6

5. Ortiz- 3 + 4 = 7

6. Tejada- 2 + 8 =10

7. Guillen- 3.5 + 7 = 10.5

8. Sheffield- 4.5 + 6 = 10.5

9. Suzuki- 1.5 + 10 = 11.5

10. Rodriguez- 5 + 9 = 14

Very surprising to see where Travis Hafner and Gary Sheffield end up, isn't it? Some say Sheffield is going to win the AL MVP, and Hafner isn't even mentioned. It can be seen earlier that Hafner is on the "Not Popular Choices" list.

And even when the argument of "the MVP has to be on a playoff team" is used, Sheffield ranks fourth among the players that are on Playoff teams (Guerrero, Ramirez, Ortiz, and Sheffield).

So as it ends up, Vladimir Guerrero of the Anaheim Angels wins the AL MVP according the Serious Baseball.

What a great first year in Anaheim, huh??

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

World Series Prediction (Part 4 - Astros)

2004-09-29T21:50:00.000-04:00

When I originally wrote my "World Series Prediction" articles, I left the Houston Astros out of that analysis but said that if they got to within one half game of the NL wild card, I would perform the necessary analysis on them. Well here it is, September 29, and the Astros are one half game behind the Cubs for the Wild Card.

So as promised, here is their analysis comparing them to the Average World Series Champion of the past three years (AWSC).

****Please read the previous installments of "World Series Predictions", if you haven't already, to find out what I am analyzing, and comparing. And to find out what numbers I used in the comparison. Basically... one must at least glance through the previous articles to find out the "who, what, where, when, why, and how" of this article.****

Category (AWSC)-Team/Stat(Number)/Points/

Career Year Players (8)--Hou/3/-1
Career Year Pitchers (5)-Hou/1/-1
Career Year Hitters (3)--Hou/2/-1

Breakout Year Players (6)--Hou/1/-1
Breakout Year Pitchers (4)--Hou/1/-1
Breakout Year Hitters (2)--Hou/0/-1

Players +70 VORP (1)--Hou/2/+1
Players +60 VORP (1)--Hou/3/+1
Players +50 VORP (2)--Hou/3/+1
Players +40 VORP (5)--Hou/5/0
Players +35 VORP (7)--Hou/7/0

Pitchers +70 VORP (1)--Hou/0/-1
Pitchers +60 VORP (1)--Hou/1/0
Pitchers +50 VORP (1)--Hou/1/0
Pitchers +40 VORP (2)--Hou/2/0
Pitchers +35 VORP (3)--Hou/3/0

Hitters +70 VORP (0)--Hou/2/+1
Hitters +60 VORP (0)--Hou/2/+1
Hitters +50 VORP (1)--Hou/2/+1
Hitters +40 VORP (3)--Hou/3/0
Hitters +35 VORP (4)--Hou/4/0

Offensive Team Stats

AVG (.272)---Hou/.266/0
OBP (.338)---Hou/.342/0
SLG (.432)---Hou/.434/0
HITS (1519)--Hou/1451/-1/
HR (172)---Hou/181/0
K (945)----Hou/997/-1/
BB (521)---Hou/588/+1
XBH (512)--Hou/512/0
ISOP (.160)--Hou/.167/0
SECA (.264)--Hou/.285/+1
BB/K (0.55)--Hou/0.59/0
RUNS (807)---Hou/794/-1

Pitching Teams Stats

ERA (3.87)--Hou/4.08/-1/
BAA (.251)--Hou/.258/0
K/9 (7.07)--Hou/7.93/+1
K/BB (2.29)--Hou/2.40/+1
WHIP (1.29)--Hou/1.35/0
OBP (.315)---Hou/.325/0
SLG (.397)---Hou/.417/-1
K (1143)---Hou/1264/+1
BB (500)--Hou/526/-1
HR (192)--Hou/174/+1

Career Year Players for Houston(2004 prorated VORP 13 or more runs above career average VORP)

--------Breakout Year indicated in bold (Career Year with less than 3 QY)----------

Team- Player/2004 prorated VORP-Career Average VORP

Houston- Berkman/81.3-62.45, Beltran/71.0-43.54, Lidge/37.8-17.0

Players over 35 VORP for Houston(VORP is prorated)

Houston- Bagwell-36.0, Berkman-81.3, Kent-46.8, Beltran-71.0, Lidge-37.8, Clemens-63.1, Oswalt-49.7

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total Similarity Points for Houston- (-1)

Here is Houston's total similarity points stacked against the other National League Playoff contenders similarity points (as figured out in earlier articles).

------Point totals closest to zero indicates more similarity to AWSC. Negative point totals indicate that team is worse than AWSC. Positive point totals indicate team is better than AWSC.-------------

St. Louis- 4
Los Angeles- (-6)
Atlanta- (-7)
Chicago- 9
San Francisco- (-5)
Houston- (-1)

As we can see, Houston is now the closest to the AWSC, they are a little worse than the AWSC, but they are closer. Because of this, I change my prediction to the Houston Astros as the team to represent the National League in the World Series.

Obviously, this prediction can only become true if Houston does make the playoffs. If they do not, my prediction will return to St. Louis as of the beginning of the playoffs (based on similarity points closest to zero).

For the current moment in time (September, 29 2004 @ 6:53 PM EST) though, I am predicting an Astros vs. Yankees World Series.

As for my prediction of the winner of the World Series, that goes to the Yankees.

The Yankees Total Similarity points = 1.

I know that both the Astros and Yankees are equal distances from zero, but since the Yankees are one point away from zero on the positive side, as opposed to the Astros being only one point away on the negative side of zero, I have to go with the Yankees as the winner, because they are a better team according to this comparison.

Now the analysis is complete.

Final Predictions

National League Champion= Houston Astros (if they make playoffs, if not, my prediction is St. Louis)

American League Champion= New York Yankees

World Series Champion= New York Yankees (I predict the Yankees will beat either Houston, or St. Louis.)

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

Did the O's get what they paid For???

2004-09-24T17:14:00.000-04:00

We all know that last year, Javy Lopez of the Atlanta Braves had a career year. The numbers he put up in 2003 were .328/.378/.687, 90/33 (2.72) K/BB, 3.56 Pitches/PA, and 43 HR. No doubt these were amazing numbers, which earned him a huge contract from Peter Angelos and the Orioles which had him switch leagues, and play catcher in Baltimore.

Now since I am not a GM (but would love to be one), I cannot possibly fathom what Angelos, and the Orioles' GM's Mike Flanagan, and Jim Beattie were expecting out of Lopez this year. Although I can sleep well at night knowing that they definitely DID NOT expect a repeat of Lopez's 2003. I believe they would expect Lopez to "split the difference" of his 2003, and his career averages. So after doing the math, and comparing Lopez's career averages, including 2003, to his 2003 campaign with Atlanta, I came up with what I believe the Baltimore organization would expect from Lopez in 2004.

First here are Javy Lopez's career averages after 2003 (before 2004 season began):

.287 AVG/.337 OBP/.502 SLG,
728/271 (2.69) K/BB,
3.39 Pitches/PA
18 HR

Now, taking his career totals in all the necessary statistical categories, figuring out the difference between those numbers and his 2003 season, then dividing the difference by two; I came up with a season that "split the difference" between his 2003, and his career average year. This would be Lopez's "expected year" in 2004:

.311 AVG/ .360 OBP/ .596 SLG
76/28 (2.71) K/BB
3.49 Pitches/PA
31 HR

Here is the year that Lopez put up in 2004 (prorated for the last week of the season):

.314 AVG/ .369 OBP/ .490 SLG
98/49 (2.00) K/BB
3.45 Pitches/PA
21 HR

We can see that Lopez definitely met his expected levels of AVG, and Pitches/PA, but he came up short on HR and SLG, but significantly improved his K/BB, and improved his OBP.

So now back to the question at hand, "Did the O's get what they paid for?" I believe the answer is no. While it is nice to have a better K/BB, and OBP than expected, I do not believe that this made up for the drop in Lopez's expected HR and SLG.

----This answer CAN change over the course of the next few years, obviously--

I'm sure that Baltimore would trade Lopez's 2.00 K/BB (which is the reason for his higher OBP), for a 2.71 K/BB if he were to get .106 more points of SLG (.596-.490), and 10 more HR (31-21) out of Lopez.

Basically what I am saying is that Lopez was expected to put up a .956 OPS, but put up a .859 OPS, which is much closer to his career average of .839 OPS. While this is a great OPS, Lopez always kept that high OPS by having that .502 career SLG in his back pocket-- not by having a .369 OBP (2004).

The way in which Lopez put up that .859 OPS, is not what I believe Baltimore wanted. Although, the OPS is there, and I guess that is all that matters.

Lopez is putting up this OPS more like a number 2 hitter would, rather than the way a number 3-4-or 5 hitter would.

This is not to say that Javy Lopez is not having a great year, just a year that is less than what was expected.

Next year could be a great year for Lopez though, because this is the first year that he has displayed great plate discipline, as seen by his K/BB ratio, and that kind of discipline usually leads to great years.

Like I said earlier, I'm sure Peter Angelos and the rest of Baltimore would have taken a free-swinging Javy Lopez who put up a number closer to his career .502 SLG, than this ever-patient Javy Lopez who hit 12 points below his career SLG and 109 points lower than his expected SLG.

Remember, the value of Lopez as an Oriole cannot be fully measured until the end of his contract there.

Thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comment, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me @ frnkbndy@yahoo.com.

World Series Prediction (Part 3)

2004-09-18T21:57:00.000-04:00

Welcome Back!! Thank you to those who waited patiently while I conducted research on the National League Playoff contenders.

As of the moment I am writing this article, the legitimate playoff contenders in the NL are Atlanta, Los Angeles, St. Louis, San Francisco, Chicago, and Houston. Of these six contenders, I have decided to analyze the first five in an effort to keep the analysis focused on the teams with the best chance; and right now with Houston being 1 1/2 games behind San Francisco and Chicago for the Wildcard, I have decided to leave them out--FOR NOW. If Houston gets within a half game, I will conduct the necessary research and include them in the analysis.

So let's quickly catch up. I am comparing each playoff contender in each league to the Average World Series Champion (AWSC) of the past three years (2001 Arizona Diamondbacks, 2002 Anaheim Angels, and the 2003 Florida Marlins).

The complete details of the analysis are in part one of the article, while the American League portion of this analysis is in part two. Please read these articles, if you haven't already--or this article and analysis will make not make any sense!!.

As seen in part two, I have predicted the New York Yankees to represent the American League in the World Series in 2004 because of how much more they are similar to the AWSC than any of the other AL playoff contenders.

Now to the National League.

Here are the numbers presented as they were for the AL teams:

Category (AWSC)-Team/Stat(Number)/Points/

Career Year Players (8)--StL/6/-1/---LA/9/+1/---Atl/5/-1/---Chc/6/-1/---SF/5/-1/
Career Year Pitchers (5)-StL/2/-1/---LA/5/0/---Atl/3/-1/---Chc/2/-1/---SF/1/-1/
Career Year Hitters (3)--StL/4/+1/---LA/4/+1/---Atl/2/-1/---Chc/4/+1/---SF/4/+1/

Breakout Year Players (6)--StL/2/-1/--LA/4/-1/--Atl/2/-1/--Chc/4/-1/---SF/1/-1/
Breakout Year Pitchers (4)--StL/1/-1/--LA/1/-1/--Atl/1/-1/--Chc/1/-1/--SF/0/-1/
Breakout Year Hitters (2)--StL/1/-1/---LA/3/+1/---Atl/1/-1/---Chc/3/+1/---SF/1/-1/

Players +70 VORP (1)--StL/3/+1/---LA/1/0/---Atl/1/0/---Chc/0/-1/---SF/1/0/
Players +60 VORP (1)--StL/3/+1/---LA/1/0/---Atl/1/0/---Chc/1/0/---SF/2/+1/
Players +50 VORP (2)--StL/3/+1/---LA/2/0/---Atl/1/-1/---Chc/4/+1/---SF/3/+1/
Players +40 VORP (5)--StL/5/0/---LA/5/0/---Atl/4/-1/---Chc/7/+1/---SF/3/-1/
Players +35 VORP (7)--StL/5/-1/---LA/6/-1/---Atl/7/0/---Chc/9/+1/---SF/3/-1/

Pitchers +70 VORP (1)--StL/0/-1/---LA/0/-1/---Atl/0/-1/---Chc/0/-1/---SF/0/-1/
Pitchers +60 VORP (1)--StL/0/-1/---LA/0/-1/---Atl/0/-1/---Chc/1/0/---SF/1/0/
Pitchers +50 VORP (1)--StL/0/-1/---LA/1/0/---Atl/0/-1/---Chc/1/0/---SF/1/0/
Pitchers +40 VORP (2)--StL/2/0/---LA/3/+1/---Atl/0/-1/---Chc/3/+1/---SF/1/-1/
Pitchers +35 VORP (3)--StL/2/-1/---LA/3/0/---Atl/2/-1/---Chc/3/0/---SF/1/-1/

Hitters +70 VORP (0)--StL/3/+1/---LA/1/+1/---Atl/1/+1/---Chc/0/0/---SF/1/+1/
Hitters +60 VORP (0)--StL/3/+1/---LA/1/+1/---Atl/1/+1/---Chc/0/0/---SF/1/+1/
Hitters +50 VORP (1)--StL/3/+1/---LA/1/0/---Atl/1/0/---Chc/3/+1/---SF/2/+1/
Hitters +40 VORP (3)--StL/3/0/---LA/2/-1/---Atl/4/+1/---Chc/4/+1/---SF/2/-1/
Hitters +35 VORP (4)--StL/3/-1/---LA/3/-1/---Atl/5/+1/---Chc/6/+1/---SF/2/-1/

Offensive Team Stats

AVG (.272)---StL/.277/0/---LA/.266/0/---Atl/.273/0/---Chc/.271/0/---SF/.269/0/
OBP (.338)---StL/.344/0/---LA/.335/0/---Atl/.345/0/---Chc/.328/0/---SF/.357/+1/
SLG (.432)---StL/.464/+1/---LA/.428/0/---Atl/.438/0/---Chc/.464/+1/---SF/.438/0/
HITS (1519)--StL/1543/+1/--LA/1480/-1/--Atl/1561/+1/--Chc/1534/+1/--SF/1561/+1/
HR (172)---StL/187/+1/---LA/204/+1/---Atl/184/+1/---Chc/240/+1/---SF/194/+1/
K (945)----StL/1065/-1/---LA/1072/-1/---Atl/1192/-1/---Chc/1083/-1/---SF/895/+1/
BB (521)---StL/550/+1/---LA/522/0/---Atl/597/+1/---Chc/465/-1/---SF/745/+1/
XBH (512)--StL/573/+1/---LA/459/-1/---Atl/543/+1/---Chc/582/+1/---SF/557/+1/
ISOP (.160)--StL/.186/+1/---LA/.162/0/---Atl/.165/0/---Chc/.193/+1/---SF/.169/0/
SECA (.264)--StL/.297/+1/---LA/.268/0/---Atl/.277/+1/---Chc/.282/+1/---SF/.301/+1/
BB/K (0.55)---StL/0.52/0/---LA/0.49/0/---Atl/0.50/0/---Chc/0.43/-1/---SF/0.83/+1/
RUNS (807)---StL/870/+1/---LA/770/-1/---Atl/825/+1/---Chc/812/+1/---SF/812/+1/

Pitching Teams Stats

ERA (3.87)--StL/3.74/+1/---LA/3.85/0/---Atl/3.73/+1/---Chc/3.81/0/---SF/4.38/-1/
BAA (.251)--StL/.251/0/---LA/.249/0/---Atl/.265/-1/---Chc/.250/0/---SF/.268/-1/
K/9 (7.07)--StL/6.34/-1/---LA/6.62/-1/---Atl/6.35/-1/---Chc/8.10/+1/---SF/6.29/-1/
K/BB (2.29)--StL/2.36/0/---LA/2.19/-1/---Atl/1.93/-1/---Chc/2.37/0/---SF/1.86/-1/
WHIP (1.29)--StL/1.24/0/---LA/1.27/0/---Atl/1.38/0/---Chc/1.32/0/---SF/1.41/-1/
OBP (.315)---StL/.308/0/---LA/.312/0/---Atl/.325/0/---Chc/.320/0/---SF/.331/-1/
SLG (.397)---StL/.403/0/---LA/.399/0/---Atl/.398/0/---Chc/.398/0/---SF/.426/-1/
K (1143)---StL/1029/-1/---LA/1072/-1/---Atl/1048/-1/---Chc/1326/+1/---SF/1062/-1/
BB (500)--StL/435/+1/---LA/495/0/---Atl/543/-1/---Chc/559/-1/---SF/559/-1/
HR (192)--StL/177/+1/---LA/171/+1/---Atl/158/+1/---Chc/168/+1/---SF/163/+1/

Career Year Players by Team (2004 prorated VORP 13 or more runs above career average VORP)
--------Breakout Year indicated in bold (Career Year with less than 3 QY)----------

Team- Player/2004 prorated VORP-Career Average VORP

St. Louis- Pujols/103.2-88.47, Womack/29.8-16.47, Rolen/83.8-55.9, Edmonds, 100.2-61.94, Carpenter, 49.1-15.33, Marquis/48.2-12.95

Los Angeles- Izturis/29.7-(-7.35), Beltre/93.9-25.98, Cora/17.6-0.03, Choi/26.6-NQY, Penny-45.1-21.55, Perez/50.4-21.22, D. Sanchez/19.1-NQY, Weaver/45.1-28.06, Lima/29.5-10.47

Atlanta- Drew/85.4-31.35, Estrada/44.8-NQY, Cruz/23.8-(-1.45), Wright/39.7-7.65, Thomson/25.9-6.6

Chicago- Patterson/44.1-10.8, Lee/58.3-34.38, Ramirez/55.5-32.73, Barrett 37.4-15.73, Zambrano/60.0-15.35, Clement/47.4-21.48

San Francisco- Feliz/19.3-NQY, Tucker/23.0-9.48, Bonds/152.5-82.59, Snow/50.3/20.42, Schmidt/62.9-26.0

Players over 35 VORP by Team (VORP is prorated)

St. Louis- Pujols-103.2, Rolen-83.8, Edmonds-100.2, Carpenter-49.1, Marquis-48.2

Los Angeles- Beltre-93.9, Green-35.9, Finley-43.0, Penny-45.1, Perez-50.4, Weaver-45.1

Atlanta- A. Jones-45.8, Furcal-46.7, Drew-85.4, Estrada-44.8, C. Jones-39.5, Wright-39.7, Ortiz-38.1

Chicago- Patterson-44.1, Lee-58.3, Alou-52.3, Ramirez-55.5, Sosa-35.1, Barret-37.4, Zambrano-60.0, Maddux-46.4, Clement-47.4

San Francisco- Bonds-152.5, Snow-50.3, Schmidt-62.9

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total Similarity Points By Team

------------Point totals closest to zero indicates more similarity to AWSC. Negative point totals indicate that team is worse than AWSC. Positive point totals indicate team is better than AWSC.------------------

St. Louis- 4
Los Angeles- (-6)
Atlanta- (-7)
Chicago- 9
San Francisco- (-5)

The most similar team to the AWSC is obviously St. Louis. But again, the problem that arose in part 2 of this article with the Boston Redsox, and the Oakland A's, has risen again in the National League portion of the article.

The Cubs are much better compared the the AWSC than the Cardinals, but again--like with the Yankees, the Cardinals are the most similar team to the the AWSC, so I predict them to win the National League.

The Cardinals get picked for the same reason the Yankees did in the American League--the best team going in to the playoffs, doesn't always win the playoffs. This has been shown very clearly the past three years by the Diamondbacks, Angels, and Marlins.

So the best team in the AL was Boston, and in the NL it was Chicago. But they WERE NOT the most similar to the AWSC so my prediction for the World Series is the New York Yankees vs. St. Louis Cardinals.

And based on the points awarded in this system I predict the winner of the World Series to be the New York Yankees. The Yankees total 1 similarity point (remember, closest to zero means more similarity to AWSC), while the Cardinals totaled 4 points.

So that's it, there's my prediction. I know everyone that is reading this is thinking, "It doesn't take a genius to predict that the team that currently has the best records both leagues, will make the World Series." And everyone is right. But the difference between my prediction of the Cards vs Yanks is that mine is based on a completely different basis. Which is NOT their respective Win-Loss records. My prediction is based on how similar each of these teams are to the Average World Series Champion of the past three years.

Again, thank you for reading.

Frank Bundy III

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.